Monthly Archives: July 2020

NYC Weather Update – Jul 27, 2020

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Possibly record-breaking heat to start off the week with highs in the upper-90s Monday. Tuesday will have slightly cooler temps but similar heat index due to high humidity. This could allow for some strong thunderstorms with the weak cold front passage. This frontal boundary stalls out and becomes stationary. Cooler, drier air finally arrives later this week past.

Rest of today – sunny and hot with high temperatures in the upper-90s. Record breaking highs are possible across the region with strong 850 mb temperature anomalies above the surface. Overnight lows in the upper-70s could break some records for highest minimum temperatures.

  • GFS 850 mb temperature anomalies for 2PM Monday
  • Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Tuesday.

Tuesday – although temperatures are overall expected to be cooler in the low-90s with more clouds, an increase in humidity will result in a heat index similar to Monday at or above 100ºF. A weak cold front moves through the region Tuesday evening and this could bring about a few strong to severe thunderstorms. Widespread severe weather is not expected at this time. Overnight lows in the mid-70s.

Wednesday – a bit cooler with high temperatures around 90ºF. Overnight lows continue to be uncomfortable in the mid-70s.

Thursday – high temperatures remain warm in the low-90s and mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows in the mid-70s. Looking ahead, above average warmth is still possible next week, even though we are expecting a break from the heat during the weekend.

National Hurricane Center 5 day graphical tropical weather outlook.

NYC Weekend, Tropical Storm Fay Weather – Jul 10, 2020

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Tropical Storm Fay will bring heavy rain, strong winds, flash flooding to start the weekend. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for all of NYC as well as coastal New Jersey and Connecticut, including all of Long Island. Conditions should start to improve Saturday as Fay continues tracking north and inland. We may even see some sun by Sunday. Temperatures start in the low-80s with the rain and clouds from Fay, but should be warming up upper-80s later on this weekend.

Rest of today – cooler with high temperatures in the low-80s. Windy and rain, with bouts of heavy, tropical downpours. 2-4″ of rain are possible with this storm. Sustained winds could approach tropical storm force (30-40 mph) near Fay’s core if it tracks over us. Otherwise, gusts up to 50 mph are possible. The main threat from Fay is from the heavy rains that could produce flash flooding. Overnight lows in the low-70s with tropical storm conditions still possible as Fay lifts north.

  • National Hurricane Center forecast for Tropical Storm Fay.
  • Weather Prediction Center rainfall forecast for Tropical Storm Fay. Note the widespread totals of 2-4″ possible in our region.

Saturday – as Fay lifts north and inland, it will weaken rapidly. Conditions should improve with a spell of dry weather possible before another non-tropical frontal system impacts the area with thunderstorms possible. Temperatures should be warm, in the upper-80s. Overnight lows in the mid-70s with rain chances diminishing behind the passage of this cold front.

Sunday – we may start off dry with some sun, which could allow temperatures to climb to the low-90s. However, scattered thunderstorms are possible later in the day. Overnight lows in the mid-70s.

Monday – similar day to Sunday, with high temperatures in the upper-80s. Partly sunny skies to start and isolated thunderstorms possible later in the day. Overnight lows in the mid-70s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Sunday

NYC Weather Update – Jul 5, 2020

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A hot, humid, and stormy start to the week with highs in the low-90s. A backdoor cold front moves through, granting a reprieve from heat mid-week with highs cooling off to the mid-80s Tuesday. The heat comes back after this. Later this week, and into the weekend, a storm with possible tropical characteristics could bring heavy rain to the region.

Rest of today – sunny to start with highs quickly climbing into the low-90s. Clouds increase later this afternoon. A shortwave trough will spark the potential for some showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon, around 4PM. These storms could bring heavy rain and gusty winds. Overnight lows in the low-70s with rain chances quickly dying off.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Monday.

Tuesday – a backdoor cold front will push through overnight. The onshore flow from the northeast behind this front should result in mostly cloudy skies and cooler temperatures in the mid-80s. Showers and thunderstorms could still impact the area in the afternoon. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

Wednesday – the backdoor cold front will return north as a warm front Wednesday. Temperatures will remain stable with high temperatures in the mid-80s with mostly cloudy skies. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will again be possible in the afternoon hours. Overnight lows in the mid-70s.

Thursday – high temperatures rebound into the upper-80s and low-90s possibly with fewer clouds as high pressure briefly builds in. Overnight lows in the mid-70s. Looking towards the end of the week, we’ll be monitoring the progress of a low pressure center that the National Hurricane Center has identified as having the potential to develop tropical characteristics. This storm could bring some heavy rain this weekend.

National Hurricane Center 5 day graphical tropical weather outlook.