Category Archives: Rain

NYC Weather Update – Nov 9, 2015

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We have a fairly active weather week ahead of us, with two separate chances for rain coming from two different storms, the first of which impacts the area tomorrow and tomorrow night. The second storm system to affect us this week will make its passage on Thursday. Temperatures are much more seasonable this week with high temperatures hovering near 60 for most of the week.

Rest of today – mostly sunny with a high near 60 degrees.

Tuesday – a low pressure center over the Gulf coast today will strengthen into a coastal low as it tracks to our south and east Tuesday and Tuesday night. Like most coastal lows of this type, a large shield of overrunning precipitation will advance ahead of the actual low. This should translate to a rainy day Tuesday, with steady chances for precipitation throughout the course of the day and into the overnight hours. An east wind will also bring a cool, onshore breeze into the area, giving the day a raw feel despite high temperatures near 60.

 

 

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Wednesday (Veterans Day) – looks to be bookended by wet weather, but should be a mostly dry day with more clouds than sun, and a high again near 60.

Thursday – a cold front associated with a low pressure system that’s currently over the plains will bring about our second chance for rain this week, although this round of rain should not be as long-lived or drenching as tomorrow’s storm. High temperatures should remain around 60.

NYC Weekend Weather – Nov 5, 2015

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The warm trend we’ve enjoyed this week comes to an abrupt halt over the weekend as we return to seasonable highs in the upper-50s. We are due to enjoy a couple more days of much above average warmth beforehand, as we’re now in the warm sector south of a warm front that has pushed through and west of a cold front due in late Friday and into the overnight hours Saturday.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy with a high in the upper-60s. A slight chance of rain especially later in the afternoon.

Friday – we’ll be firmly within the warm sector tomorrow with a steady southwesterly flow. Warm air will work its way into the area and yield near record-breaking temperatures in the mid-70s, and possibly even warmer if there are any breaks for sun. There will be another chance at rain tomorrow afternoon and evening as the cold front nears and passes through.  noaad2

Saturday – a marked change in sensible weather is on tap for Saturday once the cold front passes through the region. Skies should clear from west to east over the day, but high temperatures will only be in the low-60s.

Sunday – even cooler, with highs only in the mid-50s under sunny skies.

NYC Weather Update – Oct 26, 2015

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The weather story this week will feature a storm system that will be drawing on the remnant moisture from Hurricane Patricia and producing some heavy rain on Wednesday as it passes through the region. Aside from a wet day Wednesday, the remainder of the week looks to be dry with decently warm temperatures.

Rest of today – clear with high temperatures near 60.

Tuesday – mostly sunny with clouds increasing later in the day. High temperatures again near 60.

Wednesday – a low pressure center is expected to form over the Great Lakes region and strengthen Wednesday. A warm front attached to this low pressure center will pass through the region late Wednesday. Increasing chance for more widespread rain as the day progresses with a high temperature in the mid-60s. Some urban flooding could occur. Most of the heaviest rain will likely be falling in the late evening and overnight hours.gfs_namer_054_1000_850_thick

Thursday – could see a few showers in the morning, but then skies should begin to clear and allow for temperatures to warm up into the mid-60s again before a cold front drops through.

 

Drought Update

We’re hoping for the rains Wednesday to make a dent in the stubborn moderate drought that continues to cling to the metro area, in particular Long Island.

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NYC Weekend Weather – Oct 22, 2015

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The warm spell that we’ve enjoyed in the city up to this point will be ending tomorrow. While temperatures will cool off this weekend, we won’t be seeing anything close to the chilly lows we saw last weekend. We’ll have good weather Saturday before another cold front pushes through late Saturday into Sunday, which could spark off a few showers.

Rest of today – temperatures are surging into the mid-70s ahead of a cold front that will push through later today and overnight. There could be a small chance for showers associated with this cold front later, though it’s more likely this front will be dry.

Friday – high pressure builds behind this passing cold front. Cooler temperatures with highs only around 60 in the wake of this cold front despite plenty of sunshine.

Saturday – temperatures will be similar to Friday, but with clouds on the increase as another cold front approaches late Saturday. Some showers may occur with this cold front passing through overnight into Sunday morning.

Sunday – warmer with high temperatures in the mid-60s before the cold front passes. A chance of showers early, and the mostly cloudy.

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Fall Foliage

This weekend should have good conditions for anyone traveling upstate apple picking or viewing fall colors. Check out this map to see where the foliage has peaked.

NYC Weekend Weather – Oct 7, 2015

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The three day weekend ahead will feature some idyllic autumn weather with plenty of sun for outdoor activities if you’re heading out of town on a getaway. The only blemish in this otherwise stretch of superb weather will be a round of showers and thunderstorms entering the city Friday afternoon and passing through Friday night.

Rest of today – we’re starting off with mostly cloudy skies, but skies should clear rapidly within the next couple hours. After that, we get a mostly sunny afternoon with high temperatures near 70. Clouds re-enter the picture later this evening in advance of an approaching disturbance that will bring us rain on Friday.

Friday – overnight tonight, a warm front will push through the area, such that by Friday morning, winds will switch to the southwest. This will allow for warm air to surge up ahead of a cold front that will be passing through Friday night. This setup is favorable for the possible development of thunderstorms ahead of the cold front. Chances for rain increase steadily Friday into Friday night. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies with high temperatures in the upper-70s to near 80.

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Saturday – the cold front moves quickly through the area Friday and by Saturday, skies should clear up, while temperatures cool off into the mid-60s.

Sunday – another picture perfect autumn day with high temperatures in the mid-60s and ample sunshine.

Monday (Columbus Day) – stretch of nice weather continues into Columbus Day, with temperatures slightly warmer in the upper-60s to around 70.

Drought Update

The drenching rains two weeks ago helped alleviate drought conditions over large portions of the Northeast. However, moderate drought conditions stubbornly persist in the NYC metro area, especially in Long Island.

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NYC Weekend Weather – Sept 10, 2015

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Some much needed rain is falling today, with another round of rain coming this weekend. Friday and Saturday look to be the best days out of the stretch, while Sunday has the best chances for rain. The tradeoff for this wet weather will be noticeably less humid, cooler, and more seasonable conditions to start off next week.

Rest of today – we are currently in a dry pocket which should last through the late afternoon hours. The cold front that is initiating these showers and scattered thunderstorms will be slow to move through. A low pressure center that is riding along the frontal boundary is currently parked over us, and as this low continues to move off to the northeast, additional rain is expected develop and wrap around the backside of the low. With this low and the front lingering, we will likely get another round of widespread showers with some heavy downpours possible again later this evening and into the overnight hours. With the rain and cloud cover, highs will only reach the upper-70s before dropping back down.

Friday – once the low pressure and cold front have passed, conditions should begin to improve quickly. There’s a lingering chance for showers in the morning, but by the afternoon hours skies should be clearing with high temperatures around 80.

Saturday – another cold front and low pressure will follow on the heels of today’s system. The timing of precipitation with this system appears to be trending towards late Saturday evening, and primarily overnight into Sunday. This should allow for a mostly sunny day with temperatures again around 80.

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Sunday – showers appear to be likely on Sunday, with an isolated thunderstorm possible as well. High temperatures will be in the upper-70s with the clouds and rain.

Monday – once the storm system passes on Sunday, high pressure building to our southwest will allow cool, dry air from Canada to flow into the area, resulting in temperatures again in the upper-70s, but with mostly clear skies.

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NYC Weather Update – Sept 8, 2015

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Another steamy beginning to week is following on the heels of Labor Day. Today and Wednesday are both days when the temperature could top 90ºF. By Thursday, a strong cold front moves through, bringing the potential for much needed rain and cooling things off considerably for the end of the week.

Rest of today – sunny, hot and humid, high temperatures in the low-mid 90s in the city. Humidity remains just low enough to obviate the need for any excessive heat watches/warnings.

Wednesday – increasing clouds from west to east on Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front. Temperatures remain warm ahead of the front, generally in the upper-80s with maybe a couple spots topping 90. There could be a few pop up showers and thunderstorms later in the afternoon, perhaps along a sea breeze front in Brooklyn/Queens.

Thursday – widespread showers and thunderstorms will be the order of the day, with cooler temperatures in the low-80s and cloudy conditions. Periods of showers and thunderstorms could persist for extended periods of time, bringing the potential for flash flooding in some locations. Rain ends from west to east gradually during the overnight hours.

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NYC Weather Update – Aug 17, 2015

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A heatwave over the weekend breaks Tuesday, as we enter an extended period of unsettled weather for the mid-week period. Temperatures cool off somewhat into the mid-80s, slightly above average for this time of year. Each day, except Tuesday perhaps will carry some small but non-zero chance of rain.

Rest of today – the possibility exists for some isolated thunderstorms to form over portions of the region this afternoon. The setup would be similar to yesterday when the temperature differential resulting from a sea breeze served as the trigger for some slow-moving storms. Plenty of instability from the heat and humidity and very little convective inhibition will mean that storms could form rapidly. However, the exact location of where these storms form is difficult to pinpoint. Areas that experience storms could expect heavy rain, otherwise expect mostly sunny skies with high temperatures that could touch record levels in the mid-90s.

High resolution rapid refresh model simulated radar for 2PM EDT today
High resolution rapid refresh model simulated radar for 2PM EDT today

Tuesday – a bit cooler with temperatures in the upper-80s and sunny skies to start, clouds increasing towards the evening.

Wednesday – high temperatures will cool off further into the mid-80s under cloud cover, and there will be a chance for rain throughout the day. This precipitation is associated with a slow-moving cold front approaching from the west.

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Thursday – a similar day to Wednesday, perhaps with a bit more sun, but highs again in the mid-80s and a chance of rain through the day

NYC Weather Update

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The weather story for the first part of this week will be a prolonged heavy rain event occurring Tuesday, delivering parts of the region some much needed precipitation. Temperatures will remain slightly below normal through Thursday, first because of the rain and clouds and then due to the influence of high pressure to our west.

Rest of today – NYC remains under mostly sunny skies, however, cloud cover is building to our west, so we could end up with more clouds later this afternoon. It will be a noticeably more humid day, although temperatures will still only top out in the low-80s.

Tuesday – rain should begin falling in the early overnight hours, and looks to persist through the morning and into the early afternoon hours. The heaviest rain seems likely to fall during the morning hours. Thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, and while the atmospheric conditions will not be very favorable (timing of the strongest lift will occur early in the day before any substantial daytime heating, which will be diminished due to cloud cover anyway), a few strong storms could still pop up in the morning. Some areas could see some isolated flash flooding if storm cells end up training over the same spots. Under the cloud cover and rain, high temperatures should be limited again to the low-80s.

North American Model High Resolution simulated radar for 11AM EDT Tuesday
North American Model High Resolution simulated radar for 11AM EDT Tuesday

Wednesday – rain will have cleared out after the passage of the cold front responsible for Tuesday’s storms. Behind this cold front, high pressure will set up over the Ohio Valley, bringing in cool, dry air. Temperatures will be quite comfortable in the low-mid 80s with low humidity.

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Thursday – the pattern of cool, dry weather continues with another day of sunny skies and high temperatures slightly below normal in the low-80s.

Drought Relief

A slight/moderate drought continues to cling to areas of Long Island and costal Connecticut, as you can see from the map below. It does appear that this upcoming Tuesday storm will bring some much needed rain to these particular areas. As you’ll also note from the map of forecast precipitation totals for Tuesday, some of the highest totals are expected precisely in the areas that need them the most.

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Weather Prediction Center's Quantitative Precipitation Forecast for total precipitation between 8AM EDT Tuesday and 8AM EDT Wednesday
Weather Prediction Center’s Quantitative Precipitation Forecast for total precipitation between 8AM EDT Tuesday and 8AM EDT Wednesday

NYC Weather Update – Jul 27, 2015

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The heat will be the main weather story of this week, with temperatures of 90ºF or higher forecast to occur for a majority of the week. This heat does not appear to abate until at least this weekend. Incidentally, according to the Chinese lunar calendar, we’ve just hit 大暑 (literally “big heat”), a period of 2 weeks that are supposed to be the hottest of the summer. Fans of the heat, it is time for you to rejoice.

Rest of today – clouds this morning should slowly give way to more sun in the afternoon. The cloud cover now will help keep temperatures in the mid-80s.

Tuesday – a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, but otherwise hot with highs in the low-90s and a good amount of sunshine.

Wednesday – shaping up to be the hottest day of the week, with high temperatures in the mid-90s.

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Thursday – with a cold front approaching from the west, there may be a few thunderstorms in the afternoon on Thursday which might grant some reprieve from the heat. Otherwise, sun and clouds with a high temperature in the low-90s.