Category Archives: Climate

NYC Weather Update – Mar 27, 2017

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Active weather pattern to start the week brings us multiple chances for rain. Things settle down mid-week, but another chance for rain comes up late week and into the weekend. Beneficial rains and the snow from the last Nor’easter has put a significant dent in drought conditions area wide. It looks like we’ve turned the corner legitimately towards spring with average to above-average temperatures expected for the foreseeable future.

Rest of today – rain tapering off by the early afternoon. Some clearing possible later. High temperatures in the mid-upper 50s.

Tuesday – mild, high temperatures around 60°F, slight chance for rain lingers throughout the day with a cold front approaching from the west.

Wednesday – rain is likely overnight Tuesday into Wednesday as this cold front moves through. On Wendesday itself, after the cold front pushes through, gradual improvement in weather conditions is expected with clouds breaking and a high in the mid-upper 50s.

Thursday – best day out of the week with high temperatures right around average in the low-50s and plenty of sunshine.

 

Temperature, Precipitation Trends and Drought Update

Over the course of the next week to week and a half, we’re expected to see average to slightly above average temperatures along with slightly above average rainfall. This bodes well for the overall drought situation which has seen marked improvement since the region received significant snowfall from the last Nor’easter and winter storm.

NYC Weather Update – Mar 6, 2017

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The week starts off with a thaw from the Arctic cold we experienced over the weekend. We settle into a familiar pattern of a warm front then cold front passage that will see temperatures swing up into the low-60s mid-week before dropping back to seasonable levels towards the late week period.4

Rest of today – mostly sunny, with winds now shifting to the south, high temperatures should reach into the low-40s.

Tuesday – much warmer with high temperatures in the mid-50s, mostly cloudy with a chance for rain due to a cold front approaching. Rain chances increase heading towards the overnight hours.

Wednesday – rain tapering off early, then conditions improving to mostly sunny. High temperatures still forecast to reach the low-60s before the cold front actually passes through.

Thursday – temperatures fall back into the mid-upper 40s behind the cold front with mostly sunny skies.

 

Return to Normal Temperatures to Last

Looking ahead, it appears in the medium term that temperatures will moderate into seasonable mid-40s or lower and stay that way until late in the month. We could see a couple more shots at accumulating snow during this stretch.

 

NYC Weather Update – Feb 27, 2017

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The beginning of this week will somewhat echo the end of last week, with temperatures starting off on the cooler side, then ramping up before the passage of a cold front that could also bring some thunderstorms. After this cold front passes, temperatures take a dive closer to normal levels.

Rest of today – increasing clouds will cap temperatures in the low-50s.

Tuesday – warmer but with increasing chances for rain during the day. High temperatures in the upper-50s.

Wednesday – during the early morning hours, a warm front associated with a low pressure center moving across southern Ontario will push through. This will set the stage for possibly record-breaking warmth during the day. Southwest flow will allow temperatures to steadily climb into the upper-60s and possibly over 70°F. Later in the day, a trailing cold front will make its approach. This will serve as a trigger for showers and thunderstorms to develop late in the day and into the early overnight hours. Some of the storms could approach marginally severe criteria.

Thursday – following the cold front passing through, winds shift to the northwest. This will result in much cooler temperatures dropping through the day into the upper-40s.

 

Cooler Weather Ahead

Looking ahead to the mid-month period, it does appear we may see some cooler than normal temperatures prior to the formal onset of spring.

NYC Weather Update – Feb 20, 2017

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This week will see a marked transition from seasonable high temperatures in the low-40s to a much warmer period mid-late week that will be reminiscent of this past weekend’s record-breaking warmth. The only blemish on this spring preview is a slight chance for rain overnight Tuesday. Looking ahead, it appears March will be far from a lamb this year with a few storms rolling our way.

Rest of today – mild and above average with temperatures in the mid-upper 40s. Clear skies overhead. This will continue overnight and allow for good radiational cooling leading to overnight lows in the low-30s.

Tuesday – seasonable with high temperatures in the low-40s under mostly sunny skies.

Wednesday – a warm up begins as a summer-like high pressure area sets up over Bermuda. This high pressure will induce a southwest flow ahead of a cold front to the west that will push warm air from the Southeast to our region. The result will be increasing clouds but high temperatures near 60°F.

Thursday – even warmer, with high temperatures reaching well into the mid-upper 60s with mostly sunny skies.

 

Warm Temperatures to Continue Through Weekend

I suppose Staten Island Chuck was right when he predicted a short winter, because it looks like above normal temperatures are expected through the end of this month. This weekend, look forward to more temperatures near 60ºF.

NYC Weekend Weather – Feb 17, 2017

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This weekend will be characterized by well above normal temperatures and fair conditions. This warm trend looks to continue into next week, and perhaps beyond. Enjoy the warmth, and the early preview of spring!

Rest of today – normal high temperatures around 40°F with sunny skies.

Saturday – significantly warmer, sunny, with high temperatures in the mid-50s as a warm front pushes through.

Sunday – warm again, possibly warmer than Saturday with temperatures approaching 60°F. High pressure to the southwest will continue to pump warm air from the deep south our way.

Monday – cooler, though still above normal, with high temperature around 50°F and sunny.

 

Warm Trend to Continue

Climate Prediction Center points to a high likelihood for above normal temperatures in the next 6-10 days for much of the Eastern United States. Looking ahead, after a brief cool down to begin next week, temperatures go right back up into the mid-upper 50s by the middle of next week.

NYC Snowstorm Update – Feb 08, 2017

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We’re in for a wild ride over the course of the next 24 hours as our weather goes from possibly record-breaking warmth to what is expected to be the most significant winter storm so far this season. Significant snow accumulations over 6″ and possibly as much as a foot are expected across the region, resulting in a winter storm warning for all of the NYC metro region.

 

Timing

Judging by the amount of sun we’re getting, temperatures will likely hit record-breaking levels in the low-60s in the city today. They will drop steadily to around 50ºF by the evening commute as a cold front pushes through and Arctic air flows in from the north. Overnight, temperatures will continue falling rapidly to around freezing. Precipitation is expected to begin around 3-4AM Thursday here in the city and continue through the early afternoon. Unfortunately, the timing of the heaviest precipitation does look to bring significant impacts to the morning commute.

North American High Resolution simulated radar 1km resolution, tomorrow at 8AM.

 

Impacts

Rain/snow mix to start, but by the morning rush, expecting all snow through the region. Heavy snow at times possibly reaching 1-2″/hr. Some thundersnow could occur. Hazardous travel conditions during the morning rush as plows will have trouble keeping roads clear with traffic and the moderate to heavy snow. Gusty winds could produce near-blizzard conditions with low visibility.

 

Snowfall Totals

Here are some graphics for snowfall totals from our local National Weather Service Forecast office. The general forecast calls for 6″-12″ in the city. The exact extent of totals will depend, as is generally the case with this type of storm, on where the heaviest snow bands set up and for how long they sit over an any given area.

Probabilities for 4″+ and 6″+ of snow respectively

 

Discussion

An shortwave that’s made its way rapidly across the country from the Pacific will move along the cold front that is pushing through today. As it does so, it will spawn a secondary low off the Mid-Atlantic that will strengthen rapidly as it moves over open water. At the same time, plenty of cold air will wrap around the deepening coastal low with high pressure to the west. This will put in place all the ingredients for a classic coastal winter storm for this area. The only thing keeping this storm from being a major blizzard with snowfall totals exceeding 2 feet is the fairly quick pace that it’s expected to move at.

This coastal storm will drive the expected heavy snows tomorrow. Its track is expected to take it just outside the 40ºN 70ºW benchmark, a spot that from a climatological perspective has translated to heavy snow storms for this region.

 

NYC Weekend Weather – Feb 03, 2017

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The weekend starts of with a chill and below average temperatures before a warmup. Temperatures will be above average for the second half of the week. Next chance for precipitation will come with a storm system moving in Tuesday. Looking ahead, expecting that Punxsutaney will be right, and there will be a cooldown again.

Rest of today – clouds decrease slowly. Chilly with high temperatures struggling to hit freezing. Brisk northwest winds will keep windchills below 20ºF.

Saturday – with strong high pressure over the Ohio Valley, we’ll see clear skies. However, since we will be on the east side of this high pressure center, cold air will continue to flow in from Canada, keeping high temperatures at around freezing.

Sunday – as this high pressure moves east, and we end up on the west side of it, clockwise flow around it will bring warmer are to the area, and temperatures will rebound into the low-40s with mostly cloudy skies.

Monday – above average temperatures in the low-40s continue with partly cloudy skies.

 

Drought Improves

Recent beneficial rains and snows have improved the drought situation statewide. However, moderate to severe drought continues to plague the downstate region.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jan 27, 2017

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The weekend period will see a gradual return to seasonably cold temperatures, a departure from the long stretch of above normal warmth we’ve seen the last week or so. A series of weak disturbances will move through the area, but these are not expected to bring much in the way of precipitation.

Rest of today – breezy with west winds of 20mph. Mostly cloudy with high temperatures in the low-40s. A weak disturbance brings a chance of snow flurries, but no accumulation is expected.

Saturday (Lunar New Year) – still above normal with high temperatures in the mid-40s and partly sunny. Not as windy as today, but with a strong low located over Labrador, westerly winds in the 15-20mph range will persist.

Sunday – high temperatures start to fall back to around 40°F. More clouds than sun.

Monday – colder, with high temperatures in the upper-30s and partly sunny skies.

Drought Update

The 1-2″ of rain we picked up during this past week’s Nor’easter, while beneficial, did little to change the drought picture as compared to last week.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jan 20, 2017

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We get a round of light rain late today and overnight. Temperatures warm up Saturday, then moderate Sunday as a storm system approaches from the southwest. Temperatures will remain above normal as this storm system looks set to bring soaking rains Sunday and Monday.

Rest of today – cloudy, with light rain arriving around 3PM and lasting till about midnight. Temperatures will drop from the mid-40s to low-40s overnight.

Saturday – warm, mostly cloudy, with high temperatures in the mid-50s.

Sunday – chances for rain increase in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy otherwise with a high in the upper-40s.

Monday – a low pressure system will be moving off the shore of North Carolina and Virginia. With this strengthening low and a high pressure center over Quebec, a tightening pressure gradient will build resulting in steady and increasing winds. Rain and wind will be constant on Monday with high temperatures in the mid-40s.

Drought Update

Recent storms have brought beneficial rains and snows to the region, but a drought continues, especially in the downstate area. This next storm should continue to help alleviate the drought here.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jan 6, 2017

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The big weather news for the first full weekend of the new year is the deep Arctic chill that will be gripping the area. We should narrowly miss the core what would have been the first substantial Nor’easter of the season Saturday. The chill lasts through the beginning of next week when temperatures rebound back to above normal levels.

Rest of today – cold, with a mix of clouds and sun and a high temperature in the mid-30s. Wind chills in the low-20s.

Saturday – an uncertain scenario unfolds with the Nor’easter mentioned above. The one thing that is certain is that temperatures will be plenty cold to support all snow with highs only in the upper-20s. Two of the main forecast models continue to show a sizable spread in terms of how far east this storm tracks. This will ultimately determine whether portions west of Eastern Long Island see anything more than than a couple inches of snow. The cutoff between heavier snow and a light coating looks to be quite sharp also.

screenshot-from-2017-01-06-10-11-27

Sunday – overnight lows this weekend will be chilly, only in the upper-teens. Sunday, the wind picks up as the pressure gradient between the Nor’easter and high pressure building to the west increases. High temperatures will again only range in the upper-20s.

Monday – sunny, but still cold with a high temperature right around freezing.

 

Drought Update

Recent storms have brought beneficial rain and snow to the state and has helped alleviate some of the worst drought, while also staving off the redevelopment of drought in some areas. The cold temperatures have also been helpful in reducing evaporation from the soil. There’s almost no extreme drought left in the state, though most of Downstate remains in an area of severe drought.

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