The beginning of the week will see much needed rain, and then transition to sunny and above average weather. Drought conditions have improved in New York State overall, though most of the improvement has been concentrated upstate.
Rest of today/overnight – rain begins to move in to the area overnight. Because of the very dry air that was in place to end the weekend, it will take some time before the moisture associated with a coastal low can saturate the air. It appears the most likely time for when heavier/steadier rains begin is around 4AM.
Tuesday – rain, moderate to heavy at times in the morning. Northeast winds around the coastal low responsible for the rain will keep temperatures cooler than normal in the low-50s with cloudy skies. Rain chances diminish substantially in the afternoon.
Wednesday – a small chance for lingering drizzle on Wednesday as temperatures rebound back into the upper-50s. Clouds will be on the decrease.
Thursday – sunny, with a high near 60ºF. High pressure takes over to to end the week.
Drought Improves Upstate, Still Severe in and Around NYC.
Recent rains have improved the drought situation for many portions of upstate New York, and also some areas of the city and Long Island. However, as you can see from the image below, much of the area is still gripped by severe drought.
The 2016 election will soon be behind us. Regardless of who wins, we’re in for a general cooling trend later this week. We have a shot at rain this Wednesday although chances are not too high.
Rest of today – seasonable, sunny, highs in the mid-50s.
Tuesday (Election Day) – warmer, with high temperatures in the low-mid 60s. The start of the day will be chilly though, due to clear and calm skies and excellent radiational cooling overnight. If you’re lining up early to vote, expect temperatures in the mid-40s.
Milder air will get swept up around the high pressure center over TN/NC ahead of the advancing cold front
Wednesday – mostly cloudy with a chance of showers increasing during the day. Not expecting anything by way of heavy rain. High temperatures around 60ºF.
Thursday – skies clearing to mostly sunny with high temperatures in the seasonable upper-50s.
There’s nothing scary with our weather this week in New York City. We’re looking at a cool start to the week, followed by a gradual warmup with a chance at rain towards the later part of this week. We received a couple rounds of drenching rains last week and yesterday, which will help the drought conditions somewhat, but it’s still not nearly enough to make up the deficit we’ve had this year.
Rest of today – clear, with a high in the low-50s after the passage of the cold front that brought us heavy rain yesterday. Trick or treating weather conditions should be just fine, though a bit on the cool side with lows dropping into upper-30s and around 40ºF tonight.
Tuesday – milder, sunny, with a high of around 60ºF in the city.
Wednesday – a warm front will push through early Wednesday. This will open the door to warmer air flowing around a high pressure center over the Southeast and an advancing cold front from the west. Temperatures will rise into the mid-60s with increasing clouds.
Thursday – even warmer still before this cold front above actually hits us. High temperatures expected to be in the upper-60s to near 70ºF. Some chances for showers later in the day into the overnight hours.
Drought Likely to Persist
Despite having received several inches of rain over the last couple of weeks, the seasonal outlook for our area continues to point to persistent moderate to severe drought. We hope to see some good snowfall like last winter that could bust the drought later on.
This weekend we will see a brief warmup in temperatures. Saturday will have the best weather, with another round of rain likely for later in the day Sunday. Temperatures dip back below normal Monday to start off next week.
Rest of today – it’ll be a mostly sunny day. However, a tight pressure gradient around the low pressure and storm system that brought us moderate to heavy rain yesterday will result in stiff winds from the northwest. Temperatures will be below normal in the upper-50s.
Saturday – a very pleasant day on tap with temperatures bouncing back nicely into the low-60s, not too much wind and mostly sunny skies.
Sunday – a cold front will be draped from west to east across the Northeast and push through late Sunday. Temperatures ahead of the frontal boundary will be quite mild in the low-70s with mostly cloudy skies. We get another chance at much needed rain with this frontal passage.
Monday – temperatures fall back into the upper-50s as a result of the cold front passing through Sunday. Mostly sunny skies though.
This week has seen unprecedented and record breaking warmth for the middle of October, with temperatures that were more indicative of mid-June. But this weekend, we’re about to get a dose of reality as temperatures drop dramatically to below normal levels, in some cases 25ºF cooler than mid-week. We get some chances for much needed rain as well with some uncertainty due to the interaction of a possible tropical/subtropical system.
Rest of today – cloudy with a high around 70ºF. Chance of rain late in the day and into the overnight hours.
Friday – chances for rain increase throughout the day and especially in the evening and overnight hours. Interaction with a possible tropical/subtropical system complicates the forecast in terms of where the heaviest rain sets up. High temperatures in the mid-70s and mostly cloudy.
Saturday – the National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of disturbed weather off the Bahamas that they’re giving a 50% of becoming a named tropical/subtropical system in the next few days. Regardless of whether a named storm forms, this system is expected to merge with an approaching cold front Saturday. This would give the cold front an extra shot of energy and moisture, though it would appear that the bulk of this moisture and rain falls well north of the area. Behind this cold front, the pressure gradient tightens and cold air rushes in from Canada, resulting in a blustery, though sunny, day with high temperatures struggling to hit 60ºF and a brisk northwest wind.
Sunday – winds die down, and temperatures rebound to average levels in the low-60s under mostly sunny skies.
We did end up getting rainier, windier weather last weekend than expected because of the lingering influence of Post-Tropical Storm Matthew as it got absorbed by a cold front. This cold front is what’s brought us the first real blast of autumn chill. This trend will reverse itself the next couple days. Cooler air returns for the weekend.
Rest of today – seasonable with highs in the mid-60s and mostly sunny skies.
Wednesday – warmer, with a cold front approaching from the west, warmer air will flow in from the south. This will allow temperatures to rise into the upper-60s under increasingly cloudy skies.
Thursday – a bit milder than Wednesday, with a possibility of temperatures reaching into the low-mid 70s. There is a slight chance for rain with the passage of the cold front, but this frontal passage looks in general to be a dry one.
Friday – colder air returns after the passage of the frontal boundary late Thursday. Temperatures return to seasonable levels in the low-60s under mostly sunny skies with overnight lows dipping to around 50ºF in the city and much cooler in the surrounding suburbs.
Saturday – another picture perfect autumn day with high temperatures in the low-60s and lots of sun.
Severe Drought Persists
We continue to suffer from a persistent and severe drought. We are more than 8″ below where we should be this time of year in terms of overall precipitation and the long term outlook does not call for any relief.
After a gloomy, but appropriately fall-like start October, this week looks like it will bring much improved weather. Temperatures are expected to be just below or at normal for the majority of the week. The big question mark in the long-term for weather in our region is the progress of Hurricane Matthew, which could impact the area this coming weekend.
Tuesday – mostly cloudy to start with gradual clearing and high temperatures in the upper-60s.
Wednesday – mostly sunny with high temperatures in the upper-60s. High pressure anchored over southeastern Canada will give us an extended period of nice weather.
Thursday – sunny, warmer with high temperatures in the low-70s.
Friday – sunny, with high temperatures in the low-70s.
Hurricane Matthew an Increasing Threat to the US East Coast
Hurricane Matthew as captured by one of NOAA’s geostationary satellites on Monday, Oct 3 at 5PM EDT.
Hurricane Matthew poses an imminent and possibly catastrophic threat to Haiti, and portions of Eastern Cuba. Heavy rains from rain bands associated with the storm have already begun falling over Hispaniola and have hit Jamaica as well. Matthew is a potent Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds at 140mph. It is expected to bring rainfall of 8-20″ across the region, with some places receive 7-11′ of storm surge.
Matthew has displayed a number of anomalous characteristics that have defied forecasters and experts best efforts at predicting its intensity. Matthew underwent a period of rapid intensification, going from tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane with 160mph winds in just under 36 hours. This puts Matthew in an exclusive circle of just a handful of storms in recorded history that have accomplished this feat. Even more amazing, Matthew underwent this rapid intensification in the face of strong southwesterly wind shear that would typically stall a storm’s growth or weaken it.
During much of its life, a large area of intense thunderstorms has accompanied Matthew, at times exceeding the actual storm center in size. Scientists are uncertain as yet what role this feature had in Matthew’s unusual intensification. This feature has been impacting Hispaniola.
Infrared satellite image of Hurricane Matthew as a strong Category 4, note the impressive area of intense thunderstorms east of the storm’s core.
Outlook for Hurricane Matthew
Matthew is expected to either skirt the extreme southwest peninsula of Haiti or make landfall there, then perhaps a secondary landfall on Eastern Cuba. The more interaction Matthew’s circulation has with the high terrain of these regions, the weaker it will get before entering the wide open, and warm waters of the Bahamas. It is expected to maintain major hurricane status (maximum sustained winds greater than 115mph) throughout most of the 4-5 forecast period.
Since even earlier today, major forecast models have come into much better agreement about the path of Matthew in the longer term. The unfortunate news is that the models have settled on solutions that push Matthew further to the west than previous runs. This dramatically increases the chances of a landfall somewhere on the Southeastern US, with Florida also in the range of possible tracks. Should this scenario unfold, we would be spared from a direct landfall here, but would still receive a storm of considerable strength with strong winds and heavy rains possible.
We are in an active weather pattern for the entirety of the weekend, with chances for rain nearly every day. This rain is welcome and much needed, as drought persists across much of the area. Friday looks to deliver the heaviest, most persistent rain. We’re also closely monitoring the progress of Tropical Storm Matthew. While Matthew is still only in the Caribbean, it appears increasingly likely it will impact the East Coast next weekend.
Today – high pressure anchored over southern Quebec/southeastern Canada will serve to block the progress of an upper-level low that’s been drenching areas of the Mid-Atlantic. The influence of the high should keep most of the region relatively dry today, with the exception of further west in New Jersey. However, the high pressure to the east and frontal boundary siting just south of us will induce an onshore northeasterly wind, bringing cooler than normal temperatures only in the mid-60s.
Friday – rain chances ramp up considerably Friday as the front depicted to the south edges slightly northwards. This looks to bring a batch of moderate to heavy rain onshore primarily in the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures will be even cooler than today in the low-60s with overcast skies and that persistent northeast wind.
Saturday – temperatures warm up a little into the upper-60s, but rain chances continue throughout the day along with overcast conditions.
Sunday – rain chances begin to diminish as temperatures continue to warm to around 70ºF. Even if rain doesn’t fall, it’ll still be a cloudy day.
Tropical Storm Matthew – Potential East Coast Impact?
Tropical Storm Matthew formed just east of the Lesser Antilles a couple days ago as a vigorous tropical storm and has been steadily progressing west and growing in intensity. Matthew is already a 65mph storm. It is being impacted by moderate southwesterly wind shear that will impede significant strengthening the next couple days. However, this shear is expected to ease as it moves over the warmest waters of the Caribbean. That should allow for more rapid intensification.
Of course, Matthew is far from being a threat to us now, but for days, it’s been clear from various forecast models that this storm will eventually turn north. The pivotal question for whether Matthew becomes a direct threat to us is when this turn north occurs. It’s not looking particularly good for us now, as the forecast package from the National Hurricane Center continues to suggest Matthew will eventually move up the East Coast next week.
Fall has arrived. Temperatures have cooled noticeably, even though technically, they are still in the above normal range. There will be a few chances for much needed rain during the week, overnight into Tuesday, then during an extended period in the second half of the week.
Rest of today – increasing clouds with high temperatures hovering in the low-70s.
Tuesday – overnight into Tuesday, we’re expecting a fairly robust cold front to push through with enough moisture to give some areas around 1″ of rain. This is some much needed precipitation as we’re far behind where we should be for this time of year and a moderate to severe drought continues to grip much of the area. Rain should taper off for the most part by the AM rush Tuesday, with some lingering showers possible. Ahead of the cold front actually passing through, wind flow turns to the south, allowing temperatures to rise into the upper-70s.
Wednesday – the cold front passing through Tuesday will be the spawn of a low pressure center that will stay relatively stationary over the upper Great Lakes, but by later Wednesday, this low pressure will begin to transfer energy to a new low that will form closer to the coast off of Virginia. This low will eventually lead to steady rain chances for the remainder of the week, starting with a small chance on Wednesday. High temperatures are expected to be in the mid-70s.
Thursday – this begins a stretch of unsettled weather as the low mentioned above meanders, and retrogrades (moves west) and inland from the coast. This low will become cutoff from any meaningful steering currents, which means it’ll stick around for a few days. High temperatures will be cooler Thursday around 70ºF with mostly cloudy skies and periods of rain.
Drought Not Likely to Dissipate
Below normal precipitation continues to be expected for the region, which is still gripped by moderate to severe drought, in particular on eastern Long Island.
Yesterday was the Mid-Autumn Festival, a traditional harvest festival celebrated by many cultures in East Asia. It certainly felt more fall-like yesterday with below average temperatures after we spent one day near 90ºF on Wednesday. The fall weather continues this weekend, with a chance for some much needed rain Sunday.
Rest of today – crisp and cool with high temperatures below normal in the low-mid 70s.
Saturday – a bit warmer, with temperatures a couple degrees above normal under sunny skies, in the upper-70s.
Sunday – ahead of an advancing cold front, we could see showers, thunderstorms, and heavy rain, particularly in the afternoon. high temperatures will warm up a little ahead of this front, into the low-80s under mostly cloudy skies.
Monday – since the frontal boundary won’t pass through until late in the day, there’s a lingering chance for showers with high temperatures hovering around 80ºF.
