All posts by Lei Zhao

NYC Weather Update – Jan 15, 2018

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We have a week of below average cold to contend with before a warm up over the weekend. Two separate chances for snow will take place Tuesday, but neither of these events is expected to drop large snowfall totals.

Rest of today (MLK Jr Day) – cold with high temperatures in the upper-20s and increasing clouds.

Tuesday – temperatures at or just above freezing. Cloudy with a clipper system moving through and bringing chances for light snow accumulation of around an inch.

Wednesday – snow chances continue into the first part of the day as the clipper system transitions into a coastal low. Overall snow accumulation not expected to exceed 2″ at this time.

Thursday – mostly sunny with high temperatures just above freezing.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jan 12, 2018

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Abrupt changes are the name of the game this weekend. Temperatures start off with  near or above record breaking warmth before plunging right back into below average Arctic chill. Cold air sticks with us well into next week.

Rest of today – areas of dense fog as snowpack melts and warm air surging from the south moves over it (advection fog). This will be accompanied by several bouts of moderate to heavy rain starting later this morning and late this afternoon as well. Overcast skies, with temperatures well into the upper-50s with 60°F or even above for a spot or two entirely possible while we remain in the warm sector.

All of this precipitation on the high resolution rapid refresh simulated radar will be making its way from southwest to northeast across our region today and tomorrow.

Saturday – another shot of moderate to heavy rain overnight into the early morning hours. High temperatures in the mid-40s anticipated early on with temperatures steadily falling the rest of the day. Overnight lows into Sunday only in the mid-teens! This is due to very cold air rushing back into the area after the passage of this cold front bringing us the rain.

Sunday – mostly sunny with high temperatures in the upper-20s.

Monday – partly sunny with highs nearing 30°F.

 

NYC Weather Update – Jan 8, 2018

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We have a week ahead where we should see temperatures warming into the normal range through mid-week near the 40°F mark. A even more pronounced warm up takes place towards the end of the week with rain expected.

Rest of today – overcast with temperatures at or just above the freezing mark. A frontal boundary passes through later today bringing the chance for snow showers. Some mixing with sleet and freezing rain could occur at the coast with temperatures slightly above freezing. Timing of precipitation will be late afternoon potentially disrupting the evening commute.

Tuesday – a great day with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures at or above 40°F.

Wednesday – partly sunny with high temperatures in the upper-30s.

Thursday – an approaching frontal boundary and high pressure forming over the Atlantic will lead to strong warm advection and warm winds flowing from the southwest. In response, temperatures will surge into the upper-40s and maybe touch 50°F! Quite a difference from last week.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NYC Weekend Weather – Jan 5, 2018

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Record-breaking cold to impact the region on the heels of the snowstorm that hit yesterday. Brutally cold weather lasts through the weekend before a thaw in temperatures pushes us back into normal ranges to start next week. Temperature trends likely to continue to above normal levels finally after a long cold spell. Snowfall totals in the city from yesterday generally ranged between 9-12″.

Rest of today – clear, windy, with a high in the mid-teens. Stiff west winds in the 20 mph range will make wind chills feel like -10ºF to -15ºF. A wind chill advisory is in effect for this reason.

Saturday – overnight lows in the single digits. Wind continues to be a factor blowing at 15-20 mph with record low day time temperatures likely to be broken. Highs only in the mid-teens again despite clear skies.

Sunday – with winds abating late Saturday and clear skies, excellent conditions for strong radiational cooling will exist. Overnight lows into Sunday maybe only as high as 5ºF. Clear and sunny with a high near 20ºF.

Monday – an approaching low from the west finally helps push temperatures back up in the upper-30s. Increasing clouds. Light snow and sleet possible overnight into Tuesday.

 

Warming Trend to Continue Next Week

We finally get a break from the brutal cold as the jet stream flattens out over the Eastern US next week, pushing this bitterly cold Arctic airmass north. Climate Prediction Center calls for 33% chances of above normal temperatures over the next 6-10 days. Normal highs are in the upper-30s. The 40s will feel downright balmy compared the the 20ºF below normal temperatures we’ve been seeing.

 

NYC Weather Update – Jan 1, 2018

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First post of 2018! The main weather headlines for this week will be a (slight) break from the bitter cold, a chance for snow, and then a return to even colder temperatures to end the week. There is some potential for a heavier snow storm on Thursday, but forecast models are at odds on some significant details.

Rest of today – sunny, but bitterly cold with high temperatures only in the upper-teens. With a steady northwest wind around 15 mph, wind chills fall between 0 and -5°F.

Tuesday – warmer and sunny with high temperatures in the mid-20s.

Wednesday – mostly sunny with high temperatures nearing 30°F! Downright balmy compared to the beginning of the week.

Thursday – a complex scenario unfolds relating to a coastal storm anticipated to approach the area. Differences exist between major forecast models that would lead to a significant spread in snowfall totals from this event. The first scenario, and the more likely of the two, depicts a storm further offshore, favoring lighter snow. The second scenario shows one much closer to the coast, resulting in much heavier snow and even mixed precipitation. For now, siding with the more likely scenario that favors lighter snow would see only about an inch in the city. Temperatures during the day on Thursday should warm into the upper-20s.

The GFS model depicts a storm that passes farther offshore, which would lead to a light snowfall event for the city. This is the more likely scenario at this time.
Resulting ensemble forecast snowfall totals from the GFS. The mean here is only about .6″, reflecting the forecast scenario above.
The NAM shows a much more substantial snow event, with the storm passing significantly closer to the coast. The mean of this model calls for snowfall totals of nearly 7″, with a secondary cluster of ensemble members between 16-23″!

 

NYC New Year’s Eve Weather – Dec 29, 2017

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A light snow tops off 2017. The new year comes with a continued stretch of arctic cold. Make sure to bundle up for your New Year’s Eve festivities as this may be one of the coldest nights we’ve seen. Cold extends well into next week where we could see a more substantial snow storm.

Rest of today – increasing clouds, cold, with high temperatures in the low-20s.

Saturday – a weak storm system moving from the Great Lakes and a secondary coastal low should bring a light snowfall of 1-2″ in the city. High temperatures in the mid-20s.

Sunday (New Year’s Eve) – Arctic high pressure returns with a vengeance. High temperatures around 20°F, with mostly sunny skies.

Monday (New Year’s Day) – bitterly cold temperatures overnight hovering in the low teens. Wind chill will make frostbite a real issue. High temperatures Monday struggle to break even 20°F.

NYC Christmas Weekend Weather – Dec 21, 2017

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Those of you hoping for a white Christmas will be disappointed to know that we’ll instead probably be getting a rainy weekend. There is still some small chance for snow mixed with rain Christmas Day, but the white stuff won’t be sticking. While temperatures will warm up this first weekend of the official start of winter, they will plummet considerably after Christmas. Looking into long-range forecast models, there are some indications for what could be winter storms for the first couple weekends of January.

Rest of today – mostly sunny with some thin clouds, but cool with high temperatures in about 40°F.

Saturday – overnight into tomorrow, a warm front will be pushing through associated with the first of two storms affecting the area this holiday weekend. Light rain will precede this frontal passage overnight, then warmer air and steadier precipitation should affect the area during the day Saturday. High temperatures will be much warmer, around 50°F.

Sunday – once the cold front depicted above moves through, we will get a calm day on Sunday with high temperatures dropping back into the mid-40s with mostly sunny skies.

Monday (Christmas Day) – another area of low pressure will develop along the cold front that pushes into the Atlantic. This low will track close enough to the Northeast to bring some chance for a passing snow shower early in the day Monday with much colder air rushing in from the northwest. High temperatures should be in the low-40s.

NYC Weather Update – Dec 18, 2017

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A brief warm up takes place to start this week before temperatures cool of back to seasonal norms. No precipitation anticipated at least until the weekend. At this point it does not look like a white Christmas is in the cards as temperature trends are pointing warmer leading into the weekend

Rest of today – partly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-40s.

Tuesday – a dry warm front passes through. Winds shift to the southwest behind this and temperatures should hit the mid-50s with warm air flowing into the area.

Wednesday – a trailing cold front pushes through, again, no precipitation is anticipated. High temperatures cooling back off into the mid-40s with mostly sunny skies.

Thursday – continued cooling trend with high temperatures in the upper-30s and sunny skies.

 

NYC Weekend Weather – Dec 15, 2017

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A very cold start to the weekend with light snow accumulations will give way to a warming trend that carries over to the beginning of next week. During this time, we’ll see temperatures go from much below average to above average.

Rest of today – snow beginning around 2PM today and lasting through the evening rush hour with generally 1-2″ of accumulations expected in the city. Cloudy otherwise with high temperatures holding steady in the upper-20s to around 30ºF. The cause of the snow is a strengthening coastal low. This low will pass close enough that a shield of decent snowfall hits the area for several hours this afternoon.

Saturday – another cold night with overnight lows in the mid-20s in the city before sunny conditions help propel temperatures into the upper-30s.

Sunday – very similar day to Saturday with high temperatures again in the upper-30s and mostly sunny conditions.

Monday – chance of light rain/snow mix overnight due to a passing warm front. Behind the warm front, temperatures reach well into the mid-40s with partly sunny skies.

NYC Weather Update – Dec 11, 2017

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We got our first round of snow of the winter season in NYC this past weekend, with snowfall totals generally between 2-4″ from the event. We open this week with another chance for precipitation, but this time more likely in a mixed mode. An arctic blast hits for the mid-week period before yet another storm system brings our next chance of snow and rain Friday.

Rest of today – mostly sunny, cool, with high temperatures slightly below normal around 40°F.

Tuesday – a low pressure system moving east from the Great Lakes will impact the region with a mix of rain and snow. This time around we’ll be on the warm side of the storm, so we’ll likely see mostly rain at the coast. A warm front will pass through overnight. Temperatures will rise into the upper-40s in the warm sector for tomorrow. Precipitation most likely will occur in the morning. Mostly cloudy otherwise.

Wednesday – as this low pressure tracks into the Canadian Maritimes and deepens, a strengthening pressure gradient on its back side will lead to much colder and windier conditions. High temperatures will struggle to reach the freezing mark with partly sunny skies after a very cold night with low temperatures in the low-20s. Stiff west winds 20-25 mph with stronger gusts will make wind chills feel much colder.

Thursday – another cold day with high temperatures only around the freezing mark and partly sunny skies.