Thunderstorms roll through later this afternoon and into the overnight hours. The cold front bringing these storms stalls out before finally pushing through Sunday. A welcome break from this muggy weather follows, with dew points finally dropping out of the upper-60s into more comfortable ranges. The break is short lived, as the cold front will return mid-week next week as a warm front, bringing another round of warm and humid weather with chances for rain.
Rest of today – hot and humid today with high temperatures approaching 90°F and plenty of moisture still lingering. Late in the day, clouds will increase as a cold front approaches from the west. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a pre-frontal trough. Atmospheric dynamics favor some possibility for storms to develop damaging wind gusts. There will be modest instability with little convective inhibition by later in the day with plenty of solar heating and humidity in place. Wind shear, though weak in the lower layers of the atmosphere, increases substantially aloft, and so storms do have a chance to become strong. Any storm could bring about heavy rain and isolated minor flash flooding. The best timing of the onset of the rain appears to be between 7-9PM as of recent High Resolution Rapid Refresh model runs. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the western part of the region (including parts of NYC) under a slight risk of severe weather. By the time the storms hit the city, given the current timing, they should be weakening due to day time heating ceasing.
Saturday – only slightly cooler with high temperatures in the mid-80s. Still quite muggy. Spot showers are possible due to the cold front lingering in the area.
Sunday – finally, we get a refreshing day off from the humidity with dew points dropping into the low-60s and high temperatures in the mid-80s with lots of sun. The cold front finally pushes through with high pressure behind it bringing cooler, drier Canadian air our way.
Monday – should be another comfortable day with high temperatures in the mid-80s and relatively less humid conditions.