Category Archives: NYC

NYC Labor Day Weekend Weather – TS Hermine – Sep 2, 2016

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I wrote that I would not be posting any updates while on vacation unless there were to be a special event that warranted it. Well, the likely approach of the remnants of Tropical Storm Hermine into the offshore waters in our region certainly warrants this special update. As of now, it appears that Labor Day itself will be the only day when we could see significant impacts from this storm, but this could change. I will likely have another update Sunday.

Rest of today – sunny, and pleasant with a high in the low-80s. This will be by far the best day of the long weekend.

Saturday – increasing clouds, high temperature around 80ºF.

Sunday – mostly cloudy, with chances for rain increasing in the afternoon. Cool, with highs only in the mid-upper 70s.

Labor Day (Monday) – tropical storm conditions possible, strong and gusty winds, and possible periods of heavy rain, especially in coastal areas. Dangerous rip currents at the beaches, as well as moderate to major coastal flooding. Mostly cloudy otherwise with high temperatures in the upper-70s.

Tropical Storm Hermine this morning
Tropical Storm Hermine this morning

Tuesday – with the remnants of Hermine currently forecast to linger off of the coast of the Northeast, we could see another day of possible tropical storm conditions. Warmer, with high temperatures in the low-80s.

Tropical Storm Hermine’s Forecast

Since the inception of Hermine as a tropical wave off the coast of West Africa, forecasters have had difficulty in accurately capturing the track and intensity of this storm. Its approach towards our region is no different. The forecast is complicated by the fact that Hermine will be completing a process of extratropical transition. A complex set of interactions between it and a frontal boundary adds a high degree of uncertainty towards the late period of this forecast.

Forecast Track

As of this morning, the National Hurricane Center’s official 5 day forecast called for Hermine to continue tracking rapidly northeast just inland of the Southeast coast as it initially interacts with a frontal boundary in its vicinity. During this period, it is expected to weaken, but by Saturday evening, it is expected to re-emerge over open water off the North Carolina Coast. At this point, Hermine is expected to have completed extratropical transition. It will begin another interaction with a baroclinic frontal zone, which is expected to significantly slow its forward progress down. This slowing will likely also lead to the storm erratically meandering off the Northeast coast, possibly doing a loop.

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Some major forecast model’s current output for Hermine
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GFS ensemble models (spaghetti models), white denotes the consensus track

Intensity Forecast

During the period that the storm is over land, it will weaken continuously. However, by Saturday evening, when it is expected to re-emerge over open water, and complete extratropical transition, it will gain in strength. The extratropical transition will impart energy from baroclinic forces (interactions between airmasses of differing pressures), and the storm is expected to re-intensify into a strong extratropical storm with sustained winds of 60-65mph.

Impacts

The intensity and location of these impacts will depend greatly on the eventual track for this storm.

Tropical storm watches are in effect for the entire New Jersey coast. Heavy rain in coastal areas. Strong sustained winds, winds gusting in excess of 50mph in some coastal areas. Beach erosion along with coastal flooding, possibly for an extended period of time. High surf and dangerous rip currents.

 

NYC Weekend Weather – Aug 18, 2016

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The end of this week and this weekend will see a gradual transition away from the long-lasting heat and humidity that has gripped the area over the last couple of weeks. There will be some chance for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon, with more significant chances for rain Sunday night and going into Monday.

Rest of today – clouds are expected to clear somewhat, allowing high temperatures to reach into the mid-80s. Some slight chance for showers and thunderstorms exists this afternoon.

Friday – mostly sunny skies and high temperatures reaching into the upper-80s, and again, a chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Saturday – pretty much the same as Friday, high temperatures in the upper-80s, with a chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Sunday – starts out decently enough, but clouds will increase, temperatures will probably end up in the mid-80s. A complex set up of multiple frontal boundaries will be moving in/setting up over the area later Sunday into the overnight hours. The exact timing of the arrival of more significant rains is still not very certain.

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Monday – depending on the timing of the frontal boundaries above, we could see a mostly dry day Monday, with temperatures in the normal range, right around 85ºF.

 

 

NYC Weather Update – Aug 15, 2016

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The scorching heat from the weekend isn’t completely gone to start the week. In general, the weather will be cooler than last week, though we’re still expecting above average temperatures for this period. Luckily, we’ve gotten some rain from the extended period of unsettled weather last week and over the weekend, which is helping to ameliorate drought conditions over the region.

Rest of today – high temperatures around 90ºF with a heat advisory in effect. It would appear that a round of rain and/or thunderstorms is headed towards the area around 8PM tonight.

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Tuesday – a nearly stationary front will allow for some showers and thunderstorms to develop in the region, particularly in the afternoon hours. Only a tad cooler with high temperatures in the upper-80s under mostly cloudy skies.

Wednesday – the stationary front mentioned above will lift north eventually as a warm front. This will set the stage for some possibly strong thunderstorms on Wednesday as a trailing cold front makes its push into the area. High temperatures will again be in the upper-80s with partly sunny skies.

Thursday – with a cold front finally moving through, we should see an end to the rain chance, and temperatures in the upper-80s under mostly sunny skies, but with a drier, less humid feel.

Drought Conditions Improving?

The near-term outlook for temperature and precipitation from the Climate Prediction Center both point to above average trends.

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Despite warm temperatures, the last week of multiple rounds of rain has helped improve drought conditions in some portions of the region. You’ll see in the second graphic below, due to the rains both up to this point and that are forecast, drought removal might happen for much of the Southeaster New York area in the next month. This includes NYC but excludes Long Island, where a severe drought continues.

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NYC Weekend Weather – Aug 11, 2016

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The second half of this week and this weekend will feel as though we’re living in a tropical monsoon climate zone, given the extended period of unsettled weather that we’ll be experiencing. Nearly every day over the course of the next 5-7 days, we’ll see a chance for showers and thunderstorms, some capable of producing torrential rainfall, along with a very warm and humid airmass staying in place.

Rest of today – periods of clouds and sun, likely becoming mostly cloudy this afternoon. There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms, with the first batch appearing to arrive around lunch. High temperatures will be around 90ºF but with the very humid air, heat indexes will be well into the upper-90s. This is the reason for there being a Heat Advisory in place until Saturday evening.

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Friday – similar set up to today, periods of sun mixed in with mostly cloudy spans as well. Highs will again be around 90ºF, with a chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon hours. The exact timing, placement, and intensity of the storms for Friday and this entire forecast period will be difficult to forecast with accuracy ahead of time.

This is due to the fact that many of the storms will be driven by subtle perturbations in the atmosphere moving around the periphery of a Bermuda High, and differential day time heating – hence why the chance for showers and thunderstorms is greatest in the afternoon hours. Sea breeze convergence boundaries are likely to serve as triggers for these storms. This Bermuda High is what has been and will be responsible for maintaining the oppressively hot and humid conditions. The tropical airmass it brings will mean that any storms that form will have the potential to tap into tropical moisture and produce very heavy rain that could lead to localized flash flooding.

Saturday – will be by far the hottest day of the weekend with high temperatures forecast to reach into the mid-upper 90s. Heat indexes will be in the upper-90s to low-100s in some parts, likely triggering Excessive Heat Warnings. Once again, a chance for showers and thunderstorms will occur in the afternoon hours.

Sunday – a cold front will approach the region on Sunday, which will lead to a more consistent and higher chance for organized thunderstorm activity. High temperatures will remain hot, in the low-90s.

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Monday – low confidence for the forecast through Monday, as the timing of the cold front passage is uncertain. It may linger, which would result in yet more chances for rain. High temperatures should cool off to below 90ºF in the upper-80s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Aug 5, 2016

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We’ve been able to enjoy a very comfortable week of summer weather. High temperatures have been largely held in check in the low-mid 80s this week. This weekend, there will be a chance for some rain Saturday, but Sunday will be another nice day with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the mid-80s.

Rest of today – mostly sunny, high around 85ºF.

Saturday – watching for the risk of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms tomorrow. The degree of severity will hinge upon how much cloud cover there is during the first half of the day, and whether any storms pop up early. If there are more clouds early, and some storms show up early, the available energy for storms in the afternoon associated with a cold front will be limited. Ahead of this cold front, warm, humid air will flow in, and temperatures should peak near 90ºF.

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Sunday – skies will clear quickly following the passage of the aforementioned cold front. High pressure begins to take over and will give us a nice, sunny day, with highs in the mid-80s.

Monday – almost a clone of Sunday with mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid-80s.

Tuesday – with high pressure still almost directly overhead, we will get another nice day with highs in the mid-80s.

Slight Improvement in Drought Conditions

With recent rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms that have impacted the area, we’ve seen a slight improvement in drought conditions, but the situation is still far from desirable.

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NYC Weekend Weather – Jul 28, 2016

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We finally get a break from the heat along with some much needed rain in the next few days. Saturday looks to be the best day of the weekend. High temperatures this weekend will range anywhere between 15-20ºF cooler than last weekend. 

Overnight – lows in the mid-70s as a low pressure center passes almost directly over NYC. Because the low will be right over us, the main area of the heaviest rain will remain north of the city.

Friday – showers punctuated by periods of steady, heavier rain as bands of rain develop and wrap around the low pressure center as it tracks east. High temperatures in the low-80s with overcast skies. This low pressure system will thrive off the humid, tropical airmass in place over the region. A flash flood watch has been issued to reflect the possibility of some areas receiving 1-2″/hour rains. Embedded thunderstorms are possible, but are unlikely to reach severe limits. The bulk of the rain will fall overnight into the morning hours, and should begin tapering off in the afternoon from west to east. 

Screen Shot 2016-07-28 at 6.53.30 PM fill_94qwbgSaturday – high pressure passes briefly giving us a mostly dry day with partly sunny skies with highs in the mid-80s.

Sunday – another disturbance pushes through from the south providing more chances for rain and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy with highs in the low-80s otherwise.

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Monday – skies gradually clear and temperatures warm back into the low-mid 80s.

Tuesday – warm and sunny with highs again in the mid-80s

Drought Conditions Forecast to Persist

Despite the rains this weekend, many parts of the area remain under a moderate drought, having received only about 25% of normal precipitation for this past month. The outlook for the season calls for persistence of drought conditions as below normal to normal precipitation will be insufficient to break the drought.

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NYC Weather Update – Jul 25, 2016

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Recent weather headlines have been dominated by the heat. This will continue through most of the week, with relief not really in sight until Friday. There will be a chance for severe thunderstorms today, but otherwise, there will be little in the way of rain.

Rest of today – mostly sunny, hot, with highs in the mid-90s. Humidity will make it feel like the lower-100s. The Storm Prediction Center has placed parts of the region under a slight risk for severe weather today. This relates to what appear to be multiple line segments of strong to severe thunderstorms advancing ahead of a weak cold front that look to impact the area during the PM rush.

Screen Shot 2016-07-25 at 10.47.24 AM

Tuesday – with the weak cold front above passing through, there will be some drop in humidity. However, temperatures are still expected to rise into the mid-90s under mostly sunny skies.

Wednesday – temperatures finally start to back off the mid-90s into the low-90s under mostly sunny skies.

Thursday – increasing clouds, high near 90ºF.

Drought Continues to Grip the Northeast

Drought continues to worsen and is now prevalent in many parts of the Northeast, with areas in Western New York and Massachusetts particularly hard hit.

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NYC Weekend Weather – Jul 21, 2016

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This weekend’s weather can be summed up in one word: hot. In fact, if current forecasts hold, this upcoming stretch may see our first extended 90ºF+ heat wave. High temperatures don’t appear likely to drop below 90ºF until next Wednesday. During that time, the humidity will actually increase until a cold front breaks through late Tuesday. This will be another prime beach/upstate getaway weekend.

Rest of today – sunny with a high around 90ºF.

Friday – mostly sunny, slightly warmer with a high in the low-90s. There is a chance for strong to marginally severe thunderstorms late Friday with the passage of a cold front. Any relief from heat that this front and storms associated with it bring will be short-lived.

Saturday – high pressure quickly returns and temperatures continue to rise along with it. Highs are expected in the mid-90s with mostly sunny skies.

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Sunday – a bit cooler, but humidity will increase as a warm front pushes through late on Sunday. High temperatures in the low-90s.

Monday – showers and thunderstorms are possible later Monday preceding a cold front that is forecast to pass on Tuesday. Highs will remain in the low-90s.

Above Average Temperatures to Stick Around

The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 Day and 8-14 Day temperature outlook continues to call for above normal temperatures. The heat is here to stay.

610temp.new814temp.new

NYC Weather Update – Jul 18, 2016

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This week will be bookended by hot weather, with a break from the heat forecast right in the middle. The only chance for rain during this stretch will be later this afternoon and into the early evening hours.

Rest of today – the Storm Prediction Center has placed parts of the region under a slight risk of severe weather today as a cold front approaches. As usual, areas north and west of the city are more likely to experience organized convective activity, since there will be a stabilizing influence near the coast from the marine air layer. Best timing would appear to be in the evening rush, when a couple lines of thunderstorms could affect the area. High temperatures will reach into the low-mid 90s before this under mostly sunny skies.

day1otlk_1300 Screen Shot 2016-07-18 at 10.06.13 AM

Tuesday – with the passage of the the cold front above, there will be a noticeable change in the humidity level for Tuesday. Despite high temperatures reaching into the upper-80s, it will feel considerably more comfortable with the drier air in place.

Wednesday – an area of high pressure behind the cold front will take over for the latter portion of the week. On Wednesday, it will be set up just to our southwest, which will enable cooler winds from the north to bring a brief respite from the heat. High temperatures are only expected to reach into the low-mid 80s.

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Thursday – as the high pressure moves off to the east, winds will turn to the west and southwest, and there will be a corresponding increase in high temperatures into the mid-upper 80s again as warmer air returns.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jul 14, 2016

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It will be a steamy, hot end to the week before the temperatures cool down a little and we get to enjoy a weekend of idyllic summer weather. Some potential for severe thunderstorms exists Thursday. A scattered thunderstorm chance also exists Friday and Saturday night, but the days look dry.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy, hot, humid, with high temperatures in the upper-80s to near 90ºF. A strong to severe thunderstorm is possible this afternoon, particularly in areas north of the city. If we do get clipped by storms in the city, we’ll be on the very southern periphery of the stronger storms, so it doesn’t seem all that likely we’ll see severe weather. Best timing for storms will be in the 3-6PM range.

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Friday – with more sun, Friday is expected to be even hotter than today with highs in the low-mid 90s.

Saturday – even though a cold front will finally pass through Friday, the frontal passage will not bring relief from the heat Friday (the frontal boundary separates two airmasses of disparate dewpoints, and not temperatures). Temperatures will hold in the upper-80s to 90ºF Saturday with mostly sunny skies. It will be an ideal day for heading to the beach as there should be a sea breeze on south-facing shores resulting in 5ºF cooler temperatures.

Sunday – warm, with high temperatures in the mid-upper 80s and partly sunny skies.