Category Archives: Climate

NYC Weekend Weather – Feb 11, 2016

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The weather headline for this weekend will be bitterly cold temperatures that may have you reconsidering any plans to be outdoors during Valentine’s Day. The incoming airmass will definitely be the coldest of the year and the season thus far. The good news for us is that this Arctic airmass does not stick around for long, with temperatures expected to rebound nicely by early-mid week next week.

Rest of today – will be a preview of the cold coming our way with temperatures only topping out in the upper-20s. Scattered snow showers are possible (some of these snow showers are actually remnants of lake effect snows occurring hundreds of miles to our north and west). With west winds blowing in the 20-30mph range, wind chill will make it feel like 15-20ºF out there.

Friday – an Arctic cold front swings through overnight into Friday. Overnight lows will be in the upper-teens in the city and in the low-teens further north and west. High temperatures should rest in the mid-20s with increasing cloud cover as another impulse of energy makes its way in for Saturday.

Saturday – there will be a slight chance for snow showers overnight Friday into Saturday. Low temperatures will be only in the mid-teens, and with winds expected to pick up, wind chill values will hover in the single digits. Daytime highs Saturday will struggle to break 20ºF in the city. Northwest winds 25-30mph will lead to wind chills again only in the teens. As an impulse of energy pushes through Saturday morning, there may be some scattered snow showers before skies clear and things dry out.

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Sunday – overnight lows Saturday into Sunday are going to be the coldest we’ve seen all year, with a low temperature in the city forecast at a mere 2ºF! Wind chill advisories will likely be posted for this period, with widespread below zero wind chills likely. Temperatures don’t rebound much during the day Sunday, with high temperatures only in the upper-teens.

Monday (President’s Day) – this is when the recovery in temperatures begins with high temperatures expected to go back up to around freezing. The next storm system looks like it will be moving through Tuesday, but it will also be accompanied by a much warmer airmass.

Warming Up Next Week

40ºF doesn’t sound all that warm, but you’ll welcome that next week as we see a return to above normal temperatures.

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NYC Weather Update – Feb 8, 2016

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The groundhogs may end up being right, and we could get an early spring this year, but winter won’t be relinquishing its grasp this week. Multiple storms will be impacting the area throughout the first half of the week, resulting in multiple rounds of snow up through Wednesday. Luckily for us, this snow is expected to be mostly on the light side for NYC, although areas east of the city could be getting 8-10″ of snow just with today’s storm. So, if you like winter weather, and snow that you don’t have to shovel, this is your week.

Rest of today – snow showers have started falling over the city in the last hour or so. Light accumulations of 2-3″ maximum are expected in the city, with much higher totals as you move east. The city is only going to get brushed by the western fringe of this coastal storm that’s passing, and snow should taper off by 1PM today. In a very similar setup to last week’s storm, areas east of the city will get the bulk of the snow today. Temperatures will be gradually dropping during the day into the low-30s with evaporative

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Tuesday – a second storm system forms offshore of the Mid-Atlantic overnight, and spins up another round of snow for us tomorrow. Snow should start falling after daybreak, with another 1-2″ possible here in the city. High temperatures should top out in the low-30s.

Wednesday – unsettled weather continues Wednesday with the potential for more light snow during the day, although temperatures could be a little warmer in the upper-30s.

Thursday – things finally start calming down with the chances for snow diminishing, though skies will still be cloudy with high temperatures near freezing.

After Thursday, we are expecting a deep freeze with the passage of an Arctic front going into the weekend.

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NYC Weekend Weather – Feb 4, 2016

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We have had a very warm start to the month of February, and it sure does feel like the groundhogs were right that there will an early spring. Even if that is to be the case, we are still technically in the depths of winter, and the weather over the next couple of weeks will remind us of that fact. The end of this week and this weekend will be relatively quiet on the weather front, but looking ahead at the beginning of next week, there is a potential for a coastal storm that could bring us some more snow.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy with some breaks of sun, warm but with temperatures dropping through the 50s during the day.

Friday – the cold front that passed through yesterday will stall out at sea, but close enough to us that another impulse of low pressure moving along it could bring some light snow to southern and eastern portions of the NYC region. Light, wet, accumulating snow is possible for NYC and Long Island. Depending on the storm track, some areas of eastern Long Island could pick up 3″, while areas west closer to the city see a coating to an inch overnight. During the day Friday, temperatures will cool off noticeably into the low-40s and the winds will pick up as skies clear.

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Saturday – a nice day, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the low-mid 40s.

Sunday – essentially a clone of Saturday in terms of sensible weather, mostly sunny, highs in the low-mid 40s.

 

Cooling Off the Next Couple Weeks

It is technically supposed to be the coldest stretch of the year climatologically, so it makes sense that there should be some cooler temperatures coming. In fact, Climate Prediction Center does have normal to below normal temperatures (normal would be in the mid-30s) for the area the next couple of weeks.

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NYC Weekend Weather – Jan 29, 2016

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You’d be forgiven if you didn’t believe that a record-setting Nor’easter blizzard happened less than a week ago. A week of much above average temperatures and warm weather has quickly melted more than half of the snowpack that was left after the blizzard dropped 26.8″ (.1″ short of the all time record) in Central Park, breaking the single day storm total snowfall record with a new high of 26.6″. Except, of course, those huge snow mounds that are trapping your parked car. Warm weather, with high temperatures near or above 50ºF this weekend means that even more of this snow will melt away. Whatever’s left will likely be completely washed away mid-week next week when we’re expected to hit temperatures near 60ºF with thunderstorms possible.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy with a high near 40ºF. A passing rain/snow shower caused by a weak passing disturbance in the upper atmosphere is possible this afternoon around 1PM.

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Saturday – brief clearing caused by an area of high pressure overnight will give way again to increasing clouds with high temperatures around 40ºF again.

Sunday – the high pressure moves quickly off to our east Sunday, allowing for clockwise return flow from the southwest to bring in warmer temperatures in the upper 40s under partly sunny skies.

Monday – warm temperatures continue with highs topping out around 50ºF and partly sunny skies.

 

Cooldown Coming

Don’t get too used to the warm temperatures because after mid-week next week, cold air returns to the Eastern United States for a period.

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Blizzard Brings Drought Relief

One of the best parts about this blizzard was that it brought along some much needed precipitation precisely to areas of the region that most needed it. As you’ll see below, since the blizzard past the area of New York State experiencing moderate drought has decreased from 6.80% to 2.04%, largely because areas of moderate drought in the NYC region and Long Island have gotten slammed with huge amounts of snow that will be replenishing the local watersheds as it melts.

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NYC Christmas Weather – Dec 22, 2015

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Winter officially began yesterday night at 11:49PM, though you wouldn’t be able to tell given the incredibly warm weather we’re experiencing and will continue to experience right through Christmas Day. Forget snow – we’re talking thunderstorms possibly happening on Christmas Eve. Hope Santa’s sleigh is electrically insulated!

Rest of today – periods of rain, heavy at times, and cloudy with high temperatures in the low-60s. Timing of a second round of heavier rain seems to be in the 1-3PM window, after which things will calm down.

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Wednesday – another impulse of energy will be arriving Wednesday and we’ll get another shot of rain along with it. The timing of the heaviest rain tomorrow appears to be later in the afternoon, around 4PM and the evening rush. High temperatures very similar to today in the low-60s.

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Thursday (Christmas Eve) – a substantial surge of warm, humid air from the Gulf ahead of a cold front (and around the western edge of a high pressure center located in the Western Atlantic) will almost certainly lead to record high temperatures being crushed across the region. We are talking the possibility of seeing high temperatures topping 70ºF, which for perspective is close to 30ºF above average for this time of year. Because of the warmth and humidity, the atmosphere will be unstable enough to support isolated thunderstorms as a cold front pushes through, though coverage will be isolated at best.

Friday (Christmas) – after the cold front moves through Thursday, we’ll cool off a bit and dry out, but we’re still talking about temperatures easily in the low-60s which could lead to more records being broken. For those who love the milder temperatures, this is certainly a big gift.

NYC Weekend Weather – Dec 18, 2015

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We get a taste of cool weather this weekend, with high temperatures at or slightly below normal for Saturday and Sunday, before we rebound strongly into much above average and possibly record-breaking warmth once again by mid-week next week. Saturday in particular will be feel quite brisk, with a stiff wind from the west dropping wind chills into the 30s. There could even be a couple snow flurries north and west of the city!

Rest of today – mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies with high temperatures hovering in the mid-50s. Temperatures will fall rapidly to near freezing in the city overnight.

Saturday – the low pressure system that was responsible for the soaking rains Thursday will continue to intensify as it moves over the Canadian Maritimes Saturday. As a high pressure center builds to the south, a tightening pressure gradient will yield stiff winds in the 15-25mph range on Saturday. This, combined with a blast of cold air behind the cold front that passed yesterday, will result in high temperatures only in the low-40s, with wind chills making it feel like the 30s throughout the day. There could be enough instability in the atmosphere to spark a couple flurries over the interior!

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Sunday – high pressure will remain in control Sunday, so expect sunny skies, and with the high pressure center closer to us, the pressure gradient will diminish. Winds should likewise calm down, and it will feel considerably less raw with high temperatures in the mid-40s.

Monday – temperatures will jump into the low-mid 50s as the high pressure above moves to our east and return flow of warmer air from the south and southwest begins to take hold.

 

White Christmas? Not a chance.

Looking ahead at the week of Christmas coming up – not only will there be no chance of a white Christmas on the Eastern Seaboard, we could be looking at record-breaking warmth again with high temperatures in the low-mid 60s! The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook and 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook are both strongly confident (> 90% probability) that we will see warmer than average temperatures.

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NYC Weather Update – Dec 14, 2015

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Temperatures remain very warm to start the week, following a weekend of recording-breaking warm weather this past weekend. However, a true cooldown into temperatures within normal ranges for this time of year (high temperatures in the mid-40s) won’t occur until late this week. When that cool down comes around, we could even be looking at a few snow flurries!

Rest of today – widespread fog has taken hold across the region. Fog is expected to lift by around noon, however, generally cloudy conditions are likely to persist through the afternoon. Warm again with high temperatures in the low-mid 60s – higher if clouds break in any areas inland. Later this evening, we get our best shot at a round of showers and even a couple embedded thunderstorms as a cold front pushes through. Timing for this precipitation looks to be around 8PM this evening.

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Tuesday – behind the cold front, skies will clear, giving us a much brighter, but also windier day Tuesday. Still, temperatures remain warm, with highs again approaching the low-mid 60s.

Wednesday – cooler temperatures finally kick in with high temperatures dropping into the mid-50s under mostly sunny skies.

Thursday – a secondary surface low will form over the Southeast, associated with a stronger low pressure that will be over the Hudson Bay area. This low brings us our next chance at precipitation, and will yield a mostly cloudy day, with increasing chances for rain in the afternoon as the day progresses.

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NYC Weekend Weather – Dec 10, 2015

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The weekend coming up will see some unusually warm weather coming our way. In fact, high temperatures on Sunday may well approach record-breaking territory at 60ºF or even higher. This near-record warm trend won’t last through next week, so definitely take advantage of this weekend for some outdoor activities.

Rest of today – partly sunny with highs in the upper 50s.

Friday – with a warm front passing through overnight, areas of fog may develop early Friday morning. Once the fog clears, we should see mostly sunny skies, and high temperatures will again be in the upper-50s to near 60ºF.
Saturday – temperatures continue to warm into the low-60s on Saturday with partly sunny skies. High pressure firmly entrenched over the Southeast will be the primary driver allowing a surge of warm air to enter our region.
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Sunday – we could see record-breaking warmth across the region Sunday, with this high pressure still in control and a cold front approaching from the west, increasing the flow of warm air into the area. High temperatures should easily break 60ºF. If cloud cover is less than currently expected, records are likely to be broken.
Monday – the aforementioned cold front makes its approach across the region, bringing us a good chance at some meaningful rain. High temperatures preceding the cold front’s passage are still expected to be quite warm, near 60ºF.
Short-term Temperature Outlook & El Niño’s Impact
Although temperatures will cool somewhat after the cold front passes on Monday, they will nonetheless remain a good deal above average. Seasonal average high temperatures for this time in December are in the low-40s! Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 temperature outlook has our region at a near certain probability of seeing above average temperatures.
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This coheres well with generally understood impacts of an El Niño winter in North America.
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NYC Weekend Weather – Dec 04, 2015

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A quite and mild weekend is in store for the region with high pressure in control of the weather throughout the period. Temperatures should climb steadily as winds shift and persist from the southwest. We could see high temperatures near 60ºF by Sunday.

Rest of today – clear to mostly sunny, with highs around 50.

Saturday – sunny, with high temperatures in the low-50s.

Sunday – milder, and sunny again with high temperatures in the upper-50s to near 60ºF.

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Monday – clouds look to be increasing on Monday with a storm system approaching from the south expected to pass on Tuesday. Temperatures will be cooler in the mid-50s.

Seasonal Climate Outlooks

As we are entering into the winter, it’s worth looking ahead at what the seasonal climate out looks are from the Climate Prediction Center.

Drought conditions are expected to improve over many areas of the nation, and the persistent moderate drought in our region is forecast to end.

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Temperature and precipitation are forecast to be above normal for the region. As you’ll note from the images below, some fairly significant deviations from normal are expected across large portions of the United States, due in large part to the effects of a strong El Niño that’s been gripping the Eastern and Central Pacific for months now.

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The chart below shows you the sea surface temperature anomalies for the Pacific – notice that a large swathe of the equatorial Pacific from about the international date line east is experiencing extremely warm temperatures for this time of year – a full 5ºC above normal in large areas. This is why climate forecasters can be more confident than usual in their outlooks for temperature and precipitation this season.

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NYC Weekend Weather – Nov 19, 2015

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A soaking rainstorm passes through the area later today and then paves the way for cooler, drier air to take over this weekend. By the end of this weekend, temperatures will only be in the low-50s and even upper-40s going into Monday. Looking ahead, temperatures return to normal ranges in the low-50s next week before another warmup around Thanksgiving. Currently, it looks as though the first week of December will open up with cooler than average temperatures.

Rest of today – cloudy and warm with a steady wind from the southeast. Scattered light rain is occurring across parts of the area now. The heavier rain should begin falling later this afternoon (around the PM rush) as more moisture works its way in from the south and the storm system closes in, providing better atmospheric conditions for rain. The rains are still much needed for most of the Tri-State area (in particular Souther Connecticut and Long Island) that remains in the grip of a moderate drought.

High Resolution Rapid Refresh model simulated radar for 5PM EST
High Resolution Rapid Refresh model simulated radar for 5PM EST

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Friday – rain ends overnight into Friday morning. Skies clear rapidly with temperatures topping out in the mid-50s.

Saturday – high pressure builds in behind the frontal boundary that will pass early Friday. This high pressure will shift winds to the west and then northwest, bringing in cooler, drier air from Canada. Temperatures will only be around 50 on Saturday as a result.

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Sunday – pretty much a clone of Saturday, mostly sunny skies, cool with highs around 50ºF.

Monday – cooler, with high temperatures that may struggle to hit 50ºF.