Category Archives: Climate

NYC Weather Update – Apr 26, 2016

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There is a potential for strong to severe thunderstorms today, especially for areas south and west of the city today. Stormy weather gives way to calmer, cooler conditions Wednesday before another round of rain moves in late Thursday. Cooler temperatures prevail in the short to medium term.

Rest of today – the Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of the region under a marginal to slight risk of severe weather today. These areas are largely confined to those south and west of the city. A frontal boundary is draped from west to east across the area, such that portions to the east will be in colder air north of the frontal boundary, while those areas to the west will be in a warmer area south of it. Any strong to severe thunderstorms will be confined to areas that see the warmest temperatures today, where the spread in high temperatures could be over 25ºF from eastern Long Island to Central New Jersey.

In the city, expect high temperatures in the upper-60s to low-70s with a potential for thunderstorms, some possibly with damaging winds and small hail. These storms will be coming in two rounds, one around 11AM this morning (radar returns are already showing this batch of weaker showers), and the second, stronger batch coming around 3PM. Screen Shot 2016-04-26 at 10.19.47 AM Screen Shot 2016-04-26 at 10.20.01 AM

Wednesday – temperatures cool off considerably in the wake of these storms. High temperatures will be around 60ºF tomorrow with sunny skies.

Thursday – another cool day with high temperatures in the upper-50s and increasing clouds along with an increasing chance of rain during the day into the overnight hours.

Friday – high temperatures in the upper-50s to around 60ºF with partly sunny skies.

Below Normal Temperature Trend to Continue – Rain Needed

An upcoming series of storm systems moving over the region will lead to colder air being pulled in behind them. This will result in below normal temperatures for this time of year throughout much of the next two weeks.

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Due to a long stretch of dry weather, many portions of the NYC region have fallen behind normal precipitation levels for this period of the year by considerable margins. Hopefully, the rounds of rain we are forecast to receive coming up will help to prevent drought conditions from redeveloping in the area before this growing season starts in earnest.

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NYC Weather Update – Apr 11, 2016

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After a cold start to the first full month of spring, we’re finally turning the corner and headed into a gradual warming trend to end the month. This week looks good, with mostly dry weather except for Tuesday, and temperatures at or slightly above normal in the upper-50s to around 60ºF.

Rest of today – skies have been clearing up the past few hours, though there are more clouds to our west. However, no rain is expected to fall until much later in the overnight hours and temperatures should be pleasant in the mid-50s.

Tuesday – rain in the morning, cloudy and warmer with high temperatures around 60ºF.
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Wednesday – mostly sunny day with high temperatures again in the upper-50s to around 60ºF under the influence of a high pressure center.

Thursday – basically a copy of Wednesday, but perhaps a couple degrees warmer.

Friday – the streak of good weather continues, another nice day pretty much like Friday.

Warming Trend

Above normal temperatures are expected for almost the entire country, including the Northeast, for pretty much the remainder of the month.

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NYC Weekend Weather – Apr 1, 2016

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It’s going to feel like a bad April Fool’s joke hit us this weekend when the weather turns to a locked in pattern of below average temperatures – cold enough at times to support snow, perhaps even enough to accumulate. Hard to believe that we almost hit 80ºF in February.

Rest of today – a potent storm system that pummeled large parts of the south with severe weather, including tornadoes, will be moving through the area this afternoon. We won’t see anything nearly as powerful as the storms that hit the south, but it does look like there will be two rounds of moderate rain with a few thunderstorms. The first batch looks to hit around noon and lunch hours, while the second arrives later this evening around 7PM. Gusty southwest winds up to 30mph ahead of the passage of the cold front responsible for these storms will bring temperatures well into the upper-60s and low-70s.Screen Shot 2016-04-01 at 9.49.35 AM Screen Shot 2016-04-01 at 9.49.53 AM

Saturday – much cooler with temperatures in the upper-50s to around 60ºF. A chance for scattered showers remains due to the approach of another cold front from the Great Lakes.

Sunday – we’ll begin to feel the chill in earnest on Sunday as temperatures drop into the mid-30s overnight from Saturday into Sunday. A polar vortex will be moving in over a large part of the northern United States. There could even be some snow showers in the city on Sunday morning before skies clear and winds pick up from the northwest into the 20-30mph range with clearing skies. High temperatures will only be in the mid-40s, nearly 10ºF below average.

Monday – a warm front preceding a low pressure system will move through Monday allowing for temperatures to rise into the low-50s, however, this will be accompanied by rain. Overnight into Tuesday, temperatures should cool enough for this rain to transition to all snow for a period.

A Cool April

The polar jet stream will be dipping well south of us during the medium term, allowing for a polar vortex to move over the region. This will lead to a cooler than average first half of the month, and possibly the entire month. Today might be the last day we see the 60s and 70s for quite some time, so go out and enjoy it while you can.

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NYC Weather Update – Mar 21, 2016

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February 2016 resolutely smashed previous records for the largest deviation above normal temperatures for any given month (which was previously set in January 2016). Thus far, March has yielded temperatures more typical of late-May, and also two instances of late season accumulating snows. This week, the weather warms up again, and there’s certainly no snow on deck.

Rest of today – clouds have largely cleared out with the passage of last night’s coastal storm that left behind some marginal accumulations across the region, the highest totals occurring quite a ways east of the city, but capped at only about 3″. There will be no trace of the snow by this afternoon as temperatures warm into the upper-40s.

Tuesday – very similar to today, with high temperatures in the upper-40s and mostly sunny skies.

Wednesday – winds turn to the southwest ahead of an advancing frontal boundary that will pass late Thursday/Friday, allowing temperatures to surge into the low-60s with increasing clouds.

Thursday – tricky temperature forecast due to the timing of approach of the aforementioned frontal boundary. If that boundary is a bit slower than current forecasts or lifts further north, we could see temperatures well into the 60s. Temperatures should be quite mild in the mid-upper 50s even outside of this scenario.

Friday – the next chance at rain and possibly a couple of thunderstorms occurs late Thursday into Friday morning with the anticipated passage of a cold front. Despite the passage of this front, temperatures will still be well above average in the upper-50s.

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NYC Weekend Weather – Mar 10, 2016

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Another day of near record or record breaking temperatures is on tap for the region as a highly anomalous stretch of warm weather continues. Yesterday, Central Park hit 77ºF, shattering the old record of 69ºF set in 2000 by nearly 10ºF. Looking ahead, temperatures will moderate somewhat over the weekend, but will remain 10ºF+ warmer than normal for this time of year in the upper-50s to low-60s. We spring forward an hour into Daylight Savings Time on Sunday.

Rest of today – temperatures at this hour were already well into the upper-60s and just over 70ºF across the region. Today would easily be warmer than yesterday if not for the fact that current satellite trends suggest that widespread cloud cover will be moving in over the next couple of hours. Areas that experience more breaks in cloud cover today could break some records. Rain will develop, first to the north, then push through the whole area overnight tonight.

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Friday – clouds should clear up steadily through the day Friday. A cold front will move through, and will cause high temperatures to dip by about 10ºF compared to today, yielding highs in the low-60s, but that will still be over 10ºF above normal for this time of year.

Saturday – high pressure from the north takes control and gives us a beautiful, sunny day with high temperatures near 60ºF.

Sunday – similar temperatures to Saturday, but with increasing clouds as the next storm approaches the area.

Monday – cooler with high temperatures in the low-50s and rain.

Warm Trend Continues to Late March

Looking ahead, temperatures are forecast to continue at above normal levels through the majority of March.

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NYC Weather Update – Mar 7, 2016

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Although spring is still technically two weeks away, it certainly will not feel that way this week with some very warm weather coming our way. The warm temperatures appear to persist well into the latter part of this week, and onwards into the weekend.

Rest of today – a sunny preview of things to come this week with temperatures in the mid-50s.

Tuesday – the warm up begins with high temperatures easily reaching 60ºF in the city despite clouds.

Wednesday – as high pressure moves off of the East Coast, clockwise return flow on its western edge brings with it a surge of warmer air, allowing temperatures to soar into the upper-60s (probably topping 70ºF in the city also), breaking some daily records especially in interior regions.

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Thursday – a weak disturbance moves through late in the day on Thursday, but temperatures will remain warm in the upper-60s prior to this disturbance’s passage.

Friday – following the passage of the disturbance above, we get somewhat of a cool down, with high temperatures dropping 10ºF into the upper-50s on Friday. This is still well above normal for this time of year though!

Spring Warms Up Early

Looking ahead, Climate Prediction Center models suggest a high likelihood of above average temperatures for the entire Eastern United States in the 1-2 week range.

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NYC Weekend Weather – Mar 3, 2016

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As we approach spring, the weather has a tendency to swing wildly between different extremes. We start this forecast period off with accumulating snow, while by this time next week, we are expecting temperatures in the 60s!

Rest of today – mostly sunny, but cool with below average high temperatures in the upper-30s.

Friday – overnight tonight into the first half of Friday, our area will get impacted by the northern fringe of what is expected to be a powerful coastal storm. Lucky for us, high pressure north of us is sufficiently strong so as to prevent this storm from hitting us dead one, which would certainly result in a more significant snowfall event. In this case, we are expecting to see snow in the range of 1-2″ across the city and Long Island with lesser amounts further north and west. Temperatures will remain colder than nom

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Saturday – high pressure takes control with skies clearing and temperatures in the low-40s. Another slight chance for snow Saturday night accompanies the passage of a clipper system.

Sunday – partly sunny with highs around average in the low-mid 40s.

Monday – temperatures start to warm up as the high pressure moves offshore to the east and warm, southwesterly return flow circles clockwise around its western periphery. High temperatures in the low-50s.

Warming Trend Ahead

With the aforementioned high pressure center offshore in the Atlantic early to mid-week next week, we’ll see increasingly warm temperatures, up into the 60s by Wednesday. This warm trend looks to continue over the course of the next week, with a brief cooldown late next week before what should be a warm weekend next week.

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NYC Weather Update – Feb 29, 2016

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This week opens up with some very mild and spring-like weather. March will arrive like a lamb for sure. However, following a storm system moving through Wednesday, temperatures will cool off to below normal levels, with a possibility for some snow Friday! This kind of highly variable weather is typical for spring, which officially starts in just under 3 weeks time.

Rest of today –  a line of showers associated with a cold front passed through this morning and has moved well off to the east of the city. Skies have cleared up, and temperatures are rising steadily into the upper-50s. Would not be surprised to see some areas top 60ºF this afternoon.

Tuesday – despite the passage of a cold front today, temperatures don’t cool off too much tomorrow. Mostly sunny skies should yield temperatures slightly above normal in the upper-40s.

Wednesday – the next storm system moves in overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. The low pressure center responsible for this storm is forecast to pass almost directly over the region early Wednesday morning. As it approaches, it will pull in warmer air from the south into its counterclockwise cyclonic flow, which will result in temperatures actually warming up overnight into the upper-40s. Temperatures will peak  Wednesday morning around 50ºF, accompanied by periods of rain. Rain should be dissipating by 2PM in the afternoon.

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Thursday – following the passage of the low pressure above, temperatures will cool off into the upper-30s fro Thursday under mostly sunny skies.

Drought Ends

The last couple months have delivered sufficient snow and rain to bust the moderate drought that had been persisting over the NYC metro area, in particular on Long Island. This is excellent news for farmers and gardeners throughout the region ahead of the upcoming growing season.

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NYC Weather Update – Feb 22, 2016

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This week features an active weather pattern with precipitation possible from Tuesday evening through parts of Thursday. Temperatures start off below normal before rising above normal for Wednesday and Thursday, then finally dropping below normal again to end the week. A cooler than normal trend will persist into the beginning of March.

Rest of today – mostly clear with high temperatures in the mid-upper 40s.

Tuesday – the weaker of two storm systems to affect the region this week will approach from the south. Chances for precipitation will increase through the afternoon and become likely overnight. Temperature profiles at the start of the event will support light rain/snow mix before transitioning to all rain for the city overnight. High temperatures should top off in the upper-30s.

Wednesday – rain likely throughout the day, increasing in coverage and intensity through the morning into the afternoon. High temperatures will be warm in the upper-40s.

Thursday – the heaviest rains with this storm system are forecast to occur during the overnight hours Wednesday going into Thursday. Showers are still possible Thursday morning with most precipitation ending during the afternoon. A warm front will pass Wednesday night, which will help support mild temperatures in mid-50s.

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Friday – a trailing cold front from the storm above passes through late Thursday, and in the wake of this cold front, skies will start clearing Friday with temperatures cooling off, and highs only around 40ºF.

Cooler to End February

A cooler than normal temperature trend is likely to occur to end the month and to start March.

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NYC Weekend Weather – Feb 18, 2016

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This weekend will be uneventful in terms of sensible weather, and will stand in stark contrast to last weekend in terms of temperatures. As you’ll recall, we had high temperatures last Sunday around 10ºF – this Sunday high temperatures may be 40ºF warmer than that, near 50ºF. Looking ahead, though, there is a chance for a mid-week storm next week, and it would appear that there’ll be another downward temperature trend to end the month, perhaps lasting into the beginning of March as well.

Rest of today – sunny skies belie cold temperatures with highs only hitting the mid-30s today.

Friday – about the same in terms of temperature, but with increasing clouds throughout the day as a warm front approaches from the west. There may be some scattered rain during the overnight hours going into Saturday, although the bulk of this storm system is expected to pass well to the north.

Saturday – much warmer with southwesterly flow behind the warm front referenced above. High temperatures expected to be around 50ºF with mostly sunny skies.

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Sunday – slightly cooler with high temperature in the upper-40s.

Monday – increasing clouds with high temperatures in the mid-upper 40s.

Cooler to End the Month

Looking ahead to next week, temperatures are expected to be just about normal to perhaps a little below, which would mean about 35-40ºF.

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