This past week, weather headlines were dominated by the uncertain course of how Post-tropical Cyclone Hermine would unfold. Now that Hermine has dissipated and is well behind us, we look ahead to the end of the week which will start off warm, but cool off somewhat.
Rest of today – it’s sunny now, but clouds are moving in from the north and west, and will likely result in partly sunny skies later on. High temperatures will range into the upper-80s and around 90ºF in some parts.
Friday – with an area of high pressure to our southwest, warm, humid air from south will flow into the region allowing temperatures to rise into the low-90s. There is a chance for isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon.
Saturday – a frontal boundary will be lingering in our vicinity during the day. This should yield a mostly cloudy day with a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout. High temperatures will be a bit cooler, in the mid-upper 80s.
Sunday – the frontal boundary pushes through as a cold front and brings in some relief from heat and humidity. Skies will clear and allow temperatures to rise to the mid-80s.
Drought Persists, Some Relief Ahead?
Parts of our state are still dealing with an extreme drought, though in our region, we’re “lucky” enough to only have a moderate to severe drought in parts of Long Island. The monthly outlook does call for some drought relief for Long Island, though.
I wrote that I would not be posting any updates while on vacation unless there were to be a special event that warranted it. Well, the likely approach of the remnants of Tropical Storm Hermine into the offshore waters in our region certainly warrants this special update. As of now, it appears that Labor Day itself will be the only day when we could see significant impacts from this storm, but this could change. I will likely have another update Sunday.
Rest of today – sunny, and pleasant with a high in the low-80s. This will be by far the best day of the long weekend.
Saturday – increasing clouds, high temperature around 80ºF.
Sunday – mostly cloudy, with chances for rain increasing in the afternoon. Cool, with highs only in the mid-upper 70s.
Labor Day (Monday) – tropical storm conditions possible, strong and gusty winds, and possible periods of heavy rain, especially in coastal areas. Dangerous rip currents at the beaches, as well as moderate to major coastal flooding. Mostly cloudy otherwise with high temperatures in the upper-70s.
Tropical Storm Hermine this morning
Tuesday – with the remnants of Hermine currently forecast to linger off of the coast of the Northeast, we could see another day of possible tropical storm conditions. Warmer, with high temperatures in the low-80s.
Tropical Storm Hermine’s Forecast
Since the inception of Hermine as a tropical wave off the coast of West Africa, forecasters have had difficulty in accurately capturing the track and intensity of this storm. Its approach towards our region is no different. The forecast is complicated by the fact that Hermine will be completing a process of extratropical transition. A complex set of interactions between it and a frontal boundary adds a high degree of uncertainty towards the late period of this forecast.
Forecast Track
As of this morning, the National Hurricane Center’s official 5 day forecast called for Hermine to continue tracking rapidly northeast just inland of the Southeast coast as it initially interacts with a frontal boundary in its vicinity. During this period, it is expected to weaken, but by Saturday evening, it is expected to re-emerge over open water off the North Carolina Coast. At this point, Hermine is expected to have completed extratropical transition. It will begin another interaction with a baroclinic frontal zone, which is expected to significantly slow its forward progress down. This slowing will likely also lead to the storm erratically meandering off the Northeast coast, possibly doing a loop.
Some major forecast model’s current output for HermineGFS ensemble models (spaghetti models), white denotes the consensus track
Intensity Forecast
During the period that the storm is over land, it will weaken continuously. However, by Saturday evening, when it is expected to re-emerge over open water, and complete extratropical transition, it will gain in strength. The extratropical transition will impart energy from baroclinic forces (interactions between airmasses of differing pressures), and the storm is expected to re-intensify into a strong extratropical storm with sustained winds of 60-65mph.
Impacts
The intensity and location of these impacts will depend greatly on the eventual track for this storm.
Tropical storm watches are in effect for the entire New Jersey coast. Heavy rain in coastal areas. Strong sustained winds, winds gusting in excess of 50mph in some coastal areas. Beach erosion along with coastal flooding, possibly for an extended period of time. High surf and dangerous rip currents.
The end of this week and this weekend will see a gradual transition away from the long-lasting heat and humidity that has gripped the area over the last couple of weeks. There will be some chance for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon, with more significant chances for rain Sunday night and going into Monday.
Rest of today – clouds are expected to clear somewhat, allowing high temperatures to reach into the mid-80s. Some slight chance for showers and thunderstorms exists this afternoon.
Friday – mostly sunny skies and high temperatures reaching into the upper-80s, and again, a chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday – pretty much the same as Friday, high temperatures in the upper-80s, with a chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday – starts out decently enough, but clouds will increase, temperatures will probably end up in the mid-80s. A complex set up of multiple frontal boundaries will be moving in/setting up over the area later Sunday into the overnight hours. The exact timing of the arrival of more significant rains is still not very certain.
Monday – depending on the timing of the frontal boundaries above, we could see a mostly dry day Monday, with temperatures in the normal range, right around 85ºF.
The second half of this week and this weekend will feel as though we’re living in a tropical monsoon climate zone, given the extended period of unsettled weather that we’ll be experiencing. Nearly every day over the course of the next 5-7 days, we’ll see a chance for showers and thunderstorms, some capable of producing torrential rainfall, along with a very warm and humid airmass staying in place.
Rest of today – periods of clouds and sun, likely becoming mostly cloudy this afternoon. There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms, with the first batch appearing to arrive around lunch. High temperatures will be around 90ºF but with the very humid air, heat indexes will be well into the upper-90s. This is the reason for there being a Heat Advisory in place until Saturday evening.
Friday – similar set up to today, periods of sun mixed in with mostly cloudy spans as well. Highs will again be around 90ºF, with a chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon hours. The exact timing, placement, and intensity of the storms for Friday and this entire forecast period will be difficult to forecast with accuracy ahead of time.
This is due to the fact that many of the storms will be driven by subtle perturbations in the atmosphere moving around the periphery of a Bermuda High, and differential day time heating – hence why the chance for showers and thunderstorms is greatest in the afternoon hours. Sea breeze convergence boundaries are likely to serve as triggers for these storms. This Bermuda High is what has been and will be responsible for maintaining the oppressively hot and humid conditions. The tropical airmass it brings will mean that any storms that form will have the potential to tap into tropical moisture and produce very heavy rain that could lead to localized flash flooding.
Saturday – will be by far the hottest day of the weekend with high temperatures forecast to reach into the mid-upper 90s. Heat indexes will be in the upper-90s to low-100s in some parts, likely triggering Excessive Heat Warnings. Once again, a chance for showers and thunderstorms will occur in the afternoon hours.
Sunday – a cold front will approach the region on Sunday, which will lead to a more consistent and higher chance for organized thunderstorm activity. High temperatures will remain hot, in the low-90s.
Monday – low confidence for the forecast through Monday, as the timing of the cold front passage is uncertain. It may linger, which would result in yet more chances for rain. High temperatures should cool off to below 90ºF in the upper-80s.
We finally get a break from the heat along with some much needed rain in the next few days. Saturday looks to be the best day of the weekend. High temperatures this weekend will range anywhere between 15-20ºF cooler than last weekend.
Overnight – lows in the mid-70s as a low pressure center passes almost directly over NYC. Because the low will be right over us, the main area of the heaviest rain will remain north of the city.
Friday – showers punctuated by periods of steady, heavier rain as bands of rain develop and wrap around the low pressure center as it tracks east. High temperatures in the low-80s with overcast skies. This low pressure system will thrive off the humid, tropical airmass in place over the region. A flash flood watch has been issued to reflect the possibility of some areas receiving 1-2″/hour rains. Embedded thunderstorms are possible, but are unlikely to reach severe limits. The bulk of the rain will fall overnight into the morning hours, and should begin tapering off in the afternoon from west to east.
Saturday – high pressure passes briefly giving us a mostly dry day with partly sunny skies with highs in the mid-80s.
Sunday – another disturbance pushesthrough from the south providing more chances for rain and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy with highs in the low-80s otherwise.
Monday – skies gradually clear and temperatures warm back into the low-mid 80s.
Tuesday – warm and sunny with highs again in the mid-80s
Drought Conditions Forecast to Persist
Despite the rains this weekend, many parts of the area remain under a moderate drought, having received only about 25% of normal precipitation for this past month. The outlook for the season calls for persistence of drought conditions as below normal to normal precipitation will be insufficient to break the drought.
Recent weather headlines have been dominated by the heat. This will continue through most of the week, with relief not really in sight until Friday. There will be a chance for severe thunderstorms today, but otherwise, there will be little in the way of rain.
Rest of today – mostly sunny, hot, with highs in the mid-90s. Humidity will make it feel like the lower-100s. The Storm Prediction Center has placed parts of the region under a slight risk for severe weather today. This relates to what appear to be multiple line segments of strong to severe thunderstorms advancing ahead of a weak cold front that look to impact the area during the PM rush.
Tuesday – with the weak cold front above passing through, there will be some drop in humidity. However, temperatures are still expected to rise into the mid-90s under mostly sunny skies.
Wednesday – temperatures finally start to back off the mid-90s into the low-90s under mostly sunny skies.
Thursday – increasing clouds, high near 90ºF.
Drought Continues to Grip the Northeast
Drought continues to worsen and is now prevalent in many parts of the Northeast, with areas in Western New York and Massachusetts particularly hard hit.
This week will be bookended by hot weather, with a break from the heat forecast right in the middle. The only chance for rain during this stretch will be later this afternoon and into the early evening hours.
Rest of today – the Storm Prediction Center has placed parts of the region under a slight risk of severe weather today as a cold front approaches. As usual, areas north and west of the city are more likely to experience organized convective activity, since there will be a stabilizing influence near the coast from the marine air layer. Best timing would appear to be in the evening rush, when a couple lines of thunderstorms could affect the area. High temperatures will reach into the low-mid 90s before this under mostly sunny skies.
Tuesday – with the passage of the the cold front above, there will be a noticeable change in the humidity level for Tuesday. Despite high temperatures reaching into the upper-80s, it will feel considerably more comfortable with the drier air in place.
Wednesday – an area of high pressure behind the cold front will take over for the latter portion of the week. On Wednesday, it will be set up just to our southwest, which will enable cooler winds from the north to bring a brief respite from the heat. High temperatures are only expected to reach into the low-mid 80s.
Thursday – as the high pressure moves off to the east, winds will turn to the west and southwest, and there will be a corresponding increase in high temperatures into the mid-upper 80s again as warmer air returns.
This week started off with refreshing weather Monday. Temperatures will rise slowly during the course of the week with Friday being the hottest day. The only precipitation chance appears to come on Thursday when a cold front approaches the region.
Rest of today – mostly sunny, seasonably warm, with a high in the low-mid 80s.
Wednesday – temperatures begin slowly warming up as high pressure which has been sitting right over us moves to our east. This will allow a warmer southwesterly flow of air into the region.
Thursday – warmer still, possibly with high temperatures hitting 90ºF in some spots. In general, high temperatures will reach into the upper-80s. A chance for showers and thunderstorms will build in the afternoon along with the heat and the approach of a cold front.
Friday – partly cloudy, hot with a high near 90ºF.
Drought Expands Despite Rain
With a dearth of rain continuing, some areas of the northeast (much of Eastern Massachusetts) have been placed under an area of severe drought. For us, a moderate drought persists, despite the fact that we’ve had several rounds of drenching rain over the last couple weeks.
The end of this week will likely see the first official heat wave of the year, typically defined as 3 or more days with 90ºF+ temperatures. The hot and humid weather comes to a close this weekend as a backdoor cold front brings relief by Sunday. A couple rounds of active weather could crop up this afternoon and again Friday night.
Rest of today – hot, humid, with a high in the low-90s. Periods of clouds and sun with increasing clouds this afternoon. The area is under a flash flood watch due to the impending onset of showers and thunderstorms capable of generating heavy downpours of 1-2″/hour. You can see from the satellite image below that discrete, pulse type storms are already building. Coverage of these storms will increase and they will encounter conditions conducive for strengthening, with plenty of moisture in the atmosphere, no capping to speak of, and lots of sunshine leading to MLCAPE values between 1000-1500 J/Kg. Storms should die down by later this evening. If you’re out and about, carry an umbrella because you may get dumped on.
Friday – any relief from the heat from the storms today will unfortunately be short-lived. Temperatures Friday are expected to rise into the low-90s once again under mostly sunny skies. Friday night, as a backdoor cold front the northeast (so-called because it moves from northeast to southwest, the opposite of most cold fronts in the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere), we could see another round of showers and thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rain across the area.
Saturday – with the backdoor cold front slowly progressing through the area during the day, some potential exists for scattered thunderstorms. Temperatures will be more comfortable in the mid-80s with mostly sunny skies otherwise.
Sunday – mostly sunny with a high in the mid-80s. Best day of the weekend!
Rain moves through tonight, and then temperatures warm through the course of the week as a Bermuda high takes control. There’s a chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday – otherwise this week will certainly feel like summer.
Rest of today (Independence Day) – increasingly cloudy, with a high near 85ºF. Forecasts last week seemed to indicate a rain-free weekend outside of Friday night when we experienced some severe thunderstorms. It now appears that an area of low pressure tracking to our south will bring rain to the area tonight. Currently, the timing of the rain appears to bring it in the city right around the time that the fireworks display is scheduled to kick off. The heaviest rain won’t begin falling until later tonight, so I don’t think this will wash the fireworks out, but it will result in less than ideal viewing conditions if you plan on being outside at the display.
Tuesday – steady rains should end by the morning rush tomorrow, though a lingering shower could pop up till around noon. Decreasing clouds with high temperatures in the mid-80s.
Wednesday – temperatures heat up into the low-90s, with dewpoints holding steady in the mid-upper 60s, it will feel like August. A Bermuda high will take hold through the end of the week, which could bring our first heat wave of the season.
Thursday – mostly sunny with a chance of thunderstorms developing late in the day. High temperatures around 90ºF.
