Apologies for the lack of updates lately. Have had a few things going on keeping me busy. We have a wet beginning to October on the way with tropical moisture accompanying a slow moving cold front. Heavy rain is possible overnight Tuesday, with isolated flash flooding a concern. Temperatures should be around normal (low-70s) until this weekend when a reinforcing cold front brings us down into the mid-60s.
Rest of today – cloudy with chances for rain increasing later in the day as a cold front approaches from the west. High temperatures in the mid-70s. This latter frontal boundary may also spark some showers overnight, with temperatures dropping into the mid-60s. A strong low level jet will be in place overnight, enabling efficient transport of tropical moisture from the south. This will lead to the potential for rounds of moderate to heavy rain, where some training is possible as well. Flash flooding is a concern as places could see 1-2″ of total rainfall overnight. Winds could also be gusty in some of the heavier downpours, which could also produce some thunder. Temperatures generally in the mid-60s.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 2AM Wednesday 
GFS model output for precipitable water valid 2AM Wednesday, showing the potential for heavy rain.
Wednesday – conditions should improve during the day with showers diminishing in the morning. Mostly cloudy with highs in the low-70s. Subsidence (sinking air) with westerly winds could produce gusty winds. Overnight lows in the upper-50s with mostly clear skies.
Thursday – partly sunny with highs in the low-70s. Overnight lows in the mid-50s.
Friday – partly sunny with highs in the mid-60s. Chance for rain with another cold front forecast to move through. Overnight lows in the low-50s as temperatures start to cool off behind this frontal passage.
Looking ahead, behind this cold front, a period of below normal temperatures is forecast to hit much of the Eastern US next week.
