Autumn weather is here in earnest. In a remarkable change from last week, we’ll see high temperatures below normal for most days. Temperatures will range 30ºF cooler than this time last week. As we look ahead towards the winter, there are mixed signals about whether this will be a cooler, warmer, or average winter.
Rest of today – sunny, breezy, with a high near 60ºF. Northwest winds around 15mph, gusting to 30mph.
Tuesday – mostly sunny, breezy again especially later with northwest winds again between 15-20mph. Cooler, with high temperatures in the mid-50s. With the wind, it will feel quite cool for this time of year.
Wednesday – winds should ease up a bit, but will be cool again with high temperatures potentially only in the low-50s.
Thursday – temperatures rise back into the mid-50s with the approach of a storm system from the west that should bring a chance for rain, increasing through the day.
Winter Outlook
Meteorologists are less confident that we’ll have a La Niña this coming winter, which makes the winter climate outlook more uncertain. There are indications that temperatures may be a bit milder overall. However, that doesn’t preclude the possibility of some serious cold spells also.
There are conflicting forecasts that call for a colder than normal winter also, which you can read about on Weather Underground. Unfortunately, there is no indication we’ll get above average precipitation, which would be welcomed considering most of the Northeast is still dealing with an increasingly serious drought.
This week has seen unprecedented and record breaking warmth for the middle of October, with temperatures that were more indicative of mid-June. But this weekend, we’re about to get a dose of reality as temperatures drop dramatically to below normal levels, in some cases 25ºF cooler than mid-week. We get some chances for much needed rain as well with some uncertainty due to the interaction of a possible tropical/subtropical system.
Rest of today – cloudy with a high around 70ºF. Chance of rain late in the day and into the overnight hours.
Friday – chances for rain increase throughout the day and especially in the evening and overnight hours. Interaction with a possible tropical/subtropical system complicates the forecast in terms of where the heaviest rain sets up. High temperatures in the mid-70s and mostly cloudy.
Saturday – the National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of disturbed weather off the Bahamas that they’re giving a 50% of becoming a named tropical/subtropical system in the next few days. Regardless of whether a named storm forms, this system is expected to merge with an approaching cold front Saturday. This would give the cold front an extra shot of energy and moisture, though it would appear that the bulk of this moisture and rain falls well north of the area. Behind this cold front, the pressure gradient tightens and cold air rushes in from Canada, resulting in a blustery, though sunny, day with high temperatures struggling to hit 60ºF and a brisk northwest wind.
Sunday – winds die down, and temperatures rebound to average levels in the low-60s under mostly sunny skies.
The main weather headline for this weekend was going to be about possible impacts from Hurricane Matthew. I’m glad to report it now appears the storm will miss us, but the good news for us translates for doubly bad news for Florida. We went from a possible hurricane/tropical storm impact this weekend to a weekend where we expect to see some decent, fall-like weather.
Rest of today – sunny with a high temperature in the low-70s.
Friday – sunny, slightly warmer with highs in the mid-70s. High pressure remains anchored over the area, blocking the progress of Matthew northward, and also giving us great weather.
Saturday – a cold front will approach from the west, clouds will increase overnight and there is a chance for rain on Saturday. Mostly cloudy otherwise with highs in the low-70s. Part of the reason Matthew is expected to miss the Northeast is because this frontal boundary was faster to approach than was forecast earlier. This means it will have a role in pushing Matthew out to sea, instead of lifting it north towards the coast here.
Sunday – noticeably cooler with below average high temperatures only in the mid-60s and skies clearing.
Hurricane Matthew No Longer a Threat to the Northeast – Could Hit Florida Twice
As of 11AM EDT, the National Hurricane Center‘s advisory showed that Hurricane Matthew had restrengthened into a robust Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds of 140mph. It had just moved past New Providence island in the Bahamas moving northwest at 14mph, having avoiding a direct landfall on the highly populated island where the capital Nassau sits. However, as we get more information in, it’s becoming clear that some areas of Haiti really got the worst case scenario. This video footage from the small town of Jeremie on the northern side of the western tip of the Tiburon Peninsula shows the catastrophic damage Matthew caused. Jeremie took a direct hit from the storm’s northeastern eyewall, the strongest part of the storm, as Matthew made landfall on Haiti as a Category 4 with 145mph winds. This gives you an idea of the raw power of the storm that’s now headed for Florida.
Satellite image of Matthew at 11AM EDT October 6th, 2016. Below: radar imagery from Miami shows Matthew’s eye.
Outlook for Matthew
Luckily for us, long-range forecast models show that Matthew no longer poses a threat to the Northeast. The flip side is that a fairly unprecedented scenario might befall Florida. Some models are suggesting that after Matthew moves offshore of the Carolinas, it may execute a large cyclonic loop, with the possibility of making a second landfall on South Florida later next week, albeit as a much weaker storm. First, Floridians all up and down the east coast, will have to contend with a dangerous Category 4 storm scraping along the shore or maybe making direct landfall. The coast scraper scenario would result in worse outcomes for Georgia and South Carolina, since reduced interaction with land will mean a stronger storm, as well as higher storm surge.
After a gloomy, but appropriately fall-like start October, this week looks like it will bring much improved weather. Temperatures are expected to be just below or at normal for the majority of the week. The big question mark in the long-term for weather in our region is the progress of Hurricane Matthew, which could impact the area this coming weekend.
Tuesday – mostly cloudy to start with gradual clearing and high temperatures in the upper-60s.
Wednesday – mostly sunny with high temperatures in the upper-60s. High pressure anchored over southeastern Canada will give us an extended period of nice weather.
Thursday – sunny, warmer with high temperatures in the low-70s.
Friday – sunny, with high temperatures in the low-70s.
Hurricane Matthew an Increasing Threat to the US East Coast
Hurricane Matthew as captured by one of NOAA’s geostationary satellites on Monday, Oct 3 at 5PM EDT.
Hurricane Matthew poses an imminent and possibly catastrophic threat to Haiti, and portions of Eastern Cuba. Heavy rains from rain bands associated with the storm have already begun falling over Hispaniola and have hit Jamaica as well. Matthew is a potent Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds at 140mph. It is expected to bring rainfall of 8-20″ across the region, with some places receive 7-11′ of storm surge.
Matthew has displayed a number of anomalous characteristics that have defied forecasters and experts best efforts at predicting its intensity. Matthew underwent a period of rapid intensification, going from tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane with 160mph winds in just under 36 hours. This puts Matthew in an exclusive circle of just a handful of storms in recorded history that have accomplished this feat. Even more amazing, Matthew underwent this rapid intensification in the face of strong southwesterly wind shear that would typically stall a storm’s growth or weaken it.
During much of its life, a large area of intense thunderstorms has accompanied Matthew, at times exceeding the actual storm center in size. Scientists are uncertain as yet what role this feature had in Matthew’s unusual intensification. This feature has been impacting Hispaniola.
Infrared satellite image of Hurricane Matthew as a strong Category 4, note the impressive area of intense thunderstorms east of the storm’s core.
Outlook for Hurricane Matthew
Matthew is expected to either skirt the extreme southwest peninsula of Haiti or make landfall there, then perhaps a secondary landfall on Eastern Cuba. The more interaction Matthew’s circulation has with the high terrain of these regions, the weaker it will get before entering the wide open, and warm waters of the Bahamas. It is expected to maintain major hurricane status (maximum sustained winds greater than 115mph) throughout most of the 4-5 forecast period.
Since even earlier today, major forecast models have come into much better agreement about the path of Matthew in the longer term. The unfortunate news is that the models have settled on solutions that push Matthew further to the west than previous runs. This dramatically increases the chances of a landfall somewhere on the Southeastern US, with Florida also in the range of possible tracks. Should this scenario unfold, we would be spared from a direct landfall here, but would still receive a storm of considerable strength with strong winds and heavy rains possible.
We are in an active weather pattern for the entirety of the weekend, with chances for rain nearly every day. This rain is welcome and much needed, as drought persists across much of the area. Friday looks to deliver the heaviest, most persistent rain. We’re also closely monitoring the progress of Tropical Storm Matthew. While Matthew is still only in the Caribbean, it appears increasingly likely it will impact the East Coast next weekend.
Today – high pressure anchored over southern Quebec/southeastern Canada will serve to block the progress of an upper-level low that’s been drenching areas of the Mid-Atlantic. The influence of the high should keep most of the region relatively dry today, with the exception of further west in New Jersey. However, the high pressure to the east and frontal boundary siting just south of us will induce an onshore northeasterly wind, bringing cooler than normal temperatures only in the mid-60s.
Friday – rain chances ramp up considerably Friday as the front depicted to the south edges slightly northwards. This looks to bring a batch of moderate to heavy rain onshore primarily in the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures will be even cooler than today in the low-60s with overcast skies and that persistent northeast wind.
Saturday – temperatures warm up a little into the upper-60s, but rain chances continue throughout the day along with overcast conditions.
Sunday – rain chances begin to diminish as temperatures continue to warm to around 70ºF. Even if rain doesn’t fall, it’ll still be a cloudy day.
Tropical Storm Matthew – Potential East Coast Impact?
Tropical Storm Matthew formed just east of the Lesser Antilles a couple days ago as a vigorous tropical storm and has been steadily progressing west and growing in intensity. Matthew is already a 65mph storm. It is being impacted by moderate southwesterly wind shear that will impede significant strengthening the next couple days. However, this shear is expected to ease as it moves over the warmest waters of the Caribbean. That should allow for more rapid intensification.
Of course, Matthew is far from being a threat to us now, but for days, it’s been clear from various forecast models that this storm will eventually turn north. The pivotal question for whether Matthew becomes a direct threat to us is when this turn north occurs. It’s not looking particularly good for us now, as the forecast package from the National Hurricane Center continues to suggest Matthew will eventually move up the East Coast next week.
Today marks the official start of astronomical autumn, even though it will feel anything but fall-like today. Temperatures cool off considerably this weekend, which will lead us into a period of average to below average temperatures for the next week or so.
Rest of today – warm with high temperatures in the low-mid 80s and sunny skies.
Friday – warmer still with high temperatures in the mid-upper 80s and mostly sunny skies. Small chance for showers overnight as a cold front encroaches from the west.
Saturday – with the aforementioned cold front swinging through, we will get a noticeable change in airmasses from a more humid, tropical influence we’ve felt the last few days, to a drier, cooler, continental airmass from Canada. The resulting swing in temperatures will be dramatic, with high temperatures on Saturday ranging 10ºF lower than Friday in the mid-70s.
Sunday – one of many sunny, fall-like days coming with temperatures in the low-mid 70s.
Monday – almost a clone of Sunday, sunny with highs in the low-70s.
Yesterday was the Mid-Autumn Festival, a traditional harvest festival celebrated by many cultures in East Asia. It certainly felt more fall-like yesterday with below average temperatures after we spent one day near 90ºF on Wednesday. The fall weather continues this weekend, with a chance for some much needed rain Sunday.
Rest of today – crisp and cool with high temperatures below normal in the low-mid 70s.
Saturday – a bit warmer, with temperatures a couple degrees above normal under sunny skies, in the upper-70s.
Sunday – ahead of an advancing cold front, we could see showers, thunderstorms, and heavy rain, particularly in the afternoon. high temperatures will warm up a little ahead of this front, into the low-80s under mostly cloudy skies.
Monday – since the frontal boundary won’t pass through until late in the day, there’s a lingering chance for showers with high temperatures hovering around 80ºF.
After a steamy end of the week last week, we get a refreshing change to fall-like weather for most of this week. The only exception will be Wednesday, when there looks to be a return to hotter temperatures.
Rest of today – high pressure is in control for today, which should yield mostly sunny conditions with high temperatures in the mid-upper 70s.
Tuesday – high pressure moves a bit further to our east, allowing for warmer air to flow in from the south. This will result in temperatures warming up to around 80ºF with sunny skies.
Wednesday – as the high pressure center above continues to move east, return flow form the south and southwest will continue to warm temperatures up and increase the humidity. High temperatures are expected to be in the mid-upper 80s.
Thursday – a weak cold front will pass through overnight Wednesday into Thursday. In the wake of this frontal boundary, a new area of high pressure will build over the Great Lakes. This will result in much cooler temperatures, in the mid-70s with a northerly wind. Thursday night, which is the Mid-Autumn Festival, should see spotless skies for moon viewing.
This past week, weather headlines were dominated by the uncertain course of how Post-tropical Cyclone Hermine would unfold. Now that Hermine has dissipated and is well behind us, we look ahead to the end of the week which will start off warm, but cool off somewhat.
Rest of today – it’s sunny now, but clouds are moving in from the north and west, and will likely result in partly sunny skies later on. High temperatures will range into the upper-80s and around 90ºF in some parts.
Friday – with an area of high pressure to our southwest, warm, humid air from south will flow into the region allowing temperatures to rise into the low-90s. There is a chance for isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon.
Saturday – a frontal boundary will be lingering in our vicinity during the day. This should yield a mostly cloudy day with a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout. High temperatures will be a bit cooler, in the mid-upper 80s.
Sunday – the frontal boundary pushes through as a cold front and brings in some relief from heat and humidity. Skies will clear and allow temperatures to rise to the mid-80s.
Drought Persists, Some Relief Ahead?
Parts of our state are still dealing with an extreme drought, though in our region, we’re “lucky” enough to only have a moderate to severe drought in parts of Long Island. The monthly outlook does call for some drought relief for Long Island, though.
Although tropical storm warnings are still up for the five boroughs, coastal Connecticut, Long Island, and New Jersey, it appears at this time that the threat from Hermine is diminishing. The center of Hermine is now located well out into the Atlantic Ocean, and even if it does make its eventual turn to the north and northwest, it will be far enough east of us that most impacts should be on the moderate side.
Rest of today – over the last few days, Hermine has continuously trended east of the official National Hurricane Center forecast track, and has still not made a turn to the north or northwest. It is still forecast to make that turn today, bringing it closer to shore, and increasing clouds in the area. Winds should pick up as well, with high temperatures around 80ºF.
Post-tropical cyclone Hermine this afternoon
Labor Day (Monday) – assuming that Hermine does make its projected turn towards the coast, Monday would entail a chance for rain, as well as strong winds, possibly approaching tropical storm force. High temperatures are only expected to reach into the upper-70s in this scenario. Could be a tough day for the Caribbean Day Parade.
Personally, I do not believe Hermine will produce tropical storm conditions (sustained wind greater than 39mph, less than 74mph). during this time, the confidence in this track forecast has been low, and any turn towards the coast has yet to verify. That said, nothing about this complex storm would be surprising, and a shift in storm track 50-60 miles west could dramatically increase the likelihood of the city receiving tropical storm conditions. Primary impacts will still be moderate to major coastal flooding with multiple tide cycles of storm surge and large waves leading to serious beach erosion in some places.
Based on latest track forecasts and current position of Hermine, NYC rests in a zone of 30% chance of experiencing tropical storm force winds, with the probability increasing sharply further east.
Tuesday – could end up being a pretty decent day if Hermine is further off to the east at this point. If that happens, we’ll probably see decreasing clouds and improving conditions with high temperatures in the mid-upper 80s. If Hermine sticks around, then we could see another day of wind and rain.
