Monthly Archives: February 2017

NYC Weather Update – Feb 27, 2017

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The beginning of this week will somewhat echo the end of last week, with temperatures starting off on the cooler side, then ramping up before the passage of a cold front that could also bring some thunderstorms. After this cold front passes, temperatures take a dive closer to normal levels.

Rest of today – increasing clouds will cap temperatures in the low-50s.

Tuesday – warmer but with increasing chances for rain during the day. High temperatures in the upper-50s.

Wednesday – during the early morning hours, a warm front associated with a low pressure center moving across southern Ontario will push through. This will set the stage for possibly record-breaking warmth during the day. Southwest flow will allow temperatures to steadily climb into the upper-60s and possibly over 70°F. Later in the day, a trailing cold front will make its approach. This will serve as a trigger for showers and thunderstorms to develop late in the day and into the early overnight hours. Some of the storms could approach marginally severe criteria.

Thursday – following the cold front passing through, winds shift to the northwest. This will result in much cooler temperatures dropping through the day into the upper-40s.

 

Cooler Weather Ahead

Looking ahead to the mid-month period, it does appear we may see some cooler than normal temperatures prior to the formal onset of spring.

NYC Weekend Weather – Feb 24, 2017

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Enjoy the spring like temperatures while they last. A strong cold front is set to pass through the area late Saturday. Behind this front, temperatures will return to the low-50s, and perhaps colder. Looking ahead for the next week or so, it appears we will see a cyclical pattern of warm weather ahead of storm systems followed by a rush of colder air.

Rest of today – mild, clear skies, high temperatures have already hit nearly 70°F. Overnight, temperatures drop into the low-50s.

Saturday – still quite warm, near 60°F, but with overcast skies and chances for precipitation ramping up through the afternoon hours. A line of moderate to heavy rain is expected to pass through sometime in the early evening hours. Some thunderstorms may be possible with this line of storms.

Sunday – behind this cold front Saturday, temperatures crash back to normal in the mid-40s wtih sunny skies.

Monday – slightly warmer, mostly sunny, with high pressure in control. High around 50°F.

NYC Weather Update – Feb 20, 2017

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This week will see a marked transition from seasonable high temperatures in the low-40s to a much warmer period mid-late week that will be reminiscent of this past weekend’s record-breaking warmth. The only blemish on this spring preview is a slight chance for rain overnight Tuesday. Looking ahead, it appears March will be far from a lamb this year with a few storms rolling our way.

Rest of today – mild and above average with temperatures in the mid-upper 40s. Clear skies overhead. This will continue overnight and allow for good radiational cooling leading to overnight lows in the low-30s.

Tuesday – seasonable with high temperatures in the low-40s under mostly sunny skies.

Wednesday – a warm up begins as a summer-like high pressure area sets up over Bermuda. This high pressure will induce a southwest flow ahead of a cold front to the west that will push warm air from the Southeast to our region. The result will be increasing clouds but high temperatures near 60°F.

Thursday – even warmer, with high temperatures reaching well into the mid-upper 60s with mostly sunny skies.

 

Warm Temperatures to Continue Through Weekend

I suppose Staten Island Chuck was right when he predicted a short winter, because it looks like above normal temperatures are expected through the end of this month. This weekend, look forward to more temperatures near 60ºF.

NYC Weekend Weather – Feb 17, 2017

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This weekend will be characterized by well above normal temperatures and fair conditions. This warm trend looks to continue into next week, and perhaps beyond. Enjoy the warmth, and the early preview of spring!

Rest of today – normal high temperatures around 40°F with sunny skies.

Saturday – significantly warmer, sunny, with high temperatures in the mid-50s as a warm front pushes through.

Sunday – warm again, possibly warmer than Saturday with temperatures approaching 60°F. High pressure to the southwest will continue to pump warm air from the deep south our way.

Monday – cooler, though still above normal, with high temperature around 50°F and sunny.

 

Warm Trend to Continue

Climate Prediction Center points to a high likelihood for above normal temperatures in the next 6-10 days for much of the Eastern United States. Looking ahead, after a brief cool down to begin next week, temperatures go right back up into the mid-upper 50s by the middle of next week.

NYC Weather Update – Feb 14, 2017

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After a wild week of weather last week, things are markedly calmer this week. Temperatures will stay slightly below normal for the duration of the week. We get only a very slight chance at precipitation on Wednesday, otherwise, dry conditions prevail.

Rest of today – a cloudy start to the day should give way to more sun later on. However, temperatures will still be just below normal with highs expected around 40ºF.

Wednesday – a storm system passing to the north will push a warm front through, raising temperatures into the mid-40s and also giving us a slight chance for rain. Mostly cloudy skies.

Thursday – once that trailing cold front pictured above moves through, temperatures once again drop to below normal levels in the upper-30s. Winds pick up from the northwest yielding even colder wind chills in the upper-20s.

Friday – sunnier, and less windy, but temperatures expected to remain below normal again in the upper-30s.

 

NYC Weekend Weather – Feb 10, 2017

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An eventful week of weather continues into the weekend, though not to the same degree of intensity. We will see another chance for snow, as well as rain this weekend. Temperatures rebound back to around or slightly above normal for the weekend. Looking ahead, there are some signals at another possible strong storm a couple weeks out, but it’s much to early to be certain.

Rest of today – cold, windy, sunny with areas of blowing snow. High temperatures below normal around 30ºF. Wind chills in the teens. Overnight tonight, we could pick up a light coating of fresh snow from a fast moving, and relatively weak storm system.

Below are some reported snowfall totals from yesterday’s coastal storm. As you’ll see, there was a fairly sharp cutoff between areas that received 9″ or more of snow. Long Island, Connecticut, and parts of the Hudson Valley got the largest totals. This was largely due to the fact that the most intense bands of heavy snow spent more time parked over these areas than it did in the city.

Saturday – conditions improving, along with warmer temperatures in the mid-40s under mostly cloudy skies.

Sunday – another storm system moves in from the Ohio Valley. This will bring a mixture of precipitation to the Northeast. Luckily, with high temperatures in the low-40s, we will see all rain.

Monday – winds pick up behind the departure of the storm system above, and skies should clear up as well. Temperatures should again be in the low-40s.

 

NYC Snowstorm Update – Feb 08, 2017

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We’re in for a wild ride over the course of the next 24 hours as our weather goes from possibly record-breaking warmth to what is expected to be the most significant winter storm so far this season. Significant snow accumulations over 6″ and possibly as much as a foot are expected across the region, resulting in a winter storm warning for all of the NYC metro region.

 

Timing

Judging by the amount of sun we’re getting, temperatures will likely hit record-breaking levels in the low-60s in the city today. They will drop steadily to around 50ºF by the evening commute as a cold front pushes through and Arctic air flows in from the north. Overnight, temperatures will continue falling rapidly to around freezing. Precipitation is expected to begin around 3-4AM Thursday here in the city and continue through the early afternoon. Unfortunately, the timing of the heaviest precipitation does look to bring significant impacts to the morning commute.

North American High Resolution simulated radar 1km resolution, tomorrow at 8AM.

 

Impacts

Rain/snow mix to start, but by the morning rush, expecting all snow through the region. Heavy snow at times possibly reaching 1-2″/hr. Some thundersnow could occur. Hazardous travel conditions during the morning rush as plows will have trouble keeping roads clear with traffic and the moderate to heavy snow. Gusty winds could produce near-blizzard conditions with low visibility.

 

Snowfall Totals

Here are some graphics for snowfall totals from our local National Weather Service Forecast office. The general forecast calls for 6″-12″ in the city. The exact extent of totals will depend, as is generally the case with this type of storm, on where the heaviest snow bands set up and for how long they sit over an any given area.

Probabilities for 4″+ and 6″+ of snow respectively

 

Discussion

An shortwave that’s made its way rapidly across the country from the Pacific will move along the cold front that is pushing through today. As it does so, it will spawn a secondary low off the Mid-Atlantic that will strengthen rapidly as it moves over open water. At the same time, plenty of cold air will wrap around the deepening coastal low with high pressure to the west. This will put in place all the ingredients for a classic coastal winter storm for this area. The only thing keeping this storm from being a major blizzard with snowfall totals exceeding 2 feet is the fairly quick pace that it’s expected to move at.

This coastal storm will drive the expected heavy snows tomorrow. Its track is expected to take it just outside the 40ºN 70ºW benchmark, a spot that from a climatological perspective has translated to heavy snow storms for this region.

 

NYC Weather Update – Feb 06, 2017

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The weather story of this week will be some wild temperature swings as we encounter two storm systems Wednesday and Thursday.

Rest of today – mostly sunny to clear skies with high temperatures topping out in the low-40s.

Tuesday – temperatures start to warm up with an approaching warm front. A low pressure system north of us will pull lots of warm, moist air ahead of it as it moves through the region. High temperatures are expected to hit the low-50s with periods of rain throughout the day.

Wednesday – overnight, temperatures will actually rise due to the influence of warm air flowing into the area following the passage of the aforementioned warm front. Rain should end by the morning commute, giving us a chance to break some record high temperatures in the area. High temperatures are expected to range in the upper-50s to the low-60s with any significant breaks of sun.

Thursday – the warmup does not last. As the low pressure system above continues to track northeast across Quebec, a secondary low pressure center will form along a trailing cold front attached to this first low. High temperatures will only be in the low-30s, almost 30ºF cooler than Wednesday. Overnight from Wednesday to Thursday, it should get cold enough for the secondary low pressure center to spark some accumulating snows in the city. Snowfall totals are expected to be light, 1-3″ max in the city.

 

NYC Weekend Weather – Feb 03, 2017

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The weekend starts of with a chill and below average temperatures before a warmup. Temperatures will be above average for the second half of the week. Next chance for precipitation will come with a storm system moving in Tuesday. Looking ahead, expecting that Punxsutaney will be right, and there will be a cooldown again.

Rest of today – clouds decrease slowly. Chilly with high temperatures struggling to hit freezing. Brisk northwest winds will keep windchills below 20ºF.

Saturday – with strong high pressure over the Ohio Valley, we’ll see clear skies. However, since we will be on the east side of this high pressure center, cold air will continue to flow in from Canada, keeping high temperatures at around freezing.

Sunday – as this high pressure moves east, and we end up on the west side of it, clockwise flow around it will bring warmer are to the area, and temperatures will rebound into the low-40s with mostly cloudy skies.

Monday – above average temperatures in the low-40s continue with partly cloudy skies.

 

Drought Improves

Recent beneficial rains and snows have improved the drought situation statewide. However, moderate to severe drought continues to plague the downstate region.