The second week of March brings another nor’easter. The week will start off calmly with temperatures about average for this time of year. Tuesday night into Wednesday, a nor’easter will impact the region. This time around, the primary threat will be possible heavy snow rather than high winds. There are signals for yet another nor’easter next Tuesday as well!

Rest of today – decreasing clouds, high temperatures in the mid-40s with winds diminishing.

Tuesday – the veritable calm before the storm, a mostly sunny day with high temperatures in the mid-40s again.

Wednesday – a low pressure system that tracks east from the Great Lakes will spawn a secondary coastal low offshore of North Carolina. This coastal low will steadily gather strength, aided in part by the presence of an upper-level jet streak and the divergence provided within the exit region of this jet. At this time, two main camps of models have the storm tracking either close to the coast or over the 40N 70W benchmark. The former solution would mean higher precipitation amounts but more potential for mixing at the coast due to the influence of warmer marine air wrapping in. The latter solution would likely yield all snow, but with less total precipitable water. Currently, forecasters are calling for between 5-10″ of snow and a winter weather advisory is in effect.

High temperatures should top out in the upper-30s. The main snow event would occur Wednesday afternoon and overnight. Based on the NAM and GFS ensembles, it appears as of now that the highest confidence is for a 5-6″ event. Again, this could change with a shift in the storm track, and we won’t know where the heaviest bands of snow set up until the event begins.

Thursday – unlike the last storm, this one will exit relatively quickly. This reduces the overall impacts for wind and coastal flooding. Thursday should be a day of improving conditions with partly sunny skies and high temperatures back in the mid-40s.