Category Archives: NYC

NYC Weekend Weather – Oct 15, 2015

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If you like crisp, cool, fall weather, then this coming weekend is for you. Following a cold front moving through tonight into tomorrow, temperatures this weekend will feel more like November than October, with highs only in the low-50s on Sunday. Depending on wind conditions, this Sunday and Monday morning may see the first frosts/freezes of the season. The cooler than normal temperature trend continues into Monday, but warmer temperatures return by mid-week next week.

Rest of today – an archetypal fall day with high temperatures right around normal in the mid-60s and a clear sky.

Friday – mostly cloudy to start the day with some very small chance at rain as a cold front passes over. Once the front clears the region, skies should clear and temperatures will actually be a bit warmer in the mid-upper 60s.

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Saturday – behind the cold front passing on Friday, temperatures take a plunge with gusty northwest winds flowing around an area of high pressure building to our west. High temperatures will probably not break 60ºF in the city, even cooler in the outlying suburbs.

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Sunday –  the airmass associated with this high pressure will likely set off the first snows of the season in parts of the Upper Midwest. Not surprisingly, this will translate to chilly temperatures Saturday night, Sunday and Monday. Lows overnight into Sunday will be in the upper-30s in the city (brrr). Frost may develop on Sunday morning in interior areas, ending the growing season. High temperatures Sunday will struggle to hit the mid-50s in the city.

Monday – basically a repeat of Sunday, same crisp, cool conditions with high temperatures in the mid-50s.

NYC Weather Update – Oct 5, 2015

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After a week of raw, rainy, windy weather, we return to a warmer, closer to average week with dry conditions. The ample rain that fell last week should have put a dent in the drought conditions over the region. Archetypal fall weather will prevail this week.

Rest of today – skies should clear up gradually over the course of the day. High temperatures should top out in the mid-60s.

Tuesday – warmer, with high temperatures around 70. High pressure building from the west should lead to mostly sunny skies.noaad2

Wednesday – high pressure will be firmly in control, with plenty of sun. High temperatures should be around the low-70s.

Thursday – another nice day on tap with high temperatures in the upper-60s to around 70 and sunny skies.

NYC Weather Update – Hurricane Joaquin in the Picture? – Oct 1, 2015

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This week of damp, grey weather is leading up to a weekend when the uncertain future of Hurricane Joaquin may have an enormous impact on our weather. Since its formation earlier this week, Hurricane Joaquin has intensified steadily into a Category 3 storm currently spinning around the Bahamas. Joaquin’s future is still highly uncertain, and there’s been considerable spread between major forecast models as to where the storm will be at the end of the weekend. At this point, a landfall in the NYC region late this weekend is not out of the question.

Rest of today – cloudy and cool with high temperatures only in the mid-60s.

Friday – rain at times, windy and raw, with northeast winds in the 20-25mph range. It will feel like November with highs only in the mid-50s.

Saturday – similar to Friday in terms of sensible weather, with highs only in the upper-50s.

Sunday – this is where things get interesting depending on the track of Hurricane Joaquin. Depending on how closely Joaquin comes to hitting us, we could be looking at tropical storm conditions building through the day. If, on the other hand, it recurves out to sea, Sunday could be the best day of the weekend.

The Big Question: Where’s Joaquin Going?

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Currently, Joaquin is a Category 3 storm over the Bahamas, with noticeable central eye, and symmetrical outflow in satellite images. Joaquin has been moving southwest along the edge of a subtropical ridge. Joaquin is an environment favorable for continued intensification, sitting over some very warm water with moderate wind shear.

Forecast Track

Over the last couple of days, forecast models have been set in basically two camps, one curving Joaquin northwest into North Carolina or Virginia. The other camp continues to point to a recurvature of Joaquin. Given the large spread between the models, National Hurricane Center forecasters have been emphatic about the degree of uncertainty with the track forecast up to this point.

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Some major forecast models’ track forecasts for Joaquin
Official NHC track forecast
Official NHC track forecast

Potential Impacts

Regardless of the landfall point for Joaquin, it will be contributing to a plume of tropical moisture leading to widespread heavy rainfall over a large portion of the east coast.

With the persistent northeast winds ahead of the northward advancing Joaquin, coastal flooding is also likely to take place in flood prone areas.

5 day rainfall totals
5 day rainfall totals

 

NYC Weekend Weather – Sept 25, 2015

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Missed a couple updates the last week or so. The weather has been fairly uneventful during this stretch, with the second week of September featuring much above temperatures, while this past week has been more seasonable with respect to temperatures. This weekend, the pleasant, fall-like weather continues, with Saturday being the better half of the weekend.

Rest of today – high clouds have decreased in coverage somewhat since earlier this morning, but with an area of low pressure off the Southeastern US edging northward, cloud coverage may increase again later today. There’s also an onshore flow pattern with wind coming from the northeast, which will keep high temperatures suppressed in the low-70s.

Saturday – Canadian high pressure builds north of us, keeping the area of disturbed weather that’s moving northward from the Southeast at bay. This should result in a mostly sunny day. However, with the high pressure center to the north, onshore winds will continue from the northeast, leading to high temperatures again only in the low-70s.

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Sunday – the high pressure above will move southeast offshore of New England by the end of the day Sunday. With the high out of the way, the low pressure to its south will be able to develop again. This should yield a mostly cloudy day with the possibility for rain later in the evening hours. High temperatures remain on the cool side in the low-70s.

Monday – the chance for rain increases Monday with the high pressure completely out of the picture and low pressure moving in. This rain is much needed as a moderate drought persists in the NYC region (in particular Long Island). High temperatures will be warmer with winds from the southwest, temperatures may approach 80.gfs_namer_066_1000_850_thick

Regional Drought Worsens

The tradeoff for the long stretch of dry and pleasant weather is that moderate drought conditions have returned to areas which had been close to being drought-free last month. Moderate drought has redeveloped over much of the NYC metro area, while a persistent drought has continued to affect eastern Long Island. In fact, since August, the percentage of New York State affected by moderate drought has more than doubled.

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NYC Weather Update – Sept 14, 2015

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This is going to be an uneventful week in terms of weather. High pressure dominates through out the period, leading to dry, sunny conditions every day, with the only variation being a warming trend after Tuesday.

Rest of today – gorgeous, fall-like day with high temperatures only topping out in the low-mid 70s. A breezy west wind will make it feel even more like autumn.

Tuesday – warmer, with high temperatures in the low-80s under sunny skies.

Wednesday – warmer still with high temperatures in the mid-80s.

Thursday – another picture perfect day with plenty of sun and high temperatures in the low-mid 80s.9jhwbg_conus

NYC Labor Day Weekend Weather – Sept 3, 2015

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The holiday weekend opens up with a break in the heat, but the relief doesn’t last long before the heat gets turned back on in time for Labor Day itself. We get a chance for a few scattered thunderstorms overnight tonight. Otherwise, dry conditions prevail over the medium to long term.

Rest of today – hot and humid with highs in the low-90s under hazy and cloudy skies.

Friday – a cold front forecast to pass through the area from the north tonight could touch off only a few scattered thunderstorms, since conditions are unfavorable for widespread coverage. The day starts off overcast but as cooler, relatively drier air moves in behind the cold front, skies should begin to clear from east to west. High temperatures will be significantly cooler in the low-80s.

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Saturday – the break in the heat gives us probably the best day of the weekend with comfortable high temperatures in the low-80s and lower humidity along with plenty of sun. This is due to high pressure building over the area.

Sunday – as the high pressure moves offshore and southeast, it allows a warmer, more humid tropical airmass back into the region, heralding a return to very similar weather conditions as what we’ve experienced this week. Highs will climb back up into the upper-80s under sunny skies.

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Labor Day (Monday) – the heat and humidity persists, giving the Caribbean Day Parade an appropriately tropical feel. Temperatures should again reach into the upper-80s with mostly sunny skies.

NYC Weather Update – Aug 31, 2015

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A heat wave is on for the end of August, and will persist into the beginning of September. A hot, humid tropical airmass will be firmly in control through out the early and mid-week period before we get some heat relief late in the week. The hot temperatures and a lack of widespread precipitation may allow drought to redevelop in some parts of the region, and worsen over Long Island.

Rest of today – possibly the hottest day of the week, with temperatures in the low-mid 90s inland despite some cloud cover and uncomfortable humidity levels.

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Tuesday – a weak backdoor cold front pushes through overnight, although no precipitation is anticipated due to insufficient instability. Tomorrow should see high temperatures in the lower 90s again under sunnier skies.

Wednesday – the heat wave continues with temperatures yet again expected to top out in the low-mid 90s with sunny skies. There could be a few isolated pop-up showers/thunderstorms late in the day with very limited coverage.

Thursday – expected to be the last day of the heat wave, sunny with high temperatures at or above 90.

NYC Weekend Weather – Aug 27, 2015

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We have a simply splendid weekend on tap. Temperatures will be on the upward trend through the end of this week and into the weekend. The warm trend will continue into the beginning of next week, along with a return of more humid, dog days of summer type weather. Keeping an eye on the tropics, a great deal of uncertainty surrounds the future of Tropical Storm Erika, which could effect the U.S. East Coast in the long term.

Rest of today – beautiful, sunny skies with high temperatures in the low-80s. High pressure to the west is firmly in control, delivering this pleasant, seasonable weather.

Friday – almost a carbon copy of today, high temperatures in the low-80s with even fewer clouds as the high pressure center will be parked right over us.

Saturday – as the high pressure from the end of the week moves offshore and weakens, a subtropical high pressure center begins to take to control. This setup favors a warmer, more humid regime. Winds will shift to the southwest and temperatures will begin to climb into the mid-upper 80s.

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Sunday – a longer term trend of warm and humid weather, typical of late summer, will continue Sunday. Temperatures will again be in the upper-80s. This trend looks to continue well into next week.

Tropical Storm Erika

A tropical wave that moved offshore of West Africa late last week has tracked across the Atlantic, strengthening along the way to become the fifth named storm of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane season. Tropical Storm Erika, like its predecessor Danny, is having trouble maintaining its strength due to the influence of dry air and hostile northwesterly wind shear. Due to this shear, Erika’s center of circulation is actually still somewhat exposed (see below), and displaced away from its area of heaviest thunderstorms, which is concentrated in the southeastern quadrant of the storm.

The long term prospects for the storm are highly uncertain due to a number of factors. Erika looks to be tracking over Puerto Rico and may interact with Hispaniola (bringing much needed rain), which would significantly weaken the already feeble storm. This could lead to it dissipating entirely. However, should the storm make it past this area of high wind shear and possible land interaction, it’ll end up in the very warm waters around the Bahamas. This would provide the fuel for it to intensify quickly into a hurricane which could then threaten Florida and the East Coast. Definitely worth keeping an eye on.

Satellite image of Erika, with exposed center of circulation circled in red
Satellite image of Erika, with exposed center of circulation circled in red

NYC Weather Update – Aug 23, 2015

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A slow moving cold front brings an unsettled start to the week. Ahead of this cold front, temperatures will rise along with humidity, leading to a late-summer feel. Once this frontal boundary passes, high pressure to the west will allow for a cooler, drier Canadian airmass to enter the region, leading to more seasonable temperatures along with sunny skies.

Rest of today – a mix of sun and clouds continues with a small chance of some rain, with temperatures topping out around average in the low-80s.

Monday – as a cold front approaches from the west, humidity and temperatures will rise along with a south wind. There is some small chance for thunderstorms, especially west of the Hudson. Otherwise, expect a mix of sun and clouds with temperatures in the mid-80s.

Tuesday – with the cold front lingering in our vicinity, a small chance for showers and thunderstorms continues, along with warm and humid temperatures in the mid-upper 80s.

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Wednesday – the cold front finally pushes through Tuesday, and gives way to high pressure building in from the west on Wednesday. This will lead to comfortable temperatures in the low-80s with sunny skies.

Thursday – similar conditions to Wednesday, with sunny skies and a pleasant, comfortable high in the low-80s.

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A Note on the Tropics

We’re about to enter the most active period of the Atlantic hurricane season, and things have definitely picked up in the tropics. A series of monsoonal tropical waves are moving off of the cost of West Africa, giving rise to the potential for a couple of Cape Verde type tropical cyclones. This conveyor belt of tropical waves has already spawned this season’s first hurricane, Danny, which peaked as a major hurricane with winds of 115mph (Category 3) at the end of last week. Danny has weakened considerably, but could still bring some much needed rain to Hispaniola and Puerto Rico in the next couple days. Meanwhile, another tropical wave following on Danny’s footsteps could become Tropical Storm Erika in the coming days. Neither of these storms poses any immediate threat to the United States for the time being.

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NYC Weekend Weather – Aug 20, 2015

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Unsettled weather will be a trend for the end of this week and into the weekend as a cold front pushes through the region. Friday is shaping up to be the worst day with heavy rain with a risk for flash flooding. Conditions improve somewhat Saturday and Sunday, although a chance for showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out either day.

Rest of today – slight chance of showers or thunderstorms persists through this afternoon, though the best chances remain west of the Hudson, as was the case yesterday. We’ve hit a humid highin the mid-80s with a mix of sun and clouds above.

Friday – a cold front will be pushing through during the course of the day Friday. As the frontal boundary approaches overnight and into the early morning hours Friday, a slow moving band of heavy rain is expected to form and track from north to south across the area. It appears likely that the heaviest rain will fall in a narrow band during the early morning hours, and that things may already be drying out by the AM rush. High temperatures will be cooler than average with the cloud cover and rain, near 80.

Satellite image of the storm that will be bringing us some heavy rain Friday
Satellite image of the storm that will be bringing us some heavy rain Friday
High resolution rapid refresh simulated radar for 3AM EDT Friday
High resolution rapid refresh simulated radar for 3AM EDT Friday

A chance for showers and thunderstorms continues through Friday. By the end of the day, some areas could pick up between 1-2″ of rain, raising the risk of some flash flooding.

Saturday – although high pressure will be building once the cold front passes on Friday, a chance of showers and thunderstorms continues on the backside of this front. Temperatures will again be below normal with mostly cloudy skies and a high in the low-80s.

 

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Sunday – showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out for Sunday, which will end up being nearly identical to Saturday in sensible weather with high temperatures in the low-80s and mostly cloudy skies.