Category Archives: Drought

NYC Weather Update – Nov 29, 2016

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It’s the tale of two very different weather regimes this week. Starting the week, we have mild, rainy conditions accompanying a couple storm systems. This rain is still desperately needed as a drought continues to grip the area. Later in the week, things dry out, but temperatures also move in a downward trend back below normal.

Rest of today – mild with a high temperature near 60°F, rainy, with rain moderate to heavy at times. Rain tapering off by about 7PM this evening.

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Wednesdaay – a complex set of of frontal boundaries move through the area tomorrow in association with a low pressure developing over the Great Lakes. In terms of sensible weather, expect a brief pause from the rain early Wednesday, but another round of overrunning rain that could then lead to a line of stronger storms with gusty winds late in the day as the cold front pictured below pushes through. Mostly cloudy with high temperatures again around 60°F.

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Thursday – becoming sunny with high temperatures still holding up in the upper-50s.

Friday – cooler with high temperatures dropping to around normal in the low-50s with sun and clouds.

Drought Still Not Abating

Despite plenty of rain recently, large deficits built up from earlier in the year are still hard to beat, with many areas still in a moderate to severe drought in the NYC region.

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NYC Weather Update – Nov 14, 2016

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The beginning of the week will see much needed rain, and then transition to sunny and above average weather. Drought conditions have improved in New York State overall, though most of the improvement has been concentrated upstate.

Rest of today/overnight – rain begins to move in to the area overnight. Because of the very dry air that was in place to end the weekend, it will take some time before the moisture associated with a coastal low can saturate the air. It appears the most likely time for when heavier/steadier rains begin is around 4AM.

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Tuesday – rain, moderate to heavy at times in the morning. Northeast winds around the coastal low responsible for the rain will keep temperatures cooler than normal in the low-50s with cloudy skies. Rain chances diminish substantially in the afternoon.

Wednesday – a small chance for lingering drizzle on Wednesday as temperatures rebound back into the upper-50s. Clouds will be on the decrease.

Thursday – sunny, with a high near 60ºF. High pressure takes over to to end the week.

Drought Improves Upstate, Still Severe in and Around NYC.

Recent rains have improved the drought situation for many portions of upstate New York, and also some areas of the city and Long Island. However, as you can see from the image below, much of the area is still gripped by severe drought.

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NYC Weather Update – Oct 31, 2016

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There’s nothing scary with our weather this week in New York City. We’re looking at a cool start to the week, followed by a gradual warmup with a chance at rain towards the later part of this week. We received a couple rounds of drenching rains last week and yesterday, which will help the drought conditions somewhat, but it’s still not nearly enough to make up the deficit we’ve had this year.

Rest of today – clear, with a high in the low-50s after the passage of the cold front that brought us heavy rain yesterday. Trick or treating weather conditions should be just fine, though a bit on the cool side with lows dropping into upper-30s and around 40ºF tonight.

Tuesday – milder, sunny, with a high of around 60ºF in the city.

Wednesday – a warm front will push through early Wednesday. This will open the door to warmer air flowing around a high pressure center over the Southeast and an advancing cold front from the west. Temperatures will rise into the mid-60s with increasing clouds.

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Thursday – even warmer still before this cold front above actually hits us. High temperatures expected to be in the upper-60s to near 70ºF. Some chances for showers later in the day into the overnight hours.

Drought Likely to Persist

Despite having received several inches of rain over the last couple of weeks, the seasonal outlook for our area continues to point to persistent moderate to severe drought. We hope to see some good snowfall like last winter that could bust the drought later on.

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NYC Weather Update + Winter Outlook – Oct 24, 2016

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Autumn weather is here in earnest. In a remarkable change from last week, we’ll see high temperatures below normal for most days. Temperatures will range 30ºF cooler than this time last week. As we look ahead towards the winter, there are mixed signals about whether this will be a cooler, warmer, or average winter.

Rest of today – sunny, breezy, with a high near 60ºF. Northwest winds around 15mph, gusting to 30mph.

Tuesday – mostly sunny, breezy again especially later with northwest winds again between 15-20mph. Cooler, with high temperatures in the mid-50s. With the wind, it will feel quite cool for this time of year.

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Wednesday – winds should ease up a bit, but will be cool again with high temperatures potentially only in the low-50s.

Thursday – temperatures rise back into the mid-50s with the approach of a storm system from the west that should bring a chance for rain, increasing through the day.

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Winter Outlook

Meteorologists are less confident that we’ll have a La Niña this coming winter, which makes the winter climate outlook more uncertain. There are indications that temperatures may be a bit milder overall. However, that doesn’t preclude the possibility of some serious cold spells also.

There are conflicting forecasts that call for a colder than normal winter also, which you can read about on Weather Underground. Unfortunately, there is no indication we’ll get above average precipitation, which would be welcomed considering most of the Northeast is still dealing with an increasingly serious drought.

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NYC Weather Update – Oct 11, 2016

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We did end up getting rainier, windier weather last weekend than expected because of the lingering influence of Post-Tropical Storm Matthew as it got absorbed by a cold front. This cold front is what’s brought us the first real blast of autumn chill. This trend will reverse itself the next couple days. Cooler air returns for the weekend.

Rest of today – seasonable with highs in the mid-60s and mostly sunny skies.

Wednesday – warmer, with a cold front approaching from the west, warmer air will flow in from the south. This will allow temperatures to rise into the upper-60s under increasingly cloudy skies.

Thursday – a bit milder than Wednesday, with a possibility of temperatures reaching into the low-mid 70s. There is a slight chance for rain with the passage of the cold front, but this frontal passage looks in general to be a dry one.

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Friday – colder air returns after the passage of the frontal boundary late Thursday. Temperatures return to seasonable levels in the low-60s under mostly sunny skies with overnight lows dipping to around 50ºF in the city and much cooler in the surrounding suburbs.

Saturday – another picture perfect autumn day with high temperatures in the low-60s and lots of sun.

Severe Drought Persists

We continue to suffer from a persistent and severe drought. We are more than 8″ below where we should be this time of year in terms of overall precipitation and the long term outlook does not call for any relief. season_drought 20161004_ny_trd

 

NYC Weather Update – Sep 26, 2016

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Fall has arrived. Temperatures have cooled noticeably, even though technically, they are still in the above normal range. There will be a few chances for much needed rain during the week, overnight into Tuesday, then during an extended period in the second half of the week.

Rest of today – increasing clouds with high temperatures hovering in the low-70s.

Tuesday – overnight into Tuesday, we’re expecting a fairly robust cold front to push through with enough moisture to give some areas around 1″ of rain. This is some much needed precipitation as we’re far behind where we should be for this time of year and a moderate to severe drought continues to grip much of the area. Rain should taper off for the most part by the AM rush Tuesday, with some lingering showers possible. Ahead of the cold front actually passing through, wind flow turns to the south, allowing temperatures to rise into the upper-70s.

Wednesday – the cold front passing through Tuesday will be the spawn of a low pressure center that will stay relatively stationary over the upper Great Lakes, but by later Wednesday, this low pressure will begin to transfer energy to a new low that will form closer to the coast off of Virginia. This low will eventually lead to steady rain chances for the remainder of the week, starting with a small chance on Wednesday. High temperatures are expected to be in the mid-70s.

Thursday – this begins a stretch of unsettled weather as the low mentioned above meanders, and retrogrades (moves west) and inland from the coast. This low will become cutoff from any meaningful steering currents, which means it’ll stick around for a few days. High temperatures will be cooler Thursday around 70ºF with mostly cloudy skies and periods of rain.

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Drought Not Likely to Dissipate

Below normal precipitation continues to be expected for the region, which is still gripped by moderate to severe drought, in particular on eastern Long Island.

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NYC Weekend Weather – Sep 8, 2016

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This past week, weather headlines were dominated by the uncertain course of how Post-tropical Cyclone Hermine would unfold. Now that Hermine has dissipated and is well behind us, we look ahead to the end of the week which will start off warm, but cool off somewhat.

Rest of today – it’s sunny now, but clouds are moving in from the north and west, and will likely result in partly sunny skies later on. High temperatures will range into the upper-80s and around 90ºF in some parts.

Friday – with an area of high pressure to our southwest, warm, humid air from south will flow into the region allowing temperatures to rise into the low-90s. There is a chance for isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon.

Saturday – a frontal boundary will be lingering in our vicinity during the day. This should yield a mostly cloudy day with a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout. High temperatures will be a bit cooler, in the mid-upper 80s.

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Sunday – the frontal boundary pushes through as a cold front and brings in some relief from heat and humidity. Skies will clear and allow temperatures to rise to the mid-80s.

Drought Persists, Some Relief Ahead?

Parts of our state are still dealing with an extreme drought, though in our region, we’re “lucky” enough to only have a moderate to severe drought in parts of Long Island. The monthly outlook does call for some drought relief for Long Island, though.

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NYC Weekend Weather – Aug 26, 2016

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We ended this past week of refreshing, more seasonably warm weather with a hot and humid day today. This weekend, temperatures will cool off again into about normal ranges. No significant precipitation chances are forecast for the next few days. I will be on vacation next week, so no updates for a little while unless urgent comes up.

Rest of today – comfortable with highs dropping through the 80s into the mid-70s overnight.

Saturday – high pressure takes over and delivers a sunny day with temperatures in the upper-80s.

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Sunday – a tad cooler with high temperatures in the mid-80s and sunny.

Monday – the only day with a chance for rain, otherwise mostly sunny with a high in the mid-upper 80s.

Tuesday – mostly sunny with a high in the mid-upper 80s.

Drought Worsens Upstate, Some Improvement Elsewhere

Despite getting some decent rains over the last few weeks, New York State remains gripped by drought, with a severe drought no impacting upstate regions along the Erie Canal corridor.

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NYC Weather Update – Aug 15, 2016

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The scorching heat from the weekend isn’t completely gone to start the week. In general, the weather will be cooler than last week, though we’re still expecting above average temperatures for this period. Luckily, we’ve gotten some rain from the extended period of unsettled weather last week and over the weekend, which is helping to ameliorate drought conditions over the region.

Rest of today – high temperatures around 90ºF with a heat advisory in effect. It would appear that a round of rain and/or thunderstorms is headed towards the area around 8PM tonight.

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Tuesday – a nearly stationary front will allow for some showers and thunderstorms to develop in the region, particularly in the afternoon hours. Only a tad cooler with high temperatures in the upper-80s under mostly cloudy skies.

Wednesday – the stationary front mentioned above will lift north eventually as a warm front. This will set the stage for some possibly strong thunderstorms on Wednesday as a trailing cold front makes its push into the area. High temperatures will again be in the upper-80s with partly sunny skies.

Thursday – with a cold front finally moving through, we should see an end to the rain chance, and temperatures in the upper-80s under mostly sunny skies, but with a drier, less humid feel.

Drought Conditions Improving?

The near-term outlook for temperature and precipitation from the Climate Prediction Center both point to above average trends.

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Despite warm temperatures, the last week of multiple rounds of rain has helped improve drought conditions in some portions of the region. You’ll see in the second graphic below, due to the rains both up to this point and that are forecast, drought removal might happen for much of the Southeaster New York area in the next month. This includes NYC but excludes Long Island, where a severe drought continues.

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NYC Weekend Weather – Aug 5, 2016

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We’ve been able to enjoy a very comfortable week of summer weather. High temperatures have been largely held in check in the low-mid 80s this week. This weekend, there will be a chance for some rain Saturday, but Sunday will be another nice day with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the mid-80s.

Rest of today – mostly sunny, high around 85ºF.

Saturday – watching for the risk of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms tomorrow. The degree of severity will hinge upon how much cloud cover there is during the first half of the day, and whether any storms pop up early. If there are more clouds early, and some storms show up early, the available energy for storms in the afternoon associated with a cold front will be limited. Ahead of this cold front, warm, humid air will flow in, and temperatures should peak near 90ºF.

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Sunday – skies will clear quickly following the passage of the aforementioned cold front. High pressure begins to take over and will give us a nice, sunny day, with highs in the mid-80s.

Monday – almost a clone of Sunday with mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid-80s.

Tuesday – with high pressure still almost directly overhead, we will get another nice day with highs in the mid-80s.

Slight Improvement in Drought Conditions

With recent rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms that have impacted the area, we’ve seen a slight improvement in drought conditions, but the situation is still far from desirable.

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