A quite and mild weekend is in store for the region with high pressure in control of the weather throughout the period. Temperatures should climb steadily as winds shift and persist from the southwest. We could see high temperatures near 60ºF by Sunday.
Rest of today – clear to mostly sunny, with highs around 50.
Saturday – sunny, with high temperatures in the low-50s.
Sunday – milder, and sunny again with high temperatures in the upper-50s to near 60ºF.
Monday – clouds look to be increasing on Monday with a storm system approaching from the south expected to pass on Tuesday. Temperatures will be cooler in the mid-50s.
Seasonal Climate Outlooks
As we are entering into the winter, it’s worth looking ahead at what the seasonal climate out looks are from the Climate Prediction Center.
Drought conditions are expected to improve over many areas of the nation, and the persistent moderate drought in our region is forecast to end.
Temperature and precipitation are forecast to be above normal for the region. As you’ll note from the images below, some fairly significant deviations from normal are expected across large portions of the United States, due in large part to the effects of a strong El Niño that’s been gripping the Eastern and Central Pacific for months now.
The chart below shows you the sea surface temperature anomalies for the Pacific – notice that a large swathe of the equatorial Pacific from about the international date line east is experiencing extremely warm temperatures for this time of year – a full 5ºC above normal in large areas. This is why climate forecasters can be more confident than usual in their outlooks for temperature and precipitation this season.
We start this week off with cool, but slightly above average temperatures in the upper-40s to around 50ºF. A warm up occurs midweek along with a passing frontal system, then a return back to seasonably cool temperatures takes place to end the week.
Rest of today – increasingly cloudy with high temperatures peaking in the mid-upper 40s.
Tuesday – a warm front approaching from the south will provide for an increasing chance of rain tonight into early Tuesday. Temperatures in some inland areas may support a brief period of freezing rain before transition to all rain occurs early in the morning. Temperatures should reach around 50ºF with periods of light rain.
Wednesday – temperatures will warm into the mid-upper 50s by Wednesday following the passage of the aforementioned warm front and prior to the passage of a cold front. Rain continues in periods throughout the day and begins to taper off late Wednesday going into the overnight hours.
Thursday – once the cold front dives through, winds pick up from the northwest again, and drive temperatures down into the upper-40s to near 50ºF Thursday. Expecting dry and mostly sunny conditions otherwise.
Thanksgiving has given us some spectacular weather to be grateful for, but a cool down is in the cards for the region as we enter this weekend. A cold front will be pushing through the area slowly Saturday, bringing some rain, then colder temperatures as cooler air from Canada filters in behind the front. By Monday, high temperatures will only be in the upper-40s.
Rest of today – increasing clouds later today, but for the rest of the afternoon, warm with record-breaking high temperatures in the low-mid 60s.
Saturday – rain likely later in the day, cloudy with cooler temperatures in the mid-50s.
Sunday – a lingering chance of showers with mostly cloudy skies and a high near 50ºF.
Monday – cooler, but dry, with temperatures only in the upper-40s.
Thanksgiving week starts off with a chill, but temperatures will warm nicely to end the week. Thanksgiving Day itself is shaping up to be a superb day with above normal temperatures near 60ºF and mostly sunny skies. There’s no real threat of precipitation worth mentioning through the week either.
Rest of today – cool with a high only in the low-40s.
Tuesday – will start off with temperatures barely above freezing in the city, and well below freezing in the outlying suburbs. In fact, a freeze watch has been issued for the city (with the exception of Staten Island, which already had a freeze earlier this fall). Winds will still be kicking up in the early part of the day, bringing wind chill values in the 30s. High temperatures only in the mid-40s.
Wednesday – the high pressure depicted above will move offshore to our east. This puts us on the west side of the high, and the clockwise, return flow around that high pressure will mean a gradual shift in winds to the southwest, bringing warmer air along with it. Temperatures should rebound back into the lower-50s with lots of sunshine.
Thanksgiving Day – really can’t ask for better viewing conditions for the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade. Temperatures at the start of the parade should be in the upper-40s to near 50ºF. Light winds should not present a problem for the multitude of balloons. High temperatures should reach into the mid-upper 50s by the afternoon.
Friday – should end up being the warmest day of the week, with high temperatures climbing into the low-60s ahead of an approaching cold front.
A soaking rainstorm passes through the area later today and then paves the way for cooler, drier air to take over this weekend. By the end of this weekend, temperatures will only be in the low-50s and even upper-40s going into Monday. Looking ahead, temperatures return to normal ranges in the low-50s next week before another warmup around Thanksgiving. Currently, it looks as though the first week of December will open up with cooler than average temperatures.
Rest of today – cloudy and warm with a steady wind from the southeast. Scattered light rain is occurring across parts of the area now. The heavier rain should begin falling later this afternoon (around the PM rush) as more moisture works its way in from the south and the storm system closes in, providing better atmospheric conditions for rain. The rains are still much needed for most of the Tri-State area (in particular Souther Connecticut and Long Island) that remains in the grip of a moderate drought.
High Resolution Rapid Refresh model simulated radar for 5PM EST
Friday – rain ends overnight into Friday morning. Skies clear rapidly with temperatures topping out in the mid-50s.
Saturday – high pressure builds in behind the frontal boundary that will pass early Friday. This high pressure will shift winds to the west and then northwest, bringing in cooler, drier air from Canada. Temperatures will only be around 50 on Saturday as a result.
Sunday – pretty much a clone of Saturday, mostly sunny skies, cool with highs around 50ºF.
Monday – cooler, with high temperatures that may struggle to hit 50ºF.
This week will feature a mixed bag of warm and cool temperatures, along with a bout of moderate-heavy rain and even a couple thunderstorms associated with a cold front passing through the region on Thursday into Friday. Timing of this frontal passage isn’t 100% certain at this point. However, it is clear that behind this front, temperatures will take a dive into more seasonable ranges in the upper-40s to around 50ºF by this weekend.
Rest of today – clear skies with a high temperature well into the mid-60s. This is due in part to high pressure to our south that’s allowing for warm air to flow in from the west.
Tuesday – quite a different story in terms of temperatures. A backdoor cold front pushes through overnight, leading to a shift in winds to the northeast by tomorrow. This wind pattern favors cooler temperatures as the winds circulating clockwise around a high pressure center over the Canadian Maritimes bring in a cooler airmass. High temperatures will struggle to hit 50ºF in this atmosphere.
Wednesday – temperatures quickly rebound as winds switch back to the south-southeast ahead of a cold front which will be passing through the area sometime late Thursday. Cloud should increase during the day, but enough sun should still get through to get temperatures back to near 60.
Thursday – a mostly cloudy day with periods of rain throughout looks to be the headline for Thursday. Temperatures should warm up nicely into the mid-60s with warm, moist air entering the area from the south ahead of the actual cold front. Periods of heavy rain at times could be accompanied by an occasional thunderstorm especially as the cold front nears.
We have a fairly active weather week ahead of us, with two separate chances for rain coming from two different storms, the first of which impacts the area tomorrow and tomorrow night. The second storm system to affect us this week will make its passage on Thursday. Temperatures are much more seasonable this week with high temperatures hovering near 60 for most of the week.
Rest of today – mostly sunny with a high near 60 degrees.
Tuesday – a low pressure center over the Gulf coast today will strengthen into a coastal low as it tracks to our south and east Tuesday and Tuesday night. Like most coastal lows of this type, a large shield of overrunning precipitation will advance ahead of the actual low. This should translate to a rainy day Tuesday, with steady chances for precipitation throughout the course of the day and into the overnight hours. An east wind will also bring a cool, onshore breeze into the area, giving the day a raw feel despite high temperatures near 60.
Wednesday (Veterans Day) – looks to be bookended by wet weather, but should be a mostly dry day with more clouds than sun, and a high again near 60.
Thursday – a cold front associated with a low pressure system that’s currently over the plains will bring about our second chance for rain this week, although this round of rain should not be as long-lived or drenching as tomorrow’s storm. High temperatures should remain around 60.
The warm trend we’ve enjoyed this week comes to an abrupt halt over the weekend as we return to seasonable highs in the upper-50s. We are due to enjoy a couple more days of much above average warmth beforehand, as we’re now in the warm sector south of a warm front that has pushed through and west of a cold front due in late Friday and into the overnight hours Saturday.
Rest of today – mostly cloudy with a high in the upper-60s. A slight chance of rain especially later in the afternoon.
Friday – we’ll be firmly within the warm sector tomorrow with a steady southwesterly flow. Warm air will work its way into the area and yield near record-breaking temperatures in the mid-70s, and possibly even warmer if there are any breaks for sun. There will be another chance at rain tomorrow afternoon and evening as the cold front nears and passes through.
Saturday – a marked change in sensible weather is on tap for Saturday once the cold front passes through the region. Skies should clear from west to east over the day, but high temperatures will only be in the low-60s.
Sunday – even cooler, with highs only in the mid-50s under sunny skies.
It’s the first week of November, but it will feel more like late September with the warm temperatures that are on tap for this week. A robust ridge of high pressure will set up over the area and persist through most of the week, allowing for a very mild airmass to build into the region and set the stage for some unseasonable warmth.
Rest of today – cloudy with high temperatures in the mid-60s.
Tuesday – clouds clear out with high temperatures warming into the low-70s.
Wednesday – warm temperatures continue with highs around 70 and sunny skies.
Thursday – more clouds than sun, but warm again with a high near 70.
After a brief warmup mid-week, we return to more seasonable fall weather for the weekend. Luckily, it appears that this weekend should be rain free, providing excellent conditions for Halloween revelers, Mets fans, and NYC Marathon runners alike. It was quite a different story 3 years ago this weekend, when the city and indeed the entire region was just beginning to comprehend the scope and magnitude of the destruction wrought by a once in 500 year storm: Hurricane Sandy.
Rest of today – sunny, with a high right around average at 60ºF. It will be a chilly evening with lows in the 40s. Temperatures during game time at Citi Field should be in the low-50s.
Saturday – cooler, with highs in the mid-50s, but again with plenty of sun with high pressure in the vicinity. Temperatures for trick-or-treaters out there should again be in the low-50s range tomorrow afternoon and early evening. Weather for World Series game 4 should also be in that low-50s range.
Sunday – AM temperatures should at race time for the marathon should be hovering right around the 50ºF mark with only a light wind. High temperatures warm up into the low-60s later in the day with a warm front moving through. Temperatures won’t cool off that much during the early evening hours, so if the Mets do make it to game 5, conditions should be good for viewing the game. There is only a slight chance for showers overnight into Sunday.
Monday – clouds and sun on Monday with temperatures climbing into the low-mid 60s.
Hurricane Sandy Retrospective
Yesterday marked the 3-year anniversary of Hurricane Sandy’s landfall on the central New Jersey coast. Sandy was in many ways a uniquely devastating force of nature: as it matured, it’s size ballooned, allowing for it to push up a significant storm surge ahead of it. Unlike most mature tropical cyclones that reach the mid-latitudes, Sandy did not recurve out to sea and spare the East Coast. At these latitudes, the predominant wind patterns are from the west (the westerlies), and there’s usually a cold front that pushes tropical cyclones to the east. In Sandy’s case, a low pressure system to its northwest actually produced the opposite effect: Sandy was pulled to the northwest along the counterclockwise cyclonic flow around that low pressure system. This resulted in a historic landfall on costal New Jersey. As the forecast models came into consensus on this result, I began to fear for the worst. Because Hurricane Irene had passed the previous year with great hype, but minimal damage, I had a bad feeling that many New Yorkers would not heed the warnings about this monster storm, even though there was high confidence in an historic event about to unfold.
A monster storm
Sandy’s landfall also coincided with a supermoon high-tide, which meant that its already significant storm surge was augmented that much more by the pull of the moon. This resulted in catastrophic storm surge inundation along a vast expanse of the Northeast. The geology and bathymetry of New York Harbor made it all the more susceptible to storm surge, as its funnel shape served to channel and amplify Sandy’s storm surge. The fact that Sandy made its land fall to the south of New York meant that its most damaging northeast quadrant (Northern Hemisphere cyclones get a boost in the northeast quadrant because the direction of winds in that quadrant coincide with the direction of the Earth’s Coriolis force) hit the city dead on. A record-breaking storm tied of 14 feet was recorded at The Battery in Manhattan, smashing the previous record of 10 feet.
Scenes of utter destruction like the one below were commonplace. Over 100 deaths were recorded, with areas like Staten Island’s east coast and the Rockaways particularly badly hit. The costs of the damage ran over $60 billion dollars. To this day, many people’s lives still have not returned to normal, many are still not able to move back into their homes.
On a personal level, I was very fortunate to be in a neighborhood that was left high and dry, and crucially with power. Along with thousands of other New Yorkers, I felt an urgent and compelling need to get out on the ground and help our neighbors who were hardest hit and who had lost so much. My wife, who had just started working at a new school, found out that week that one of her coworkers had been killed – crushed by a fallen tree – during the storm. My volunteer work after the storm took me to many areas of New York City that I had not explored before. I saw witnessed scenes that I will never forget. For me, this day will always entail with it a sense of grieving, and will alway serve as a reminder to remain vigilant, because the storm that we never thought would happen here did – and could again.
