Category Archives: Rain

NYC Weather Update – Jan 7, 2020

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A quick hitting storm system brings possible light snow to the region overnight into Wednesday. High pressure builds behind this storm, with winds shifting to the northwest bringing a cool down midweek. Another storm approaches towards the end of the week. Ahead of this, temperatures surge back above normal, approaching 60°F, as southwesterly winds instigate warm air advection.

Rest of today – increasing clouds with high temperatures in the mid-40s. A coastal low passes east of the area, bringing some potential for light snow accumulations (1″ or so). Precipitation will start off as rain, though, then transition to snow briefly overnight. Overnight lows drop to around 30°F.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7PM Tuesday

Wednesday – snowfall may be enhanced by a second fast-moving arctic front. Behind this front, high pressure builds. Decreasing clouds, with winds picking up from the west then veering northwest towards overnight hours. High temperatures in the low-40s. Overnight lows will plummet quickly into the upper-20s with an Arctic air mass and northwesterly flow. Winds may gust above 30 mph during the overnight hours.

Thursday – expecting a calm, bright, sunny day with high temperatures in the low-30s, below normal for this time of year. High pressure will be moving right over us during this time. Overnight lows in the low-30s.

GFS model 500 mb height anomalies for 1AM Friday. Note the strong positive height anomaly over the Northeast, with a corresponding strong negative height anomaly over the Rockies.

Friday – high pressure will move offshore to the east, setting up warm southwesterly return flow between the western periphery of the high and an incoming storm system. High temperatures expected in the upper-40s. Temperatures should in fact warm up overnight, through the upper-40s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jan 3, 2020

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The first weekend in the new year starts off wet and mild with a complex storm system moving over the Eastern US. Things will settle down by Sunday with a cool down coming behind this storm system. Temperatures start to rebound early next week. In general, high temperatures will trend above normal for this time of year by 5°F, topping out in the mid-40s or higher.

Rest of today – periods of drizzle during the afternoon before a second round of steadier precipitation possibly later this evening. High temperatures in the low-50s with the warming influence of westerly flow ahead of the second frontal boundary shown below. Overnight lows in the mid-40s.

Saturday – rain chances continue during Saturday. Like Friday though, the best dynamics and moisture for heavy rain seem to bypass NYC itself. This may result in more periodic rainfall on the light side. Onshore flow from the northeast should continue to keep temperatures mild, around 50°F. Overnight lows will drop into the low-30s as the storm clears and winds turn to the north and northwest.

Sunday – a mostly sunny day expected with breezy northwesterly winds. High temperatures cooler, in the low-40s. Overnight lows remain in the low-30s.

Looking ahead into next week, the above normal temperature trend for much of the Eastern US appears to persist.

Monday – high temperatures in the mid-40s with mostly sunny skies and continuing windy conditions. Overnight lows in the low-30s.

NYC Weather Update – Dec 17, 2019

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A soggy and messy start to the week will give way to a blast of Arctic air, leading to an extended period of below normal high temperatures only in the 30s for the most part. Temperatures do look to rebound over the weekend towards more seasonable levels. The next chance for precipitation happens Wednesday as an arctic front, harbinger of these much colder temperatures, crosses the area and brings possible snow squalls.

Rest of today – periods of rain during the day with high temperatures in the mid-30s. Rain tapers off and ends early this evening as the low pressure responsible for the stormy conditions moves off to the east. Overnight lows drop to around 30°F.

GFS model 500 mb height anomalies for Wednesday at 7PM, note the strong negative height anomaly over the Northeastern US and St. Lawrence Valley

Wednesday – should be a mostly sunny day, though as an arctic front hits us late in the day and in the early evening, a few snow squalls/snow bands could hit. These would be brief in nature but could impinge on visibility, making travel difficult. High temperatures should be similar to today in the mid-30s. Overnight lows will plummet quickly into the upper-teens with an Arctic air mass and northwesterly flow.

Thursday – northwesterly flow continues as strong Arctic high pressure builds. This will keep temperatures only in the upper-20s for highs under mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows in the low-20s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7AM Friday

Friday – temperatures moderate a little bit, with highs in the low-30s as the high starts moving east. Overnight lows in the low-20s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Dec 13, 2019

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Mild temperatures in the mid-50s are on the way along with long duration drenching rains to start the weekend. Rain tapers off Saturday evening and conditions improve Sunday with a return to more seasonable temperatures in the 40s. A chance of wintry mix or snow is possible late Monday.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy with chances for rain increasing by the afternoon. Steady rain expected overnight. High temperatures around 50°F. Temperatures actually rise overnight with southeasterly onshore flow aiding warm advection.

  • NAM 2-meter temperature and 10-meter winds at 11PM Friday
  • NAM precipitable water for 7AM Saturday

Saturday – rain continues through the day Saturday with high temperatures peaking in the mid-50s as a warm front passes and persistent onshore flow from the southeast, backing briefly to the northeast then veering south continuously advects warmer air off the ocean to the area. Overnight lows are a different picture dropping into low-40s as winds turn to the west behind a cold front.

Sunday – as the parent low bringing this rain moves north of the area and continues gathering strength, winds will pick up from the west. This will bring cooler air to the area resulting in highs in the mid-40s under partly sunny skies. Overnight lows continue a cooling trend to about the freezing mark.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7AM Sunday

Monday – another storm system will impact the area starting late in the day. Temperatures will be cold, topping out in the mid-30s. Precipitation starting late on Monday should begin as snow or a wintry mix given the currently forecast temperature profile. As is the case going into Saturday, a change in wind direction accompanying a warm front should help temperatures actually rise overnight into the upper-30s, allowing precipitation to transition to rain.

NYC Weekend Weather – Dec 6, 2019

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An arctic front swings through today, bringing a blast of cold air behind it going into the weekend. Temperatures will rebound dramatically going into the start of next week with an approaching storm system turning winds to the south. We’ll see high temperatures going from the upper-30s to the mid-50s by Monday.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy with a high temperature in the upper-40s. Chance of rain this evening with the passage of an arctic front. Overnight lows cooling into the low-30s with clearing skies.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7AM Saturday

Saturday – high pressure builds behind the arctic front bringing sunny skies but a much colder polar airmass with high temperatures struggling to hit 40ºF. Overnight lows drop into the mid-20s.

Sunday – high pressure center moves off to the east, allowing for warmer return flow from the south. This should allow temperatures to be a touch warmer than Saturday, in the low-40s. Overnight lows are expected to bottom out around 40ºF before actually rising due to an incoming storm system turning winds to the south.

GFS model output for 1PM Monday, a low-level jet at 850 mb with winds in excess of 40 knots is evident, along with pretty high values of relative humidity.

Monday – high temperatures continue to climb into the mid-50s with deep layer south-southwesterly winds. Increasing chances for rain as a cold front approaches from the west. Heavy rain is possible given a possible tropical moisture connection. Overnight lows barely moving into the low-50s.

NYC Weather Update – Nov 25, 2019

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Thanksgiving week starts off with warmer than average temperatures largely in the mid-50s ahead of an approaching storm that should impact the area Wednesday. Behind this storm, temperatures are forecast to drop back into the 40s. Thanksgiving Day will be dry, however, the low responsible for the mid-week storm will deepen as it exits the region, resulting in winds possibly strong enough to ground the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade balloons.

Rest of today – partly sunny with high temperatures in the low-50s. Overnight lows heading down into the low-40s with mostly clear skies overnight.

GFS model 500 mb height anomalies, showing positive anomalies over much of the Northeast on Tuesday

Tuesday – southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching cold front/storm system should allow temperatures to warm into the mid-50s. Overnight lows in the mid-40s.

Wednesday – cloudy with high temperatures in the mid-50s. Chance of showers during the day and into the early overnight hours. Decreasing clouds overnight, with lows in the mid-40s and increasing winds.

GFS model output for 1000-500 mb heights, surface pressure, and precipitation

Thursday – mostly sunny with high temperatures around 50°F, winds should be quite breezy with a tight pressure gradient forming around the deepening and exiting low pressure center. Overnight lows in the mid-30s.

NYC Weather Update – Nov 18, 2019

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Spells of rain will bookend what should otherwise be a pleasant week of mostly dry weather. Temperatures will trend slightly below normal for this time of year, however, we will avoid any dramatic swings in temperature. Record cold will not be on the table either. All in all, it should shape up to be a fairly typical mid-November week.

Rest of today – windy, mostly cloudy, with chances for scattered rain showers as a slow moving coastal low continues spinning off of the coast of New England. High temperatures should only hit the mid-40s with the cooling influence of clouds and persistently northeasterly flow. Chances for rain continue overnight with lows dropping into the upper-30s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7PM Monday

Tuesday – rain chances should finally end as the coastal low affecting us finally pulls away to the northeast. Clouds should break up leading to a decent day with high temperatures in the low-50s. Overnight lows should be around 40°F.

Wednesday – partly sunny with highs around 50°F. Overnight lows in the mid-30s.

GFS 500 mb height, relative vorticity for 1PM Friday. We can see a distinct shortwave trough approaching from the west. Enhanced vorticity around the base of this trough should help touch of some precipitation at the surface as a cold front sweeps through.

Thursday – best day of the week with high pressure briefly building in. High temperatures again around 50°F, with overnight lows in the mid-40s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Nov 15, 2019

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Seasonable temperatures to start the weekend won’t last as a cold front dives through and Canadian high pressure builds behind it Saturday. Cooler flow from the northeast will set up as the high sets up north of us and moves east. Winds will increase in intensity as an approaching coastal storm from the south leads to a tighter pressure gradient. This storm is currently tracking well offshore. However, we may still see some rain from the outer bands of the storm Monday. Aside from Saturday, temperatures will largely range 10-15°F lower than normal during this period.

Rest of today – sunny with high temperatures in the low-50s. Overnight lows around 30°F with winds increasing.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7AM Saturday

Saturday – with high pressure in control, we should see sunny conditions, but temperatures will be cooler with steady northeast winds of 20-25 mph. High temperatures around 40°F. Overnight lows in the low-30s.

Sunday – increasing clouds with high temperatures in the low-40s. Chances for rain possibly going overnight into Monday. Low temperatures in the upper-30s.

GFS model output for 7PM Monday, depicting a glancing blow from a coastal storm moving northeast well offshore of the area.

Monday – chances for showers with high temperatures in the mid-40s. Mostly cloudy otherwise. Overnight lows around 40°F. Persistent northeast flow may lead to coastal flooding concerns.

NYC Weather Update – Nov 12, 2019

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Record setting cold is on the way mid-week. Overnight lows in the mid-20s and daytime highs hovering around freezing Wednesday will make this week feel more like January than mid-November. Luckily, this bitter cold snap will be short-lived, with temperatures rebounding back into the 50s by the end of the week.

Rest of today – temperatures will be falling through the 40s during the day. Precipitation should end as an Arctic front pushes through. Temperatures will continue dropping into the 30s throughout the evening and bottoming out in the mid-20s. Precipitation should end before it gets cold enough to produce snow. Winds will become stiff with the parent low strengthening and a tight pressure gradient forming between that and an incoming high pressure center.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7AM Wednesday

Wednesday – sunny with record low high temperatures in the low-30s as a frigid Arctic air mass takes hold. Overnight lows continue to be cold, in the upper-20s.

Thursday – temperatures start to rebound into the upper-40s as a warm front approaches and we enter the warm sector of the next storm. Return flow around the western edge of the high pressure exiting east will also assist in helping move some warmer air in. Overnight lows in the mid-30s.

  • GFS model 500 mb temperature, height and wind at 1AM Wednesday, note the closed 500 mb low and the strong troughing over much of the Northeastern US
  • By 7PM Friday, the 500 mb trough is forecast to have flattened out considerably, allowing for temperatures at this level and at the surface to rebound

Friday – the warm-up continues, with temperatures reaching back into seasonable levels in the low-50s. A moisture starved cold front passes through late bringing overnight lows back down to the low-30s

NYC Weekend Weather – Nov 8, 2019

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Very cold temperatures kick off the weekend, followed by a return to milder temperatures. The reprieve is brief though, with the outlook for next week looking equally cold, especially on the heels of another storm system possibly impacting the region Monday night through Tuesday. Behind this, a reinforcing blast of cold air will reintroduce much below average temperatures to the region. High temperatures will start off ~15°F below normal for this time of year, the moderate to just a couple degrees below normal by Veterans Day.

Rest of today – mostly sunny, strong winds from the northwest ranging 25-35 mph with higher gusts. High temperatures only in the low-40s with this cold wind. Overnight lows may approach record lows, in the upper-20s. This will be aided by winds dying down and clearing skies as the high pressure center shown below continues to build and move closer to us. This should allow for potentially strong radiational cooling before dawn.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7AM Saturday

Saturday – very cold start to the day, temperatures will struggle to climb into the low-40s, close to the record coldest high temperatures for this time of year. The plus side will be calmer winds, eventually shifting to the southwest as the high pressure above moves off to the east. This should help “warm” things up a bit, with overnight lows recovering into the mid-30s.

Sunday – much warmer with high temperatures in the low-50s despite more cloud cover, both due the influence of southwesterly flow. Overnight lows warming into the mid-40s.

  • GFS model 2 meter above ground level temperature anomalies for 7AM Saturday
  • Corresponding GFS 500 mb heights, vorticity. Troughing at the mid-levels here will allow for the continued influx of cold air into the Eastern US. Note how the western US, which is under a 500 mb ridge is expected to experience above normal temperatures.
  • Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for Nov 13-17, showing a very high probability for continued colder than average conditions for much of the Eastern US.

Monday (Veterans Day) – partly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-50s. Overnight, a system will approach from the west and could bring rain with lows bottoming out in the low-40s.