During my time taking classes as part of Penn State University’s Undergraduate Certificate in Weather Forecasting, we were taught that understanding the climatology of the location you are interested in is an important prerequisite for making accurate forecasts. This post continues on this theme, adding a climatology for October.

Other Month’s Climatologies

January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
November
December

Station Basic Information

City Name / Station ID: New York, NY (LaGuardia Airport – KLGA)

Local Geography and Topography

Station Elevation: 10 feet above sea level.

Station Location: LaGuardia Airport (KLGA) is situated on the north shore of Queens along the East River, approximately 6 miles east-northeast of Midtown Manhattan.

Important Topographical Features: New York City is located in the extreme southeastern corner of New York State, bordering suburban New Jersey and Connecticut. These suburban regions combined with those in Long Island comprise the Greater New York City Metropolitan Area, which is the most populous urban agglomeration in the United States and one of the populous urbanized areas in the world with an estimated population of 18 million. New York City itself sprawls across the coastal plain around the Hudson River estuary. The terminal moraine formed by glaciers of the last Ice Age result in a ridge of higher terrain that cuts a swath from southwest to northeast across the boroughs from northern Staten Island, northern Brooklyn, southwestern through central and northeastern Queens. Otherwise, the city itself is low lying. This ridge varies in height between 200-400 feet, rising sharply from south to north, but tapering more gently north. North and west of the city (about 30-50 miles away), lie significant elevations of the Catskills (north), Poconos (west), Taconics that are part of the broader Appalachian Mountain Range. The elevations of the lower foothills can range from 1000-1500 feet. Some of the elevations in the Poconos and Catskills, west and north of KLGA respectively, peak between 2000-3000 feet. The open expanse of the Atlantic Ocean lies south of KLGA and New York City. Long Island Sound also lies east-northeast. The vast urbanized area of the NYC metropolitan region has significant effects on local microclimates via differential heating (urban heat island effect). KLGA is in a low-lying area sensitive to UHI effects and marine influences.

Per the Local Climatological Data report from the National Weather Service:

On winter mornings, ocean temperatures which are warm relative to the land reinforce the effect of the city heat island and low temperatures are often 10-20 degrees lower in the inland suburbs than in the central city. The relatively warm water temperatures also delay the advent of winter snows. Conversely, the lag in warming of water temperatures keeps spring temperatures relatively cool. One year-round measure of the ocean influence is the small average daily variation in temperature.

National Weather Service – NYC Office

Wind Patterns

Below is a wind rose – you can read more about how to interpret this chart here.

Frequency (percentage) of the single most common wind direction: Due southwest (9%). Note: due northeast is basically co-equal most common wind direction, perhaps only off by a fraction of a percentage point.

Directions that are most and least common: Other most common wind directions include due northeast (9%), due northwest (8.75%), and west-northwest (8.25%). Least common wind directions are east-southeast (1.8%), due southeast (2.75%), and due east (3%).

Direction(s) most likely to produce the fastest winds: Winds of 16.5-21.4 knots are most frequently found coming from due northwest. West-northwest, north-northwest, due northeast, east-northeast, and due south directions can also see less frequent winds over 21.4 knots.

Direction(s) least likely to produce the fastest winds: As is the case with several other months, the least common wind directions of due east, east-southeast, and due southeast also rarely seen winds in excess of 16.4 knots.

Impacts of wind direction on local weather: October’s wind profile is a continuation on the trend established in September where wind frequencies begin to be distributed more evenly across the compass and less focused in the south. Winds from the northwest quadrant continue to increase in frequency, along with the frequency of the fastest winds coming from these directions. Northeasterly winds still figure prominently, though slightly less so than in September. Curiously, while southerly winds generally decreased in frequency, due southwest winds tick up slightly compared to September.

In general, northwesterly winds bring cooler, drier Canadian air into the region following cold fronts. Northwesterly winds will tend to warm slightly because of compressional warming as they downslope coming off the higher terrain of the Catskills, and Poconos outside of the city. This can sometimes lead to warmer temperatures than would normally be expected for this wind direction.

Northeasterly winds, on the other hand, are often related to backdoor cold fronts sweeping from the Canadian Maritimes, the onshore flow ahead of an advancing warm front, or a passing coastal storm to the south. Southwesterly winds are still capable of bringing in oppressive heat, as seen in the temperature section below.

Maximum observed two-minute wind speed for the month: 56 knots (64 mph) – this is the fastest recorded two-minute wind speed for any calendar month.

Temperature and Precipitation Averages/Records

Temperature units are in Fahrenheit and precipitation is in inches.

Worth noting: Even though average high temperatures in October fall into the 60s, it’s still possible to see summer-like warmth – you can see this from the record high of 95°F, set anew in 2019, and that record highs can reach into the mid-80s until late in the month. Overnight lows start to fall into the 50s and end up in the 40s by the end of the month!

Date	Normal High	Normal Low	Record High	Record Low	Record Lowest Max	Record Highest Min	Normal Precip	Record Precip
1	71	56	87	39	54	73	0.13	2.24
2	70	56	95	42	56	72	0.12	1.15
3	70	56	85	40	49	69	0.12	1.07
4	70	55	86	38	53	73	0.12	1.05
5	69	55	93	38	49	69	0.13	1.58
6	69	54	92	40	54	70	0.12	1.69
7	68	54	85	40	52	72	0.12	3.44
8	68	54	89	40	46	71	0.13	3.51
9	68	53	85	40	51	71	0.13	2.00
10	67	53	89	36	47	71	0.13	2.26
11	67	53	86	36	49	71	0.13	2.59
12	67	52	86	41	52	68	0.12	4.39
13	66	52	86	39	51	70	0.12	1.63
14	66	52	82	40	51	70	0.13	1.66
15	66	51	83	39	48	68	0.13	2.55
16	65	51	82	39	49	63	0.12	1.71
17	65	51	83	38	49	66	0.12	0.95
18	64	50	82	35	47	68	0.12	1.33
19	64	50	86	32	42	68	0.12	3.62
20	64	50	79	32	44	65	0.12	2.36
21	63	49	82	33	46	64	0.12	1.81
22	63	49	83	33	48	65	0.13	2.15
23	63	49	86	32	41	67	0.12	2.47
24	62	48	80	30	50	67	0.12	1.43
25	62	48	78	37	47	61	0.12	1.52
26	62	48	76	34	41	65	0.12	3.30
27	61	48	79	33	43	66	0.11	1.76
28	61	47	80	33	45	63	0.12	2.84
29	61	47	77	33	42	63	0.11	2.78
30	60	47	81	35	45	65	0.11	1.18
31	60	46	81	33	44	62	0.12	3.30
Range	60-71	46-56	76-93	30-42	41-56	61-73	0.11-0.13	0.95-4.39