Monthly Archives: July 2018

NYC Weather Update – Jul 30, 2018

Flooding, NYC, Rain, Thunderstorms, Weather Update, , , , , , , ,

Yesterday and today have been a welcome relief from the recent spell of tropical humidity. However, the comfortable weather won’t last this week. A warm front will sweep through and bring us right back into an unsettled, tropical weather pattern. There will be chances for showers and thunderstorms every day this week. Humidity will be back on just as last week.

Rest of today – cloudy, with high temperatures topping out in the low-80s then dropping to the mid-70s by end of the day.

Tuesday – as a warm front nears from the south, there will be chances for showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. High temperatures will be capped in the low-80s due to southeasterly onshore flow off the Atlantic ahead of the warm front.

Wednesday – temperatures should be in the mid-upper 80s, depending on the timing of the warm front passing through. Chances for showers and thunderstorms yet again. Heavy downpours from slow moving storms could cause localized flooding. Dew points will increase into the low-70s resulting in an uncomfortably muggy day.

Thursday – behind the warm front, we’ll get into even warmer and more humid air due to the presence of a Bermuda High. A prefrontal trough associated with a cold front will approach the area and once again give us a chance for thunderstorms. High temperatures should be in the upper-80s.

 

NYC Weekend Weather – Jul 27, 2018

NYC, Rain, Thunderstorms, Weather Update, Weekend, , , , , , , , , , ,

Thunderstorms roll through later this afternoon and into the overnight hours. The cold front bringing these storms stalls out before finally pushing through Sunday. A welcome break from this muggy weather follows, with dew points finally dropping out of the upper-60s into more comfortable ranges. The break is short lived, as the cold front will return mid-week next week as a warm front, bringing another round of warm and humid weather with chances for rain.

Rest of today – hot and humid today with high temperatures approaching 90°F and plenty of moisture still lingering. Late in the day, clouds will increase as a cold front approaches from the west. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a pre-frontal trough. Atmospheric dynamics favor some possibility for storms to develop damaging wind gusts. There will be modest instability with little convective inhibition by later in the day with plenty of solar heating and humidity in place. Wind shear, though weak in the lower layers of the atmosphere, increases substantially aloft, and so storms do have a chance to become strong. Any storm could bring about heavy rain and isolated minor flash flooding. The best timing of the onset of the rain appears to be between 7-9PM as of recent High Resolution Rapid Refresh model runs. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the western part of the region (including parts of NYC) under a slight risk of severe weather. By the time the storms hit the city, given the current timing, they should be weakening due to day time heating ceasing.

Saturday – only slightly cooler with high temperatures in the mid-80s. Still quite muggy. Spot showers are possible due to the cold front lingering in the area.

Sunday – finally, we get a refreshing day off from the humidity with dew points dropping into the low-60s and high temperatures in the mid-80s with lots of sun. The cold front finally pushes through with high pressure behind it bringing cooler, drier Canadian air our way.

Monday – should be another comfortable day with high temperatures in the mid-80s and relatively less humid conditions.

NYC Weather Update – Jul 23, 2018

Flooding, NYC, Rain, Thunderstorms, Weather Update, , , , , , , ,

Wet weather this weekend continues into much of this week as we settle into a pattern favoring rain chances every day. Tropical moisture remains firmly entrenched in the region due to an anomalously strong upper trough and deep layered southerly flow. A strong high pressure center over the western North Atlantic will block the progress of frontal boundaries until next weekend when we finally get a break from the wet weather.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy, high temperatures in the low-80s. Chances for scattered showers throughout the remainder of the day and into the overnight hours.

Tuesday – mostly cloudy, high temperatures again in the low-80s. Lower chances for rain than the rest of the week due to the high pressure mentioned above retrograding west. This should keep things largely dry.

Wednesday – best chance for sustained bouts of heavy rain as a cold front approaches from the west but stalls out and dissipates. High temperatures in the low-80s with mostly cloudy skies again. Flash flooding could be a concern given the atmospheric water content and the southerly steering currents parallel to the frontal boundary, favoring training of storms hitting the same area repeatedly.

Thursday – yet another day with the chance for showers and thunderstorms, high temperatures in the mid-80s and mostly cloudy.

NYC Weekend Update – Jul 20, 2018

Flooding, NYC, Storms, Thunderstorms, Tornadoes, Weather Update, Weekend, , , , , , , , ,

Last weekend’s beautiful, sunny weather will be but a fleeting memory this weekend as a coastal storm hits the area late Saturday going into Sunday. Periods of heavy rain and even some severe weather are possible Saturday night and Sunday, with the potential for isolated flash flooding. Unsettled weather continues into next week with a tropical weather pattern setting up providing daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Rest of today – a great start to the weekend, with high temperatures in the low-80s and sunny skies.

Saturday – cool, with high temperatures only in the upper-70s due to the influence of easterly winds ahead of a warm front attached to the advancing coastal storm. Clouds increasing late in the day and rain chances picking up in the evening hours going into overnight. Chance for heavy rain, scattered thunderstorms with gusty winds (even an isolated tornado possible). Gusty east winds will make the overnight hours feel particularly cool and miserable.

Sunday – rain chances continue into the day and even Sunday night. Temperatures increase behind the passage of the warm front mentioned above and winds shifting to the south – high temperatures should be in the mid-80s with mostly cloudy skies. All told, we could be looking at widespread rainfall totals of 1-3″ across the area.

Monday – showers likely again as temperatures remain in the mid-80s under mostly cloudy skies. A strong upper-level trough will be wedged between two areas of high pressure. The one off to our east over the western North Atlantic will continue to strengthen over the course of the week, blocking the eastward advance of this upper trough. This effectively will result in an extended period of southerly flow, with moist, tropical air coming our way. Multiple impulses of energy are expected to travel along this strong upper-level trough. Each one will bring with it a chance for showers and thunderstorms. This pattern does not appear to break until next weekend, although it’s not as though each day will be a washout either.

 

NYC Weather Update – Jul 16, 2018

NYC, Rain, Thunderstorms, Weather Update, , , , , , , ,

This week starts off hot and humid before we get a break from the humidity as a cold front rolls through late Tuesday. This will be a relatively strong front, and with plenty of moisture in place prior to its passage, bouts of heavy rain are possible with the thunderstorms accompany it. Although high temperatures won’t dip too much following the cold front, dew points will, and this will bring a much drier and more comfortable feel.

Rest of today – hot, humid, with high temperatures in the low-90s. A heat advisory is in effect due to the combination of hot temperatures and high dew points making for an oppressive, muggy day.

Tuesday – increasing clouds, high temperatures in the upper-80s prior to the onset of showers and thunderstorms later in the afternoon, going into the evening hours and overnight. The set up of the atmosphere tomorrow could allow for some marginally severe storms to develop. The primary threat will be from heavy rain and some strong wind gusts given the moisture in place and somewhat favorable shear.

Wednesday – mostly sunny with highs in the mid-80s but more comfortable with dew points significantly lower behind the cold front. Refreshing northerly winds should make for a nice day.

Thursday – another great day with sunny skies and with highs in the mid-80s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jul 13, 2018

NYC, Rain, Thunderstorms, Weather Update, Weekend, , , , , ,

Friday the 13th might be bad luck but not in terms of the weather this weekend. High pressure will only be briefly interrupted by the passage of a weak cold front late Saturday into Sunday. Not much in the way of rain expected with this front. Looking ahead, next Tuesday holds the best chance for appreciable rain. Temperatures will be on the warm side until late next week.

Rest of today – mostly sunny and warm with highs in the upper-80s.

Saturday – mostly sunny then increasing clouds late as a cold front approaches. Highs around 90°F.

Sunday – slight chance for thunderstorms early, then partly sunny, highs in the upper-80s.

Monday – mostly sunny, highs in the upper-80s again.