Recent weather headlines have been dominated by the heat. This will continue through most of the week, with relief not really in sight until Friday. There will be a chance for severe thunderstorms today, but otherwise, there will be little in the way of rain.
Rest of today – mostly sunny, hot, with highs in the mid-90s. Humidity will make it feel like the lower-100s. The Storm Prediction Center has placed parts of the region under a slight risk for severe weather today. This relates to what appear to be multiple line segments of strong to severe thunderstorms advancing ahead of a weak cold front that look to impact the area during the PM rush.
Tuesday – with the weak cold front above passing through, there will be some drop in humidity. However, temperatures are still expected to rise into the mid-90s under mostly sunny skies.
Wednesday – temperatures finally start to back off the mid-90s into the low-90s under mostly sunny skies.
Thursday – increasing clouds, high near 90ºF.
Drought Continues to Grip the Northeast
Drought continues to worsen and is now prevalent in many parts of the Northeast, with areas in Western New York and Massachusetts particularly hard hit.
This weekend’s weather can be summed up in one word: hot. In fact, if current forecasts hold, this upcoming stretch may see our first extended 90ºF+ heat wave. High temperatures don’t appear likely to drop below 90ºF until next Wednesday. During that time, the humidity will actually increase until a cold front breaks through late Tuesday. This will be another prime beach/upstate getaway weekend.
Rest of today – sunny with a high around 90ºF.
Friday – mostly sunny, slightly warmer with a high in the low-90s. There is a chance for strong to marginally severe thunderstorms late Friday with the passage of a cold front. Any relief from heat that this front and storms associated with it bring will be short-lived.
Saturday – high pressure quickly returns and temperatures continue to rise along with it. Highs are expected in the mid-90s with mostly sunny skies.
Sunday – a bit cooler, but humidity will increase as a warm front pushes through late on Sunday. High temperatures in the low-90s.
Monday – showers and thunderstorms are possible later Monday preceding a cold front that is forecast to pass on Tuesday. Highs will remain in the low-90s.
Above Average Temperatures to Stick Around
The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 Day and 8-14 Day temperature outlook continues to call for above normal temperatures. The heat is here to stay.
It will be a steamy, hot end to the week before the temperatures cool down a little and we get to enjoy a weekend of idyllic summer weather. Some potential for severe thunderstorms exists Thursday. A scattered thunderstorm chance also exists Friday and Saturday night, but the days look dry.
Rest of today – mostly cloudy, hot, humid, with high temperatures in the upper-80s to near 90ºF. A strong to severe thunderstorm is possible this afternoon, particularly in areas north of the city. If we do get clipped by storms in the city, we’ll be on the very southern periphery of the stronger storms, so it doesn’t seem all that likely we’ll see severe weather. Best timing for storms will be in the 3-6PM range.
Friday – with more sun, Friday is expected to be even hotter than today with highs in the low-mid 90s.
Saturday – even though a cold front will finally pass through Friday, the frontal passage will not bring relief from the heat Friday (the frontal boundary separates two airmasses of disparate dewpoints, and not temperatures). Temperatures will hold in the upper-80s to 90ºF Saturday with mostly sunny skies. It will be an ideal day for heading to the beach as there should be a sea breeze on south-facing shores resulting in 5ºF cooler temperatures.
Sunday – warm, with high temperatures in the mid-upper 80s and partly sunny skies.
After a couple of warm days to start the week, temperatures cool off as a cold front moves through later this evening. A second frontal boundary passes through tomorrow, ushering even cooler, and dry weather for the remainder of the week. Another chance for rain is possible Saturday as a weak Alberta clipper system impacts the area.
Rest of today – mostly sunny with a high in the low-mid 80s. There is a possibility for scattered showers and thunderstorms especially inland later this afternoon between 3-5PM as a cold front approaches from the west. Some of these storms could produce damaging wind gusts and small hail, but these are unlikely to impact the city and coastal areas where the air mass is more stable due to the influence cool ocean waters.
High Resolution Rapid Refresh model output for today at 3:30PM
Wednesday – with the cold front having passed through, temperatures cool off into the low-70s. The day starts out sunny but clouds will increase ahead of another frontal boundary nears in the afternoon. Ahead of this boundary, a better chance for showers and thunderstorms develops, and once again there could be some widely scattered strong-marginally severe storms.
North American Model High Resolution simulated radar output for Wednesday at 11AM.
Thursday – temperatures will range in the 50s overnight into Thursday, leading to yet another day of below average, but comfortable temperatures in the low-70s with northwest wind driven by high pressure building to the southwest over the Mississippi Valley. This will pull in a drier, fall-like airmass from Canada.
Friday – slightly warmer with highs in the low-mid 70s, mostly sunny.
Saturday – there’s a chance for some scattered showers Saturday afternoon into the overnight hours as an Alberta clipper system approaches, otherwise, partly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-70s.
Last weekend featured weather more typical of late-July for the region. This weekend, temperatures will be much cooler, and we may see some heavy rain and possibly even a marginally severe thunderstorm Sunday. Next week, temperatures remain in the below to near-normal range as we feel the impacts of a lingering low pressure over Eastern Canada.
Rest of today – cloudy, with high temperatures in the mid-70s. Areas of rain will continue pushing through the area until around 3PM this afternoon.
Saturday – the nicer of the weekend days, partly sunny with high temperatures in the low-80s. Some chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms especially north and west of the city.
Sunday – a warm front pushes through early, putting us in the warm sector prior to the approach of a cold front associated with a low pressure center over Quebec. This set up could support the development of marginally severe thunderstorms, and the training of multiple storm cells could also lead to some minor flooding. Temperatures will be in the mid-70s. Rain tapers off overnight.
Storm Prediction Center has put portions of the region under a slight chance for severe weather Sunday.
Monday – weather calms down again and temperatures go back up to around 80ºF as clouds clear up.
Tuesday – mostly sunny with a high again near 80ºF.
There is a potential for strong to severe thunderstorms today, especially for areas south and west of the city today. Stormy weather gives way to calmer, cooler conditions Wednesday before another round of rain moves in late Thursday. Cooler temperatures prevail in the short to medium term.
Rest of today – the Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of the region under a marginal to slight risk of severe weather today. These areas are largely confined to those south and west of the city. A frontal boundary is draped from west to east across the area, such that portions to the east will be in colder air north of the frontal boundary, while those areas to the west will be in a warmer area south of it. Any strong to severe thunderstorms will be confined to areas that see the warmest temperatures today, where the spread in high temperatures could be over 25ºF from eastern Long Island to Central New Jersey.
In the city, expect high temperatures in the upper-60s to low-70s with a potential for thunderstorms, some possibly with damaging winds and small hail. These storms will be coming in two rounds, one around 11AM this morning (radar returns are already showing this batch of weaker showers), and the second, stronger batch coming around 3PM.
Wednesday – temperatures cool off considerably in the wake of these storms. High temperatures will be around 60ºF tomorrow with sunny skies.
Thursday – another cool day with high temperatures in the upper-50s and increasing clouds along with an increasing chance of rain during the day into the overnight hours.
Friday – high temperatures in the upper-50s to around 60ºF with partly sunny skies.
Below Normal Temperature Trend to Continue – Rain Needed
An upcoming series of storm systems moving over the region will lead to colder air being pulled in behind them. This will result in below normal temperatures for this time of year throughout much of the next two weeks.
Due to a long stretch of dry weather, many portions of the NYC region have fallen behind normal precipitation levels for this period of the year by considerable margins. Hopefully, the rounds of rain we are forecast to receive coming up will help to prevent drought conditions from redeveloping in the area before this growing season starts in earnest.
The official start of summer was this weekend, and this week will be accompanied by decidedly summer-like weather. High temperatures for the first half of the week will be quite warm, in the mid-upper 80s, with some areas probably passing the 90º mark on Tuesday. Along with the summer-like temperatures, there will also be a chance for strong thunderstorms.
Rest of today – sunny skies will allow temperatures to rise up into the upper-80s and possibly 90 in the city. However, since humidity and dewpoints are low, it will not feel oppressively hot.
Tuesday – a cold front approaching from the west could serve as the trigger for some strong to potentially severe thunderstorms. Ahead of this cold front, continued southwesterly winds will maintain very warm temperatures in the upper-80s to low-90s in some parts.
Timing of thunderstorms looks to be in the late afternoon, possibly around the PM rush, with a line of storms moving . Warm temperatures and a humid airmass look to yield moderate SBCAPE (surface-based convective available potential energy) values in the 2000-3000 J/Kg range. This environment should support intensification for any storms that form to marginally severe limits. Correspondingly, the Storm Prediction Center has placed most of the area in a slight risk area for severe weather tomorrow, except for eastern Long Island and Connecticut.
North American model high resolution simulated radar for Tuesday, 5PM EDT
Wednesday – behind the cold front, things dry out and temperatures should cool off a bit, with high temperatures in the mid-80s.
Thursday – this will begin a period of unsettled weather that looks poised to persist through the weekend. The front that moves south of us Wednesday then stalls not too far, and remains nearly stationary starting Thursday. Several waves of low pressure are expected to move along this frontal boundary. While at this time, Thursday looks dry, cloud cover will be increasing and temperatures should be cooler, only around 80.
We will likely be experiencing one of the hottest days of the year so far, with temperatures expected to top out in the upper-80s and into the low-90s in a few spots this afternoon. The warm weather continues through Saturday, when an area of high pressure over eastern Canada brings us some relief from the heat. In terms of the weekend, Sunday will definitely be the better day, with cooler temperatures, but dry weather.
Rest of today – temperatures are expected to top out right around 90 in the city. Increasingly humid air will lead to an uncomfortable feeling day. There is some potential for thunderstorms, some possibly marginally severe, occurring in the afternoon hours as a cold front approaches from the north and west. The orientation of the frontal boundary and primary storm vector will align in such a way that training of storms could occur, leading to the same locations getting hit by multiple storm cells.
In addition, an air quality alert is active today, with PM2.5 particle being the primary driver in pushing the Air Quality Index into the low 100s (unhealthy for sensitive groups).
High Resolution Rapid Refresh model simulated radar composite for 4PM EDT.Air quality forecast for today
Friday – the cold front that pushes through today with some possible thunderstorms will stall just south of the area, then push back north through the area as a warm front Friday. This means we will not get any respite from the heat, with highs again expected to be in the upper-80s to near 90, and another chance at more thunderstorms. There will be more sun Friday than today, but atmospheric dynamics are not expected to be supportive of severe weather.
Saturday – the warm front that passes through Friday comes back yet again as a cold front as it gets dragged along by the low pressure center moving to the northeast. This means yet another chance for thunderstorms, and ahead of that, warm temperatures remaining in the upper-80s.
Sunday – the weather finally settles down and stabilizes as a high pressure center builds to the north in behind the cold front passing on Saturday. This should lead to cooler temperatures and sunny skies for Sunday, when temperatures are expected to be in the low-80s.
Monday – another frontal boundary will be making its approach from the west on Monday, however, the timing of its approach is such that chances for rain will be low on Monday. Temperatures should again be comfortable around 80.
We start the week off with some much needed rain and a noticeable cool down in temperatures. Scattered thunderstorms increase in coverage later today and transition into more widespread showers that are expected to persist into the overnight hours. The start of the week will be rainy, cloudy, and cool under the influence of a Canadian maritime airmass. By midweek, we get back into more fair conditions with the sun returning and temperatures back in the mid-70s.
Rest of today – the Storm Prediction Center has placed areas of Northeastern New Jersey in a slight risk area for severe thunderstorms later. Based on latest radar trends and the High Resolution Rapid Refresh model’s output, it would appear that thunderstorms are likely to develop over portions of New Jersey highlighted in the slight risk area, then track eastwards into the NYC metro area later this afternoon into the early evening hours. With breaks in the clouds for sun, we’ll hit temperatures in the low-80s, which when coupled with ample moisture, should support thunderstorms with the potential for heavy rain.
High Resolution Rapid Refresh model output for 8PM EST
Monday – all the activity occurring today and going into the overnight hours is associated with a cold front that is moving south into our area. As this cold front pushes through, east-northeast winds will set up, allowing a cooler, Canadian maritime airmass in. This will translate into cooler than average temperatures only in the mid-60s with showers likely throughout the day.
Tuesday – wet, cool weather continues Tuesday with highs again only in the mid-60s and the ongoing chance for rain showers throughout the day. This extended period of rain from later today into Tuesday should bring some relief to the moderate drought conditions over parts of the Northeast, with the potential for as much as 4″ of rain over the period in certain parts of the region.
Possible total rainfall over the next 48 hours
Wednesday – high pressure finally builds back in Wednesday, pushing away the rainy weather, and yielding pleasant temperatures in the low-mid 70s under partly cloudy skies.
Thursday – slightly warmer than Wednesday, with highs in the upper-70s in NYC.
Apologies for the lapse in posts last week. There was plenty to talk about with the formation and dissipation of Hurricane Fay, and with Hurricane Gonzalo developing. Gonzalo won’t be a threat to the U.S. mainland, but may wreak havoc in the vicinity of Bermuda as a low end Category 3 storm with 115-120mph sustained winds. This storm has the potential to hit Category 4.
Back to our region:
Today – we get to enjoy a very warm day for this time of the year with highs in the mid-upper 70s and sunny skies! Unfortunately, clouds will begin spreading over the area in a few hours time ahead of a system described in detail below.
Wednesday – there will be a chance of light rain in the morning, with the chance for more substantial rainfall increasing in the afternoon. Temperatures will remain mild in the mid-70s with persistent southeasterly flow channeling in warm, moist air from the south ahead of the cold front and storm system that was responsible for a severe weather outbreak in parts of the Midwest and Southeast earlier this week.
Thursday – will be the main event. Lucky for us, the storm system coming at us won’t be bringing severe weather, however, a thunderstorm or two is not out of the question. The main issue for us will be the risk of flooding from this slow moving system. Forecast models show training of storm cells, meaning the same areas will get hit repeatedly or continuously with moderate rain showers. Rain will likely be falling throughout the entirety of the day Thursday with little or no breaks. Rainfall totals of nearly 2″+ could lead to some minor flooding. However, the rain is welcome since we are nearly 3″ below average for rainfall. Temperatures should again remain on the warm side with highs in the mid-70s.
NAM high resolution model output for Thursday, Oct 16 @5PM – note the bright blue and purples stretched over the area, indicating bands of heavier rainPrecipitation total forecast for 8PM Wednesday-8PM Thursday. Nearly 2″ for the NYC area.
Friday – things settle down quickly as a brief window of calm weather enters the picture. Temperatures will be cooler in the wake of the cold front with west winds and highs in the lower 70s.
