The main weather headline for this weekend was going to be about possible impacts from Hurricane Matthew. I’m glad to report it now appears the storm will miss us, but the good news for us translates for doubly bad news for Florida. We went from a possible hurricane/tropical storm impact this weekend to a weekend where we expect to see some decent, fall-like weather.

Rest of today – sunny with a high temperature in the low-70s.

Friday – sunny, slightly warmer with highs in the mid-70s. High pressure remains anchored over the area, blocking the progress of Matthew northward, and also giving us great weather.

Saturday – a cold front will approach from the west, clouds will increase overnight and there is a chance for rain on Saturday. Mostly cloudy otherwise with highs in the low-70s. Part of the reason Matthew is expected to miss the Northeast is because this frontal boundary was faster to approach than was forecast earlier. This means it will have a role in pushing Matthew out to sea, instead of lifting it north towards the coast here.

Sunday – noticeably cooler with below average high temperatures only in the mid-60s and skies clearing.

Hurricane Matthew No Longer a Threat to the Northeast – Could Hit Florida Twice

As of 11AM EDT, the National Hurricane Center‘s advisory showed that Hurricane Matthew had restrengthened into a robust Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds of 140mph. It had just moved past New Providence island in the Bahamas moving northwest at 14mph, having avoiding a direct landfall on the highly populated island where the capital Nassau sits. However, as we get more information in, it’s becoming clear that some areas of Haiti really got the worst case scenario. This video footage from the small town of Jeremie on the northern side of the western tip of the Tiburon Peninsula shows the catastrophic damage Matthew caused. Jeremie took a direct hit from the storm’s northeastern eyewall, the strongest part of the storm, as Matthew made landfall on Haiti as a Category 4 with 145mph winds. This gives you an idea of the raw power of the storm that’s now headed for Florida.

Outlook for Matthew

Luckily for us, long-range forecast models show that Matthew no longer poses a threat to the Northeast. The flip side is that a fairly unprecedented scenario might befall Florida. Some models are suggesting that after Matthew moves offshore of the Carolinas, it may execute a large cyclonic loop, with the possibility of making a second landfall on South Florida later next week, albeit as a much weaker storm. First, Floridians all up and down the east coast, will have to contend with a dangerous Category 4 storm scraping along the shore or maybe making direct landfall. The coast scraper scenario would result in worse outcomes for Georgia and South Carolina, since reduced interaction with land will mean a stronger storm, as well as higher storm surge.