After a span of several weeks with minimal rainfall, we’re running into a week that will be defined by two low pressure systems and unsettled, rainy weather. Temperature will finally cool off from the summer-like warmth we’ve recently enjoyed to more seasonable, fall temperatures.
Rest of today – cloudy, periods of rain, some heavy at times. High temperatures in the mid-upper 70s. Breezy with winds 15-20 mph. Remnants of Nate are passing through the area today, bringing tropical moisture and rain along with a deepening pressure gradient and the windy conditions.
Tuesday – best day of the first half of this week, mostly sunny with temperatures in the low-80s in the wake of the storm system passing today.
Wednesday – a backdoor cold front pushes through overnight into Wednesday. Winds will shift to the easterly direction and onshore with high pressure to the north. The result will be much cooler temperatures in the upper-60s or just about 70°F, which is about normal for this time of year. There will also be a chance for rain and increasingly cloudy skies.
Thursday – similar feel to Wednesday with clouds, chances for rain, easterly winds, but cooler with temperatures in the mid-60s.
The first half of this long weekend will continue the warm summer feel we’ve had since mid-week. Some much needed rain arrives Sunday going into next week in conjunction with the anticipated remnants of Tropical Storm Nate. This does literally mean that it will rain on the Columbus Day parade.
Rest of today – mostly sunny. Warm with highs around 80°F.
Saturday – partly sunny, not a bad day though with high temperatures in the low-80s. The stationary front depicted above that’s sitting close to the city will push north of us as a warm front. This will open the door to an increasingly tropical feel with higher dew points and more moisture in the air.
Sunday – mostly cloudy. Rain chances increasing in the afternoon with thunderstorms possible. Rain that develops could be heavy with tropical moisture flowing into the area. Still warm, with temperatures in the low-80s. An advancing cold front will push up precipitation partially fueled by Tropical Storm Nate (which is anticipated to make landfall on the New Orleans/Mississippi coastal area this weekend. This precipitation will be moving in on our area well in advance of the actual core of the remnants of Nate.
Monday (Columbus Day) – rain and thunderstorms as the bulk of the remnants of Nate move into the area. Rain heavy at times. Cooler with highs dipping into the mid-70s. With Nate approaching to the southwest of us, we should see more steady rain and clouds, keeping temperatures suppressed.
Tropical Storm Nate
Tropical Storm Nate is expected to strengthen into a minimal hurricane after it crosses near or over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula this weekend and into the Gulf of Mexico. From that point, it’s expected to accelerate towards the Gulf Coast and make landfall in the vicinity of New Orleans, the Mississippi Delta and coastal Mississippi. Even though this storm will pale in comparison to Irma and Maria, it has already claimed 20 lives in Central America due to heavy rains and flooding.
October gets started with a decidedly fall feel, but temperatures do warm up later in the week before returning back to normal over the weekend. High pressure is in control for basically the entire forecast period, resulting in sunny conditions each day.
Rest of today – sunny with high temperatures around normal about 70ºF.
Tuesday – a touch warmer, high temperatures in the low-mid 70s and sunny.
Wednesday – warming trend continues with high temperatures rising into the upper-70s as high pressure moves to the southeast. Sunny skies.
Thursday – summer returns briefly with high temperatures well into the 80s and sunny conditions again.
This weekend kicks off a stretch of cooler, drier, true-to-form autumn weather after last week’s decidedly summer-like days. A low pressure center over the Great Lakes will slide southeast towards the region to start the weekend. This could scattered showers and thunderstorms. Aside from that, conditions will be dry and fair for the remainder of the forecast period.
Rest of today – high temperatures right about 70°F with sunny skies, much drier feel to the day.
Saturday – scattered showers and thunderstorms possible, especially early. High temperatures in the upper-60s, cooler in spots that see rain.
Sunday – sunny, high temperatures again around 70°F. High pressure from Canada behind the low pressure above will keep things dry and cool for much of the next week.
Monday – slightly warmer, high temperatures in the low-70s, again mostly sunny.
Hurricane Maria will not be coming our way this week. The cold front that will be responsible for pushing Maria out to sea arrives late in the week and induces a return to fall weather. Until then, it will continue to look and feel like summer.
Rest of today – warm, sunny, high temperatures well into the mid and upper-80s
Tuesday – some patchy fog over night. Any fog should burn off early and high temperatures should reach in the low-80s with mostly sunny skies.
Wednesday – could see some more clouds, and possibly some rain along a frontal boundary passing through. High temperatures in the low-80s.
Thursday – clouds and sun with temperaturea around 80°F.
We have a superb weekend of weather coming up. Temperatures will be anomalously warm for this time of the year, with highs ranging in the mid-upper 80s. It will feel more like late July than late September. Excellent beach weather, if not for the continuing coastal impacts of Jose. The warm spell continues into next week. Our eyes turn towards Hurricane Maria, which after devastating Puerto Rico and Dominica, is now heading up the East Coast. Maria is not expected to make landfall, but it could still bring coastal impacts like Jose.
Rest of today – partly sunny with high temperatures around 80°F.
Saturday – mostly sunny, very warm, temperatures 10-15°F above average for this time of the year.
Sunday – high pressure remains in place with lots of sun and high temperatures again in the upper-80s.
Monday – sunny, temperatures in the upper-80s yet again.
Hurricane Maria
You can now see both Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose and Hurricane Maria in the same satellite image of the continental US. Because Jose has eroded the high pressure over the northwestern Atlantic, Maria will have a path to move northwards up along the East Coast. It does look like Maria will get picked up by a frontal boundary late in the week that pushes it out to sea though.
Hurricane Jose will be the primary weather maker for us in the NYC region during the beginning of the week. Tropical storm watches are up for almost the entire the Northeast coast, except for NYC itself. The storm is expected to continue weakening, and while landfall on the US mainland is not expected, there will still be plenty of impacts from the storm.
Monday – isolated chance of showers, primarily this morning. Highs in the mid-70s with cloudy skies.
Tuesday – showers likely from the bands of what will probably a low-end Hurricane Jose or high-end tropical storm. Due to the track of Jose, it will look and feel much like a Nor’easter, with steady winds from the northeast between 15-20 mph. High temperatures in the low-70s. These winds will peak overnight into Wednesday around 25 mph.
Wednesday – rain is still possible from the influence of Tropical Storm Jose. Temperatures in the mid-upper 70s. Winds from the north between 20-25 mph.
Thursday – much more pleasant as Jose moves away from us and continues to weaken. Mostly sunny with high temperatures in the upper-70s.
Hurricane Jose
Hurricane Jose has been exhibiting signs of weakening over the past few days. In this latest satellite image, you can see the center of circulation is exposed and the primary convective areas are well to the north. This is due to strong mid-level wind shear from the south. The storm is also about to leave the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. Both these factors should continue to lead to steady weakening.
As the storm weakens, it has expanded in size, so despite its center not being forecast to make landfall, it is still expected to bring significant coastal impacts (beach erosion, coastal flooding, high surf) along with heavy rain.
As a side note – Hurricane Maria also bears watching with the potential to affect the East Coast next week.
The main weather headline going into the weekend is the eventual track of Tropical Storm Jose. Depending on its proximity to land, we could see some nasty effects from the storm next Tuesday or Wednesday. The weekend itself should be rather uneventful, the veritable calm before the storm.
Rest of today – warm and mostly sunny. Small chance for an isolated PM pop-up thunderstorm especially inland and west.
Saturday – more clouds but still a nice day with highs around 80°F.
Sunday – probably the best day of the weekend with mostly sunny skies and a high around 80°F again.
Monday – pleasant enough to start the week. Increasing clouds, which will end the streak of above normal weather. With Jose approaching from the south we may also see increasing onshore winds cooling things off.
Jose an Increasing Threat to the East Coast
While Texas, Florida, and parts of the Caribbean are still reeling from the impacts of major hurricanes Harvey and Irma, Jose could pose a problem for us along the East Coast. Jose has been meandering aimlessly in the western Atlantic over the last few days and has done an anti-cyclonic loop. It’s now beginning to move west-northwest and there are a few forecast models that show it making landfall along the East Coast or coming very close to it.
It shouldn’t be too surprising that the cone of uncertainty in the official National Hurricane Center’s forecast is so large at day 5 given the substantial spread that exists amongst individual members of different modeling systems. Note that there is still plenty of time for this storm to curve out to sea with primary impacts being limited to beach erosion and coastal flooding. However, if the storm comes closer to shore or makes landfall, then we’re talking about a much more substantial problem.
Critical factors for steering this storm will include the strength of a blocking ridge (area of high pressure) which you can see in the upper right of the following image, and whether Jose gets picked up by a frontal boundary and pushed east. A stronger high pressure would block Jose’s eastward progress, and the timing of the frontal boundary passing over the East Coast will be crucial.
Jose is expected to intensify somewhat back to a minimal Category 1 storm over this time. On its approach to this area, it’s possible that it might begin the process of extratropical transition, where its center becomes less defined and loses a warm core. However, this process could also infuse some energy via baroclinic forcing that actually strengthens the storm, much as was the case with Superstorm Sandy. The concern for this storm is the long period it spends over open water where it has the potential to churn up storm surge. Even if there’s no landfall, it doesn’t mean it can’t affect coastal areas with surge or flooding.
This model run of the GFS shows Jose stalling out very close to Long Island, then brushing Cape Cod, much like a Nor’easter.
And don’t look now but we could be seeing the formation of tropical storms Lee and Maria in the Atlantic as well. The storm further to the west could pose a threat to the southern Lower Antilles next week.
We’ve got a wonderful stretch of below average but sunny, fall-like weather ahead of us over the weekend. The main weather story lies far to our south as Florida braces for Hurricane Irma over this same time period. Irma has weakened a bit but is still a large and dangerous Category 4 storm capable of wreaking havoc over the entire state of Florida.
Rest of today – our weather will be dictated by an area of high pressure anchored over the Great Lakes. This will give us mostly sunny skies with a cool high in the mid-70s.
High pressure firmly in control of the weather in our part of the world. You can see Hurricane Irma making its finally approach on Florida in the lower right.
Saturday – sunny with temperatures in the low-70s as the high pressure over the Great Lakes moves east a bit.
Sunday – more of the same as Saturday with sunny skies and high temperatures in the low-70s.
Monday – slightly warmer with high temperatures creeping back into the mid-70s with some more clouds.
Hurricane Irma a Major Threat to South Florida
Current Situation
Hurricane Irma has been weakening in the last 12 hours. It’s evident the storm is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, where the inner eye of the storm collapses and is replaced by a larger, outer eye. During these internal cycles, max wind speeds often decrease and fluctuate before the storm consolidates a new eye. It has been downgraded to a Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph.
Headlines
Landfall somewhere in South Florida over the weekend is a near certainty. Outer bands from Irma are expected to reach South Florida overnight tonight. Life-threatening storm surge inundation and damage from winds of major hurricane force (115 mph) are a near-certainty for parts of South Florida.
Since midday yesterday, forecast models have trended slight back towards a westerly solution for the forecast track of the storm. This almost eliminates the risks to Georgia and South Carolina coastal areas from a direct hit from a major hurricane. However, the risk to these areas from storm surge and strong tropical storm force/marginal hurricane force winds still exists.
There is still a chance Irma could make landfall on Cuba. This would weaken the storm ahead of subsequent landfall on Florida.
Forecast Track
As mentioned above, the best performing forecast models have shifted back to a more westerly track for Hurricane Irma.
Several different forecast models take on Irma’s track.Official National Hurricane Center forecast as of 8AM today.
Forecast Intensity
While Irma has weakened to a Category 4 storm due to an ongoing eyewall replacement cycle, it remains an extremely dangerous storm with an expanding wind field due to this cycle. Hurricane force winds extend 70 miles on each side of the eye and tropical storm force winds well beyond that. It remains possible that Irma can re-strengthen if it completes the eyewall replacement cycle before it interacts with land. Mid-level wind shear remains negligible and Irma will soon be passing over very warm seas with increasing depth. Both of these factors would suggest it maintaining Category 4 strength or possibly re-intensifying to Category 5.
Uncertainties
Any landfall on Cuba or interaction of the core of the storm with the high mountains of that island would disrupt the storm and cause weakening. This would be good news for Florida, at the expense of Cuba of course.
Should the core of the storm avoid Cuba and close off a new eye before too much time elapses, it would have the possibility of re-strengthening before landfall. A strong Category 4 or even a Category 5 storm making landfall on Florida is not out of the question.
The unofficial end of summer does indeed bring us a last gasp of summery weather. A cold front passing through mid-week brings rain and signals a return to more fall-like conditions. Later in the week, we will see high temperatures 5°F below normal. Turning towards the tropics, the risk Irma poses to our region is diminishing, but it now appears Irma will be a threat to Florida.
Rest of today – clear, with ideal conditions for outdoor activities of all kinds. High temperatures in the low-80s.
Tuesday – highs in the low-mid 80s as warm air surges ahead of an advancing cold front. Mostly sunny with increasing clouds late in the day. Some possibility for a spot shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon.
Wednesday – thunderstorms are possible overnight Tuesday as the leading edge of the cold front advances through the area. More rain is expected to ride along the frontal boundary after it passes through, bringing periods of showers throughout the day. High temperatures will be much cooler in the mid-70s with the clouds and rain.
Thursday – mostly cloudy to start with a chance for lingering rain. High temperatures will be cool again in the low-70s.
Friday – mostly sunny skies, much improved conditions as high pressure takes hold. Cool, with high temperatures in the low-70s.
Hurricane Irma an Increasing Threat to Florida
Over the weekend, Irma has been fluctuating in strengthen as it has negotiated marginal conditions for strengthening (mostly the influence of some dry air at upper levels). The National Hurricane Center still forecasts Irma to attain Category 4 strength at some point later this week (130 mph sustained winds or higher) as it encounters more favorable conditions for strengthening, and maintain at least Category 3 strengthen (sustained winds > 115 mph) throughout the forecast period.
The track forecast for Irma has continuously shifted west and south over the weekend due to the influence of an area of high pressure over the Atlantic now, and a faster forecast for the passage of the cold front mentioned above. This frontal boundary lifting out of the East Coast at a faster rate than in prior forecasts would mean that it does not influence Irma to make a turn to the north-northwest and threaten the East Coast. This has two consequences: 1) The chance for Irma to make landfall up the East Coast is diminishing, 2) On the other hand, the risk to Florida is increasing.
This run of the GFS forecast model suggests Irma making landfall on South Florida as a powerful Category 3 hurricane in one week’s time.A “spaghetti” plot of multiple model runs of GEFS, one of the forecast models that forecasters are using to analyze Irma.
It is important to note that with a week to go before Irma nears the US mainland, there could still be room for changes to the track and intensity forecasts. The National Hurricane Center specifically cautions against drawing premature conclusions about the storm’s impact on the rest of the US, while singling out Florida as an area of concern. More updates to come as we continue to watch the development of what could be a very dangerous storm.
