Daily Archives: April 13, 2020

NYC Weather Update – Apr 13, 2020

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A powerful storm tracking over the Great Lakes that brought a deadly outbreak of severe weather and strong tornadoes to the Deep South will continue tracking northeast over the Great Lakes. A warm front and cold front associated with this storm could bring thunderstorms, though regardless, dangerously strong winds will be present. After this storm passes, this gives way to a cooling pattern with a second, weaker storm coming Wednesday. Temperatures during this period start above normal in the 60s to below normal in the low-50s.

Rest of today – a powerful surface low over tracking over the Great Lakes with minimum central pressure below 984 mb will bring a period of dangerous winds to the region. The pressure gradient between this low and high pressure over the Atlantic will be very tight, as you can see below. This will result in sustained winds easily in the 30 mph range, with stronger gusts of 60-65 mph possible due to the very strong winds aloft. Both the warm front and cold fronts of this storm could touch off some isolated elevated thunderstorms, though instability will be modest at best. High temperatures should peak in the upper-60s with robust warm air advection due to these strong winds eventually turning southwest. Overnight lows in the mid-40s as this storm pulls away.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 2PM Monday

Tuesday – skies clear up overnight into the morning. Partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies should prevail with high pressure building. High temperatures in the upper-50s. Overnight lows around 40°F.

Wednesday – a second, weaker low is forecast to form over the northern Gulf of Mexico along the southerly extremes of the cold front from this first storm. This low then slides northeast along the coast. Although this second storm will pass far to the south of us, it could still bring some rain during the day. With clouds, rain, and an onshore northeasterly/easterly flow, temperatures will struggle to hit 50ºF. Overnight lows in the upper-30s.

GFS model 500 mb height anomalies for 2PM Thursday. Negative height anomalies at the 500 mb level can often translate to below normal temperatures at the surface.

Thursday – temperatures remain cool despite more sun, only reaching into the low-50s. Overnight lows around 40ºF.