Category Archives: Rain

NYC Weekend Weather – Aug 16, 2019

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A stationary front stalled out southeast of the city over the Mid-Atlantic will be the primary agent responsible for an extended period of humid, cloudy, and unstable weather over the weekend. As was the case last weekend, temperatures will be on an upward trend from the low-80s into the low-90s by the start of next week.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms particularly closer to higher terrain north and west of the city. High temperatures in the low-80s. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Saturday

Saturday – more clouds than sun with the stationary front just south of the area. Continued onshore easterly flow behind north of this stationary front will keep things cooler and humid. High temperatures in the low-80s. Chance for showers and thunderstorms to develop again in the afternoon hours with an unstable airmass (due to the high moisture content caused by the onshore flow) as heating increases. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

Sunday – temperatures begin to warm up into the upper-80s as winds shift towards the south. The stationary front attempts to move north as a warm front but high pressure is forecast to develop west of us and block this northwards advance. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are again possible in the afternoon hours. Overnight lows in the mid-70s.

GFS model 2 meter above ground level temperature, 10 meter above ground level wind forecast for 2PM Monday

Monday – with winds shifting to towards the southwest, much warmer air will advect into the region. High temperatures expected to top out in the low-90s with overnight lows in the upper-70s. Mostly sunny skies forecast with the high pressure building.

NYC Weather Update – Aug 11, 2019

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Unsettled weather takes hold during the mid-week period as a couple prefrontal disturbances affect the area. The focus for heavier rain will be later Wednesday as a cold front approaches. Behind this cold front, conditions should improve and result in a pleasant, dry weekend.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy with a chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms later in the day as a shortwave trough lingers around the area. Temperatures in the mid-80s. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Tuesday
Storm Prediction Center severe weather outlook for Tuesday

Tuesday – shaping up to be an eventful day in regards to weather. Temperatures should rise into the low-80s with overnight lows in the low-70s. During the day, a mesoscale convective system (organized large cluster of thunderstorms) will be approaching the area from the Ohio Valley. Forecast is uncertain in terms of where the frontal boundaries in the vicinity of this MCS eventually set up. Current thinking is that we end up south of a warm front earlier in the day that will serve as the initial focus for shower and thunderstorm activity. This activity should continue and increase in intensity as the frontal boundary starts shifting south and encounters warm, moist and unstable air. There is potential for all severe hazards including hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado.

Wednesday – mostly cloudy with shower chances diminishing later in the day . High temperatures in the low-80s and lows in the upper-60s.

Thursday – still a possibility for lingering showers but overall a better day with mostly cloudy skies and high temperatures in the low-80s with overnight lows in the upper-60s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Aug 9, 2019

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A couple stormy nights in the city the last couple days will give way to a superb weekend of mostly sunny skies and warm, but comfortable temperatures. High pressure will remain in control over the region’s weather going into next week. The next chance for significant precipitation won’t enter the picture until mid-week next week.

Rest of today – mostly sunny with high temperatures ranging 84-87°F. There is a slight chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm later this afternoon with a weak disturbance pivoting through at the upper-levels. Forecasters cite the lack of any significant convective inhibition so storms could pretty easily get going, however, moisture content isn’t all that great. Overnight lows should be mild in upper-60s.

HRRR model simulated radar for 4:45PM today

Saturday – with a cold front passing today, we’ll have cooler temperatures tomorrow, high temperatures reaching only into the low-80s under mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows cooling into the mid-60s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Saturday

Sunday – just another beautiful day with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the low-80s. Overnight lows starting to warm back up into the upper-60s.

Monday – temperatures will warm back up as the high pressure center shifts east, and we get the warmer southerly, and westerly return flow. We should see high temperatures in upper-80s and overnight lows in the low-70s.

NYC Weather Update – Aug 6, 2019

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Unsettled weather takes hold during the mid-week period as a couple prefrontal disturbances affect the area. The focus for heavier rain will be later Wednesday as a cold front approaches. Behind this cold front, conditions should improve and result in a pleasant, dry weekend.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy with a chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms later in the day as a shortwave trough lingers around the area. Temperatures in the mid-80s. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Wednesday

Wednesday – mostly cloudy with high temperatures in the mid-80s. Heavy rain possible especially later in the day with a cold front approaching. With a moist air mass in place, some thunderstorms that pop up could produce heavy downpours and localized flooding. Rain could continue overnight in more isolated form. Lows in the low-70s.

Thursday – brief subsidence behind the cold front that passes through Thursday should result in calmer weather and warmer temperatures with high temperatures in the upper-80s. Before that happens though, rain and thunderstorms can still pop up. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

Climate Prediction Center 6-10 temperature outlook valid Aug 11 – Aug 15 (this Sunday into next week)

Friday – cooler, sunny, with high temperatures in the low-80s. Overnight lows cooling into the upper-60s as Canadian high pressure begins to build.

NYC Weather Update – Jul 8, 2019

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As with last week, high pressure will play a big role in sensible weather this week. Rain chances are going to be limited to later this week when a frontal system moves across the area. Temperatures will be warm to start in the upper-80s then cool off later in the week back into the mid-80s.

Rest of today – early showers move through then we’ll see gradual clearing. Temperatures in the low-80s. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Tuesday

Tuesday – much warmer with temperatures in the upper-80s, and lots of sun with high pressure building and taking over. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

Wednesday – continued warmth with highs again in the upper-80s and mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

GFS model output for 1000-500 mb thickness, surface pressure, and precipitation valid for Thursday 8PM

Thursday – clouds increasing late with high temperatures in the mid-80s. Chance for showers and thunderstorms late and going into the overnight hours. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jul 5, 2019

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This weekend starts off with warm temperatures, and then will get punctuated by the passage of a cold front bringing showers and thunderstorms later tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours. Behind this front, a cooler, drier Canadian air mass moves in with high pressure building to start next week.

Rest of today – warm, with mostly cloudy skies and high temperatures in the upper-80s. Overnight lows in the mid-70s. Slight chance for showers and thunderstorms going into Saturday.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Saturday

Saturday – mostly cloudy with chances for showers and thunderstorms peaking in the late afternoon and early evening hours. High temperatures in the upper-80s. Shower and thunderstorm chances will peak late with instability and lift maximized from daytime heating and an approaching. Some of these storms could be strong in nature and with plenty of moisture available, these could bring heavy downpours. Overnight lows in the mid-70s.

Sunday – generally improving conditions with decreasing clouds and high temperatures in the mid-80s. Some showers still possible early. Overnight lows into Monday in the low-70s.

GFS Model for 1000-500 mb thickness, surface pressure, and precipitation at 2AM Monday

Monday – a nice day with high temperatures in the low-mid 80s and sunny skies as high pressure takes control. Overnight lows in the upper-60s.

NYC Weather Update – Jul 1, 2019

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Weather this week will mostly be governed by the presence of high pressure, with the exception of a cold front sweeping through Tuesday night into Wednesday that could bring some showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain warm in the upper-80s and low-90s during this time. July 4th festivities look to be safe from any rain at this time.

Rest of today – sunny skies with high temperatures in the mid-80s. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Tuesday

Tuesday – mostly sunny with high temperatures in the upper-80s, close to 90°F. Chance of showers and thunderstorms later in the day as a cold front approaches from the north. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

Wednesday – high pressure starts building again with mostly sunny skies expected. High temperatures in the upper-80s with overnight lows in the low-70s.

Climate Prediction Center forecast for temperature trends between Jul 6-10, showing possibility for above average warmth to continue into the weekend.

Thursday (Independence Day) – another day of slightly above average warmth with high temperatures forecast in the upper-80s. Increasing clouds due to the approach of a weakening warm front from the southwest. Overnight lows in the low-70s, rain should hold off for fireworks viewing.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jun 28, 2019

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We start the weekend with hot temperatures but some showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday should cool things off back to near-normal warmth. In general, there’s going to be enough sun this weekend to enjoy some outdoor activities. Just be prepared for a quick moving afternoon thunderstorm. Saturday’s storms could edge into the severe range.

Rest of today – hot, sunny, with high temperatures ranging in the upper-80s to low-90s. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

  • Storm Prediction Center convective outlook for Saturday, showing slight risk for severe thunderstorms in NYC
  • Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Saturday

Saturday – partly sunny with increasing clouds later in the day. Showers and thunderstorms possible especially in the afternoon and early evening hours when solar heating is maximized and a cold front/shortwave trough moves through the area. There is some potential for the storms to reach severe limits, with the primary threat being damaging winds. High temperatures near 90°F, with overnight lows in the low-70s.

Sunday – cooler, with high temperatures in the mid-80s but mostly sunny skies. There’s also a chance for showers and thunderstorms with a second cold front pushing through during the day, but coverage will be more scattered and storms are expected to be weaker if they form due to lack of upper-air support and less favorable conditions for instability. Overnight lows noticeably cooler, in the mid-60s.

GFS model output for 1000-500 mb thickness, surface pressure, precipitation for 8AM Monday

Monday – a gem of a day with mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the low-80s. Overnight lows back into the upper-60s.

NYC Weather Update – Jun 25, 2019

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Earlier showers and thunderstorms today presage the passage of a warm front over the area. Behind this, high pressure begins to build tomorrow and persists through the end of the week. Temperatures during this stretch are likely to consistently reach into the upper-80s and low-90s in the city. As if on cue, the first full week of summer this year may also see a possible heat wave.

Rest of today – clouds gradually diminishing towards the evening. A few scattered showers still possible with a cold front forecast to move through later. High temperatures in the low-80s with cloud cover in place. Overnight lows will be mild in the low-70s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Wednesday

Wednesday – relatively warm start to the day allows temperatures to climb into the low-90s in the city with the urban heat island effect. Mostly sunny skies with high pressure now in control. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

Thursday – high temperatures again into the low-90s with lots of sun. Luckily, the position of this particular high pressure doesn’t translate to the influx of a humid airmass, so the overall feel of these temperatures won’t be as muggy. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

GFS 850 mb temperature anomalies for 2PM Thursday. Warmer than normal 850 mb temperatures can be a good indicator of hot surface temperatures.

Friday – yet another day of 90°F+ temperatures possible, which would mean an official heatwave. Still mostly sunny with high pressure remaining in control over sensible weather. Overnight lows continuing to be mild, in the mid-70s. Great beach weather!

NYC Weekend Weather – Jun 21, 2019

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Lingering showers and cloudiness should clear the area later today. Summer officially starts today and a welcome pattern change will coincide with this, giving us excellent weather this weekend. A break from the rain with lots of sunshine is in store. Upper level ridging should block any inclement weather from hitting until a weak storm system passing late Monday into Tuesday.

Rest of today – skies gradually clearing by late afternoon. High temperatures moderated by cloud cover, rising to the upper-70s. Overnight lows in the low-60s. Air mass will be drying out behind a cold front passing today.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Saturday

Saturday – sunny with highs in the low-80s. High pressure building over Ontario and Canada should keep things nice and calm. Overnight lows in the mid-60s.

Sunday – another sunny day with highs in the low-80s. Overnight lows in the mid-60s.

GFS model output of 500 mb heights and vertical vorticity valid for 8PM Monday

Monday – mostly sunny with increasing clouds late and high temperatures in the low-80s. Overnight lows in the upper-60s with chances for rain.