Monthly Archives: June 2021

NYC Weather Update – June 14, 2021

A wet, cool start to the week with an early round of thunderstorms that moved through this morning. Another is likely to follow early in the overnight tonight. Lingering showers Tuesday with a weak surface low in the vicinity. Highs below normal in mid-70s Monday, then warming up to average by midweek with sunny weather returning. The warm up continues into the weekend – Father’s Day looking good weather-wise so far!

Rest of today – high temperatures in the mid-70s with mostly cloudy skies. A second frontal boundary will push towards the area later this evening, with showers and thunderstorms again possible into the early overnight hours. Temperatures falling into the mid-60s.

HRRR simulated 1-kim radar valid for 9:30 PM tonight. An area of moderate to heavy rain accompanying some thunderstorms is depicted.

Tuesday – mostly cloudy still with a chance for showers early. High temperature near 80ºF. Overnight lows in the low-60s with clearing skies.

Wednesday – high pressure builds in behind what should be a dry cold frontal passage and resulting in a mostly sunny day with high temperatures around 80ºF. Overnight lows in the upper-50s given that the high pressure will usher in cooler, drier Canadian air.

GFS 500 mb temperature, height, and wind for Thursday at 8 PM. Heights will be building with a longwave trough exiting to our east. The result will be pleasant, sunny weather.

Thursday mostly sunny with high temperatures in the upper-70s. Pleasant conditions with the high pressure above still in control. Overnight lows in the low-60s.

NYC Weather Update – June 8, 2021

Upper-80s heat and humidity will spawn scattered heavy rain and thunderstorms over the next couple of days. Low vertical wind shear and weak overall steering currents mean the primary threat from these storms will be possible localized flooding. A backdoor cold front drops in from Canada Wednesday night leading to much cooler temperatures Thursday in the low-80s. Rain and even cooler temperatures arrive Fri when we may only just hit 70ºF.

Rest of today – partly sunny with high temperatures in the upper-80s, and a muggy feel to the day. Scattered thunderstorms bring the potential for heavy downpours later in the evening, perhaps starting around 7PM. Overnight lows in the low-70s as showers roll through early.

HRRR simulated 1-kim radar valid for 8 PM tonight. An area of moderate to heavy rain accompanying some thunderstorms is depicted.

Wednesday – high temperatures again in the upper-80s. Mostly cloudy with yet another shot for some heavy downpours especially later in the afternoon as a cold front draws nearer. Overnight lows around 70ºF as a backdoor cold front eventually pushes through.

Thursday – with the backdoor cold front already south of us by Tuesday morning, high temperatures should cool off to around 80ºF. Chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Overnight lows around 60ºF.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for valid 12 AM Thursday. A backdoor cold front is forecast to drop in from the north and east. The result will be a much cooler air mass than we’ve seen the beginning of this week.

Friday much cooler with persistent clouds and showers possible through the day, high temperatures perhaps only around 70ºF. Overnight lows around 60ºF with rain chances continuing.

NYC Weekend Weather – June 4, 2021

Muggy with thunderstorms rolling through later this afternoon and highs in the upper-70s. The story this weekend is about building heat and humidity. A Bermuda high becomes the dominant feature bringing an extended period of 90ºF+ heat into next week. While this high is anchored in the western Atlantic, we won’t see any appreciable chances for rain at least until later in the week next week.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy with high temperatures in the upper-70s. HRRR simulated radar runs this morning consistently signalling the arrival of a line of thunderstorms around 3-4PM this afternoon. Behind these storms, temperatures overnight expected to be in the mid-60s.

HRRR rapid refresh simulated 1-km radar valid 3:30 PM later today showing a cluster/line of thunderstorms moving through the NYC area.

Saturday – sunny with high temperatures much warmer in the upper-80s. Overnight lows in the low-70s. Humidity will be building as well due to the influence of southwesterly/westerly flow bringing in a warmer and moisture-laden air mass.

Sunday – high temperatures around 90ºF with mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

GFS model 1000-500 mb thickness and surface conditions valid 8 PM Sunday. You can see a sprawling high pressure center in the Atlantic. Clockwise anticyclonic flow from the south/southwesterly flow around the periphery of this high will advect hot, humid air towards our area.

Monday with a Bermuda high still in place, expect high temperatures to once again reach around 90ºF with higher heat index values due to the humidity. Overnight lows in the low-70s.