Category Archives: NYC

NYC Weather Update – May 11, 2015

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This week will be a tale of two airmasses, starting with a warm, moist, maritime tropical one, and transitioning to a more seasonable, cool, dry, continental polar airmass (don’t be alarmed, polar refers to the origin of this airmass, not necessarily the temperatures, although some light frost might occur later this week far inland). In terms of sensible weather, you will notice a marked change between warm, humid, summer-like weather Monday and Tuesday, and cool, windy, and crisp spring-like conditions to end the week.

Rest of today – basically a repeat of Sunday, high temperatures topping out in the low-80s. There is a very slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over the inland areas west of NYC where some instability might develop from daytime heating. South-facing shores will be noticeably cooler and cloudier due to an onshore wind from the south off the ocean.

Tuesday – some fog and clouds early, then mostly cloudy with a chance for rain and thunderstorms in the afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. High temperatures remain much above normal in the low-mid 80s.

Wednesday – the aforementioned cold front makes its passage, and brings in its wake a return to more seasonable weather. Average temperatures for this time of year are only around 65ºF, and that’s just about where we will end up on Wednesday under mostly sunny skies. There will be a noticeable wind from the northwest as well, making it feel extra crisp.noaad3

Thursday – sunny and dry, with a slight rebound in temperatures into the upper-60s.

NYC Weekend Weather – May 8, 2015

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Another splendid weekend is in store for us with warm temperatures in the upper-70s and near 80. Subtropical Storm Ana marks the first named storm of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season. It is not expected to bring us any direct impacts, however, it could bring moisture our way that could supplement a storm system forecast to pass through early next week.

Rest of today – early fog has burned off, skies have cleared, and temperatures should top out near 80. We have been under the persistent influence of a high pressure center that has been responsible for pumping in this warm, moist air from the south.

Saturday – clouds and sun, with sunny breaks more likely to appear near the coast in the afternoon. High temperatures should be a bit cooler in the mid-70s with the influence of clouds, however, any sunny breaks could easily shoot temperatures up a few degrees.

Sunday – once again, Sunday comes through as the best day of the weekend, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the low-80s.USA_East

Monday – clouds for the most part as a frontal boundary approaches from our north and west. High temperatures will still be quite mild with the influence of high pressure bringing southerly winds, expecting a high again near 80. Some chance for afternoon thunderstorms to develop as that frontal boundary nears.

Tuesday – probably our best shot at getting measurable rainfall as the aforementioned front passes through. Some left over moisture from Ana could work its way into this setup. Ahead of the front, temperatures should still rise into the upper-70s. It’ll be noticeably cooler for the second half of the week.

 

Subtropical Storm Ana

We have our first named storm of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season which doesn’t officially begin until June 1st. Subtropical Storm Ana developed out of a weak tropical disturbance off of Florida. This just goes to show, a tropical cyclone can form under the right conditions at any time of the year.

Visible satellite loop of Subtropical Storm Ana this morning - Geostationary Satellite Server
Visible satellite loop of Subtropical Storm Ana this morning – Geostationary Satellite Server

Subtropical Storm Ana fortunately does not have much time to organize and intensify before it makes landfall on the coast of the Carolinas. This should limit any serious damage, however, these areas will likely experience prolonged high winds, torrential rain, and coastal flooding.

Global Forecast System ensemble forecast tracks for Ana
Global Forecast System ensemble forecast tracks for Ana

NYC Weather Update – May 6, 2015

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A downright summer-like stretch of weather that started this week will get mirrored again towards the end of this week and going into next week. After clearing out clouds today, the remainder of this week should see dry and sunnier weather with highs in the mid-upper 70s. This weekend, we are looking at the possibility of temperatures near 80, nearly 15º above normal. We also have what could turn into the 2015 season’s first tropical depression/storm churning up off the coast of Florida now.

Rest of today – a very slow-moving, largely stationary front pushed through last night, but is still sitting in our vicinity. Along this front, remnants of more organized convective activity will be able to slide east during this afternoon and evening. While the chances are not high, there could still be an occasional shower during the latter half of today, high temperatures will be somewhat subdued around 70 with the clouds in place.

Thursday – clouds will clear out tomorrow and we should have a sunny day with temperatures in the mid-70s.

Friday – a repeat of Thursday, with mostly sunny skies and highs again in the mid-70s.

Saturday – increasing cloud cover, but should still be a pleasant day with temperatures in the upper 70s.

Sandwiched between rain to our south and to our west, but our weather should still remain dry this weekend.
Sandwiched between rain to our south and to our west, but our weather should still remain dry this weekend.

Sunday – warm and pleasant with a high near 80.

610temp.new
Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for next week – still looks like we’ll be getting warmer than normal temps

First Tropical System of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season?

As I write this, a low pressure system is building up steadily off the east coast of Florida. The National Hurricane Center puts the odds of this system organizing sufficiently to become the first named tropical depression, subtropical, or tropical storm of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Even if this storm does become the first named tropical system, it is unlikely to do much damage as it will have very little time over open water to gain strength before it is forecast to make landfall over the Carolinas later. The most noticeable impact from this storm would be the rain it generates.

GOES143020151262rinLi

NYC Weekend Weather – Apr 30, 2015

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This week ends with clouds and some small chance of rain, but we’re in for a real sweet stretch of pleasant conditions and warmer than average temperatures from Sunday into early next week. In fact, we could be hitting 80 by Tuesday ahead of a cold front that could bring some thunderstorms with it, before we cool back down into the low-70s, which is still above normal.

Friday – due to the influence of a weak area of low pressure to our south, we will be seeing generally cloudy skies, with some very slight chance for scattered showers in the southernmost portions of the region. Temperatures will be moderate by northeast winds circulating counterclockwise around the low pressure to our south, yielding high temperatures in the upper 50s to near 60, just a few degrees below normal.

Saturday – as the aforementioned low pressure system slides off to the east over the Atlantic, clouds should gradually decrease. Temperatures will also rebound somewhat to around normal with a high in the mid-60s. However, there could be just enough instability in the atmosphere to spark a couple scattered showers or thunderstorms.

 

gfs_namer_081_1000_850_thickSunday – by this time, an area of high pressure will have developed over the Carolinas. This setup will favor the influx of a warm airmass from the Gulf of Mexico. Skies will clear, and temperatures will be noticeably warmer in the low 70s.

Monday – another gorgeous day to start the week, with sunny skies and high temperatures in the mid-70s (10º above normal). Don’t say I told you so, but if there were a day to skip work, this would be it.

Climate Prediction Center's 6-10 forecast for temperature. Our odds are very good for getting warmer than normal temperatures.
Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 forecast for temperature. Our odds are very good for getting warmer than normal temperatures.

Tuesday – although it will be even warmer Tuesday than it will be Monday, with highs possibly topping 80, it won’t be quite as pleasant since clouds will be building up ahead of a cold front that will bring our next chance at rain.

NYC Weather Update – Apr 27, 2015

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After a few winter-like nights last week, things are back on the mend in terms of temperature this week. Wednesday should be the best day of the week, with mild temperatures in the upper-60s and sunny skies. Wednesday will be bookended by the rest of the week, which won’t be quite as pleasant. But, it won’t be as cold as it has been the last week.

Rest of Today – skies will be variably cloudy during the rest of the afternoon, with a chance for rain showers. This is due to the influence of a low pressure system in the Gulf of Maine that is inducing some instability here, as well as allowing a cool, moist, Canadian maritime airmass to enter the area.

gfs_namer_015_1000_850_thick

 

Tuesday – slightly better conditions than today with that low pressure exiting over the Atlantic. Skies should be mostly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-60s.

Wednesday – highlight of the week, featuring sunny skies and mild temperatures near 70.

Thursday – clouds return and temperatures fall back into the lower 60s in response to an approaching low pressure system from the Carolinas.

gfs_namer_072_1000_850_thick

NYC Weekend Weather – Apr 2, 2015

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We’re finally getting a run at some spring-like weather with highs above normal to end the work week. We’ll get some of those April showers that we’re hoping will lead to a fantastic display of spring flowers later this month and May. A cold front passing through Saturday will knock temperatures back a notch, and then we enter into a period of active weather dictated by a stalled frontal boundary the first half of next week.

Today – warm and breezy, with a high near or just over 60. Clouds increasing late, as a warm front approaches from the south. A chance of showers develops overnight as this warm front continues moving towards us.

 

Friday – an even warmer day on tap, with that aforementioned warm front having passed through. We’ll be in the warm sector until later when a cold front moves through. High temperatures, despite rain and clouds, should still be able to top out in the lower 60s.

gfs_namer_015_1000_850_thick

Saturday – with the cold front passing through, temperatures will drop on Saturday, back to about normal in the lower 50s. Partly sunny skies will slowly give way to more clear conditions.

Sunday – Sunday through Wednesday will be rather interesting. A frontal boundary is expected to push through Sunday, however, it is then expected to stall in our vicinity for a few days. As waves of low pressure ride along this stalled frontal boundary, the chance for showers persists through Wednesday.

A nice start to next week with above average high temperatures Monday and Tuesday in the mid-upper 50s along with those chances for rain.

NYC Weekend Weather – Mar 27, 2015

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We got a taste of what high temperatures should be like for this time of year Wednesday and Thursday, but the cold front that has since moved through will set the stage for a return to below normal temperatures to start the weekend. With a low pressure center well to our east possibly spawning an inverted trough, there is some possibility for light rain/snow mix overnight Friday and into Saturday. Temperatures rebound Sunday and we go into next week with about normal temperatures right around 50.

Rest of today – a noticeably colder night on tap with northwesterly winds in the wake of that aforementioned cold front allowing for low temperatures to dip to about freezing. Any lingering precipitation would manifest itself as rain/snow mix, with points further east having a higher chance of seeing wet snow.

Saturday – a much colder than average day, with high temperatures only hitting the mid-upper 30s, nearly 15 degrees below normal. Cloudy, windy, and raw, with snow showers possible early (accumulation unlikely), and rain showers later.

We are right on the western fringe of a precipitation associated with that low pressure center off of southern Nova Scotia.
We are right on the western fringe of a precipitation associated with that low pressure center off of southern Nova Scotia.

Sunday – things clear up nicely as that low pressure keeps pulling off to the east. Temperatures rebound a bit into the low 40s, which is still well below average.

Monday – a continued warmup ahead of a dry cold front, with high temperatures topping out around 50 under increasingly cloudy skies.

Tuesday – a pleasant, seasonable day with high temperatures in the low 50s and mostly sunny skies as high pressure comes into control.

The next chance at precipitation comes Tuesday night into Wednesday with a fast moving clipper system.

Warmer air swinging around a high pressure area to our south.
Warmer air swinging around a high pressure area to our south.

NYC Weather Update – Mar 22, 2015

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This upcoming week will feature some big swings in temperature, with high temperatures increasing steadily up through Thursday, when highs could 60 before a cold front swings through. Following the passage of this cold front, we dip back into the mid-40s and continue cooling into the lower-40s this weekend. The temperature trend in the medium term remains below normal, potentially well below normal even through the first week of April, as a series of cold fronts continue to allow cold Canadian air to enter the area.

Monday – an area of high pressure will yield a sparkling sunny day, but will also permit cold, Arctic air back into the region. Northwest winds combined with noticeably cold overnight lows will produce uncomfortably cold conditions. High temperatures Monday may barely break freezing. It’ll be one of the coldest day we’ve had this month.

Tuesday – also gets off to a chilly start, but high temperatures are expected to push up to around 40 (which is more than 10ºF colder than normal).

Wednesday – a clear start, but clouds will be building ahead of a warm front that will pass over the region late Wednesday. Temperatures will steadily climb to near 50, especially after the warm front passes. There will be a slight chance for rain later Wednesday in conjunction with this frontal passage.

Thursday – highs will near if not break 60, however, it is anticipated to be a overcast day with periods of rain possible throughout the day. After the warm front passes Wednesday, we’ll be firmly within the warm sector, between the warm front to our east and the approaching cold front from the west. This setup favors the influx of warm, moist air from the Gulf riding in on persistent southwesterly winds, before a dramatic shift following the cold front passing, with winds becoming west-northwest and a drop in temperatures.9khwbg_conus

 

Friday – high temperatures drop back in to the mid-40s, as clouds break apart and colder, dry air takes hold behind the cold front.

Below Normal Start to April

It’s close to a sure bet (70% probability) that we’ll end the month of March and start April with below normal temperatures, taking a look at the Climate Prediction Centers forecasts below. I know we’re all sick of this seemingly endless winter, but we’re still not out of the woods in terms of temperatures.

6-10 temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center
6-10 temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center
8-14 temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center
8-14 temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center

 

NYC Weather Update – Mar 18, 2015

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Just when we thought winter was on its last legs, and spring was on its way. Unfortunately, as the Climate Prediction Center forecast a couple weeks ago, a cool down is in the cards to end the month of March. In fact, it will get so cold that snow could accumulate Friday into Friday night. After a brief warmup, another shot of colder than normal air will return to grip the area to end off the month.

Thursday –  a below normal, but dry day with plenty of sun and high near 40.

Friday – (ironically, first day of astronomical spring) a coastal low moving offshore of the Carolinas will then track north. Enough cold air will be in place Friday, along with a persistent northerly flow with counterclockwise circulation around the low pressure center that snow is looking likely during the course of the day. Current forecast snow accumulations are on the light side, no more than 3-4″. If temperatures are even a few degrees warmer than currently forecast, we could get away with little accumulation.

Friday's storm
Friday’s storm

Saturday – things clear up quickly on Saturday with high temperatures back near normal in the mid-upper 40s.

Sunday – a dry cold front moves through Sunday, leading to a drop in temperatures to below normal in the upper 30s.

Cool Off Coming Up

The climate prediction center continues to point to cooler than normal temperatures for the last two weeks of March. One can only hope that the temperatures are not so cold as to allow for more snow, but I wouldn’t rule this possibility entirely out given some of the longer term forecast models.

6-10 temperature outlook
6-10 temperature outlook
8-14 day temperature outlook
8-14 day temperature outlook

NYC Weekend Weather – Mar 13, 2015

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The weekend gets off to a wet start, with rain beginning overnight and Saturday a complete washout. By Sunday, conditions will improve and there will be a slight warmup to start the week, before we return to below normal temperatures by mid-week next week.

Rest of Today – increasing clouds will be a precursor for rain later in the overnight hours. If you plan on being out past midnight (really more like 2AM), grab an umbrella just in case. The bulk of the rain doesn’t look to begin until after 2AM, however, once it starts, it will be essentially continuous until Saturday evening. Prior to the passage of a warm front late overnight into Saturday morning, overnight lows may be cold enough to support some mixing of sleet for a brief period in the city. There is actually a freezing rain advisory for northern areas, where a colder thermal profile could support some freezing rain.

Simulated radar image for 3AM EST, Saturday, Mar 14, 2015. High Resolution Rapid Refresh model.
Simulated radar image for 3AM EST, Saturday, Mar 14, 2015. High Resolution Rapid Refresh model.

Saturday – it will actually be a mild day on Saturday subsequent to the passage of the warm front mentioned above. Any freezing rain/sleet that occurs early in the morning will quickly transition to rain, increasing in intensity during the morning. High temperatures near 50, combined with drenching rain, should be enough to finally washout any remaining snowpack near the city (although places like Long Island that got more snow this season will probably see it persist).

Sunday – there could be a couple remaining sprinkles Sunday morning, but overall, this should be a dry day, partly sunny, and breezy day. High temperatures will be near normal around the mid-40s.

Monday – it’ll be a nice day Monday with a warm front passing through, and high temperatures in the normal range near 50.

Tuesday – another day of normal temperatures near 50. A cold front pass through by Wednesday, which will lead to a cooler than normal day.