Category Archives: Snow

NYC Weather Update – Dec 4, 2017

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The biggest weather headline for the beginning to mid-week period will be the passage of a warm front and then a robust cold front. This will bring us a dramatic swing in temperatures along with moderate to heavy rain overnight Tuesday. Late in the week, our eyes turn towards a developing coastal low, with temperatures well within the range to support snow, there’s a chance for us to see our first accumulating snows of the season this weekend.

Rest of today – mostly sunny with high temperatures around 50°F. High pressure remains in control during the day while it moves offshore.

Tuesday – cloudy with much warmer high temperatures nearing 60°F behind the passage of a warm front in the early morning hours. We’ll be in the warm sector of a low that will be centered well north of us in Ontario, and warm air will flow in from the southwest ahead of a cold front. Rain chances increasing during the day, with the best chances for rain starting in the afternoon. Rain continues overnight, moderate to heavy at times.

Wednesday – rain chances continue into the morning. Clearing conditions, with winds turning to the winds once the cold front clears our area. High temperatures peak at around 50°F but fall during the day.

Thursday – noticeably colder, with overnight lows in the low-30s. High temperatures in the mid-40s, a couple degrees cooler than normal for this time of year.

 

Weekend Snow?

Model runs over the past couple days suggest the possibility for multiple storm systems that could bring snow over the weekend. The more significant of these would be a possible coastal storm. However, the latest model runs suggest this storm would take a track too far offshore to affect us with significant precipitation. A second, weaker disturbance could move through Sunday as well. Temperatures will definitely be cold enough to support snow, especially during overnight hours. Later in the week, we should see clearer signals about whether we’ll get our first accumulating snow this season during the weekend.

NYC Blizzard Update #2 – Mar 13, 2017

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The track of the imminent nor’easter and blizzard has continue to trend west of earlier model runs. This has introduced increasing uncertainty as to overall snowfall totals along the immediate coastal areas along with possible wintry mix/freezing rain. On the other hand, confidence is increasing in heavy snow for areas north and west of the city, with snowfall totals 18″+ looking likely.

Impacts – heavy snow north and west of the city, snowfall accumulations in the interior 16-20″+ looking likely. Sharp gradient in the heaviest snowfall totals approaching the coast where wintry mix, freezing rain, and even plain rain could mix in during the early afternoon Tuesday. The exact location of the extent of warm air intrusion off the ocean will ultimately determine the difference between routine totals over 1 foot and areas that receive much lower snowfall totals. The difference in some cases could be a matter of mere miles. This line could fall in and around NYC itself. Still expecting a period of blizzard or near blizzard conditions for NYC during the course of this storm even if a transition to mixed precipitation does occur. Snowfall totals could still pile up close to a foot or over prior to this transition. The possibility of freezing rain and ice introduces an additional hazard on the roads and when coupled with strong winds of 30-35mph and gusts 45mph+ could result in power outages.

Timing – light snow should begin to fall early into the overnight hours, progressively growing in intensity. In the city, overnight accumulations of 3-6″ possible, with a sharp increase in totals north and west. Heavy snow with sleet and wintry mix during the morning and early afternoon in the city, all snow in points north and west. Blowing and drifting snow with blizzard conditions possible. Snow begins to wind down during the evening hours.

Caveats – any further movement of the storm track west would result in drastically lower snowfall totals for NYC and points east along the coast. Correspondingly, an eastward shift of the storm track would put NYC itself squarely in the bullseye for the heaviest snows.

NYC Blizzard Update – Mar 13, 2017

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Classic major nor’easter to bring blizzard conditions to a large swath of the Northeast Tuesday just days from the official start of spring. Areas in and around NYC likely to see snowfall accumulations of over 1 foot, locally higher. This may end up being one of the biggest snowstorms/blizzards in history for the month of March in NYC.

Rest of today – the proverbial calm before the storm. Mostly sunny, cold, with high temperatures in the low-30s.

Tuesday – a major late season nor’easter will bring heavy snow and blizzard conditions to the area. Blizzard warning in effect for the entirety of Tuesday. Snow starts falling overnight into Tuesday. Heaviest snows forecast to begin around the morning rush and continue through most of the day. Blizzard conditions expected on the coast with steady north to northeast winds 30-35mph and gusts over 45mph. Visibility near zero at times. High temperatures at or below freezing. Widespread accumulations over 1 foot and approaching or exceeding 18″ expected around the NYC metro area. Details on the storm at the end of this post.

Wednesday – lingering chance for snow showers early with wrap around moisture on the backside of the departing nor’easter. Mostly cloudy with a high near freezing.

Thursday – skies clearing, high temperatures in the low-mid 30s.

 

Major Blizzard to Impact the NYC Region

Winter Storm Stella, as the Weather Channel refers to it, is set to bring widespread heavy snow to the area beginning overnight Monday and continuing throughout the day Tuesday.

Impacts – Snow accumulations over 1 foot, in many cases approaching 18″. Locally higher amounts, with some areas possibly approaching 2 feet. Heavy snow and blowing snow during the day Tuesday. Snowfall rates 2-4″ per hour and possibly higher in the heaviest snow bands possible. Thundersnow may accompany the strongest snow bands. Blowing and drifting snow with steady northeast winds 30-35mph and gusts 45-50mph will contribute to blizzard conditions with near zero visibility at times. East and northeast facing shorelines may experience moderate coastal flooding during high tide cycles. Heavy, wet snow at the coast combined with high winds may lead to power outages. Hazardous travel conditions, severe disruptions to aviation likely. High confidence in storm total snowfall at this point, but there is still uncertainty about whether and where mixing could occur.

Timing – Snow begins early in the overnight hours Tuesday. Light accumulations of 2-4″ possible by daybreak. Heavy snow likely beginning during the morning rush hour and continuing through most of the work day, as well as into the evening rush hour. Winds quickly intensifying from the morning and staying steady through the evening hours. Heaviest snow tapers off in the early evening hours, but snow showers could continue overnight. Winds remain strong overnight into Wednesday. Conditions improve going into the morning Wednesday.

Discussion – an area of low pressure that had its origins in the Pacific has made its way across the northern US, impacting the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest with snow. This storm system will phase with a secondary, coastal low pressure system that is currently moving up the coast from the Southeast. As these storms merge, the coastal low will undergo rapid intensification and cyclogenesis, becoming a strong Nor’easter. This storm will be drawing on subtropical moisture, and will encounter an airmass that will be quite cold due to the presence of an Arctic high pressure system prior to the storm’s passage. These ingredients will set the stage for a classic major blizzard for the Northeast late in the winter season, only days from spring.

As always, uncertainty remains about the exact location of the heaviest snow bands with this storm. Areas that are impacted by these bands can easily rack up several more inches than surrounding areas that are spared. The storm is expected to track west of the 40°N/70°W benchmark. However, during the last model runs, the storm track has trended north and west, increasing the chances for the city itself to see the heaviest snow, in addition to areas north and west. If this track shifts west some more, warmer air off the ocean wrapping into the core of the storm from the south could induce mixed precipitation with rain cutting down on totals in the city and Long Island. If the track shifts east, heavier snow would fall over points east of the city.

NYC Weekend Weather – Mar 09, 2017

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Above average temperatures today give way to accumulating snow Friday. Very cold air then rushes in for the weekend, much along the lines of last weekend. This time around, cold air will persist, as a polar vortex is set to take hold of the East Coast. With this cold air in place, there is potential for a significant snowstorm in the form of a Nor’easter/coastal storm early to mid-week next week.

Rest of today – quite warm still with high temperatures remaining steady around the mid-50s. Breezy with west wind between 15-20mph under clear skies. Increasing clouds towards nightfall.

Friday – a rain/snow mix is anticipated to begin falling overnight, steadily transitioning to all snow by daybreak. This looks to be a messy commute. A cold front slides south of the area and a strengthening low pressure center moves along this frontal boundary, bringing us this snow. Due to warm temperatures in preceding days, snow will have a hard time sticking at first, but temperatures will remain cold enough throughout this event to yield likely snow accumulations of 3-5″.

Saturday – temperatures will remain well below normal as winds shift to the northwest following the passage of the cold front and storm system above. Breezy with winds around 15-20mph and decreasing clouds. High temperatures will struggle to hit freezing. Overnight lows leading into Saturday and then overnight into Sunday only in the teens.

Sunday – cold, sunny, with high temperature again barely at or above freezing. Spring forward occurs early Sunday, set your clocks ahead and get ready for more sunshine late in the day (not that it’ll help make things warmer right now).

 

Winter Not Giving Up – Possible Snowstorm Next Week

The predominant weather pattern thus far this winter has been one in which the jet stream has taken on an orientation that favors above average warmth over the eastern half of the US. Just as we turn the corner towards spring, it appears we are about to get slammed with a polar vortex and weather pattern more typical of February. While the cold itself will be enough to put a damper on spring, the real headline is the possibility for a significant late-season snowstorm in the form of a Nor’easter some time early to mid-week next week. Will keep you all updated on this as more data becomes available in the coming days.

NYC Weekend Weather – Mar 3, 2017

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The record breaking warmth of only a couple days ago seems like ancient history. We could see some snow flurries to kick off the weekend, then a very cold airmass takes hold with temperatures well below normal. Another warm up is in store to start next week.

Rest of today – mostly sunny to clear skies to start. High temperatures near 40°F. Later in the day, and into the evening hours, an arctic front is forecast to pass through. Snow showers are anticipated to accompany this frontal boundary, though they should not result in any appreciable accumulation.

Saturday – behind the passage of this arctic front, winds shift to the northwest and pick up into the 15-25mph range, with stronger gusts. High temperatures will struggle to top freezing even with lots of sun, as overnight lows will be around 20°F. Wind chills will be in the teens or lower.

Sunday – overnight into Sunday, low temperatures are expected to drop into the teens. Sunny conditions prevail, with slightly warmer temperatures in the mid-30s.

Monday – a warm front will push through, finally breaking the spell of very cold weather. Temperatures should warm up into the upper-40s to near 50°F as clouds increase.

NYC Weekend Weather – Feb 10, 2017

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An eventful week of weather continues into the weekend, though not to the same degree of intensity. We will see another chance for snow, as well as rain this weekend. Temperatures rebound back to around or slightly above normal for the weekend. Looking ahead, there are some signals at another possible strong storm a couple weeks out, but it’s much to early to be certain.

Rest of today – cold, windy, sunny with areas of blowing snow. High temperatures below normal around 30ºF. Wind chills in the teens. Overnight tonight, we could pick up a light coating of fresh snow from a fast moving, and relatively weak storm system.

Below are some reported snowfall totals from yesterday’s coastal storm. As you’ll see, there was a fairly sharp cutoff between areas that received 9″ or more of snow. Long Island, Connecticut, and parts of the Hudson Valley got the largest totals. This was largely due to the fact that the most intense bands of heavy snow spent more time parked over these areas than it did in the city.

Saturday – conditions improving, along with warmer temperatures in the mid-40s under mostly cloudy skies.

Sunday – another storm system moves in from the Ohio Valley. This will bring a mixture of precipitation to the Northeast. Luckily, with high temperatures in the low-40s, we will see all rain.

Monday – winds pick up behind the departure of the storm system above, and skies should clear up as well. Temperatures should again be in the low-40s.

 

NYC Snowstorm Update – Feb 08, 2017

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We’re in for a wild ride over the course of the next 24 hours as our weather goes from possibly record-breaking warmth to what is expected to be the most significant winter storm so far this season. Significant snow accumulations over 6″ and possibly as much as a foot are expected across the region, resulting in a winter storm warning for all of the NYC metro region.

 

Timing

Judging by the amount of sun we’re getting, temperatures will likely hit record-breaking levels in the low-60s in the city today. They will drop steadily to around 50ºF by the evening commute as a cold front pushes through and Arctic air flows in from the north. Overnight, temperatures will continue falling rapidly to around freezing. Precipitation is expected to begin around 3-4AM Thursday here in the city and continue through the early afternoon. Unfortunately, the timing of the heaviest precipitation does look to bring significant impacts to the morning commute.

North American High Resolution simulated radar 1km resolution, tomorrow at 8AM.

 

Impacts

Rain/snow mix to start, but by the morning rush, expecting all snow through the region. Heavy snow at times possibly reaching 1-2″/hr. Some thundersnow could occur. Hazardous travel conditions during the morning rush as plows will have trouble keeping roads clear with traffic and the moderate to heavy snow. Gusty winds could produce near-blizzard conditions with low visibility.

 

Snowfall Totals

Here are some graphics for snowfall totals from our local National Weather Service Forecast office. The general forecast calls for 6″-12″ in the city. The exact extent of totals will depend, as is generally the case with this type of storm, on where the heaviest snow bands set up and for how long they sit over an any given area.

Probabilities for 4″+ and 6″+ of snow respectively

 

Discussion

An shortwave that’s made its way rapidly across the country from the Pacific will move along the cold front that is pushing through today. As it does so, it will spawn a secondary low off the Mid-Atlantic that will strengthen rapidly as it moves over open water. At the same time, plenty of cold air will wrap around the deepening coastal low with high pressure to the west. This will put in place all the ingredients for a classic coastal winter storm for this area. The only thing keeping this storm from being a major blizzard with snowfall totals exceeding 2 feet is the fairly quick pace that it’s expected to move at.

This coastal storm will drive the expected heavy snows tomorrow. Its track is expected to take it just outside the 40ºN 70ºW benchmark, a spot that from a climatological perspective has translated to heavy snow storms for this region.

 

NYC Weather Update – Feb 06, 2017

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The weather story of this week will be some wild temperature swings as we encounter two storm systems Wednesday and Thursday.

Rest of today – mostly sunny to clear skies with high temperatures topping out in the low-40s.

Tuesday – temperatures start to warm up with an approaching warm front. A low pressure system north of us will pull lots of warm, moist air ahead of it as it moves through the region. High temperatures are expected to hit the low-50s with periods of rain throughout the day.

Wednesday – overnight, temperatures will actually rise due to the influence of warm air flowing into the area following the passage of the aforementioned warm front. Rain should end by the morning commute, giving us a chance to break some record high temperatures in the area. High temperatures are expected to range in the upper-50s to the low-60s with any significant breaks of sun.

Thursday – the warmup does not last. As the low pressure system above continues to track northeast across Quebec, a secondary low pressure center will form along a trailing cold front attached to this first low. High temperatures will only be in the low-30s, almost 30ºF cooler than Wednesday. Overnight from Wednesday to Thursday, it should get cold enough for the secondary low pressure center to spark some accumulating snows in the city. Snowfall totals are expected to be light, 1-3″ max in the city.

 

NYC Weather Update – Jan 30, 2017

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As we open February, temperatures will be appropriately cold and seasonable for this time of year. We have a chance for some light snow accumulation Tuesday with a passing clipper system. Looking into the long-term, some forecast models are indicating the possibility of a couple coastal storms that could be snowmakers next week.

Rest of today – mostly sunny with high temperatures peaking in the mid-30. Steady northwest wind around 15mph will produce wind chills below freezing.

Tuesday – high again in the mid-30s, but with snow expected in particular in the afternoon hours with an advancing clipper system and cold front. Snow accumulations are not expected to exceed 1 inch at this time.

Wednesday – brief rebound in temperatures into the mid-40s, with skies beginning to clear during the day.

Thursday – temperatures drop back to seasonable levels in the mid-30s.

 

More Significant Snows Ahead?

Looking ahead at Monday after the Superbowl, there appears to be a chance for a more significant snowmaker in the form of a coastal low. The forecast on this will become more clear as the week draws to a close.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jan 13, 2016

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The beginning of the weekend will be marked by a return to seasonable temperatures after the warm spell we just experienced. Temperatures moderate for the second half of the weekend reach back into above normal territory to start next week.

Rest of today – temperatures dropping from the mid-40s into the mid-20s overnight. Clouds increase as a frontal system far to our south begins to influence our weather.

Saturday – high temperatures only in the low-mid 30s. A small chance of snow in the afternoon though we’re really only on the fringe of the area of influence of a largely stationary front far to our south. Mostly cloudy skies otherwise.

Sunday – skies clear and temperatures rise back up to around 40ºF. High pressure continues to build and move east, allowing winds to turn to the south and southwest bringing warmer air our way.

Monday (MLK Day) – should be a pleasant day for anyone who’s out volunteering on this holiday. Sunny with high temperatures in the low-40s.