Category Archives: Rain

NYC Weather Update, Thanksgiving – Nov 20, 2017

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The weather looks to cooperate most of Thanksgiving week, aside from Tuesday night into Wednesday with a chance of rain as a cold front passes through. Travel impacts should be minimal. Thanksgiving Day itself should be pleasant, though on the cool side with below average temperatures.

Rest of today – earlier this morning, some areas in and around the city got the first few snowflakes of the season. There won’t be any more flurries today, but temperatures will be below normal with a stiff wind blowing from the west at 20 mph and gusts in the 30 mph range. Highs will probably only reach into the upper-40s as a result, even though we do anticipate skies clearing up in the afternoon.

Tuesday – winds turn to the southwest overnight into Tuesday as a high pressure center south of us today moves east, bringing us a shot of warm advection, and much warmer temperatures. Warmer than average highs in the upper-50s to near 60°F are forecast with sunny skies.

Wednesday – overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, rain chances increase as a cold front approaches the region. Rain showers may continue impacting the area into the AM rush. Once the cold front pushes through, winds shift back to the west and northwest, with gradual clearing conditions. High temperatures should be in the low-50s.

Thursday (Thanksgiving Day) – the passage of the cold front on Wednesday sets the stage for much cooler temperatures for the Thanksgiving Day Parade. Cold advection will bring temperatures into the mid-30s overnight, and temperatures at the start of the parade will probably only be in the upper-30s. Fortunately, there should be no other adverse weather impacts on this annual festivity. High temperatures should top out in the low-mid 40s with mostly sunny skies.

NYC Weekend Weather – Nov 17, 2017

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A cool Friday and Friday night yields to a rainy, though milder weekend. A return to largely below normal temperatures to start the week. Looking ahead into next week, weather conditions should be fair and without disruptions for the busy travel days around Thanksgiving.

Rest of today – sunny, cool and windy with high temperatures in the upper-40s. Northwest winds 15-20 mph with higher gusts though diminishing as the day progresses.

Saturday – increasing clouds as a warm front attached to a low pressure center over the Great Lakes approaches the area. Increasing clouds as winds shift to a warmer and wetter southerly direction. Chances for rain increasing through the day, with mostly cloudy skies otherwise and high temperatures in the upper-50s.

Sunday – rain chances are highest overnight from Saturday into Sunday. Low temperatures should be on the warm side near 50°F. Rain continues into Sunday morning prior to the passage of the cold front pictured above. Once that cold front pushes through, clouds should gradually break. High temperatures are anticipated to reach in the mid-50s again. However, on the back side of the cold front, we’ll see fairly strong winds returning from the northwest with a large pressure gradient. This will lead to temperatures dropping back into the 40s by the evening.

Monday – sunny skies but much cooler again with high temperatures in the mid-40s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Nov 10, 2017

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Get ready for record-breaking cold and a blast of deep winter tonight. The cold spell slowly abates over the course of the weekend, but even by Monday, high temperatures are still anticipated to be below normal for this time of year. There is a chance for precipitation on Sunday night with the passage of a weak disturbance.

Rest of today – we’ve already reached today’s daytime high of about 40°F and temperatures will be falling throughout the rest of the day. An arctic front is passing over us now, in its wake, strong cold advection (transport) is ongoing as a continental polar airmass from northern Canada dives down into the area. A high pressure center over Minnesota is also creating a fairly strong pressure gradient with a low pressure system in central Quebec. This will result in breezy conditions with winds from the northwest at around 25 mph and gusts over 40 mph. Wind chill values will fall from the 30s into the 20s.

Strong cold advection is ongoing behind the arctic front. Temperatures are dropping by as much as 2.5-3°F per hour in the Northeast.

Saturday (Veterans Day) – overnight lows going into Saturday are forecast to plummet to record-breaking levels in the low-20s. The high pressure pictured above will be moving closer to us, decreasing the pressure gradient and reducing the winds here. Temperatures should top out around 40°F with lots of sun. It will be a chilly, but sunny day for the Veterans Day Parade.

Sunday – temperatures continue to warm into the upper-40 with increasing clouds.

Monday – some uncertainty exists about the possibility of precipitation overnight into Monday. High temperatures will finally be approaching normal for this time of year with highs in the low-50s and mostly cloudy skies.

NYC Weather Update – Nov 6, 2017

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After a brief warm spell, we are looking at a full week ahead of average to below average temperatures. A distinct fall feel has come just as we ended Daylight Saving Time. The best chances for rain are at the beginning of the week.

Rest of today – high temperatures into the mid-60s ahead of an advancing cold front. This cold front will carry with it the chance for some showers later today. Mostly cloudy otherwise.

Tuesday – once the cold front passes us, winds will turn rather quickly northwest, bringing much cooler air into the region. High temperatures will likely be in the low-50s with partly sunny skies.

Wednesday – this frontal boundary from early in the week will stall out south of us. This will allow multiple shortwaves to ride up the frontal boundary, giving us a slight chance of rain overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. High temperatures will again be on the cool side, only in the low-50s with mostly cloudy skies.

Thrusday – a tad bit warmer, with a mix of clouds and sun and high temperatures in the mid-50s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Nov 3, 2017

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This weekend’s weather will be a tale of contrasting temperatures and airmasses. The week ends with warm temperatures more than 10°F above normal. A cold front sweeps through and fall returns for the weekend itself, but another warm up takes place leading into Monday. Also, Daylight Saving Time ends at 2AM Sunday.

Rest of today – increasing clouds for the day. Warm with high temperatures in the mid-70s. Yesterday, a warm front pushed through, putting us in the warm sector associated with a low pressure now over northeastern Quebec.

Saturday – quite a different feel tomorrow once this cold front below moves through the area. Winds will become onshore from the east, bring much cooler air. High temperatures are expected to top out only in the upper-50s with sunny skies (around normal for this time of year).

Sunday – there’s a chance of showers overnight Saturday into Sunday associated with the next storm system to impact the area. An advancing warm front is expected to bring light, stratiform rain ahead of it. Temperatures will be warmer, in the mid-60s with mostly cloudy skies.

Monday – the familiar pattern of warm front followed by cold front continues Monday. We’ll again be in the warm sector with temperatures peaking at about 70°F. Rain should accompany the passage of this cold front.

NYC Special Weather Update: Tropical Depression Eighteen – Oct 28, 2017

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The National Hurricane Center announced that Tropical Depression Eighteen has formed over the northwestern Caribbean Sea just south of Isla de Juventud in Cuba. The formation of TD Eighteen has implications on the forecast for Sunday’s storm as a complex scenario is set to unfold.

Impacts: forecasters are anticipating a high wind, and heavy rain event coming up. Storm total rainfall of 2-4″ and possibly higher could lead to urban and small stream flooding. The amount of rainfall over a short period of time has led our local forecast office to issue flash flood watches for much of the region. Winds will pick up as well, backing from the south to southeast, east, and eventually to north and northwest. Wind gusts could become a problem for local airports and for poor travel conditions in general. Thunderstorms are a possibility as well.

Timing: Winds are already increase today, and cloud cover will do so as well as the day progresses. Chances for rain will increase in the overnight hours, probably after 2-3AM. The strongest wind gusts will actually come on the back side of the storm going into Monday as it intensifies and the pressure gradient increases.

Discussion: a complicated set up is unfolding with a longwave trough (on the left) draping from the Great Lakes into the Gulf of Meixco interacting with a developing closed low over the Tennessee Valley, and TD Eighteen. TD Eighteen is likely to strengthen into a tropical storm, which would be named Phillippe if it did form. The effect of this will be to provide a conveyor of warm and moist air from the tropics up to our area. This will help feed the developing non-tropical low forming over the southeast. This low will become the primary rainmaker, and the tropical system (whether a depression or storm) will eventually merge with it. Plenty of instability to fuel a growing storm! The pressure gradient will tighten as this storm strengthens and departs eastward, and that will be the reason for a gusty start to the work week.

 

NYC Weekend Weather – Oct 27, 2017

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The weekend starts with beautiful, sunny, fall weather. We see a slight warm up but this will be accompanied with rounds of rain beginning overnight Sunday going into Monday. Temperatures return to normal levels to start the week.

Rest of today – sunny with high temperatures in the low-60s.

Saturday – sunny and slightly warmer with temperatures in the upper-70s. Robust southerly flow ahead of an advancing cold front associated with a weakening low pressure system will push warmer, and more moist air over the region.

Sunday – this southerly winds will set the stage for a wet and windy Sunday. As the cold front nears and lift is maximized, we could even get a shot at some thunderstorms. Winds should be in the 15-20 mph range with stronger gusts over 30 mph. Temperatures will remain in the upper-60s. We could pick up between 1-2 inches of rain.

Monday – a tropical system currently offshore of Nicaragua will likely get picked up by this long cold front mentioned above. As it moves north along the frontal boundary, it will provide a reinforcing shot of energy to the dissipating low. Rain could still be ongoing at the outset of the day as a result, though it should taper off fairly quickly as this storm system moves off east. Temperatures will be on the cool side, with winds shifting to the north behind this storm system. Highs only in the upper-50s.

NYC Weather Update – Oct 23, 2017

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The warm spell we’ve enjoyed over the last week and longer will finally come to a close mid-week this week. Before that, we will receive a round of much needed moderate to heavy rain in conjunction with the approach and passage of a frontal system. Behind this front, as winds shift to the northwest, temperatures will cool into a more seasonable range for this time of year.

Rest of today – mild, partly sunny with clouds increasing, high temperatures in the low-70s.

Tuesday – we’ll still be in the warm sector ahead of an advancing cold front. Temperatures remain mild in the low-70s, however, we should expect several rounds of moderate to heavy rain during the day. As the pressure gradient increases with proximity to an advancing cold front, stiff south winds in the 20 mph range with stronger gusts could occur. Rain continues and increases in intensity overnight. Windy conditions continue. Thunderstorms are possible with some of the strongest lift and convection close to the cold front. We could pick up 2-3 inches in places by the end of this event, as this long period of southerly winds will have ushered in a tropical airmass rich with moisture.

Wednesday – the cold front doesn’t actually push through until late Wednesday. Lingering showers could occur in the morning prior to the frontal passage. High temperatures should still be fairly mild, near 70°F.

Thursday – winds will shift to the north and west following the passage of this vigorous cold front. Behind the front, temperatuers will be about 10°F cooler, resulting in high temperatures topping out in the low-60s with mostly sunny skies.

 

NYC Weekend Weather – Oct 20, 2017

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High pressure continues to exert its influence over the region through the weekend and into the beginning of next week. Temperatures will be quite mild and about 10°F above normal for this time of year. Ideal viewing conditions exist for the Orionid meteor showers.

Rest of today – sunny and mild with highs in the low-mid 70s despite northwest winds.

Saturday – similar setup as today. Sunny with highs in the low-mid 70s. Winds shift to the south as high pressure moves east and offshore.

Thanks to this persistent area of high pressure over the eastern US, we’ve a long bout of sunny and dry weather that continues through the weekend.

Sunday – mild and mostly sunny with high temperatures again in the low-mid 70s.

Monday – increasing clouds and slightly warmer with highs in the mid-70s. We’ll be in the warm sector ahead of an advancing, slow-moving frontal boundary. This feature will bring our next and much needed chance at precipitation into Tuesday.

Orionid meteor showers
These will be peaking over the weekend. Look towards the constellation Orion during the overnight hours with best conditions at around 2AM. Astronomers are expecting a peak of 15-20 meteors per minute radiating from this constellation. The meteors are actually fragments of Halley’s comet, which approaches perihelion (closest pass to the sun) next in 2061. If you’re lucky enough to get away from light pollution, you won’t have any moonlight to contend with either. Sky conditions will be ideal this weekend.

NYC Weekend Weather – Oct 13, 2017

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This weekend brings a mixed bag of weather, with some chances for rain, but warm temperatures as well. A stark contrast in temperatures marks the beginning of next week with some of the coldest temperatures we’ve seen up to this point in the season.

Rest of today – partly sunny to mostly cloudy with seasonable highs in the mid-60s

Saturday – an inverted trough attached to a low pressure center well south of us rotates into the area and looks to remain stationary during the day. This could bring some scattered showers, however, this trough isn’t particularly strong and a washout isn’t anticipated. In fact, some sun could break through later in the day which could send temperatures higher than the forecast range in the mid-70s.

 

Sunday – temperatures continue pushing well above normal into the upper-70s and near 80°F. Warm air will be flowing in advance of a cold front that will drape across the country.

Monday – that cold front brings a chance of rain overnight into Monday and also ushers in much cooler air. High temperatures drop back into the low-60s. Overnight into Tuesday we might be seeing low temperatures in the upper-40s!