Category Archives: NYC

NYC Labor Day Weekend Weather, Eyes on Irma – Sep 1, 2017

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It will definitely feel like the end of summer this weekend as temperatures will be much below average for this time of the year. The remnants of Harvey are also likely to put a damper on weekend activities Saturday night through a decent chunk of Sunday. Labor Day Monday itself looks like a gem. In the long term, I’m keeping tabs up Hurricane Irma, which worries me with its potential to affect the East Coast.

Rest of today – cool, with a Canadian high pressure center to our north-northwest, we’ll feel a refreshing north wind that will diminish through the day. High temperatures are only forecast to hit 70ºF or so even with sunny skies, 10ºF+ below normal for this time of year.

Saturday – temperatures remain cool in the uppper-60s with an easterly onshore flow ahead of an approaching warm front associated with the remnants of Harvey. Overrunning clouds will move in before rain chances build up overnight.

Sunday – rain lingers into the day on Sunday before ending by the afternoon. Mostly cloudy with temperatures in the mid-70s as we get some warmer return flow behind the storm with high pressure setting up to our southwest.

Monday – the warming pattering continues with highs returning to around normal in the low-80s with sunny skies. This is the best day for your holiday weekend grilling, and should be excellent viewing conditions for the annual West Indian Day Parade and carnival.

 

Hurricane Irma – possible threat to the East Coast?

We’ve entered the peak of the hurricane season and right on the toes of Harvey we have Hurricane Irma which put on an impressive display of strengthening the last couple days wen it went from a tropical storm to Category 3 major hurricane. It’s weakened a slight bit but conditions are still favorable for it re-strengthen into a powerful Category 3 of 4 storm before making an approach on the Lesser Antilles.

What is concerning to me is the storm is forecast to take a jog to the southwest over the weekend. The further south and west this storm gets before it starts the process of curving back out to sea at a higher latitude, the greater the chance that it could impact the East Coast of the US. There is still a lot of time so things could definitely change, but it is worth noting that current forecasts favor a more southerly track, enhancing the risk to us. I’ve seen GFS model runs show the storm make direct landfall on the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. As of this morning, the GFS backed off of this type of scenario. It does bear watching though.

NYC Weather Update – Aug 28, 2017

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Nice weather from the weekend continues today. Chance for rain on Tuesday. Temperatures remain below normal through the week except Thursday. Labor Day weekend looks to start off like autumn.

Rest of today – clouds this morning expected to dissipate somewhat. Below normal temperatures with highs in the upper-70s.

Tuesday – a disturbance off the coast of northeast Florida has the potential to develop into Tropical Storm Irma. Regardless of whether the storm successfully undergoes tropical cyclogenesis, it is still anticipated to bring us some tangible weather impacts. This would be in the form of some rain especially later in the day as it makes a transition to an extra-tropical storm.

Easterly onshore winds from this storm to our south will suppress high temperatures in the low-70s and give us a mostly cloudy day.

Wednesday – unlike Tropical Storm Harvey, the storm above will accelerate quickly out to the Atlantic, so Wednesday should turn out to be a pretty decent day with mostly sunny skies and temperatures rebounding back to the upper-70s.

Thursday – a cold front will pass through the area during the day and could trigger a few scattered thunderstorms. Warmer air ahead of the cold front should give us about average high temperatures in the low-80s.

 

Peak Hurricane Season

We’re on the cusp of the traditional peak of the Atlantic Hurricane season, which typically begins around late August and lasts through till late September. This period typically sees the highest oceanic surface temperatures (due to the specific heat of water being relatively high, there’s a lag in time between peak solar heating of summer and actual peak ocean temperatures), which in ups the potential for tropical cyclone development.

Not surprisingly, we’ve got Harvey still devastating the Texas coast, about to re-emerge over open water before making a second landfall later this week. We’ve also got a possible tropical cyclone off of the Southeast coast and another tropical wave moving offshore of Africa that could develop into a tropical storm as it moves west. A lot of activity to monitor, hoping that none of it comes our way!

NYC Weather Update – Aug 7, 2017

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A pleasant Sunday gives way to a wet and cool start to the week. High pressure builds in as Monday’s storm system moves out of the area. The rest of the week, we’ll see below average temperatures, but mostly sunny conditions along with a more comfortable, drier airmass. This will be my last update for a couple of weeks as I’ll be traveling to Europe – I’ll miss out on the solar eclipse happening on August 21st, which I’ll give some details on in this post.

Rest of today – a low pressure center tracking near or over Long Island during the day today will bring multiple rounds of rain, which at times could be heavy. Conditions will deteriorate during the morning, and rains should pick up in the afternoon. A brief pause may occur before another round of heavy rain during the evening and overnight hours. A flash flood watch is in effect due to the possibility of upwards of 2″ of rain falling perhaps in short intervals. Temperatures will be cool with southeast winds off the ocean and clouds keeping things only in the low-mid 70s.

Tuesday – as this storm system pulls away, winds shift to the northwest and high pressure begins to build in. Tuesday should see partly sunny skies clearing up and high temperatures around 80°F.

Wednesday – nice crisp day on tap with high temperatures around 80°F again and lots of sun as high pressure remains in control.

Thursday – a notch warmer with high temperatures in the low-80s and mostly sunny skies.

 

Total Solar Eclipse of August 21st, 2017

This much anticipated astronomical event is approaching in 2 weeks time. The last total solar eclipse that would have been highly visible from a large portion of the continental United States dates back to March 7, 1970. This greatest magnitude of this eclipse traveled nearly directly over all the major cities of the Eastern Seaboard.

Path of the total solar eclipse of March 7, 1970

Unfortunately, this time around, we won’t be quite as lucky in New York City, but we’re still expecting around a .75 magnitude total solar eclipse peaking around 2:45PM on August 21st.  Regardless, it will be an impressive sight to behold as 3/4 of the sun will be blocked out by the moon transiting directly in front of it from our viewpoint. Even with cloudy skies, you should still notice an appreciable change in lighting during this eclipse event. Hope it stays sunny though!

NYC Weekend Weather – Aug 4, 2017

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A hot week transitions into a weekend that will see the end of the heat and humidity for at least half of next week and maybe longer. Rain and thunderstorms dot the forecast except appropriately Sunday.

Rest of today – partly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-80s. The rain and thunderstorms this morning give way to a dry day otherwise.

Saturday – a warm front moves through overnight into the morning with a cold front following right on its heels. This will bring a period thunderstorms producing heavy rain at times. Marginally favorable atmospheric conditions could spawn a few strong storms. Clouds clear up in the afternoon and highs are expected to reach normal levels in the mid-80s.

Sunday – cooler, drier air moves in behind the cold front Saturday. High pressure builds to the south and west and moves south sending cooler Canadian air around its periphery towards us. High temperatures will be comfortable around 80°F with lots of sun.

Monday – a weak disturbance brings rain and cooler temperatures, well below average only in the mid-upper 70s.

Trouble in the Tropics?

A vigorous tropical wave has spun up off the west African coast and Cabo Verde. Storms originating from this region have historically been some of the most powerful and damaging, but that’s if they can sustain the transit across the Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center has this wave at a 50% of forming into a tropical depression or storm in 2 days, and 80% chance in 5 days. It’s worrying that it’s starting to get picked up on long-term GFS model runs taking a swipe at the US East Coast as a strong tropical cyclone, however, this far out, it’s difficult to say which one of many scenarios could play out. It does bear monitoring though.

GFS for Wednesday 8/16, with the tropical system in the picture right off the East Coast of the US.

NYC Weather Update – Aug 1, 2017

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We enter the month of August with much more appropriate, summer weather and temperatures to match. High pressure over the eastern half of the country dictates the weather this week, with plenty of sun and temperatures finally in the normal to above normal range in the mid-upper 80s. Humidity increases and results in daily afternoon chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Rest of today – sunny with high temperatures in the mid-80s.

Tuesday – warmer, sunny with high temperatures in the upper-80s to near 90°F.

Wednesday – similar picture to Tuesday with highs in the upper-80s to around 90 °F, chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm.

Thursday – cooler with temperatures back in the mid-80s range and another chance for thunderstorms in the afternoon.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jul 28, 2017

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After a couple days of average temperatures, this weekend sees a return to cool temperatures with a wet start to it all. Conditions improve Sunday, and high pressure builds but temperatures remain below normal until later next week.

Rest of today – increasing clouds as a coastal low begins to form off the Mid-Atlantic. Warm with high temperatures right around normal in the low-mid 80s. Rain should hold off until the overnight hours.

High resolution rapid refresh model runs don’t show significant rainfall until around 2AM EDT Saturday

Saturday – an unpleasant, raw, windy, rainy day more reminiscent of autumn or spring than late July. As the coastal low moves closer to us along a stalled frontal boundary, it will bring chances for moderate to heavy rain along with a stiff northeast wind around 25 mph. As a result, temperatures will be surpressed in the mid-70s. Rain chances taper off during the day as the low moves east.

Sunday – much nicer with plenty of sun and temperatures rebounding to around 80°F. Still will have a cooling influence of the weakening northeast winds.

Monday – high pressure builds and yields another decent day with high temperatures around 80°F, possibly higher with more sun.

NYC Weather Update – Jul 24, 2017

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This past weekend, we saw a heatwave broken by several rounds of moderate to heavy rain associated with a couple frontal systems. In their wake, we start this week with temperatures below seasonal averages. This cooler airmass will dry out midweek and give us very comfortable average temperatures in the low-80s.

Rest of today – one more round of moderate to heavy rain pushing through now, then expect a break from the rain during the remainder of the day before another chance for showers later this evening and into the overnight hours, around 8-10PM. Cool, with am easterly onshore flow. High temperatures in the upper-70s.

Tuesday – high pressure begins to build but may not be sufficiently strong to completely remove the chance for showers especially early. Temperatures remain cool in the mid-70s again with a northeasterly onshore influence and cloudy skies.

Wednesday – warmer and sunny finally with high pressure in control, highs will rise into the low-80s.

Thursday – warmer still and into average high temperatures with highs in the mid-80s, but the tradeoff is increasing clouds.

NYC Weather Update – Jul 17, 2017

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We enter a week of weather that will very much feel like summer, with temperatures warming up during the midweek period. Each day, there could be a chance for showers or thunderstorms, though these will be more of the scattered variety. Temperatures return to more seasonable levels by the weekend.

Rest of today – partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms popping up this afternoon in some spots. A few storms could become strong or even severe. Temperatures in the mid-80s.

Tuesday – another chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon with a weak front in the area, but partly cloudy otherwise and temperatures again in the mid-80s.

Wednesday – warming up with temperatures edging closer to 90°F. Partly cloudy skies, with a chance for showers and thunderstorms again especially during the late afternoon and evening hours.

Thursday – hottest day of the week with temperatures in the low-90s. Partly sunny, and there is a chance for showers and thunderstorms as a cold front passes through the area, but the timing of this frontal passage is as yet not completely certain. Current thinking is that the front passes through overnight into Friday.

Friday – still quite warm in spite of the cold front passing through, high temperatures around 90°F again and mostly sunny.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jul 14, 2017

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What a difference a day makes – we went from a high in the low-mid 90s yesterday to a high today 20ºF cooler. Anticipate multiple rounds of rain throughout Friday, but much improved conditions for the weekend itself. We get another shot at rain on Monday to start next week.

Rest of today – cool, cloudy, with an easterly wind and the influence of a Canadian maritime airmass following the passage of a cold front earlier, we will experience significantly below normal high temperatures only in the low-mid 70s. The cold front will stick around just south of us during this time, and multiple impulses of energy will ride along this front. This means chances for rain, outside of this morning, most likely again in the early evening hours.

Saturday – early morning fog clears out quickly and gives way to a partly to mostly sunny day with much warmer temperatures in the mid-80s.

Sunday – sunny, with high temperatures in the mid-upper 80s.

Monday – a gradual warmup begins Monday with high temperatures into the upper-80s and a chance for showers and thunderstorms.

NYC Weather Update – Jul 10, 2017

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This week’s weather will be dictated by a frontal boundary that will dwell in our vicinity, giving rise to multiple days when we could see rain. A warm, humid, tropical airmass will be in place, which adds the potential for heavy rain and maybe some localized flooding. To top it off, Tuesday also holds a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms.

Rest of today – mostly sunny with high temperatures around normal in the low-80s. A warm front lifting northwards brings a noticeably muggier feel later on.

Tuesday – we will be firmly inside the warm sector, wedged between the warm front mentioned above and an advancing cold front. A prefrontal trough will provide the best dynamics for thunderstorm initiation. Storms that do form will have ample energy to feed off, though less so over areas east of the Hudson under a marine influence. Mostly cloudy otherwise, warm and humid with high temperatures in the mid-80s.

Wednesday – partly sunny, with chances for showers. Highs in the mid-upper 80s depending how much sun we see.

Thursday – another day where we could see rumbles of thunder and rain, mostly cloudy and warm again with highs in the mid-80s.