After a gloomy, but appropriately fall-like start October, this week looks like it will bring much improved weather. Temperatures are expected to be just below or at normal for the majority of the week. The big question mark in the long-term for weather in our region is the progress of Hurricane Matthew, which could impact the area this coming weekend.

Tuesday – mostly cloudy to start with gradual clearing and high temperatures in the upper-60s.

Wednesday – mostly sunny with high temperatures in the upper-60s. High pressure anchored over southeastern Canada will give us an extended period of nice weather.

Thursday – sunny, warmer with high temperatures in the low-70s.

Friday – sunny, with high temperatures in the low-70s.

Hurricane Matthew an Increasing Threat to the US East Coast

Hurricane Matthew poses an imminent and possibly catastrophic threat to Haiti, and portions of Eastern Cuba. Heavy rains from rain bands associated with the storm have already begun falling over Hispaniola and have hit Jamaica as well. Matthew is a potent Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds at 140mph. It is expected to bring rainfall of 8-20″ across the region, with some places receive 7-11′ of storm surge.

Matthew has displayed a number of anomalous characteristics that have defied forecasters and experts best efforts at predicting its intensity. Matthew underwent a period of rapid intensification, going from tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane with 160mph winds in just under 36 hours. This puts Matthew in an exclusive circle of just a handful of storms in recorded history that have accomplished this feat. Even more amazing, Matthew underwent this rapid intensification in the face of strong southwesterly wind shear that would typically stall a storm’s growth or weaken it.

During much of its life, a large area of intense thunderstorms has accompanied Matthew, at times exceeding the actual storm center in size. Scientists are uncertain as yet what role this feature had in Matthew’s unusual intensification. This feature has been impacting Hispaniola.

Outlook for Hurricane Matthew

Matthew is expected to either skirt the extreme southwest peninsula of Haiti or make landfall there, then perhaps a secondary landfall on Eastern Cuba. The more interaction Matthew’s circulation has with the high terrain of these regions, the weaker it will get before entering the wide open, and warm waters of the Bahamas. It is expected to maintain major hurricane status (maximum sustained winds greater than 115mph) throughout most of the 4-5 forecast period.

Since even earlier today, major forecast models have come into much better agreement about the path of Matthew in the longer term. The unfortunate news is that the models have settled on solutions that push Matthew further to the west than previous runs. This dramatically increases the chances of a landfall somewhere on the Southeastern US, with Florida also in the range of possible tracks. Should this scenario unfold, we would be spared from a direct landfall here, but would still receive a storm of considerable strength with strong winds and heavy rains possible.