After a span of several weeks with minimal rainfall, we’re running into a week that will be defined by two low pressure systems and unsettled, rainy weather. Temperature will finally cool off from the summer-like warmth we’ve recently enjoyed to more seasonable, fall temperatures.
Rest of today – cloudy, periods of rain, some heavy at times. High temperatures in the mid-upper 70s. Breezy with winds 15-20 mph. Remnants of Nate are passing through the area today, bringing tropical moisture and rain along with a deepening pressure gradient and the windy conditions.
Tuesday – best day of the first half of this week, mostly sunny with temperatures in the low-80s in the wake of the storm system passing today.
Wednesday – a backdoor cold front pushes through overnight into Wednesday. Winds will shift to the easterly direction and onshore with high pressure to the north. The result will be much cooler temperatures in the upper-60s or just about 70°F, which is about normal for this time of year. There will also be a chance for rain and increasingly cloudy skies.
Thursday – similar feel to Wednesday with clouds, chances for rain, easterly winds, but cooler with temperatures in the mid-60s.
The first half of this long weekend will continue the warm summer feel we’ve had since mid-week. Some much needed rain arrives Sunday going into next week in conjunction with the anticipated remnants of Tropical Storm Nate. This does literally mean that it will rain on the Columbus Day parade.
Rest of today – mostly sunny. Warm with highs around 80°F.
Saturday – partly sunny, not a bad day though with high temperatures in the low-80s. The stationary front depicted above that’s sitting close to the city will push north of us as a warm front. This will open the door to an increasingly tropical feel with higher dew points and more moisture in the air.
Sunday – mostly cloudy. Rain chances increasing in the afternoon with thunderstorms possible. Rain that develops could be heavy with tropical moisture flowing into the area. Still warm, with temperatures in the low-80s. An advancing cold front will push up precipitation partially fueled by Tropical Storm Nate (which is anticipated to make landfall on the New Orleans/Mississippi coastal area this weekend. This precipitation will be moving in on our area well in advance of the actual core of the remnants of Nate.
Monday (Columbus Day) – rain and thunderstorms as the bulk of the remnants of Nate move into the area. Rain heavy at times. Cooler with highs dipping into the mid-70s. With Nate approaching to the southwest of us, we should see more steady rain and clouds, keeping temperatures suppressed.
Tropical Storm Nate
Tropical Storm Nate is expected to strengthen into a minimal hurricane after it crosses near or over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula this weekend and into the Gulf of Mexico. From that point, it’s expected to accelerate towards the Gulf Coast and make landfall in the vicinity of New Orleans, the Mississippi Delta and coastal Mississippi. Even though this storm will pale in comparison to Irma and Maria, it has already claimed 20 lives in Central America due to heavy rains and flooding.
Hurricane Maria will not be coming our way this week. The cold front that will be responsible for pushing Maria out to sea arrives late in the week and induces a return to fall weather. Until then, it will continue to look and feel like summer.
Rest of today – warm, sunny, high temperatures well into the mid and upper-80s
Tuesday – some patchy fog over night. Any fog should burn off early and high temperatures should reach in the low-80s with mostly sunny skies.
Wednesday – could see some more clouds, and possibly some rain along a frontal boundary passing through. High temperatures in the low-80s.
Thursday – clouds and sun with temperaturea around 80°F.
Hurricane Jose will be the primary weather maker for us in the NYC region during the beginning of the week. Tropical storm watches are up for almost the entire the Northeast coast, except for NYC itself. The storm is expected to continue weakening, and while landfall on the US mainland is not expected, there will still be plenty of impacts from the storm.
Monday – isolated chance of showers, primarily this morning. Highs in the mid-70s with cloudy skies.
Tuesday – showers likely from the bands of what will probably a low-end Hurricane Jose or high-end tropical storm. Due to the track of Jose, it will look and feel much like a Nor’easter, with steady winds from the northeast between 15-20 mph. High temperatures in the low-70s. These winds will peak overnight into Wednesday around 25 mph.
Wednesday – rain is still possible from the influence of Tropical Storm Jose. Temperatures in the mid-upper 70s. Winds from the north between 20-25 mph.
Thursday – much more pleasant as Jose moves away from us and continues to weaken. Mostly sunny with high temperatures in the upper-70s.
Hurricane Jose
Hurricane Jose has been exhibiting signs of weakening over the past few days. In this latest satellite image, you can see the center of circulation is exposed and the primary convective areas are well to the north. This is due to strong mid-level wind shear from the south. The storm is also about to leave the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. Both these factors should continue to lead to steady weakening.
As the storm weakens, it has expanded in size, so despite its center not being forecast to make landfall, it is still expected to bring significant coastal impacts (beach erosion, coastal flooding, high surf) along with heavy rain.
As a side note – Hurricane Maria also bears watching with the potential to affect the East Coast next week.
The unofficial end of summer does indeed bring us a last gasp of summery weather. A cold front passing through mid-week brings rain and signals a return to more fall-like conditions. Later in the week, we will see high temperatures 5°F below normal. Turning towards the tropics, the risk Irma poses to our region is diminishing, but it now appears Irma will be a threat to Florida.
Rest of today – clear, with ideal conditions for outdoor activities of all kinds. High temperatures in the low-80s.
Tuesday – highs in the low-mid 80s as warm air surges ahead of an advancing cold front. Mostly sunny with increasing clouds late in the day. Some possibility for a spot shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon.
Wednesday – thunderstorms are possible overnight Tuesday as the leading edge of the cold front advances through the area. More rain is expected to ride along the frontal boundary after it passes through, bringing periods of showers throughout the day. High temperatures will be much cooler in the mid-70s with the clouds and rain.
Thursday – mostly cloudy to start with a chance for lingering rain. High temperatures will be cool again in the low-70s.
Friday – mostly sunny skies, much improved conditions as high pressure takes hold. Cool, with high temperatures in the low-70s.
Hurricane Irma an Increasing Threat to Florida
Over the weekend, Irma has been fluctuating in strengthen as it has negotiated marginal conditions for strengthening (mostly the influence of some dry air at upper levels). The National Hurricane Center still forecasts Irma to attain Category 4 strength at some point later this week (130 mph sustained winds or higher) as it encounters more favorable conditions for strengthening, and maintain at least Category 3 strengthen (sustained winds > 115 mph) throughout the forecast period.
The track forecast for Irma has continuously shifted west and south over the weekend due to the influence of an area of high pressure over the Atlantic now, and a faster forecast for the passage of the cold front mentioned above. This frontal boundary lifting out of the East Coast at a faster rate than in prior forecasts would mean that it does not influence Irma to make a turn to the north-northwest and threaten the East Coast. This has two consequences: 1) The chance for Irma to make landfall up the East Coast is diminishing, 2) On the other hand, the risk to Florida is increasing.
This run of the GFS forecast model suggests Irma making landfall on South Florida as a powerful Category 3 hurricane in one week’s time.A “spaghetti” plot of multiple model runs of GEFS, one of the forecast models that forecasters are using to analyze Irma.
It is important to note that with a week to go before Irma nears the US mainland, there could still be room for changes to the track and intensity forecasts. The National Hurricane Center specifically cautions against drawing premature conclusions about the storm’s impact on the rest of the US, while singling out Florida as an area of concern. More updates to come as we continue to watch the development of what could be a very dangerous storm.
Nice weather from the weekend continues today. Chance for rain on Tuesday. Temperatures remain below normal through the week except Thursday. Labor Day weekend looks to start off like autumn.
Rest of today – clouds this morning expected to dissipate somewhat. Below normal temperatures with highs in the upper-70s.
Tuesday – a disturbance off the coast of northeast Florida has the potential to develop into Tropical Storm Irma. Regardless of whether the storm successfully undergoes tropical cyclogenesis, it is still anticipated to bring us some tangible weather impacts. This would be in the form of some rain especially later in the day as it makes a transition to an extra-tropical storm.
Easterly onshore winds from this storm to our south will suppress high temperatures in the low-70s and give us a mostly cloudy day.
Wednesday – unlike Tropical Storm Harvey, the storm above will accelerate quickly out to the Atlantic, so Wednesday should turn out to be a pretty decent day with mostly sunny skies and temperatures rebounding back to the upper-70s.
Thursday – a cold front will pass through the area during the day and could trigger a few scattered thunderstorms. Warmer air ahead of the cold front should give us about average high temperatures in the low-80s.
Peak Hurricane Season
We’re on the cusp of the traditional peak of the Atlantic Hurricane season, which typically begins around late August and lasts through till late September. This period typically sees the highest oceanic surface temperatures (due to the specific heat of water being relatively high, there’s a lag in time between peak solar heating of summer and actual peak ocean temperatures), which in ups the potential for tropical cyclone development.
Not surprisingly, we’ve got Harvey still devastating the Texas coast, about to re-emerge over open water before making a second landfall later this week. We’ve also got a possible tropical cyclone off of the Southeast coast and another tropical wave moving offshore of Africa that could develop into a tropical storm as it moves west. A lot of activity to monitor, hoping that none of it comes our way!
A pleasant Sunday gives way to a wet and cool start to the week. High pressure builds in as Monday’s storm system moves out of the area. The rest of the week, we’ll see below average temperatures, but mostly sunny conditions along with a more comfortable, drier airmass. This will be my last update for a couple of weeks as I’ll be traveling to Europe – I’ll miss out on the solar eclipse happening on August 21st, which I’ll give some details on in this post.
Rest of today – a low pressure center tracking near or over Long Island during the day today will bring multiple rounds of rain, which at times could be heavy. Conditions will deteriorate during the morning, and rains should pick up in the afternoon. A brief pause may occur before another round of heavy rain during the evening and overnight hours. A flash flood watch is in effect due to the possibility of upwards of 2″ of rain falling perhaps in short intervals. Temperatures will be cool with southeast winds off the ocean and clouds keeping things only in the low-mid 70s.
Tuesday – as this storm system pulls away, winds shift to the northwest and high pressure begins to build in. Tuesday should see partly sunny skies clearing up and high temperatures around 80°F.
Wednesday – nice crisp day on tap with high temperatures around 80°F again and lots of sun as high pressure remains in control.
Thursday – a notch warmer with high temperatures in the low-80s and mostly sunny skies.
Total Solar Eclipse of August 21st, 2017
This much anticipated astronomical event is approaching in 2 weeks time. The last total solar eclipse that would have been highly visible from a large portion of the continental United States dates back to March 7, 1970. This greatest magnitude of this eclipse traveled nearly directly over all the major cities of the Eastern Seaboard.
Path of the total solar eclipse of March 7, 1970
Unfortunately, this time around, we won’t be quite as lucky in New York City, but we’re still expecting around a .75 magnitude total solar eclipse peaking around 2:45PM on August 21st. Regardless, it will be an impressive sight to behold as 3/4 of the sun will be blocked out by the moon transiting directly in front of it from our viewpoint. Even with cloudy skies, you should still notice an appreciable change in lighting during this eclipse event. Hope it stays sunny though!
A hot week transitions into a weekend that will see the end of the heat and humidity for at least half of next week and maybe longer. Rain and thunderstorms dot the forecast except appropriately Sunday.
Rest of today – partly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-80s. The rain and thunderstorms this morning give way to a dry day otherwise.
Saturday – a warm front moves through overnight into the morning with a cold front following right on its heels. This will bring a period thunderstorms producing heavy rain at times. Marginally favorable atmospheric conditions could spawn a few strong storms. Clouds clear up in the afternoon and highs are expected to reach normal levels in the mid-80s.
Sunday – cooler, drier air moves in behind the cold front Saturday. High pressure builds to the south and west and moves south sending cooler Canadian air around its periphery towards us. High temperatures will be comfortable around 80°F with lots of sun.
Monday – a weak disturbance brings rain and cooler temperatures, well below average only in the mid-upper 70s.
Trouble in the Tropics?
A vigorous tropical wave has spun up off the west African coast and Cabo Verde. Storms originating from this region have historically been some of the most powerful and damaging, but that’s if they can sustain the transit across the Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center has this wave at a 50% of forming into a tropical depression or storm in 2 days, and 80% chance in 5 days. It’s worrying that it’s starting to get picked up on long-term GFS model runs taking a swipe at the US East Coast as a strong tropical cyclone, however, this far out, it’s difficult to say which one of many scenarios could play out. It does bear monitoring though.
GFS for Wednesday 8/16, with the tropical system in the picture right off the East Coast of the US.
We enter the month of August with much more appropriate, summer weather and temperatures to match. High pressure over the eastern half of the country dictates the weather this week, with plenty of sun and temperatures finally in the normal to above normal range in the mid-upper 80s. Humidity increases and results in daily afternoon chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Rest of today – sunny with high temperatures in the mid-80s.
Tuesday – warmer, sunny with high temperatures in the upper-80s to near 90°F.
Wednesday – similar picture to Tuesday with highs in the upper-80s to around 90 °F, chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm.
Thursday – cooler with temperatures back in the mid-80s range and another chance for thunderstorms in the afternoon.
After a couple days of average temperatures, this weekend sees a return to cool temperatures with a wet start to it all. Conditions improve Sunday, and high pressure builds but temperatures remain below normal until later next week.
Rest of today – increasing clouds as a coastal low begins to form off the Mid-Atlantic. Warm with high temperatures right around normal in the low-mid 80s. Rain should hold off until the overnight hours.
High resolution rapid refresh model runs don’t show significant rainfall until around 2AM EDT Saturday
Saturday – an unpleasant, raw, windy, rainy day more reminiscent of autumn or spring than late July. As the coastal low moves closer to us along a stalled frontal boundary, it will bring chances for moderate to heavy rain along with a stiff northeast wind around 25 mph. As a result, temperatures will be surpressed in the mid-70s. Rain chances taper off during the day as the low moves east.
Sunday – much nicer with plenty of sun and temperatures rebounding to around 80°F. Still will have a cooling influence of the weakening northeast winds.
Monday – high pressure builds and yields another decent day with high temperatures around 80°F, possibly higher with more sun.
