Monthly Archives: January 2018

NYC Weather Update – Jan 29, 2018

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This week starts and ends with some active weather. Colder temperatures that swept in after the passage of a cold front this weekend will be here to stay for the remainder of the week. We get a couple chances to see some snow, but not anything of considerable quantity.

Rest of today – partly sunny with high temperatures in the low-40s. A coastal storm passes by but far enough offshore that we shouldn’t see serious impacts from it.

Tuesday – chance of rain and snow in the overnight hours with some troughs rotating around the back side of this departing coastal low. Could have enough snow to make for a messy morning commute, but we’re not looking at any significant accumulation. Cloudy otherwise with temperatures topping out in the low-30s.

Wednesday – mostly sunny with high temperatures around freezing.

Thursday – increasing clouds with temperatures warming into the mid-40s in the warm sector before the next storm system hits us.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jan 26, 2018

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We follow the general pattern of last weekend with a warm up occurring, accompanied by some rain on Sunday. Temperatures cool off again to begin next week. Snow is possible late Monday into early Tuesday.

Rest of today – mostly sunny with highs in the mid-30s. A warm front pushes through and winds shift to the southwest, setting the stage for much warmer temperatures over the weekend.

Saturday – a gem of a day with high temperatures in and around 50°F and sunny skies.

Sunday – showers as a cold front pushes through. Temperatures still warm in and around 50°F. Mostly cloudy otherwise. 

Monday – temperatures cool back off into the low-40s after the passage of the cold front bringing rain on Sunday.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jan 19, 2018

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The relatively minor cold spell we’ve had this week transitions into a dramatic warm up going into the weekend. Above normal temperatures will persist into the beginning of next week before moderating later in the week. We have a chance for a soaking rain beginning Monday night going into Tuesday.

Rest of today – partly sunny with some gradual clearing later. High temperatures in the upper-30s to around 40ºF.

Saturday – much warmer due to a dramatic shift in the jet stream with high temperatures around 50ºF with warm air rushing in from the south and west ahead of a frontal boundary. The polar jet that’s brought a return of cold air to the region will be pushed considerably further north of us with high pressure building to the southwest. This is a setup favoring much warmer air flowing in from the south and west.

Sunday – a backdoor cold front will sweep in from the northeast, bringing cooler, more moist air from the Canadian Maritimes, leading to high temperatures in the mid-40s. Mostly sunny.

Monday – cloudy with a high in the low-40s and increasing chances of rain as a vigorous low pressure system approaches from the southwest.

NYC Weather Update – Jan 15, 2018

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We have a week of below average cold to contend with before a warm up over the weekend. Two separate chances for snow will take place Tuesday, but neither of these events is expected to drop large snowfall totals.

Rest of today (MLK Jr Day) – cold with high temperatures in the upper-20s and increasing clouds.

Tuesday – temperatures at or just above freezing. Cloudy with a clipper system moving through and bringing chances for light snow accumulation of around an inch.

Wednesday – snow chances continue into the first part of the day as the clipper system transitions into a coastal low. Overall snow accumulation not expected to exceed 2″ at this time.

Thursday – mostly sunny with high temperatures just above freezing.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jan 12, 2018

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Abrupt changes are the name of the game this weekend. Temperatures start off with  near or above record breaking warmth before plunging right back into below average Arctic chill. Cold air sticks with us well into next week.

Rest of today – areas of dense fog as snowpack melts and warm air surging from the south moves over it (advection fog). This will be accompanied by several bouts of moderate to heavy rain starting later this morning and late this afternoon as well. Overcast skies, with temperatures well into the upper-50s with 60°F or even above for a spot or two entirely possible while we remain in the warm sector.

All of this precipitation on the high resolution rapid refresh simulated radar will be making its way from southwest to northeast across our region today and tomorrow.

Saturday – another shot of moderate to heavy rain overnight into the early morning hours. High temperatures in the mid-40s anticipated early on with temperatures steadily falling the rest of the day. Overnight lows into Sunday only in the mid-teens! This is due to very cold air rushing back into the area after the passage of this cold front bringing us the rain.

Sunday – mostly sunny with high temperatures in the upper-20s.

Monday – partly sunny with highs nearing 30°F.

 

NYC Weather Update – Jan 8, 2018

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We have a week ahead where we should see temperatures warming into the normal range through mid-week near the 40°F mark. A even more pronounced warm up takes place towards the end of the week with rain expected.

Rest of today – overcast with temperatures at or just above the freezing mark. A frontal boundary passes through later today bringing the chance for snow showers. Some mixing with sleet and freezing rain could occur at the coast with temperatures slightly above freezing. Timing of precipitation will be late afternoon potentially disrupting the evening commute.

Tuesday – a great day with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures at or above 40°F.

Wednesday – partly sunny with high temperatures in the upper-30s.

Thursday – an approaching frontal boundary and high pressure forming over the Atlantic will lead to strong warm advection and warm winds flowing from the southwest. In response, temperatures will surge into the upper-40s and maybe touch 50°F! Quite a difference from last week.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NYC Weekend Weather – Jan 5, 2018

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Record-breaking cold to impact the region on the heels of the snowstorm that hit yesterday. Brutally cold weather lasts through the weekend before a thaw in temperatures pushes us back into normal ranges to start next week. Temperature trends likely to continue to above normal levels finally after a long cold spell. Snowfall totals in the city from yesterday generally ranged between 9-12″.

Rest of today – clear, windy, with a high in the mid-teens. Stiff west winds in the 20 mph range will make wind chills feel like -10ºF to -15ºF. A wind chill advisory is in effect for this reason.

Saturday – overnight lows in the single digits. Wind continues to be a factor blowing at 15-20 mph with record low day time temperatures likely to be broken. Highs only in the mid-teens again despite clear skies.

Sunday – with winds abating late Saturday and clear skies, excellent conditions for strong radiational cooling will exist. Overnight lows into Sunday maybe only as high as 5ºF. Clear and sunny with a high near 20ºF.

Monday – an approaching low from the west finally helps push temperatures back up in the upper-30s. Increasing clouds. Light snow and sleet possible overnight into Tuesday.

 

Warming Trend to Continue Next Week

We finally get a break from the brutal cold as the jet stream flattens out over the Eastern US next week, pushing this bitterly cold Arctic airmass north. Climate Prediction Center calls for 33% chances of above normal temperatures over the next 6-10 days. Normal highs are in the upper-30s. The 40s will feel downright balmy compared the the 20ºF below normal temperatures we’ve been seeing.

 

NYC Weather Update – Jan 1, 2018

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First post of 2018! The main weather headlines for this week will be a (slight) break from the bitter cold, a chance for snow, and then a return to even colder temperatures to end the week. There is some potential for a heavier snow storm on Thursday, but forecast models are at odds on some significant details.

Rest of today – sunny, but bitterly cold with high temperatures only in the upper-teens. With a steady northwest wind around 15 mph, wind chills fall between 0 and -5°F.

Tuesday – warmer and sunny with high temperatures in the mid-20s.

Wednesday – mostly sunny with high temperatures nearing 30°F! Downright balmy compared to the beginning of the week.

Thursday – a complex scenario unfolds relating to a coastal storm anticipated to approach the area. Differences exist between major forecast models that would lead to a significant spread in snowfall totals from this event. The first scenario, and the more likely of the two, depicts a storm further offshore, favoring lighter snow. The second scenario shows one much closer to the coast, resulting in much heavier snow and even mixed precipitation. For now, siding with the more likely scenario that favors lighter snow would see only about an inch in the city. Temperatures during the day on Thursday should warm into the upper-20s.

The GFS model depicts a storm that passes farther offshore, which would lead to a light snowfall event for the city. This is the more likely scenario at this time.
Resulting ensemble forecast snowfall totals from the GFS. The mean here is only about .6″, reflecting the forecast scenario above.
The NAM shows a much more substantial snow event, with the storm passing significantly closer to the coast. The mean of this model calls for snowfall totals of nearly 7″, with a secondary cluster of ensemble members between 16-23″!