Daily Archives: September 10, 2017

Hurricane Irma Update – 5PM, Sep 9, 2017

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Hurricane Irma has made landfall on the mainland of the Florida Peninsula at Marco Island. The eye is directly over Naples as of the time of this post. As the winds start to shift to the west and southwest in areas south of the eye of Irma, destructive storm surge will rapidly become a serious threat to life and property. The storm has weakened somewhat to a strong Category 2 with 110 mph winds. This does not diminish the wind threat, or the storm surge, flooding rain, and tornado threat.

Current Situation

Irma’s eye has filled in again as it’s interacting with Florida. It is a large, powerful storm which easily covers the entire state of Florida. There are still widespread reports of hurricane force wind gusts along the east coast of Florida, despite the eye being on the opposite side of the state.

Headlines

  • Storm surge has been flooding the streets of Miami all day. The storm surge threat will become very dangerous for southwest Florida in the next couple hours as the eye moves north along the west coast of Florida. This will bring onshore winds from the west and southwest and push the ocean over land.
  • Onshore winds along northern Florida and the Georgia/South Carolina coasts tonight will bring a storm surge risk there as well.
  • Wind threat is less serious than it was when Irma was still a strong Category 4, but a 110 mph Category 2 storm is still serious. Wind gusts recorded at Naples reached 142 mph. The northern eyewall is packing the biggest punch and this will continue to advance north along the west coast of Florida.
  • Next cities in line for a beating will be Fort Myers, Port Charlotte, and then the Tampa Bay area.
  • Tornado warnings have been popping up along the east coast of Florida with some of the stronger bands of Irma.

Forecast Track

It is pretty clear now that Irma will continue north to just west of north as it traverses the state of Florida along its west coast. Tampa Bay is the largest city at risk along this path.

Forecast Intensity

Irma is still expected to maintain hurricane strength until Monday. It should pass over Tampa Bay as a strong Category 2 storm. It will continue to gradually weaken during the next 48 hours followed by more rapid weakening.

Hurricane Irma Update – 11AM Sep 10, 2017

Outside of NYC, Tropical/Hurricanes, , , , , , , ,

Hurricane Irma made landfall traversed the Florida Keys overnight as a powerful 130 mph Category 4 storm. As suspected, it was able to re-strengthen slightly over the warm waters of the Florida Straits. Landfall on the southwest coast of Florida somewhere near Naples is imminent. The forecast track is a worst case scenario for Tampa Bay, which could experience a direct hit from Irma’s eye as a Category 3 storm.

Current Situation

As of 11AM, Irma was a Category 4 storm with max sustained winds of 130 mph. It was located in the Gulf of Mexico between Key West and Naples and moving north or north-northwest.

Headlines

  • Landfall on southwest Florida will occur this afternoon as a Category 4. Devastating wind damage is expected.
  • Storm surge will occur on the southwestern side of Irma. As of now, offshore winds from the north side of Irma are pushing water out to sea. This water will return as a storm surge once winds shift to onshore on the backside of the storm.
  • Devastating winds impacts are expected for Tampa Bay with this forecast track. This will be the first direct impact of a hurricane of this magnitude in Tampa Bay since 1921.
  • Heavy, flooding rain is expected across Florida as well as much farther inland in the Southeast.

Forecast Track

Forecast models are tightly clustered on a solution that takes Irma right up the west coast of Florida. This puts the cities of Naples, Fort Myers, Port Charlotte, and Tampa Bay at high risk of experiencing the worst winds from Irma’s core.

Forecast Intensity

Irma is expected to weaken as it moves up through the coast of Florida. However, it will still be a dangerous Category 3 or strong Category 2 storm when passing Tampa Bay. It will also likely bring strong winds to large parts of Georgia.