Monthly Archives: May 2018

NYC Weather Update – May 28, 2018

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This week will see mostly average temperatures, with the exception of a very warm day tomorrow. Later on in the week, remnants of Subtropical Storm Alberto will have an impact on our sensible weather, bringing on an extended period of unsettled weather that carries into next weekend.

Rest of today – high temperatures in the low-70s with decreasing clouds. If clouds break up sooner in the afternoon, we could see warmer temperatures in the upper-70s.

Tuesday – a warm front will move through overnight into Tuesday. Temperatures will be significantly warmer with mostly sunny skies behind the frontal boundary, with high temperatures close to 90°F in the city away from south-facing shores.

Wednesday – mostly sunny still, with high temperatures falling back to normal levels in the mid-70s as a backdoor cold front moves through. This will cause a shift in winds to the east, bringing cooler, marine air onshore.

Thursday – increasing clouds with chances for rain late in the day, high temperatures holding in the mid-70s.

NYC Memorial Day Weekend Weather – May 25, 2018

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Memorial Day weekend in NYC kicks off with two incredible days of summer-like weather with excellent conditions for all outdoor activities, including hitting the beach. The weather shifts markedly for Sunday and Monday as a cooler air mass takes hold of the region behind a backdoor cold front. Temperature could be 15ºF-20ºF cooler between the first and second half of the weekend. Rain will accompany the passage of the backdoor cold front Saturday night into Sunday. No day will be a washout though.

Rest of today – sunny with breezy southwesterly winds bringing in warm air. Temperatures should soar into the upper-80s with a few spots reaching the 90ºF mark outside of coastal areas where sea breezes should set up fairly quickly.

Saturday – warm again with high temperatures likely reaching to around 90ºF away from south-facing shores with the influence of sea breezes. Late in the day towards the evening hours, a backdoor cold front will be approaching from the north. Ahead of this frontal boundary, clouds will increase throughout the day, and some pop up showers and thunderstorms could occur. Sea breezes may help initiate some of these storms closer to the coast. Given that there will be some instability in the atmosphere, a couple of these storms could approach severe limits, with strong wind gusts and heavy rain.


Sunday – overnight from Saturday into Sunday is when the bulk of the rain associated with this cold front will fall. There could be a scattered thunderstorm overnight. Rain will impact the beginning of the day Sunday, but conditions should improve later in the afternoon. Behind the backdoor front, easterly onshore winds will predominate, leading to much cooler temperatures only in the low-70s under cloudy skies.

Monday (Memorial Day) – cool with partly sunny skies and high temperatures in the low-70s.

 

First Tropical Storm of the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Although our weekend weather won’t be ideal, we are lucky not to have to plan for anything worse. Residents of the Gulf Coast between Louisiana and Florida Panhandle will need to contend with the arrival of the first named storm of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, Subtropical Storm Alberto.

NYC Weather Update – May 21, 2018

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We start this week off with above average warmth, which will only be punctuated by one day of cooler, wetter weather tomorrow. High pressure returns from Wednesday through the end of the week, bringing us more sunny weather, as well as temperatures gradually increasing to the low-80s by the end of the week. Looking ahead towards Memorial Day weekend, Saturday looks to be the best day, with some rain chances Sunday and Monday.

Rest of today – mostly sunny, with high temperatures in the upper-70s.

Tuesday – a weak disturbance will move through the area along with a warm front. This will yield rain chances later in the day, with the potential for heavy downpours in stronger storms that develop. With cloud cover and rain, temperatures will be significantly cooler, in the upper-60s.

Wednesday – behind this warm frontal passage Tuesday, temperatures should rebound into the upper-70s on Wednesday with mostly sunny skies.

Thursday – a cold front will push through going into Thursday but high pressure will build quickly and this is anticipated to be a dry frontal passage. Temperatures should remain decently mild with highs in the low-70s and mostly sunny skies.

NYC Weekend Weather – May 18, 2018

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The gray, gloomy, and wet weather trend that’s been semi-persistent for much of the last week continues into the weekend. Unfortunately, rain chances will exist both Saturday and Sunday. Cool temperatures to start the weekend will give way to warmer air. Things finally dry out going into the start of next week.

Rest of today – cloudy and cool with temperatures in the mid-60s. Slight chance for showers, though a strong area of high pressure well to our north in Quebec should help hold the line against rain associated with a stationary front draped west-east across Virginia and the Delmarva. Rain chances increase later into the overnight hours as this area of high pressure starts to lift to the northeast.

Saturday – the aforementioned stationary front will start to lift north as a warm front during the day Saturday. Ahead of this warm front, elevated instability could spark a few thunderstorms late in the day with an assist from vorticity maxima moving through in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. Temperatures will be cool, with clouds and rain showers throughout the day, maxing out in the low-60s. These temperatures will actually rise overnight once the warm front pushes through and allows for much warmer air to surge northward.

Sunday – warmer with high temperatures around 80°F, mostly cloudy with chances for showers and a thunderstorm particularly in the afternoon with the passage of cold front.

Monday – weather finally begins to dry up behind this cold front. High pressure will build once again and should give us a nice day with mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the mid-70s.

NYC Weather Update – May 15, 2018

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The story of this week will be the continuation of an unsettled weather pattern from this past weekend. Today, we will see a chance for some severe thunderstorms, and more rain chances lurk for us during the rest of this week, even extending into the weekend. Temperatures during this time will vary between normal and below normal depending on the extent of cloud cover and rain.

Rest of today – warm, humid, with a high in the mid-80s. Chances for severe thunderstorms increasing late in the afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has placed our area in an enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms, with primary threats being damaging “hurricane force” wind gusts, as well as heavy rain. Some large hail and an isolated tornado are not out of the question. High resolution rapid refresh model simulated radar suggests the best timing of when the storms hit NYC will be around 6PM during the evening rush hour. This will make for a messy road home.

As you can feel already, the air is quite saturated (fog earlier this morning confirms this), this moisture-laden air will be one ingredient fueling storm growth later especially as temperatures warm with cloud-free skies allowing solar heating to quickly destabilize this air mass. At the surface, a cold front slowly approaching from the north and west will serve as the trigger that provides the lift necessary for storms to initiate late this afternoon. Aloft, the presence of a mid-level shortwave trough upstream of us will help prime the atmosphere, increasing lapse rates and instability aloft, while providing some additional divergence and lifting for storms. Lastly, late in the day, we will be in the right entrance region of a 300 mb jet streak, another favorable ingredient for divergence and synoptic lift. Winds at all levels above the surface will be fairly strong, producing a shear profile that favors strong winds. However, any discrete storms that form ahead of the main squall line could contain strong rotating updrafts favoring large hail and tornadoes. As usually, best chances for severe weather exist north and west of the city, away from the stabilizing influence of the marine layer near the coast. Storms will likely weaken as they hit NYC precisely due to this.

Wednesday – will be significantly cooler behind the cold front with high temperatures only in the mid-60s. Rain chances continue as the frontal boundary stalls and becomes stationary just to our south, in a similar arrangement to what took place over the weekend. This pattern looks to lock in for the rest of the week, bringing multiple chances for rain with it.

Thursday – a drier day mostly, with some slight chance for showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with high temperatures rebounding into the upper-70s. Rain moves back in again overnight going into Friday.

Friday – cooler again with temperatures dipping into the mid-60s. Mostly cloudy with more chances for rain during the day as the stationary front mentioned above pushes back north as a warm front.

NYC Weekend Weather – May 11, 2018

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This Mother’s Day weekend will unfortunately feature mostly unsettled and cool weather, though no day will be a complete washout. A frontal boundary will just linger in our vicinity during this period, moving north as a warm front, then retreating south as a cold front. This will allow multiple subtle upper level disturbances to move along this boundary, and each of these will bring a chance for rain.

Rest of today – splendid day with sunny skies and just about average high temperatures around 70ºF.

Saturday – chance for rain early between 7-11AM, then a period of mostly cloudy skies until another round of showers with some thunderstorms rolls through in the evening between 8-10PM. Cooler with high temperatures in the mid-60s.

Sunday (Mother’s Day) – chance for showers in the morning, with steadier rain possible through early afternoon. Cool, with northeasterly onshore winds, and high temperatures in the low-60s. Rain chances should diminish later in the day.

Monday – drying out with temperatures in the low-70s and partly sunny skies.

Possible Tropical Storm Impacting the US During Memorial Day?

Consecutive runs of the GFS forecast model continue to suggest that a subtropical/tropical storm could develop in the western Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua in the next 10 days or so. It’s far too early to be certain of this, but the trend is worth noting. Recent runs suggest that this storm could make landfall on Florida and then travel up the east coast.

NYC Weather Update – May 7, 2018

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High pressure hangs around the region most of the week and gives us pleasant, seasonable weather with high temperatures at or above average for most of the week. One chance for rain comes in the late week period with a cold front forecast to pass through the area. Otherwise, it will be a marvelous week of ideal spring weather.

Rest of today – mix of sun and clouds with high temperatures in the upper-60s.

Tuesday – mostly sunny with high temperatures in the upper-60s. This week, we benefit from cooling onshore breeze due to the synoptic set up over the Northeast. Contrast this to last week when we had very warm winds blowing from the southwest.

Wednesday – warmer with high temperatures in the mid-70s and sunny skies.

Thursday – rain chances late as a cold front approaches from the west. Otherwise mostly sunny with high temperatures in the low-70s.

NYC Weekend Weather – May 4, 2018

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After two days of record-breaking heat in the low-90s, a pattern change is on tap for the NYC metro area going into the weekend. Cooler conditions will prevail in the wake of the passage of a cold front, which could also bring rain and thunderstorms (possibly severe). Saturday should shape up nicely but rain chances return Sunday before a cooler start to the work week.

Rest of today – the Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of the region under a marginal-slight risk of severe thunderstorm activity today. We continue to be an increasingly moist warm sector east of an advancing low pressure center. As the cold front associated with this low pushes east, storms will initiate first along a pre-frontal trough during the day today (late morning-early afternoon), then again along the actual frontal boundary itself later this evening. It is the latter round of these storms that could push severe limits. There are limiting factors to this activity especially near the coast with more stable air present. Cloud cover will limit day time heating, reducing overall instability. And the earlier round of activity should serve to actually mitigate the later round of storms. Aside from the rain, it should be mostly cloudy with some breaks in the sun (that would increase chances for storms), with high temperatures in the mid-80s.


Saturday – cooler air moves in behind the cold front tonight while a weak area of high pressure builds. High temperatures should top out in the mid-70s with partly sunny conditions. Rain chances increase towards the overnight hours.

Sunday – cooler still with mostly cloudy skies and chances for rain. High temperatures only in the mid-60s as a weak disturbance passes to our south.

Monday – skies finally clear up with high temperatures moderating and warming into the upper-60s.