Altocumulus clouds, preceded by cirrus clouds (earlier today and yesterday) are indicative of approaching frontal boundaries
Just a quick afternoon update for you all. It’s been quite a warm afternoon as warm air continues streaming into the area ahead of an approaching cold front. The frontal boundary is still quite a ways off, however, you can already see increasing cloudiness in the form of these altocumulus over the city. Some precipitation is beginning to show up over portions of western NJ. The atmosphere right over NYC is still on the dry side, with humidity recorded at LaGuardia Airport recently only at 47%, and dewpoint temperatures only 44 degrees. This should serve to limit the potential for convective activity and thunderstorms later in the day. In fact, as the area of precipitation to our west enters the region, showers may break up or scatter upon entering the relatively drier airmass.
Brilliant start to the week this Monday with comfortable and seasonable high temperatures in the low-mid 60s.
Tuesday – A cold front will rapidly approach the region from the west. Ahead of this cold front, warm, moist Gulf air will flow in, allowing for high temperatures to edge close to 70. Given the moisture content and warm temps, there is some potential for enough instability in the atmosphere to support the growth of thunderstorms later in the afternoon hours. Some of these storms could produce small hail. Thunderstorms, should they form, would be mostly limited to inland areas west of NYC as the marine layer near the coast tends to exert a stabilizing influence.
Wednesday and Thursday will be similar weather-wise with high temperatures suppressed in the upper 50s to low 60s due to the influence of strong winds from the north and northwest in the wake of the departing cold front. We should see clear and sunny skies both days. Excellent conditions for radiational cooling on both nights will allow lows to drop into the upper 30s and low 40s across the region.
The next chance for rain will be this Friday into the weekend with another cold front moving in from the middle of the country.
Buildings in Lianyungang, China, are shrouded in smog on December 8, 2013. Aerosol pollution from Asia is likely leading to stronger cyclones in the Pacific, more precipitation, and warming temperatures at the North Pole. – National Geographic
A recently published study a by a Texas A&M team led by professor of atmospheric sciences Renyi Zhang points to a possible link between increased air pollution from Asian sources and stronger Pacific storms. There are implications for global climate, including impacts on El Niño. Stronger Pacific storms would lead to increased precipitation in places like the Pacific Northwest.
At its most basic level, the theory behind this study is a fundamental to atmospheric science and is well understood. Water vapor that makes up clouds first need condensation nuclei, such as salt, dust, or in this case, pollutants in order to coalesce around and form clouds. An increase in the number of available condensation nuclei should in theory lead to more robust cloud growth, which allows for more energy to be released into the atmosphere through the latent heat of condensation. This in turn will allow for stronger convective clouds, thunderstorms, and cyclonic storms.
Wet, windy, and cold conditions will predominate our weather today. We’ve already hit our high temperature for the day and will see temperatures continue to plummet throughout the course of the day as rain and the attendant strong cold front moves in later this afternoon. Gusty winds in excess of 40mph, and some rumbles of thunder are possible in the stronger rain showers.
The heaviest rain will be this afternoon/evening, ending gradually overnight. Behind the cold front responsible for this heavy rain, a biting northwest wind will drop temperatures down into the low-mid 30s! Again, there is some small potential for snow flurries across NYC during the tail end of this storm.
We could be looking at rainfall totals up to 2″ in the area, crazy wet for this time of year. Now, Wednesday, you’ll feel the impact of the passage of that cold front, as northwest winds will persist around 15-20mph, suppressing high temperatures in the mid-40s, much below the seasonal average.
Thursday and Friday will both be dry days with high pressure moving over the region, but high temperatures will remain below normal with an onshore breeze blowing in from the east and northeast. Overnight lows both days will remain quite cold in the mid-upper 30s. You thought you didn’t need that winter weather gear anymore, eh?
This extended period of pleasant weather is about to come to an abrupt halt early this week. We do have one more day of decent weather in store Monday, when high temperatures will again hit 70 under cloudy skies. You’ll notice increasingly humid conditions as a breezy south wind continues to pump Gulf moisture our way.
Tuesday gets nasty, showery rain should begin to overspread the area during the morning hours, however, the heaviest rain should occur later in the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures will be significantly cooler Tuesday with highs around 60 due to the clouds and rain, and a stiff south wind increasing from 15mph to 25mph later in the day. As the cold front passes through the area, much colder air will flow in, overnight lows will be only in the mid 30s. There is a chance for snow flurries to occur during the night, although accumulation is unlikely.
NAM simulated radar imagery for 8PM EST Tuesday
Precipitable water forecast, for as much as 1.25-1.5″ of rain across the area.
Wednesday you’ll feel the effects of the passage of the cold front. Although skies will be sunny, high temperatures will struggle to even top 50. The cool trend should continue until the end of the week, with highs Thursday again in the low 50s.
Sadly, due to the expected cloudy conditions, we’ll most likely not be able to see the upcoming lunar eclipse.
We’re going to have a splendid weekend weather-wise in the NYC region. There will be some rain later this evening and into the overnight hours, but things should dry up before sunrise Saturday. High temperatures today will be comfortable in the mid to upper 60s, with western portions of the region possibly topping 70. The south wind will tend to keep inland areas warmer than coastal portions where the wind will be bringing in colder air off the Atlantic where sea surface temperatures are still only in the 40s.
Projected radar reflectivity for about 8PM EST, when we can expect the bulk of the rain for Friday night.
Once the rain lifts out, Saturday is shaping up to be a gorgeous day, with sunny skies and high temperatures in the mid-upper 60s in NYC. Inland areas again will see even higher temperatures with highs near or above 70, while eastern portions of Long Island will see temperatures in the lower 60s due to the continuing cooling influence of southerly winds off the ocean.
Southerly winds will continue to usher in increasingly warm and moist air Sunday with high temperatures in the low 70s inland and in western portions of the region, mid-upper 60s in NYC, and cooler temperatures in the east and coastal CT.
Monday will be the warmest day of the stretch, with highs easily topping 70 area-wide, again with the exception of coastal waters in eastern Long Island and CT. Dense fog may develop overnight Sunday due to the increasingly saturated air mass moving into the area.
Tuesday will be a messy day with a strong cold front moving in from our west. Temperatures will be significantly cooler, with highs probably only in the mid-50s. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is forecasting a significant rainfall event. This sharply tilted cold front is associated with a strong low-level jet streak, which will help usher in very moist air from the Gulf.
Note the extremely meridional (north-south) orientation of air flow on Tuesday, indicating a strong frontal boundaryCheck out the swath of forecast total of 2.5″+ of rainfall Monday-Tuesday in our area!
After Tuesday, get ready for a serious cooldown, as temperatures behind this strong cold front will only be in the mid-upper 40s!
A beautiful Wednesday today, and another superlative day on tap for Thursday. Plenty of sunshine both days with only some scattered fair weather, puffy cumulus clouds. Temperatures will be slightly above the average of 55 with highs topping out near 60. Tonight, clear skies and calm winds will provide ideal conditions for radiational cooling with lows near 40 in the city and much cooler in the outlying areas. Northwest winds today will turn to the southwest tomorrow ahead of an incoming cold front, so it will feel warmer tomorrow than today even though the air temperature is going to be about the same.
Friday we’ll see a chance for periodic showers during the day and into the overnight hours. High temperatures will hold steady around 60.
Low pressure center with a trailing cold front moving through the area Friday
Once the cold front moves through Friday night, it will usher in a gorgeous weekend, with dry conditions, sunny skies, and high temperatures in the low 60s! Best weekend so far this spring, so definitely go out and enjoy it.
Quick update here: skies will gradually begin to clear as clouds associated with the rain storm last night move offshore. As you can see from the satellite image below, sunny skies are already entering portions of Northern NJ. Depending on the time we get under clear conditions, we could very well see high temps hit 70 except in Long Island and coastal CT, where an onshore southwest wind will keep things cooler.
Also of interest, check out the wave clouds out over Central PA! Just as objects in the path of a water can cause eddies and waves to form behind them, you can get the same effect with air flowing over mountain ranges. You can’t surf these (maybe with a glider?)
A chilly start to the weekend as we have cold easterly winds off the ocean, and a deck of clouds overhead. Rain will pick up in coverage and intensity as the day goes on, and it promises to be more or less a washout tonight.
Cloud deck building over the area, bulk of the actual rain is still off to our west over Central PA
Fortunately, the frontal system responsible for the rain will clear out of the area by Saturday. Sunny conditions will prevail, with winds turning from the east to the west and picking up to 15-20mph by the afternoon. High temperatures should top out around the mid-upper 50s, right about average for this time of year. Clear skies overnight Saturday will allow for good radiational cooling, and low temperatures could dip into the mid-upper 30s across the region.
Sunday promises to be the best day of the weekend, with high pressure firmly in control over the region. Sunny skies should allow for a mild day with high temperatures approaching 60.
The next storm system moves into the area later Monday into Monday night, with another chance for rain. Temperatures Monday could top 60 again with warm air flowing ahead of an approaching cold front.
Get out there and enjoy the sunny, mild weather while if you can today. We caught a nice break and got enough sunshine today that we’ll probably top 60 in quite a few spots around NYC. Clouds will increase over the next couple hours. Conditions will steadily deteriorate as a surface low pressures system currently spawning some severe weather over the Plains states tracks northeast into our area. Friday – keep the umbrella handy as periods of showers are likely to occur throughout the day, with increasing coverage and intensity later on in the day into the overnight hours. An steady onshore breeze will usher in much cooler air off the ocean (sea surface temperatures offshore of the region are only in the upper 30s to low 40s). As a result, high temp will hover in the mid 40s.
Saturday – the storm system bringing us rain Friday into Saturday will advance a warm front through the area, and we’ll see a rebound in temperatures and gradually clearing skies. High temps could again top 60.
Sunday – another pleasant and mild spring day as high pressure moves into the area. Mostly sunny skies with a high again near 60.
Monday – our next shot at rain will come Monday-Tuesday of next week, with a storm system forecast to develop in the Gulf. This storm will track northeast through the Ohio valley into the Great Lakes, and a trailing cold front will bring us some steady rain. High temperatures Monday will be around 60 with warmer air flowing from the southwest ahead of the cold front. Long Island and CT shorelines will see cooler highs with an onshore flow.
Our next shot at rain – a low pressure system moving from the Gulf into the lower Great Lakes, and a trailing cold front.
