This update is based on information from the National Hurricane Center’s 5PM advisory on Hurricane Irma.

Current Situation

Hurricane Irma continues to persist as a large and powerful Category 4 storm with peak sustained winds of 155 mph. Its eye still appears somewhat ragged, suggesting that it’s still undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. This will continue to lead to fluctuations in its strength.

Headlines

• Track forecast continues to edge westward. This decreases the risk Irma poses in any direct way to Georgia and South Carolina coastal areas, though storm surge threat here is still significant.
• The threat of a direct hit on Miami is decreasing. However, a track to the west of Miami would result in the South Florida region being on the more dangerous eastern side of the storm.
• The risk of devastating impacts to the west coast of Florida is increasing.
• Irma’s eye may be moving very close to or make landfall on the northern Cuban coast. The threat of catastrophic wind and storm surge damage to Cuba’s north shore is increasing.
• Risk of damage from flooding rains and tornadoes also exists. See this 1-5 day map of possible rainfall totals:

Forecast Track

Forecast models continue to edge slightly westward on a track for Irma and as such the National Hurricane Center has also adjusted its latest forecast slightly more west.

Forecast Intensity

National Hurricane Center forecasts continue to call for Irma to make landfall somewhere in South Florida as a very dangerous and powerful Category 4 storm. Outside of possible internal fluctuations and interaction with Cuba’s high terrain, there are no other inhibiting factors on Irma maintaining Category 4 strength of even possibly intensifying. Irma is entering an area of very warm sea surface temperatures with basically no mid-level wind shear.