Category Archives: Rain

NYC Weekend Weather – Jun 26, 2020

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A warm and potentially stormy start to the weekend on tap with Storm Prediction Center placing the area under slight risk for severe weather Saturday. Temperatures during this period in the upper-80s. Weather improves on Sunday behind a cold front. Next week, a lingering upper low may bring daily chances for rain in the afternoons.

This afternoon – mostly sunny with a high in the mid-80s. Overnight lows in the low-70s with increasing clouds towards daybreak.

  • Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Saturday
  • Storm Prediction Center convective outlook for Saturday, showing the region under slight risk for severe weather.

Saturday – a warm front pushes through early in the morning and some showers could accompany this. Mostly cloudy with high temperatures in the upper-80s. A cold front is forecast to push through later, with a prefrontal trough ahead of it. These will serve as the loci for more organized convective activity. Thunderstorms forming in the warm sector behind the early warm front passage may be able to attain severe limits. The main threat is from damaging winds. Overnight lows in the mid-70s with rain chances diminishing early.

Sunday – despite the cold front passage, temperatures stay largely similar to Saturday in the upper-80s due to downsloping winds from the west. With an upper low lingering, isolated, diurnally driven thunderstorms may pop up in the late afternoon, mostly sunny otherwise. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

Monday – mostly sunny though a chance for afternoon pop up showers or thunderstorms persists. High temperatures remain warm in the upper-80s. Overnight lows in the low-70s. Below, you’ll see GFS forecasts for this upper low continuing to influence our weather going into next week. The tangible impacts for this will be continued chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms for much of the week until this upper low finally gets picked back up by primary westerly steering currents and moves offshore.

GFS model 500 mb height and wind. You can see evidence of a persistent upper low that drifts south, then gets cutoff from main steering currents, and remains largely stationary, even retrograding west during next week over the Northeast.

NYC Weather Update – Jun 22, 2020

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The first official week of summer brings us warm temperatures in the upper-80s (low-90s interior). Early in the week, there will be chances each day for scattered showers and thunderstorms, particularly over inland areas. South facing shorelines should enjoy cooler temperatures with the possibility of sea breezes developign. A cold front passes Wednesday, bringing chances for more organized precipitation. Behind this, skies should clear up but temps remain warm.

Rest of today – mostly sunny with high temperatures around 90ºF. Chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Coverage would be spotty at best but with plenty of moisture available, any storms could produce heavy rain. Overnight lows around 70ºF.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Tuesday.

Tuesday – similar to today, with high temperatures peaking near 90ºF and mostly sunny skies to start, then more clouds and some scattered showers and thunderstorms possible later in the afternoon. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

Wednesday – a cold front approaches from the west and brings us a better chance for organized showers and thunderstorms later in the day. These storms may be weakening as they hit the area if they arrive late in the day with sunlight diminishing. High temperatures again around 90ºF. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

GFS model 500 mb height, relative velocity, valid for 2PM Thursday.

Thursday – behind the cold front, skies should clear up as high pressure builds. However, temperatures will remain warm in the mid-80s with downsloping westerly winds. Overnight lows around 70ºF.

NYC Father’s Day Weekend Weather – Jun 19, 2020

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A slow moving low pressure and upper level low will result in the potential for isolated thunderstorms through the weekend with temperatures in the low-80s. Best chances for these diurnally driven thunderstorms would be in the afternoon hours. There’s a good amount of moisture in the air this weekend with steady southerly flow, so these storms could produce heavy rain, though severe weather is not anticipated. Past this weekend, a warmup to the mid-upper-80s (90s in interior) is forecast as upper level ridging and high pressure builds next week.

Saturday – fog early with cooler, marine flow. Temperatures warm into the low-80s with chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms particularly north and west of the city. Overnight lows in the upper-60s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Sunday

Sunday – Similar pattern to Saturday with partly sunny skies, isolated showers and thunderstorms developing later in the day particularly west of the city. Overnight lows in the upper-60s.

Monday – this pattern persists with partly sunny skies, highs in the low-80s and chances for isolated PM thunderstorms. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

GFS model 500 mb temperature, height, and wind forecast for 8PM Tuesday

Tuesday – high pressure builds offshore, with upper level ridging and 500 mb temperatures increasing, we should see sunny skies and very warm temperatures nearing 90ºF. Overnight lows in the mid-70s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jun 5, 2020

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We have a muggy, strormy, and warm start to the weekend with temps in the 80s. Tomorrow, a cold front sweeps through in the afternoon. This will bring relief from the humidity and heat. High pressure builds in going into next week with temperatures back to seasonable ranges in the 70s. We should see an extended period of dry, sunny weather as a result.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy overall with high temperatures in the low-80s. Some shortwaves and surface troughs moving through will serve as the focal point for thunderstorm development. Plenty of moisture in the atmosphere today to tap, so storms could produce heavy rainfall, and if enough hit the same locations via training/backbuilding there is potential for localized flooding. Overnight lows in the upper-60s as storm chances continue with fog possible late.

GFS model precipitable water at 8PM today, with values as high as 2.00″ around NYC.

Saturday – clouds diminishing during the day with high temperatures in the mid-80s. A cold front moves through in the afternoon, but will not have the benefit of having as much moisture as today to tap into. Still, an isolated thunderstorm is possible. Downsloping winds behind the cold front should help dry and warm things up. Overnight lows in the low-60s.

Sunday – high pressure starts to build and skies remain mostly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-70s. Overnight lows around 60ºF.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Sunday

Monday – high pressure continues to build and provide us another sunny day with high temperatures in the mid-70s. Overnight lows in the low-60s.

NYC Weekend Weather – May 15, 2020

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We have summery temperatures in the low-80s to start the weekend. Some storms are possible overnight as a cold front swings through. Saturday sets up to be another nice day with high pressure building. Sunny skies and more seasonable temperatures in the mid-70s. By Sunday, a storm system approaches bringing possible showers. Next week, we may see a prolonged period of wet weather, in part affected by tropical moisture from a potential Tropical Storm Arthur.

Rest of today – a warm front has already pushed through the area earlier this morning. Warm, southwesterly winds will help temperatures rise well into the upper-70s and low-80s. Clouds are likely to increase as a cold front approaches slowly from the northwest. Overnight lows in the low-60s as the cold front moves through, bringing low chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Saturday

Saturday – high pressure builds in behind this cold front. This should yield a sunny day with high temperatures in the mid-70s. Overnight lows in the low-50s.

Sunday – a storm system will be approaching from the west. Rain chances will increase late with mostly cloudy skies and cooler temperatures in the mid-60s. Overnight lows in the low-50s.

Monday – rain chances continue due to the influences explained below. High temperatures remain cool, in the low-60s, with mostly cloudy skies expected. Overnight lows in the low-50s.

Potential Subtropical or Tropical Storm Arthur’s Impact on Our Weather

Next week, we may be in for an extended period of dreary, wet weather as the storm system mentioned above interacts with a potential tropical storm that’s currently forming over the Florida Straits. Actually, regardless of whether this becomes a full-fledged tropical or subtropical storm (which would be named Arthur, and the first named storm of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season), it would still have the potential to bring tropical moisture our way. The interaction between these two storm systems, plus the forecast for a an area of blocking high pressure forming north of them means that we could see chances for rain well into mid-week next week.

  • National Hurricane Center’s forecast outlook for the Atlantic Basin, showing an 80% chance for a disturbance over the Florida Straits to become a subtropical or tropical cyclone
  • GFS model 1000-500 mb thickness, surface pressure, and precipitation for Tuesday, showing this offshore storm interacting with one over land
  • GFS model 4-panel prog valid for 8PM Sunday, showing conditions favorable for tropical cyclogenesis: low wind shear, high vorticity, and decently moist low-mid levels.

NYC Weather Update – May 11, 2020

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Record setting cold this weekend that led to rare May snows will feel like another life time by the end of this week when temperatures will soar to near or above 80ºF. A general warming trend will take place until then, bookended by rain chances today and Friday due to a couple passing storms.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy with hig temperatures in the upper-50s. A fast moving storm could bring scattered showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon. Overnight lows in the low-40s as skies clear.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Tuesday.

Tuesday – sunny high pressure building, high temperatures in the upper-50s. Overnight lows in the low-40s.

Wednesday – high pressure steadily moves east, bringing another day of sunny skies and high temperatures in the low-60s. Overnight lows in the mid-40s.

Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for May 16-20, finally, it looks like we get a break from below normal temperatures!

Thursday – high temperatures warm into the mid-60s with high pressure still in control giving us mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows in the mid-50s.

NYC Weekend Weather – May 1, 2020

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April ended with another stormy week with plenty of rain. May starts of grey Friday, followed by a spectacular day Saturday. Rain enters the picture again Sunday. Behind this next storm system, things will cool off again. This will lead temperatures to continue their cool trend throughout most of next week. During this period high temperatures will range at least 5ºF below the upper-60s that are normal for this time of the year.

Rest of today – the slow moving storm that began impacting us yesterday continues to influence weather today. Scattered showers wrapping around the backside of the low responsible for this storm could still occur. Temperatures should generally be in the low-60s with mostly cloudy skies otherwise. Overnight lows in the low-50s as the storm finally exits.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Saturday

Saturday – high pressure builds in behind this storm, bringing the best day of the frorecast period with high temperatures expected to top out around 70ºF under sunny skies. Overnight lows in the mid-50s.

Sunday – just like last weekend, the sunny, dry weather barely lasts before the next storm moves in. This will be a weaker, and faster moving storm so rain should be on the lighter side. Currently expecting most of the day Sunday to be dry with clouds building and high temperatures still warm in the low-70s. Overnight lows in the mid-50s.

Monday – once this low clears our region, winds shift to the north and a cooler air mass works its way in. Skies clear with temperatures falling back the low-60s. Overnight lows only in the upper-40s. This cool trend looks set to continue for the duration of next week. Though after a week with high temperatures in the 50s, the low-60s looks pretty good.

  • Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for May 6-10. Below average temperatures are indicated as very likely for much of the Eastern US
  • This temperature trend is borne out in the GFS models 2-meter above ground level temperature anomalies. This chart is valid for 8AM Tuesday

NYC Weather Update – Apr 27, 2020

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An active weather pattern brings yet another week of cool, rainy weather. Tuesday will be the only day with sunny skies and near normal temperatures with high pressure briefly building in. Otherwise, a couple slow moving storms will bring clouds and rain the rest of the week. This will result in temperatures largely running below seasonal averages. I suppose that’s some incentive for people to stay safe and quarantine at home?

Rest of today – early rain chances should diminish steadily. High temperatures cool, only around 50ºF under the influence of northerly flow as the slow moving coastal storm that impacted us yesterday and today moves off to the northeast. Clouds should start to diminish later in the day. Overnight lows in the low-40s.

NAM output forecast cloud cover for 11AM Tuesday

Tuesday – we should see a brief window of sunny skies and dry weather as high pressure builds and passes over for the day. This break in rainy weather should allow temperatures to climb into the low-60s. Overnight lows in the mid-40s.

Wednesday – the reprieve from dreary conditions barely lasts a day as yet another storm system takes aim at the area. With the high pressure Tuesday slow to move east, this next storm will be similarly as slow moving as this past weekend’s storm. The result for Wednesday, even if we don’t get too much in the way of rain, will be cloudy conditions and cool, southeasterly onshore flow ahead of an advancing warm front. This will cause temperatures to cool into the mid-50s. Overnight lows barely budge, and hover around 50ºF.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Thursday

Thursday – the second storm of the week hits with steady rain and southeasterly onshore breezes. Warm advection could help temperatures stay slightly above 60ºF, with overnight lows in the low-50s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Apr 24, 2020

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Two coastal lows bring will rain today and Sunday. Saturday ends up being a nice day in between with some high pressure building briefly. The second coastal storm coming on Sunday drags into Monday bringing rain and cool temperatures. Throughout this period, temperatures will range at least 5ºF below normal. This below normal temperature trend, largely a continuation of this week, looks set to continue well into next week.

Rest of today – high temperatures in the low-50s with cloudy conditions and periods of steady rain off and on for much of the day. Overnight lows in the low-40s with rain winding down and clouds clearing.

Saturday – sunny skies and high pressure should allow temperatures to climb to about 60ºF. Overnight lows in the mid-40s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Sunday

Sunday – unfortunately, the dry weather doesn’t last as a second storm moves in for Sunday, bringing yet more rain and cool, cloudy weather. High temperatures topping out only in the low-50s. Overnight lows in the low-40s.

Monday – high temperatures still suppressed in the low-50s as this second storm lifts to the east. Overnight lows in the low-40s. Going into next week, temperature will stay below normal, anywhere between 5-10ºF. Later in the week, it appears a potent, closed 500 mb low will be the culprit for keeping temperatures down (and bringing yet more rain to us)

  • Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for Apr 29-May 3, showing below average temperatures continuing to affect much of the northeastern quadrant of the US
  • GFS 500 mb temperature, height and winds for 2AM Thursday, Apr 30. A closed 500 mb low is forecast to move over the Great Lakes and southern Ontario – this will be partly responsible for cooler than normal temperatures.

NYC Weather Update – Apr 20, 2020

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A couple storm systems will impact NYC this week. The first of these could bring some thunderstorms and gusty conditions tomorrow afternoon. Later this week on Thursday, a second storm bringing steadier rain will move through. Temperatures throughout this period will be generally 5ºF below normal. Tuesday and Wednesday overnight lows could bottom out in the upper-30s.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy, with clouds diminishing later, high temperatures in the upper-50s. Overnight lows in the mid-40s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Tuesday

Tuesday – quick moving storm will push a warm front and then a strong cold front through Tuesday afternoon. Showers should begin in the afternoon and a line of thunderstorms is possible with the cold front. High temperatures around 60ºF with southwesterly flow ahead of the cold front. Overnight lows in the mid-30s.

Wednesday – the low bringing the rain and thunderstorms on Tuesday continues to strengthen. The pressure gradient will tighten around this low and bring windy conditions but with sunny skies. High temperatures cool off into the low-50s. Overnight lows in the upper-30s.

GFS 2-meter above ground level temperature anomalies for 2AM Thursday. A cold night in store for many parts of the Northeast!

Thursday – partly sunny skies with high temperatures climbing into the upper-50s. Overnight lows around 50ºF with rain developing.