The weather story this week will feature a storm system that will be drawing on the remnant moisture from Hurricane Patricia and producing some heavy rain on Wednesday as it passes through the region. Aside from a wet day Wednesday, the remainder of the week looks to be dry with decently warm temperatures.
Rest of today – clear with high temperatures near 60.
Tuesday – mostly sunny with clouds increasing later in the day. High temperatures again near 60.
Wednesday – a low pressure center is expected to form over the Great Lakes region and strengthen Wednesday. A warm front attached to this low pressure center will pass through the region late Wednesday. Increasing chance for more widespread rain as the day progresses with a high temperature in the mid-60s. Some urban flooding could occur. Most of the heaviest rain will likely be falling in the late evening and overnight hours.
Thursday – could see a few showers in the morning, but then skies should begin to clear and allow for temperatures to warm up into the mid-60s again before a cold front drops through.
Drought Update
We’re hoping for the rains Wednesday to make a dent in the stubborn moderate drought that continues to cling to the metro area, in particular Long Island.
The three day weekend ahead will feature some idyllic autumn weather with plenty of sun for outdoor activities if you’re heading out of town on a getaway. The only blemish in this otherwise stretch of superb weather will be a round of showers and thunderstorms entering the city Friday afternoon and passing through Friday night.
Rest of today – we’re starting off with mostly cloudy skies, but skies should clear rapidly within the next couple hours. After that, we get a mostly sunny afternoon with high temperatures near 70. Clouds re-enter the picture later this evening in advance of an approaching disturbance that will bring us rain on Friday.
Friday – overnight tonight, a warm front will push through the area, such that by Friday morning, winds will switch to the southwest. This will allow for warm air to surge up ahead of a cold front that will be passing through Friday night. This setup is favorable for the possible development of thunderstorms ahead of the cold front. Chances for rain increase steadily Friday into Friday night. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies with high temperatures in the upper-70s to near 80.
Saturday – the cold front moves quickly through the area Friday and by Saturday, skies should clear up, while temperatures cool off into the mid-60s.
Sunday – another picture perfect autumn day with high temperatures in the mid-60s and ample sunshine.
Monday (Columbus Day) – stretch of nice weather continues into Columbus Day, with temperatures slightly warmer in the upper-60s to around 70.
Drought Update
The drenching rains two weeks ago helped alleviate drought conditions over large portions of the Northeast. However, moderate drought conditions stubbornly persist in the NYC metro area, especially in Long Island.
Missed a couple updates the last week or so. The weather has been fairly uneventful during this stretch, with the second week of September featuring much above temperatures, while this past week has been more seasonable with respect to temperatures. This weekend, the pleasant, fall-like weather continues, with Saturday being the better half of the weekend.
Rest of today – high clouds have decreased in coverage somewhat since earlier this morning, but with an area of low pressure off the Southeastern US edging northward, cloud coverage may increase again later today. There’s also an onshore flow pattern with wind coming from the northeast, which will keep high temperatures suppressed in the low-70s.
Saturday – Canadian high pressure builds north of us, keeping the area of disturbed weather that’s moving northward from the Southeast at bay. This should result in a mostly sunny day. However, with the high pressure center to the north, onshore winds will continue from the northeast, leading to high temperatures again only in the low-70s.
Sunday – the high pressure above will move southeast offshore of New England by the end of the day Sunday. With the high out of the way, the low pressure to its south will be able to develop again. This should yield a mostly cloudy day with the possibility for rain later in the evening hours. High temperatures remain on the cool side in the low-70s.
Monday – the chance for rain increases Monday with the high pressure completely out of the picture and low pressure moving in. This rain is much needed as a moderate drought persists in the NYC region (in particular Long Island). High temperatures will be warmer with winds from the southwest, temperatures may approach 80.
Regional Drought Worsens
The tradeoff for the long stretch of dry and pleasant weather is that moderate drought conditions have returned to areas which had been close to being drought-free last month. Moderate drought has redeveloped over much of the NYC metro area, while a persistent drought has continued to affect eastern Long Island. In fact, since August, the percentage of New York State affected by moderate drought has more than doubled.
The weather story for the first part of this week will be a prolonged heavy rain event occurring Tuesday, delivering parts of the region some much needed precipitation. Temperatures will remain slightly below normal through Thursday, first because of the rain and clouds and then due to the influence of high pressure to our west.
Rest of today – NYC remains under mostly sunny skies, however, cloud cover is building to our west, so we could end up with more clouds later this afternoon. It will be a noticeably more humid day, although temperatures will still only top out in the low-80s.
Tuesday – rain should begin falling in the early overnight hours, and looks to persist through the morning and into the early afternoon hours. The heaviest rain seems likely to fall during the morning hours. Thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, and while the atmospheric conditions will not be very favorable (timing of the strongest lift will occur early in the day before any substantial daytime heating, which will be diminished due to cloud cover anyway), a few strong storms could still pop up in the morning. Some areas could see some isolated flash flooding if storm cells end up training over the same spots. Under the cloud cover and rain, high temperatures should be limited again to the low-80s.
North American Model High Resolution simulated radar for 11AM EDT Tuesday
Wednesday – rain will have cleared out after the passage of the cold front responsible for Tuesday’s storms. Behind this cold front, high pressure will set up over the Ohio Valley, bringing in cool, dry air. Temperatures will be quite comfortable in the low-mid 80s with low humidity.
Thursday – the pattern of cool, dry weather continues with another day of sunny skies and high temperatures slightly below normal in the low-80s.
Drought Relief
A slight/moderate drought continues to cling to areas of Long Island and costal Connecticut, as you can see from the map below. It does appear that this upcoming Tuesday storm will bring some much needed rain to these particular areas. As you’ll also note from the map of forecast precipitation totals for Tuesday, some of the highest totals are expected precisely in the areas that need them the most.
Weather Prediction Center’s Quantitative Precipitation Forecast for total precipitation between 8AM EDT Tuesday and 8AM EDT Wednesday
The end of this week and weekend will be characterized by comfortable conditions and seasonably warm temperatures. A cold front from Canada will be approaching from the west by Sunday, however, this frontal boundary looks to weaken as it nears the area. There should be a small chance for showers and thunderstorms, but it is likely most areas stay dry through the weekend.
Rest of today – high pressure over the Ohio Valley will yield sunny skies, with a high in the mid-80s. Dry air moving from the west will make for a pleasant feel today.
Friday – high pressure remains in control tomorrow, providing for conditions almost identical to today, with highs again in the mid-80s under sunny skies with low humidity.
Saturday – although the high pressure center will weaken somewhat as it moves east on Saturday, it will still dominate our sensible weather, leading to yet another day of basically the same weather conditions with highs in the mid-80s and plenty of sun.
Sunday – with the high continuing to weaken and move to the southeast, we get a chance for some afternoon showers and thunderstorms associated with a frontal boundary originating in Canada moving into the region. Rain chances aren’t all that high, though, so it’s likely most areas stay dry. Highs again in the mid-80s with increasing cloud cover.
Global Forecast System model output for Sunday at 11AM EDT
Drought Update
Drought conditions over New York state have drastically abated since the beginning of the month, especially in upstate regions. However, moderate drought persists over parts of Long Island.
Drought index for New York State, areas in yellow indicate slight drought, while areas shaded in tan indicate moderate drought.
We have struggled to reach normal temperatures this week, with plenty of rain and Wednesday as the only sunny break. We end this week with more cool, damp weather, before transitioning to warmer, drier conditions this weekend. Portions of the area received anywhere between 2-4″ of rain between Sunday night and Tuesday night, which will help improve drought conditions, however, these rainfall totals also led to flash flooding across large portions of the area.
Rest of today – cloudy, with a small chance for isolated light showers, cool with temperatures topping out only in the low-mid 60s, about 10ºF below normal for this time of year.
Atmospheric setup favoring the cool, cloudy, damp weather
Friday – more clouds and cool weather, with this easterly onshore flow regime sticking around for one more day. High temperatures will again be only in the mid-60s, much below normal. There is a slightly higher chance Friday for scattered showers, but nothing like the soaking we got earlier this week.
Saturday – some improvement in conditions will take place Saturday as high pressure starts building from the west. Partly sunny skies may give way to more sun, with high temperatures warmer near 80.
Sunday – high pressure moves to our east, allowing us to enjoy another pleasant, dry day, with high temperatures in the mid-70s.
Monday – a frontal system approaches the area. Ahead of the front, warmer air will flow in from the southwest, giving us temperatures at or above normal near 80ºF. As the front nears, thunderstorms and showers are possible across the region.
Arctic Jet Stream Slowing Leading to Increased Incidence and Duration of Extreme Weather?
The massive quantities of snow that fell over the Northeast this past winter, the flooding rains over Texas last month, the enduring drought over California, and the asphalt-melting heatwave in India have all raised the question of what is causing this apparently increased incidence of long-duration extreme weather events. One possible explanation offered by researchers at Rutgers University is that the polar jet stream circling the Arctic has been slowing.
Jet streams are generated by two factors: the rotational energy of the Earth spinning on its axis, and the pressure gradient between two airmasses of varying temperatures. In the case of the polar jet circling the Arctic, rapid warming of the Arctic over the last couple decades has led to a decreased thermal and pressure gradient between air over the Arctic and air directly to the south. Researchers posit that this effect has led to a slowing of the polar jet stream. Since the jet stream is responsible for moving large (synoptic) scale weather patterns, any affect on its speed and orientation can have dramatic impacts for widespread regions of the world. In this case, the slowing polar jet stream is theorized as the mechanism behind the prolonged effects of the weather events mentioned above.
We start the week off with some much needed rain and a noticeable cool down in temperatures. Scattered thunderstorms increase in coverage later today and transition into more widespread showers that are expected to persist into the overnight hours. The start of the week will be rainy, cloudy, and cool under the influence of a Canadian maritime airmass. By midweek, we get back into more fair conditions with the sun returning and temperatures back in the mid-70s.
Rest of today – the Storm Prediction Center has placed areas of Northeastern New Jersey in a slight risk area for severe thunderstorms later. Based on latest radar trends and the High Resolution Rapid Refresh model’s output, it would appear that thunderstorms are likely to develop over portions of New Jersey highlighted in the slight risk area, then track eastwards into the NYC metro area later this afternoon into the early evening hours. With breaks in the clouds for sun, we’ll hit temperatures in the low-80s, which when coupled with ample moisture, should support thunderstorms with the potential for heavy rain.
High Resolution Rapid Refresh model output for 8PM EST
Monday – all the activity occurring today and going into the overnight hours is associated with a cold front that is moving south into our area. As this cold front pushes through, east-northeast winds will set up, allowing a cooler, Canadian maritime airmass in. This will translate into cooler than average temperatures only in the mid-60s with showers likely throughout the day.
Tuesday – wet, cool weather continues Tuesday with highs again only in the mid-60s and the ongoing chance for rain showers throughout the day. This extended period of rain from later today into Tuesday should bring some relief to the moderate drought conditions over parts of the Northeast, with the potential for as much as 4″ of rain over the period in certain parts of the region.
Possible total rainfall over the next 48 hours
Wednesday – high pressure finally builds back in Wednesday, pushing away the rainy weather, and yielding pleasant temperatures in the low-mid 70s under partly cloudy skies.
Thursday – slightly warmer than Wednesday, with highs in the upper-70s in NYC.
Yesterday, portions of our area got some much needed rain from a round of thunderstorms associated with a prefrontal trough. Today, we get another shot at rain and thunderstorms as the primary cold front actually pushes through. Behind that front, things cool off and dry out for Friday, before the humidity returns on Saturday. Things should stay dry Saturday, but we will see a more substantial chance at widespread rainfall Sunday with the passage of another cold front. Also of note, the National Hurricane Center released its outlook for this year’s Atlantic hurricane season, calling for a below normal season.
Rest of today – clouds give way to sun with warm temperatures in the mid-80s. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to form later this afternoon. The atmospheric setup today is a bit more favorable to showers and thunderstorms being able to persist into NYC and western Long Island, unlike yesterday when these showers essentially died out as they hit the stable marine air layer near the coast. The exact location of where storms form and move into will still be tricky to pinpoint even at this time.
High Resolution Rapid Refresh model output simulated radar for 3PM EST today.
Friday – once the frontal boundary passes through later today, it will usher in a much cooler and drier airmass for Friday. Temperatures should top out in the mid-upper 70s (still 5-10ºF above normal) under sunny skies.
Saturday – temperatures will be slightly warmer in the low-80s on Saturday with an increase in humidity as well. There could be a slight chance for scattered thunderstorms later in the day as well.
Sunday – another cold front passes through the region Sunday, bringing with it the chance for more substantial and widespread showers. Temperatures will also cool off to around normal, in the low-mid 70s.
2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
The National Hurricane Center released its initial outlook for the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season that officially starts on June 1st. As you’ll see from the graphic below, forecasters are calling for a below normal season with 6-11 named storms (tropical storms with sustained winds greater than 39mph). Of these named storms, forecasters think 3-6 have a chance to intensify into hurricanes (maximum sustained winds greater than 74mph), and of those hurricanes 0-2 could become major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher, maximum sustained winds greater than 111mph).
The primary reason for the 70% probability of a below normal season is the disruptive effect of El Niño in the Eastern Pacific, which is known to alter the pressure and air currents over the tropical Atlantic, dampening the formation of hurricanes. On the other hand, the above average sea surface temperatures in the Pacific associated with El Niño are expected to induce an above average Pacific Hurricane/Typhoon season. Read the full statement from the NHC here: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2015/20150527-noaa-hurricane-outlook-below-normal-atlantic-hurricane-season-is-likely-this-year.html
It certainly does feel as though Memorial Day 2015 has been the unofficial start of summer, given the warm and humid temperatures we’ve had from Sunday onwards. The warm, late-June like temperature trend continues through mid-week, with some chance for thunderstorms. Rain in any form would be most welcome, given that the region has been placed in a region of moderate drought as of this week.
Rest of today – the Bermuda high, more typical of mid-summer, brings us very warm and humid high temperatures in the mid-upper 80s, more than 15ºF above average for this time of year. If you like the heat, go out and enjoy it because we might see showers and thunderstorms both Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.
Wednesday – a weak cold front approaches from the west, bringing with it a chance for showers and thunderstorms. The critical question for NYC will be how long organized storms can stay together as they enter into influence of cooler, maritime air nearer to the coast. Temperatures will remain warm in the low-mid 80s with clouds and some breaks of sun. As is generally the case in these setups, the more sun we can get in the afternoon ahead of the frontal bou
North American Model high resolution simulated radar image for 8PM EST Wednesday
Thursday – we get another shot at thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening, with highs likely topping out around 80 under mostly cloudy skies.
Moderate Drought for the Region Forecast to Persist
We’ve had an remarkable run of sunny, rain-free days, and above average temperatures for much of May (and indeed even going back a couple of months), and while that’s translated to pleasant weather for outdoor activities, it also has meant that we’ve entered into a stretch of moderate drought. We had a stretch of no rain for 23 consecutive days, earlier this month, which definitely didn’t help things. According to the USDA Drought Monitor, Central Park recorded 7.12″ of rain from March 1st through May 19th, which is only about 63% of average for this time of year.
While we are only in the lowest tier of drought and were just added to this category this week, these drought conditions bear watching. We hope to get some rain out of this week, and it looks like more storms are on the way this weekend, however, the drought forecast for our region looks to have the drought persist through this summer.
A downright summer-like stretch of weather that started this week will get mirrored again towards the end of this week and going into next week. After clearing out clouds today, the remainder of this week should see dry and sunnier weather with highs in the mid-upper 70s. This weekend, we are looking at the possibility of temperatures near 80, nearly 15º above normal. We also have what could turn into the 2015 season’s first tropical depression/storm churning up off the coast of Florida now.
Rest of today – a very slow-moving, largely stationary front pushed through last night, but is still sitting in our vicinity. Along this front, remnants of more organized convective activity will be able to slide east during this afternoon and evening. While the chances are not high, there could still be an occasional shower during the latter half of today, high temperatures will be somewhat subdued around 70 with the clouds in place.
Thursday – clouds will clear out tomorrow and we should have a sunny day with temperatures in the mid-70s.
Friday – a repeat of Thursday, with mostly sunny skies and highs again in the mid-70s.
Saturday – increasing cloud cover, but should still be a pleasant day with temperatures in the upper 70s.
Sandwiched between rain to our south and to our west, but our weather should still remain dry this weekend.
Sunday – warm and pleasant with a high near 80.
Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for next week – still looks like we’ll be getting warmer than normal temps
First Tropical System of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
As I write this, a low pressure system is building up steadily off the east coast of Florida. The National Hurricane Center puts the odds of this system organizing sufficiently to become the first named tropical depression, subtropical, or tropical storm of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Even if this storm does become the first named tropical system, it is unlikely to do much damage as it will have very little time over open water to gain strength before it is forecast to make landfall over the Carolinas later. The most noticeable impact from this storm would be the rain it generates.
