Although tropical storm warnings are still up for the five boroughs, coastal Connecticut, Long Island, and New Jersey, it appears at this time that the threat from Hermine is diminishing. The center of Hermine is now located well out into the Atlantic Ocean, and even if it does make its eventual turn to the north and northwest, it will be far enough east of us that most impacts should be on the moderate side.

Rest of today – over the last few days, Hermine has continuously trended east of the official National Hurricane Center forecast track, and has still not made a turn to the north or northwest. It is still forecast to make that turn today, bringing it closer to shore, and increasing clouds in the area. Winds should pick up as well, with high temperatures around 80ºF.

Labor Day (Monday) – assuming that Hermine does make its projected turn towards the coast, Monday would entail a chance for rain, as well as strong winds, possibly approaching tropical storm force. High temperatures are only expected to reach into the upper-70s in this scenario. Could be a tough day for the Caribbean Day Parade.

Personally, I do not believe Hermine will produce tropical storm conditions (sustained wind greater than 39mph, less than 74mph). during this time, the confidence in this track forecast has been low, and any turn towards the coast has yet to verify. That said, nothing about this complex storm would be surprising, and a shift in storm track 50-60 miles west could dramatically increase the likelihood of the city receiving tropical storm conditions. Primary impacts will still be moderate to major coastal flooding with multiple tide cycles of storm surge and large waves leading to serious beach erosion in some places.

Tuesday – could end up being a pretty decent day if Hermine is further off to the east at this point. If that happens, we’ll probably see decreasing clouds and improving conditions with high temperatures in the mid-upper 80s. If Hermine sticks around, then we could see another day of wind and rain.

Will be posting another update tomorrow.