Category Archives: Rain

NYC Weekend Weather – Mar 6, 2020

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This weekend starts of with a storm system passing well southeast of NYC Friday into Saturday. The periphery of this low offshore, a weakening secondary low tracking from the Great Lakes, as well as a weak inverted trough pivoting through will still give us a chance for rain later today and overnight into Saturday. Behind this storm, temperatures will cool to seasonable levels in the mid-40s. However, high pressure will build and quickly move southeast. The flow will turn southerly and bring a big warm up to start week in the 60s.

Rest of today – clouds have already worked their way into the are ahead of a secondary low moving east. High temperatures today should peak in the upper-40s. Rain chances increase in the afternoon as bands of precipitation develop and start pivoting around a rapidly strengthening offshore low. The secondary low will transfer energy to this offshore low and eventually be absorbed. A brief period of wet snow could happen overnight, but no accumulation is expected. Overnight lows should be around the mid-30s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7PM Friday

Saturday – clouds should clear with high pressure starting to build in. Temperatures won’t be that much cooler behind this storm, rebounding into the mid-40s, but it will be cooler than we’ve been used to this week. The pressure gradient between the incoming high pressure and departing offshore storm should allow for some brisk northerly winds. As the high pressure continues moving overhead, winds should calm and allow for a mostly clear overnight. Overnight lows will be in the low-30s as a result of good radiational cooling from these conditions.

Sunday – by this time, the high pressure should continue to track southeast. In response, winds will being shifting to the southwest, bringing a much warmer air mass back to the region. High temperatures will likely respond by shooting back into the upper-50s. Overnight lows will be considerably warmer, in the low-40s. We jump ahead an hour as daylight saving time starts.

  • GFS model 2 meter above ground temperatures, 10 meter above ground winds for 2PM Monday
  • GFS model surface pressure and 10 meter above ground winds for 2PM Monday

Monday – the prolonged period of southerly flow as the high pressure keeps moving off to the southeast with plenty of sun at an increasing angle should result in high temperatures well into the 60s, mid-upper 60s possibly! Overnight lows will continue warming into the mid-40s.

NYC Weather Update – Mar 3, 2020

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First half of this week features much above average temps in the upper-50s slowly dropping to the low-50s after mid-week. A passing storm system could bring showers and isolated thunderstorms overnight tonight. Temperatures remain mild until later in the week. Another chance for rain/snow is possible overnight Friday into Saturday as another storm system passes by.

Rest of today – very mild, high temperatures in the upper-50s with the area in the warm sector of a low pressure system centered over northern Quebec. A secondary low will bring another reinforcing warm front through before the trailing cold front finally swings through. Rain chances increase towards the afternoon with a batch of rain possible around 3PM. A second, stronger round of rain is possible around 10PM. Overnight lows in the mid-40s.

Weather Prediction Center Surface forecast for 1AM Wednesday

Wednesday – despite the passage of a cold front, the air mass behind the front won’t be that much colder than today’s. Furthermore, downsloping westerly flow should keep things on the mild side with high temperatures expected in the mid-50s under mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows will dip into the upper-30s.

Thursday – another nice day with high temperatures still above normal in the low-50s, with mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows in the upper-30s.

Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for Mar 8-12, showing a warm up yet again next week.

Friday – clouds build as a couple storm systems start making their way towards our area. Cloud cover and chances for rain during the day will keep temperatures closer to normal in the mid-40s. Overnight lows in the low-30s could allow for some rain to mix with snow before the storms clear our area.

NYC Weather Update – Feb 24, 2020

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Mild temperatures from this weekend carry over into the beginning of this week. High temperatures will remain in the 50s, well above normal, until the second half of the week. A couple storm systems will impact the area bringing rain, as well as a cool down in temperatures to end the week. The upcoming weekend will see temperatures drop to below normal levels with highs only in the 30s.

Rest of today – very mild, high temperatures in the upper-50s with persistent southerly flow. Increasing clouds towards the overnight hours. Rain chances increase towards day break with overnight lows in the low-40s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7AM Tuesday

Tuesday – rain chances continue to increase as the storm above moves closer. High temperatures top out in the low-50s with mostly cloudy skies and rain chances throughout the day. Overnight lows in the low-40s with rain chances continuing.

Wednesday – rain starts to diminish but is still possible with this storm system being fairly slow to clear the area. High temperatures remain in the low-50s. Overnight lows in the mid-40s with one more slug of rain moving through.

GFS mean sea level pressure, and 10 meter above ground winds for 11PM Thursday

Thursday – clouds start to break and the rain finally clears the region. Winds will pick up as high pressure builds to the west with low pressure exiting east, creating the right pressure gradient depicted above. High temperatures dropping into the upper-40s. Overnight lows in the low-30s with cooler northwesterly winds.

NYC Weather Update – Feb 18, 2020

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Cloudy day with light rain possible to start the forecast period. Skies clear for the remainder of the week behind this storm as high pressure builds. Temperatures will dip into the 30s for a brief stretch as well before rebounding back to above normal levels in the mid to upper-40s. Looking ahead into next week, above normal temperature trend is very likely to continue.

Rest of today – Light rain possible today with a warm front passing nearby and a cold front following behind that. However, the bulk of the moisture with this storm system appears to be focused south of the region, so not expecting any heavy rainfall totals. Otherwise, mostly cloudy with highs in the upper-40s. Overnight lows around 40°F with gradual clearing towards daybreak.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7PM Tuesday.

Wednesday – mostly sunny with high temperatures in the low-40s, about average for this time of year. Winds turn to the northwest behind the cold front, which will facilitate cold air advection. Overnight lows in the mid-20s as a result with high pressure building.

Thursday – cold start to the day will likewise mean a cooler high temperature in the mid-30s with mostly sunny skies. High pressure continues to exert its influence. Overnight lows once again quite cold in the low-20s.

Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for Feb 23-27, showing greater than 90% probability of above normal temperatures for much of the Northeast.

Friday – this pattern continues with high temperatures Friday reaching into the mid-30s under mostly sunny skies. Overnight Friday into Saturday, the high pressure finally starts moving east in earnest. Lows will range in the upper-20s.

NYC Weather Update – Feb 11, 2020

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Light rain today will fall today. This will be followed by a brief spell of sunny skies and calm weather Wednesday. Another storm system impacts the area Thursday, bringing some mixed precipitation and rain. On the back side of this system, a drastic drop in temperatures will take place going into the weekend. This will be the coldest air mass we’ve seen in many weeks with lows in the teens.

Rest of today – Light rain in the morning and cloudy. High temperatures in the upper-40s. Overnight lows in the mid-30s with gradual clearing.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7AM Wednesday

Wednesday – high pressure briefly builds in with high temperatures in the mid-40s. Mixed precipitation could begin later in the day as the next storm system approaches. Overnight lows in the upper-30s with increasing mixed precipitation then transitions to rain.

Thursday – A warm up takes place with a warm front and southerly flow overnight. High temperatures reach into the mid-50s with rain ending in the morning/early afternoon. Much cooler temperatures overnight with lows around 30°F once the cold front of this storm system moves through.

GFS model 1000-500 mb precipitation and thickness valid 5PM Friday. Note the large area of Canadian high pressure centered over Indiana.

Friday – strong Canadian high pressure builds behind the cold front mentioned above. A much colder air mass will accompany this high, with temperatures Friday only in the low-30s. The real chill takes place overnight, with lows dropping into the mid-teens as Arctic air keeps pumping in!

NYC Weekend Weather – Feb 7, 2020

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We start this weekend with a high wind warning as a strong low pressure center passing overhead. A much colder air mass will be on the heels of this passing storm. A brief calm Saturday spell punctuates an otherwise active pattern with another storm approaching to start next week. High temperatures during this time will generally be at or above normal (~40°F) with a big warmup by Monday.

Rest of today – high temperatures have already peaked in the mid-50s but the remainder of the day will see a continuing fall in temperatures through the 40s and 30s as strong cold air advection kicks in. This is due to a potent low pressure system (972 mb and strengthening) passing overhead. The tight pressure gradient around this low, in addition to a well-mixed layer forming with winds aloft at 50 knots mixing down will yield very strong winds. A high wind warning is in effect this afternoon when sustained winds could easily be in the 30-40 mph range with gusts exceeding 60 mph in places. Winds will abate overnight as the low exits northeast, temperatures will keep falling all the way into the upper-20s with cold air advection driven by winds from the northwest continuing.

  • Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 1 PM today. Note the tight packing of isobars around the 972 mb low pressure center moving just north of the area.
  • NAM model’s forecast sounding for 1PM today. Very strong unidirectional wind profile is indicated, with winds just above the surface in excess of 50 knots. A well-mixed layer is evident as well up to about 850 mb where winds look to range between 55-65 knots. This should allow strong gusts and sustained winds to make it to the surface.

Saturday – high pressure builds in briefly, and should yield a mostly sunny day. With overnight lows in the upper-20s, high temperatures will be decidedly colder around 40°F. Overnight lows remain on the cold side around 30°F.

Sunday – clouds increase with high temperatures in low-40s as the next frontal system approaches. Winds will shift to the south. There is a chance for rain/snow mix then rain during the day. Overnight lows in the mid-30s.

Monday – prolonged southerly flow will help kick temperatures up to the low-50s as the frontal system slows in its approach. This will also bring prolonged chances for rain. Overnight lows in the upper-30s.

NYC Weather Update – Feb 3, 2020

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The groundhogs were unanimous in their proclamation of an early spring, but do their predictions jive with climate forecasts? Either way, the first week of February will be an active one with multiple storms impacting the area. Temperatures are forecast to start much above normal in the mid-50s, then taper down to being a touch above normal in the low-40s. Most of the precipitation that falls should be in the form of rain, though overnight periods could produce mixed precipitation.

Rest of today – Early clouds should give way to more sunny skies later in the day. High temperatures will be mild, in the mid-50s as a stationary front slowly lifts north as a warm front into the overnight hours. Overnight lows in the low-40s.

Tuesday – High temperatures in the low-50s. The warm front mentioned above stalls out, then returns as a cold front. This pattern brings the potential for some light rain showers. Overnight lows in the low-40s.

Wednesday – high pressure builds in briefly, and should give us some reprieve from rain, however, north winds will cool things off with highs in the low-40s. Overnight lows drop into the low-30s as a second, stronger storm system takes aim at the area. This one could start off as wintry mix and sleet overnight for NYC.

Thursday – any accumulation of wintry mix should get washed away as this second storm system lingers and produces rain during the course of the day Thursday. Mostly cloudy otherwise as highs climb into the low-40s. Temperatures currently forecast to remain steady for the most part overnight with onshore flow.

Are the Groundhogs Right?
Climate Prediction Center’s temperature outlooks for the second half of February and the entire month suggest that the groundhogs might be on to something – at least for the eastern part of the US (especially the southeast), where above normal temperatures are being forecast. That isn’t as much the case for the western US, as you can see below.

  • Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for Feb 8-12
  • Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for Feb 10-16
  • Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for the whole month of February

NYC Weekend Weather – Jan 31, 2020

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Rain to start this weekend leads to a dramatic pattern change with anomalous ridging taking place by late in the forecast period. Temperatures throughout the period range from a few degrees above normal in the mid-40s to the mid-50s by Monday. The warmth continues into the middle of next week.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy with high temperatures in the mid-40s. A relatively weak coastal low will develop and move towards our area overnight. The best chances for rain are in the early overnight hours. Overnight lows in the mid-30s.

Saturday – rain chances will diminish quite a bit as the core of the low continues exiting to the northeast. Mostly cloudy with high temperatures in the mid-40s. Overnight lows in the the mid-30s. Some snow could mix in overnight as lingering chances for precipitation continue.

Sunday – things will dry out as the low continues to distance itself from us. Mostly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-40s. Overnight lows in the upper-30s.

Monday – the synoptic scale pattern shifts as strong ridging at the mid-levels occurs. This will translate to warm high temperatures in the mid-50s on Monday with mostly sunny skies and southerly flow. Overnight lows in the mid-40s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jan 16, 2020

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This weekend coming up will see a dramatic contrast from last weekend’s record-breaking warmth. Temperatures during the next few days will be average to below normal. Overnight lows in the low-20s for this period. A “warm up” will happen as we enter the warm sector of a passing storm Saturday going into Sunday, but reinforcing cold air arrives to start next week.

Rest of today – partly sunny with strong northwesterly winds. Temperatures will drop from around 50ºF into the low in the mid-20s overnight. A trough extending west from a departing area of low pressure that’s bringing the strong winds may touch off some rain.

Friday – a cold, sunny day with high temperatures starting off in the low-20s and only expected to reach 30ºF under the continuing influence of northwesterly winds .

Saturday – a large storm system will move through. Temperatures starting off in the low-20s will warm into the upper-30s with southerly flow ahead of the main cold front associated with this low. Thermal profiles will support snow to start, with a light accumulation possible before temperatures warm enough at the coast to transition to all rain overnight. Overnight lows aren’t expected to move much, dropping into the mid-30s.

  • GFS model 500 mb height anomalies for 7AM Monday
  • GFS model 300 mb heights and winds for 7AM Monday – the orientation of the jets stream mirrors the position of 500 mb height anomalies

Sunday – improving conditions with high temperatures in the upper-30s and partly cloudy skies. Overnight lows in the low-20s as a second and stronger blast of Arctic air flows in behind Saturday’s storm.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jan 10, 2020

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The weather story for this weekend in NYC will be the near record-breaking warmth we’ll have with temps at or above 60°F Saturday and Sunday. A storm system sweeps through overnight going into Sunday, and should clear by Sunday afternoon. Behind this, temperatures will drop back to the upper-40s, which is still almost 10ºF above normal for this time of the year! Enjoy this rare occurrence of near record warmth that isn’t accompanied by a washout.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy with high temperatures in the low-50s. A strong area of high pressure offshore southeast of our area will be steadily pumping warm, moist air into the region. Looking at the chart below, you’ll see southerly winds blowing at large angles across temperature contours that increase going south – this is an ideal set up for persistent warm air advection and will set the stage for the warmth we see this weekend. Overnight lows in the mid-40s. With moisture advecting into the area, we could see areas of fog develop overnight.

GFS 2-meter temperature with contours and 10-meter wind barbs.

Saturday – very mild with temperatures in the low-60s. Mostly cloudy with a southerly breeze and some fog possible. Overnight lows in the mid-50s. Rain chances increase particularly late overnight going into Sunday morning.

Sunday – elevated convection could bring a rumble of thunder Sunday morning, with rain chances peaking in the early morning hours. High temperatures should remain quite mild, in the mid-60s (and possibly higher with downsloping westerly winds for a period with clearing skies, following the passage of a prefrontal trough and before a cold front closes in). Overnight lows dropping into the low-40s – which is actually still above normal for what a daytime high temperature should be this time of year.

NAM high resolution model output of 1000-500 mb thickness, surface pressure, and precipitation valid for 5AM Sunday

Monday – high temperatures similar to Friday near 50ºF, partly sunny skies. Overnight lows in the low-30s.