All posts by Lei Zhao

NYC Weekend Weather – Mar 10, 2016

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Another day of near record or record breaking temperatures is on tap for the region as a highly anomalous stretch of warm weather continues. Yesterday, Central Park hit 77ºF, shattering the old record of 69ºF set in 2000 by nearly 10ºF. Looking ahead, temperatures will moderate somewhat over the weekend, but will remain 10ºF+ warmer than normal for this time of year in the upper-50s to low-60s. We spring forward an hour into Daylight Savings Time on Sunday.

Rest of today – temperatures at this hour were already well into the upper-60s and just over 70ºF across the region. Today would easily be warmer than yesterday if not for the fact that current satellite trends suggest that widespread cloud cover will be moving in over the next couple of hours. Areas that experience more breaks in cloud cover today could break some records. Rain will develop, first to the north, then push through the whole area overnight tonight.

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Friday – clouds should clear up steadily through the day Friday. A cold front will move through, and will cause high temperatures to dip by about 10ºF compared to today, yielding highs in the low-60s, but that will still be over 10ºF above normal for this time of year.

Saturday – high pressure from the north takes control and gives us a beautiful, sunny day with high temperatures near 60ºF.

Sunday – similar temperatures to Saturday, but with increasing clouds as the next storm approaches the area.

Monday – cooler with high temperatures in the low-50s and rain.

Warm Trend Continues to Late March

Looking ahead, temperatures are forecast to continue at above normal levels through the majority of March.

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NYC Weather Update – Mar 7, 2016

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Although spring is still technically two weeks away, it certainly will not feel that way this week with some very warm weather coming our way. The warm temperatures appear to persist well into the latter part of this week, and onwards into the weekend.

Rest of today – a sunny preview of things to come this week with temperatures in the mid-50s.

Tuesday – the warm up begins with high temperatures easily reaching 60ºF in the city despite clouds.

Wednesday – as high pressure moves off of the East Coast, clockwise return flow on its western edge brings with it a surge of warmer air, allowing temperatures to soar into the upper-60s (probably topping 70ºF in the city also), breaking some daily records especially in interior regions.

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Thursday – a weak disturbance moves through late in the day on Thursday, but temperatures will remain warm in the upper-60s prior to this disturbance’s passage.

Friday – following the passage of the disturbance above, we get somewhat of a cool down, with high temperatures dropping 10ºF into the upper-50s on Friday. This is still well above normal for this time of year though!

Spring Warms Up Early

Looking ahead, Climate Prediction Center models suggest a high likelihood of above average temperatures for the entire Eastern United States in the 1-2 week range.

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NYC Weekend Weather – Mar 3, 2016

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As we approach spring, the weather has a tendency to swing wildly between different extremes. We start this forecast period off with accumulating snow, while by this time next week, we are expecting temperatures in the 60s!

Rest of today – mostly sunny, but cool with below average high temperatures in the upper-30s.

Friday – overnight tonight into the first half of Friday, our area will get impacted by the northern fringe of what is expected to be a powerful coastal storm. Lucky for us, high pressure north of us is sufficiently strong so as to prevent this storm from hitting us dead one, which would certainly result in a more significant snowfall event. In this case, we are expecting to see snow in the range of 1-2″ across the city and Long Island with lesser amounts further north and west. Temperatures will remain colder than nom

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Saturday – high pressure takes control with skies clearing and temperatures in the low-40s. Another slight chance for snow Saturday night accompanies the passage of a clipper system.

Sunday – partly sunny with highs around average in the low-mid 40s.

Monday – temperatures start to warm up as the high pressure moves offshore to the east and warm, southwesterly return flow circles clockwise around its western periphery. High temperatures in the low-50s.

Warming Trend Ahead

With the aforementioned high pressure center offshore in the Atlantic early to mid-week next week, we’ll see increasingly warm temperatures, up into the 60s by Wednesday. This warm trend looks to continue over the course of the next week, with a brief cooldown late next week before what should be a warm weekend next week.

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NYC Weather Update – Feb 29, 2016

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This week opens up with some very mild and spring-like weather. March will arrive like a lamb for sure. However, following a storm system moving through Wednesday, temperatures will cool off to below normal levels, with a possibility for some snow Friday! This kind of highly variable weather is typical for spring, which officially starts in just under 3 weeks time.

Rest of today –  a line of showers associated with a cold front passed through this morning and has moved well off to the east of the city. Skies have cleared up, and temperatures are rising steadily into the upper-50s. Would not be surprised to see some areas top 60ºF this afternoon.

Tuesday – despite the passage of a cold front today, temperatures don’t cool off too much tomorrow. Mostly sunny skies should yield temperatures slightly above normal in the upper-40s.

Wednesday – the next storm system moves in overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. The low pressure center responsible for this storm is forecast to pass almost directly over the region early Wednesday morning. As it approaches, it will pull in warmer air from the south into its counterclockwise cyclonic flow, which will result in temperatures actually warming up overnight into the upper-40s. Temperatures will peak  Wednesday morning around 50ºF, accompanied by periods of rain. Rain should be dissipating by 2PM in the afternoon.

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Thursday – following the passage of the low pressure above, temperatures will cool off into the upper-30s fro Thursday under mostly sunny skies.

Drought Ends

The last couple months have delivered sufficient snow and rain to bust the moderate drought that had been persisting over the NYC metro area, in particular on Long Island. This is excellent news for farmers and gardeners throughout the region ahead of the upcoming growing season.

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NYC Weekend Weather – Feb 26, 2016

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The main weather story this weekend will be a rather dramatic swing in temperatures. We start the weekend off with below normal temperatures and highs only in the upper-30s. By Monday, temperatures are forecast to reach into the mid-50s. The best day of the weekend will be Sunday with ample sunshine and mild highs in the low-50s.

Rest of today – sunny, with a cool northwest wind in the 20-25mph range, which will make it feel like the upper-20s with an actual high temperature in the upper-30s.

Saturday – winds abate and but temperatures remain cool in the upper-30s despite plenty of sunshine.

Sunday – a world of difference with temperatures topping out in the low-mid 50s.

High pressure to the south with a frontal boundary to the west leads to warmer air flowing from the southwest
High pressure to the south with a frontal boundary to the west leads to warmer air flowing from the southwest

Monday – continuing a mild trend with temperatures in the mid-50s and mostly sunny skies.

NYC Weather Update – Feb 22, 2016

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This week features an active weather pattern with precipitation possible from Tuesday evening through parts of Thursday. Temperatures start off below normal before rising above normal for Wednesday and Thursday, then finally dropping below normal again to end the week. A cooler than normal trend will persist into the beginning of March.

Rest of today – mostly clear with high temperatures in the mid-upper 40s.

Tuesday – the weaker of two storm systems to affect the region this week will approach from the south. Chances for precipitation will increase through the afternoon and become likely overnight. Temperature profiles at the start of the event will support light rain/snow mix before transitioning to all rain for the city overnight. High temperatures should top off in the upper-30s.

Wednesday – rain likely throughout the day, increasing in coverage and intensity through the morning into the afternoon. High temperatures will be warm in the upper-40s.

Thursday – the heaviest rains with this storm system are forecast to occur during the overnight hours Wednesday going into Thursday. Showers are still possible Thursday morning with most precipitation ending during the afternoon. A warm front will pass Wednesday night, which will help support mild temperatures in mid-50s.

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Friday – a trailing cold front from the storm above passes through late Thursday, and in the wake of this cold front, skies will start clearing Friday with temperatures cooling off, and highs only around 40ºF.

Cooler to End February

A cooler than normal temperature trend is likely to occur to end the month and to start March.

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NYC Weekend Weather – Feb 18, 2016

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This weekend will be uneventful in terms of sensible weather, and will stand in stark contrast to last weekend in terms of temperatures. As you’ll recall, we had high temperatures last Sunday around 10ºF – this Sunday high temperatures may be 40ºF warmer than that, near 50ºF. Looking ahead, though, there is a chance for a mid-week storm next week, and it would appear that there’ll be another downward temperature trend to end the month, perhaps lasting into the beginning of March as well.

Rest of today – sunny skies belie cold temperatures with highs only hitting the mid-30s today.

Friday – about the same in terms of temperature, but with increasing clouds throughout the day as a warm front approaches from the west. There may be some scattered rain during the overnight hours going into Saturday, although the bulk of this storm system is expected to pass well to the north.

Saturday – much warmer with southwesterly flow behind the warm front referenced above. High temperatures expected to be around 50ºF with mostly sunny skies.

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Sunday – slightly cooler with high temperature in the upper-40s.

Monday – increasing clouds with high temperatures in the mid-upper 40s.

Cooler to End the Month

Looking ahead to next week, temperatures are expected to be just about normal to perhaps a little below, which would mean about 35-40ºF.

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NYC Weather Update – Feb 15, 2016

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After a brief deep freeze, we’ll see a significant change in the weather with a complex storm system that will affect the area to start the week, bringing a mix of precipitation along with much warmer temperatures. Things quiet down by mid-week, and temperatures moderate towards more normal levels.

Rest of today – cloudy with temperatures rising into the low-mid 30s. Flurries have already begun falling in some parts of the city. Snow will become more steady and increase in coverage during the course of the afternoon. For those of you who do not have the day off, it’s shaping up to be a messy commute with snow transitioning to a wintry mix, with periods of freezing rain during the evening commute. Prior to the transition from snow, areas along the coast could pick up 1-2″ of snow, with higher totals in the interior north and west.

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Tuesday – after a brief dip in temperatures early on during the overnight hours, temperatures will actually start increasing as a warm front passes through. Since the ground itself is still quite cold due to the deep freeze this past weekend, freezing rain and wintry mix will still be lingering around until temperatures start to climb well into the mid-upper 30s. At that point, we’ll transition over to all rain, and periods of moderate to heavy rain will likely affect the area Tuesday afternoon into the evening hours as a cold front pushes through. Temperatures will be very warm Tuesday, with highs topping out in the mid-50s – 15-20ºF above normal for this time of year.

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Wednesday – high pressure starts to build back in after the storm system moves out Tuesday. Temperatures cool off back into the mid-40s, with clearing skies.

Thursday – cooler, with high temperature around 40ºF and sunny skies.

 

 

NYC Weekend Weather – Feb 11, 2016

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The weather headline for this weekend will be bitterly cold temperatures that may have you reconsidering any plans to be outdoors during Valentine’s Day. The incoming airmass will definitely be the coldest of the year and the season thus far. The good news for us is that this Arctic airmass does not stick around for long, with temperatures expected to rebound nicely by early-mid week next week.

Rest of today – will be a preview of the cold coming our way with temperatures only topping out in the upper-20s. Scattered snow showers are possible (some of these snow showers are actually remnants of lake effect snows occurring hundreds of miles to our north and west). With west winds blowing in the 20-30mph range, wind chill will make it feel like 15-20ºF out there.

Friday – an Arctic cold front swings through overnight into Friday. Overnight lows will be in the upper-teens in the city and in the low-teens further north and west. High temperatures should rest in the mid-20s with increasing cloud cover as another impulse of energy makes its way in for Saturday.

Saturday – there will be a slight chance for snow showers overnight Friday into Saturday. Low temperatures will be only in the mid-teens, and with winds expected to pick up, wind chill values will hover in the single digits. Daytime highs Saturday will struggle to break 20ºF in the city. Northwest winds 25-30mph will lead to wind chills again only in the teens. As an impulse of energy pushes through Saturday morning, there may be some scattered snow showers before skies clear and things dry out.

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Sunday – overnight lows Saturday into Sunday are going to be the coldest we’ve seen all year, with a low temperature in the city forecast at a mere 2ºF! Wind chill advisories will likely be posted for this period, with widespread below zero wind chills likely. Temperatures don’t rebound much during the day Sunday, with high temperatures only in the upper-teens.

Monday (President’s Day) – this is when the recovery in temperatures begins with high temperatures expected to go back up to around freezing. The next storm system looks like it will be moving through Tuesday, but it will also be accompanied by a much warmer airmass.

Warming Up Next Week

40ºF doesn’t sound all that warm, but you’ll welcome that next week as we see a return to above normal temperatures.

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NYC Weather Update – Feb 8, 2016

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The groundhogs may end up being right, and we could get an early spring this year, but winter won’t be relinquishing its grasp this week. Multiple storms will be impacting the area throughout the first half of the week, resulting in multiple rounds of snow up through Wednesday. Luckily for us, this snow is expected to be mostly on the light side for NYC, although areas east of the city could be getting 8-10″ of snow just with today’s storm. So, if you like winter weather, and snow that you don’t have to shovel, this is your week.

Rest of today – snow showers have started falling over the city in the last hour or so. Light accumulations of 2-3″ maximum are expected in the city, with much higher totals as you move east. The city is only going to get brushed by the western fringe of this coastal storm that’s passing, and snow should taper off by 1PM today. In a very similar setup to last week’s storm, areas east of the city will get the bulk of the snow today. Temperatures will be gradually dropping during the day into the low-30s with evaporative

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Tuesday – a second storm system forms offshore of the Mid-Atlantic overnight, and spins up another round of snow for us tomorrow. Snow should start falling after daybreak, with another 1-2″ possible here in the city. High temperatures should top out in the low-30s.

Wednesday – unsettled weather continues Wednesday with the potential for more light snow during the day, although temperatures could be a little warmer in the upper-30s.

Thursday – things finally start calming down with the chances for snow diminishing, though skies will still be cloudy with high temperatures near freezing.

After Thursday, we are expecting a deep freeze with the passage of an Arctic front going into the weekend.

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