The low overall snowfall totals for NYC yesterday wasn’t so much a problem as the significant icing that resulted from an extended period of freezing rain. Ironically, a week the city government took criticism for shutting down the transit system for blockbuster blizzard that did not come to pass here, it was 1/4″ coating of ice that wreaked havoc on the entire transit system (the hours long complete suspension of the 7 train was an extreme example of this). We do get a couple more shots at snow, once tomorrow night into Thursday, and then again during the weekend, but at this time neither event looks to be nearly as high impact as what we’ve experienced the last two weeks.
Wednesday – will be comparatively mild in the context of the rest of the week and the weather we’ve had recently. High temperatures may actually even hit 40 (slightly above normal). However, as a cold front approaches from the west, we’ll have an increasing chance for snow showers, which maybe mixed with rain at the coast during the earlier part of the evening.
Thursday – chance for snow showers continues along the vicinity of the frontal boundary as it passes over us. Following the passage of that cold front, temperatures take a serious drop as northwest winds allow for Arctic air to make a comeback into the area. Lows overnight Thursday could be as low as the single digits for the city and below zero for outlying suburbs. Coupled with a northwest wind of 15-20mph, this would produce dangerously cold wind chill values.
Friday – high pressure builds in briefly for Friday, giving us the only guaranteed dry day through the forecast period. It will still be cold with highs only in the low 20s.
Saturday – an arctic front will be approaching during the day Saturday, and ahead of the front, we’ll actually about normal temperatures in the upper 30s due to southwest flow. Clouds build in and the chance for snow showers builds during the later part of the day into the overnight.
Sunday – the arctic front mentioned above moves over us but then it looks like it will stall in our vicinity for an extended period from Sunday into Monday. High temperatures will cool to around freezing in the wake of that frontal passage.
At this time, it’s too early to know exactly how much snow we would pick up. It does appear that the precipitation with this system will be generally on the lighter side, except as the low pressure center depicted over southern Illinois in the graphic below approaches the coast. Once it arrives just west of the coast, it could draw in some moisture off the ocean as the counterclockwise cyclonic flow around the eastern periphery of the low induces an extended period of onshore flow (like a sea breeze, except in this case, the air over the water is actually warmer than it is over the snowpack on the land). If this onshore flow is robust enough, it could warm coastal areas up enough to get some rain out of the storm.
