All posts by Lei Zhao

NYC Weather Update – Jul 17, 2017

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We enter a week of weather that will very much feel like summer, with temperatures warming up during the midweek period. Each day, there could be a chance for showers or thunderstorms, though these will be more of the scattered variety. Temperatures return to more seasonable levels by the weekend.

Rest of today – partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms popping up this afternoon in some spots. A few storms could become strong or even severe. Temperatures in the mid-80s.

Tuesday – another chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon with a weak front in the area, but partly cloudy otherwise and temperatures again in the mid-80s.

Wednesday – warming up with temperatures edging closer to 90°F. Partly cloudy skies, with a chance for showers and thunderstorms again especially during the late afternoon and evening hours.

Thursday – hottest day of the week with temperatures in the low-90s. Partly sunny, and there is a chance for showers and thunderstorms as a cold front passes through the area, but the timing of this frontal passage is as yet not completely certain. Current thinking is that the front passes through overnight into Friday.

Friday – still quite warm in spite of the cold front passing through, high temperatures around 90°F again and mostly sunny.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jul 14, 2017

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What a difference a day makes – we went from a high in the low-mid 90s yesterday to a high today 20ºF cooler. Anticipate multiple rounds of rain throughout Friday, but much improved conditions for the weekend itself. We get another shot at rain on Monday to start next week.

Rest of today – cool, cloudy, with an easterly wind and the influence of a Canadian maritime airmass following the passage of a cold front earlier, we will experience significantly below normal high temperatures only in the low-mid 70s. The cold front will stick around just south of us during this time, and multiple impulses of energy will ride along this front. This means chances for rain, outside of this morning, most likely again in the early evening hours.

Saturday – early morning fog clears out quickly and gives way to a partly to mostly sunny day with much warmer temperatures in the mid-80s.

Sunday – sunny, with high temperatures in the mid-upper 80s.

Monday – a gradual warmup begins Monday with high temperatures into the upper-80s and a chance for showers and thunderstorms.

NYC Weather Update – Jul 10, 2017

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This week’s weather will be dictated by a frontal boundary that will dwell in our vicinity, giving rise to multiple days when we could see rain. A warm, humid, tropical airmass will be in place, which adds the potential for heavy rain and maybe some localized flooding. To top it off, Tuesday also holds a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms.

Rest of today – mostly sunny with high temperatures around normal in the low-80s. A warm front lifting northwards brings a noticeably muggier feel later on.

Tuesday – we will be firmly inside the warm sector, wedged between the warm front mentioned above and an advancing cold front. A prefrontal trough will provide the best dynamics for thunderstorm initiation. Storms that do form will have ample energy to feed off, though less so over areas east of the Hudson under a marine influence. Mostly cloudy otherwise, warm and humid with high temperatures in the mid-80s.

Wednesday – partly sunny, with chances for showers. Highs in the mid-upper 80s depending how much sun we see.

Thursday – another day where we could see rumbles of thunder and rain, mostly cloudy and warm again with highs in the mid-80s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jul 7, 2017

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Soggy start to the weekend quickly improves. We should see a seasonable and fair weather weekend in the NYC area, although Saturday carries a chance for some scattered showers and thunderstorms. Sunday will be the better of the two days.

Rest of today – on the cool side with the clouds, highs in the low-80s. The flooding rains we’ve received this morning will subside quickly after lunch and we might even get a little sun later. Another afternoon spot shower or thunderstorm is also possible.

Saturday – a cold front moves through and provides the trigger for some showers or thunderstorms, but do not anticipate a washout like this morning. Mostly cloudy with high temperatures in the mid-80s.

Sunday – mostly sunny with high pressure building behind the cold front. Temperatures again in the low-80s.

Monday – should be another dry day with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the low-mid 80s.

NYC Independence Day Weekend Weather – Jun 30, 2017

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A hot and active weather pattern sets in for this holiday weekend. Despite multiple rounds of possible showers and thunderstorms, this will be far from a washout. Most of the precipitation looks to be late in the day or overnight, leaving most of the day clear for all manner of outdoor activities. The weather clears up in time for the holiday itself.

Rest of today – warm, humid, high temperatures in the upper-80s with a mix of sun and clouds. There’s a chance for showers and thunderstorms late in the day and into the overnight hours, more likely west of the city. It remains to be seen if organized showers remain intact as they approach much more stable air at the coast.

Saturday – another warm and humid day with a chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures in the mid-upper 80s.

Sunday – best chances for rain are overnight into Sunday. Another hot day in store as a slow moving cold front to the west keeps the door open for hot and humid tropical air to flow into the area from the southwest.

Monday – with the cold front behind us, fair weather with high temperatures in the mid-80s and lots of sun.

NYC Weather Update – Jun 26, 2017

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The first official full week of summer starts out more spring-like, but heats up towards the end of the week. Along with the heat, chances for rain and thunderstorms also increase, leading to an active weather pattern for there holiday weekend.

Rest of today – mostly sunny with a small chance for a pop-up shower inland, north and west of the city as a weaker cold front moves through. High temperature around 80°F.

Tuesday – a second cold front approaches, weakening as it does so. This front will bring another slight chance for showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. High around 80°F again.

Wednesday – high pressure builds behind the cold front. Temperatures remain below average in the upper-70s to 80°F with sunny skies.

Thursday – high pressure to the south starts sliding southeast and brings warmer tropical air flowing clockwise around it. This will have the effect of raising temperatures into the mid-80s under mostly sunny skies.

NYC Weather Update – Jun 19, 2017

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The weather on Sunday turned out to be a real gift for fathers in the region, yielding a lot more clear skies than anticipated going into the weekend. We could have a rough start this week with possible severe weather, and another chance of rain mid-week. A tropical system forming over the Gulf of Mexico bears watching this coming weekend.

Rest of today – humid and warm with high temperatures in the low to mid-80s. Mostly sunny to start. All the ingredients for possibly severe thunderstorms will be in place this afternoon and evening. A flash flood watch is in effect for most of the area west of Long Island. The Storm Prediction Center has placed some of the region west of the Hudson River under an enhanced risk of experiencing severe weather with the city itself in a slight risk area.

A vigorous cold front will move east towards NYC today. As we can feel, the airmass ahead of the front is saturated and warm. The more sun we get before the front approaches, the greater the destabilization in the atmosphere. The cold front will line up with the flow of the jet stream, which will favor line segments and training of storm cells repeatedly hitting the same areas (flash flood warning is in place because of this).

Timing of the leading edge of the storms appears to be around 5pm. Any storms or substantial cloud cover ahead of this would decrease the severe potential. Primary threat along this leading line of storms would be damaging wind gusts with a small chance for hail and a couple isolated tornadoes.

Behind this leading line of storms, we could see a slight break around 8PM, but then more rounds of moderate to heavy rains that could lead to flash flooding.

Tuesday – severe weather and rain should dissipate fairly quickly after midnight. Decreasing clouds in the wake of the cold front though high temperatures remain similar to today due to the influence of southwest winds.

Wednesday – mostly sunny with high temperatures in the low-80s. A chance for rain in the afternoon, but much milder and less widespread than today.

Thursday – mostly sunny again, with highs in the low-80s again.

 

Potential Tropical Storm in the Gulf

Two possible tropical systems are churning, one east of the Windward Islands and the other crossing over the Yucatan into the Gulf of Mexico. The latter system may have a tangible impact in terms of bringing tropical moisture to the area this coming weekend.

 

 

 

 

 

 

NYC Weekend Weather Update – Jun 16, 2017

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What a difference a week makes. Since Wednesday, we’ve seen temperatures slide from record heat in some places. An unsettled weather pattern takes hold through the weekend and into next week with chances for showers and thunderstorms each day.

Rest of today – Cloudy, temperatures on the cool side with high temperatures only in the low-70s. Multiple chances for mainly showery precipitation with a warm front slowly creeping towards us. Two primary batches of rain look to affect the area around noon then again in the late evening around 10pm.

Saturday – the warm front mentioned above should push through, but could be slow to do so which would result in a lower high temperature like today as opposed to the upper-70s. Both before and after the warm front passage there’s a chance for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Generally mostly cloudy.

Sunday – we’ll be in the warm sector between the exiting warm front and an approaching cold front. High temperatures will respond by climbing into the mid-80s. Could start the day off with scattered showers. The majority of the day looks rain-free though cloudy. Not a total washout for Father’s Day, but not ideal either.

Monday – the cold front pushes through late in the day. High temperatures again in the low-mid 80s. There’s some possibility for strong to severe thunderstorms with associated with this cold front. Plenty of moisture in the atmosphere would easily yield some heavy downpours as well.

NYC Weather Update – Jun 12, 2017

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Main weather headline for the start of the week remains the heat and humidity. We’re in day two of the second heat wave of the year. Luckily for us, relief is not far off, with a cold front moving through Tuesday, a distinct change in airmasses will bring much cooler temperatures for the balance of the week.

Rest of today – sunny, hot, humid, high temperatures ranging from the low-mid 90s across the area with heat index values in the upper-90s. Air quality alert is in effect for high levels of ozone. The only relief from the heat will be on immediate south-facing shores that benefit from a sea breeze.

Tuesday – much the same as today to start off, with temperatures in the low-mid 90s and very humid again. Overnight temperatures going into Tuesday will be quite mild as well. There is a possibility later in the afternoon for a few scattered strong to severe thunderstorms that may pop up ahead of a cold front pushing through.


Wednesday – much cooler and less humid in the wake of the passing cold front. We will feel the cooling relief of a northeasterly wind as a high pressure center over southeastern Canada becomes the primary factor for our sensible weather. Temperatures will top out near 80ºF with mostly sunny skies.

Thursday – temperatures cool off even more into the mid-70s with increasing clouds.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jun 9, 2017

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Got retrained as a SKYWARN spotter last night – this weekend should be tranquil though. A steady warming trend begins this weekend and lasts through mid-week next week. After a prolonged period of cool and unsettled weather, we could see the second heatwave of the season. Great weekend for a getaway to the beach!

Rest of today – mostly sunny, temperatures in the upper-70s to around 80º. Some residual instability in the wake of a low pressure center exiting the Northeast may touch off a couple isolated showers or thunderstorms.

Saturday – the warmup continues with temperatures climbing into the low-80s. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible again in the afternoon hours with the passage of an upper level disturbance.

Sunday – the heat arrives in earnest as a Bermuda high sets up and begins to strengthen. This will begin pumping in warmer and more humid air from the south and southwest. Temperatures are expected to climb into the low-90s in the city with sunny skies, with cooler temperatures due to the sea breeze on south-facing shores in the mid-80s. Great beach day, and ideal conditions for the annual Puerto Rican Day Parade.

Monday – the heat continues with temperatures again in the low-90s with some spots in the mid-90s and sunny skies. There could be a heat advisory up at some point.