Category Archives: Snow

NYC Weather Update – Feb 22, 2016

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This week features an active weather pattern with precipitation possible from Tuesday evening through parts of Thursday. Temperatures start off below normal before rising above normal for Wednesday and Thursday, then finally dropping below normal again to end the week. A cooler than normal trend will persist into the beginning of March.

Rest of today – mostly clear with high temperatures in the mid-upper 40s.

Tuesday – the weaker of two storm systems to affect the region this week will approach from the south. Chances for precipitation will increase through the afternoon and become likely overnight. Temperature profiles at the start of the event will support light rain/snow mix before transitioning to all rain for the city overnight. High temperatures should top off in the upper-30s.

Wednesday – rain likely throughout the day, increasing in coverage and intensity through the morning into the afternoon. High temperatures will be warm in the upper-40s.

Thursday – the heaviest rains with this storm system are forecast to occur during the overnight hours Wednesday going into Thursday. Showers are still possible Thursday morning with most precipitation ending during the afternoon. A warm front will pass Wednesday night, which will help support mild temperatures in mid-50s.

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Friday – a trailing cold front from the storm above passes through late Thursday, and in the wake of this cold front, skies will start clearing Friday with temperatures cooling off, and highs only around 40ºF.

Cooler to End February

A cooler than normal temperature trend is likely to occur to end the month and to start March.

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NYC Weekend Weather – Feb 11, 2016

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The weather headline for this weekend will be bitterly cold temperatures that may have you reconsidering any plans to be outdoors during Valentine’s Day. The incoming airmass will definitely be the coldest of the year and the season thus far. The good news for us is that this Arctic airmass does not stick around for long, with temperatures expected to rebound nicely by early-mid week next week.

Rest of today – will be a preview of the cold coming our way with temperatures only topping out in the upper-20s. Scattered snow showers are possible (some of these snow showers are actually remnants of lake effect snows occurring hundreds of miles to our north and west). With west winds blowing in the 20-30mph range, wind chill will make it feel like 15-20ºF out there.

Friday – an Arctic cold front swings through overnight into Friday. Overnight lows will be in the upper-teens in the city and in the low-teens further north and west. High temperatures should rest in the mid-20s with increasing cloud cover as another impulse of energy makes its way in for Saturday.

Saturday – there will be a slight chance for snow showers overnight Friday into Saturday. Low temperatures will be only in the mid-teens, and with winds expected to pick up, wind chill values will hover in the single digits. Daytime highs Saturday will struggle to break 20ºF in the city. Northwest winds 25-30mph will lead to wind chills again only in the teens. As an impulse of energy pushes through Saturday morning, there may be some scattered snow showers before skies clear and things dry out.

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Sunday – overnight lows Saturday into Sunday are going to be the coldest we’ve seen all year, with a low temperature in the city forecast at a mere 2ºF! Wind chill advisories will likely be posted for this period, with widespread below zero wind chills likely. Temperatures don’t rebound much during the day Sunday, with high temperatures only in the upper-teens.

Monday (President’s Day) – this is when the recovery in temperatures begins with high temperatures expected to go back up to around freezing. The next storm system looks like it will be moving through Tuesday, but it will also be accompanied by a much warmer airmass.

Warming Up Next Week

40ºF doesn’t sound all that warm, but you’ll welcome that next week as we see a return to above normal temperatures.

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NYC Weather Update – Feb 8, 2016

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The groundhogs may end up being right, and we could get an early spring this year, but winter won’t be relinquishing its grasp this week. Multiple storms will be impacting the area throughout the first half of the week, resulting in multiple rounds of snow up through Wednesday. Luckily for us, this snow is expected to be mostly on the light side for NYC, although areas east of the city could be getting 8-10″ of snow just with today’s storm. So, if you like winter weather, and snow that you don’t have to shovel, this is your week.

Rest of today – snow showers have started falling over the city in the last hour or so. Light accumulations of 2-3″ maximum are expected in the city, with much higher totals as you move east. The city is only going to get brushed by the western fringe of this coastal storm that’s passing, and snow should taper off by 1PM today. In a very similar setup to last week’s storm, areas east of the city will get the bulk of the snow today. Temperatures will be gradually dropping during the day into the low-30s with evaporative

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Tuesday – a second storm system forms offshore of the Mid-Atlantic overnight, and spins up another round of snow for us tomorrow. Snow should start falling after daybreak, with another 1-2″ possible here in the city. High temperatures should top out in the low-30s.

Wednesday – unsettled weather continues Wednesday with the potential for more light snow during the day, although temperatures could be a little warmer in the upper-30s.

Thursday – things finally start calming down with the chances for snow diminishing, though skies will still be cloudy with high temperatures near freezing.

After Thursday, we are expecting a deep freeze with the passage of an Arctic front going into the weekend.

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NYC Weekend Weather – Feb 4, 2016

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We have had a very warm start to the month of February, and it sure does feel like the groundhogs were right that there will an early spring. Even if that is to be the case, we are still technically in the depths of winter, and the weather over the next couple of weeks will remind us of that fact. The end of this week and this weekend will be relatively quiet on the weather front, but looking ahead at the beginning of next week, there is a potential for a coastal storm that could bring us some more snow.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy with some breaks of sun, warm but with temperatures dropping through the 50s during the day.

Friday – the cold front that passed through yesterday will stall out at sea, but close enough to us that another impulse of low pressure moving along it could bring some light snow to southern and eastern portions of the NYC region. Light, wet, accumulating snow is possible for NYC and Long Island. Depending on the storm track, some areas of eastern Long Island could pick up 3″, while areas west closer to the city see a coating to an inch overnight. During the day Friday, temperatures will cool off noticeably into the low-40s and the winds will pick up as skies clear.

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Saturday – a nice day, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the low-mid 40s.

Sunday – essentially a clone of Saturday in terms of sensible weather, mostly sunny, highs in the low-mid 40s.

 

Cooling Off the Next Couple Weeks

It is technically supposed to be the coldest stretch of the year climatologically, so it makes sense that there should be some cooler temperatures coming. In fact, Climate Prediction Center does have normal to below normal temperatures (normal would be in the mid-30s) for the area the next couple of weeks.

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NYC Weekend Weather – Jan 29, 2016

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You’d be forgiven if you didn’t believe that a record-setting Nor’easter blizzard happened less than a week ago. A week of much above average temperatures and warm weather has quickly melted more than half of the snowpack that was left after the blizzard dropped 26.8″ (.1″ short of the all time record) in Central Park, breaking the single day storm total snowfall record with a new high of 26.6″. Except, of course, those huge snow mounds that are trapping your parked car. Warm weather, with high temperatures near or above 50ºF this weekend means that even more of this snow will melt away. Whatever’s left will likely be completely washed away mid-week next week when we’re expected to hit temperatures near 60ºF with thunderstorms possible.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy with a high near 40ºF. A passing rain/snow shower caused by a weak passing disturbance in the upper atmosphere is possible this afternoon around 1PM.

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Saturday – brief clearing caused by an area of high pressure overnight will give way again to increasing clouds with high temperatures around 40ºF again.

Sunday – the high pressure moves quickly off to our east Sunday, allowing for clockwise return flow from the southwest to bring in warmer temperatures in the upper 40s under partly sunny skies.

Monday – warm temperatures continue with highs topping out around 50ºF and partly sunny skies.

 

Cooldown Coming

Don’t get too used to the warm temperatures because after mid-week next week, cold air returns to the Eastern United States for a period.

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Blizzard Brings Drought Relief

One of the best parts about this blizzard was that it brought along some much needed precipitation precisely to areas of the region that most needed it. As you’ll see below, since the blizzard past the area of New York State experiencing moderate drought has decreased from 6.80% to 2.04%, largely because areas of moderate drought in the NYC region and Long Island have gotten slammed with huge amounts of snow that will be replenishing the local watersheds as it melts.

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NYC Weekend Weather – Nor’easter Inbound – Jan 21, 2016

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All eyes turn towards this weekend’s Nor’easter which will bring us the most snow we’ve seen since last winter. Confidence is growing that NYC and points south could receive over a foot of snow by Sunday. In addition, forecasters anticipate that this storm will bring sustained winds of 30mph to coastal areas with gusts as high as 40-60mph leading to whiteout blizzard conditions. However, it is important to not, even at this point, 48 hours from the start of this event, that a good deal of uncertainty remains about these forecast snow totals.

Rest of today – mostly clear with high temperatures reaching into the mid-30s but a northwest wind in the 15mph range making it feel colder.

Friday – slightly cooler with highs in the low-mid 30s, clouds I increasing through the day as the headline storm for the weekend approaches.

Saturday – snow should begin falling from southwest to northeast overnight Friday and continue throughout the day Saturday. Sustained northeast winds 25mph-30mph could lead to drifting and blowing snow, making for hazardous teavel conditions. Some potential exists that enough warmer air wraps into the storm off the Atlantic that some areas see a changeover to a rain/sleet/snow mix in the afternoon before transitioning back to all snow Saturday night. Total daytime accumulations are currently forecast between 3-7″. Overnight accumulations could be in the 4-8″ range.

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Minimum snowfall for this Nor’easter
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Most likely snowfall totals
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Maximum snowfall possible with this storm


Sunday – some lingering snow showers are possible Sunday morning but conditions should improve rapidly as cloud cover decreases with the storm exiting to our east. High temperatures are expected to be in the mid-30s.

Monday – warmer with high temperatures in the mid-30s and sunny skies.

Complicating Factors for Forecasting the Nor’easter

  • Model divergence – European models favor a solution that has the storm moving quicker and further south than US based models. This scenario would result in minimal snow for NYC, hence why the minimum snow forecast is only 2″.
  • Unpredictable snow bands – as we are all too aware from last year’s fiasco of subway shutdowns in anticipation for a blizzard that didn’t materialize, when it comes to Nor’easter type storms, where, when, and for how long deformation banding features (heavy bands of snow) set up will make or break a snowfall total forecast in either direction. However, these types of mesoscale banding features are not easy to predict with confidence before they actually start forming. Should parts of our region fall under one of these banding features where snow could be falling at rates of 1″+ per hour, you could easily see total snowfall forecasts be shattered.
  • Intrusion of warm air – if enough warm air works its way into this storm off the warm waters of the Atlantic (where above normal temperatures thus far this winter have kept the sea surface temperatures abnormally warm), then some areas could see a rain/sleet mix for periods of time. Forecasters are overall confident the window for this mixing is small enough that overall totals won’t be dented too much, though.
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The closer this storm center tracks to the 40ºN 70ºW benchmark, the better the chances become for our are to get a lot of snow. Climatologically, Nor’easters that track closest to this benchmark have been the biggest snowmakers for the NYC region.

 

NYC Weather Update – Jan 18, 2016

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Weather to start this week will be rather uneventful, predominantly featuring windy, cold days, but little in the way of precipitation. We did get our first dusting of snow so far this winter in the city last night, and the potential for significantly more exists with a possible Nor’easter coming this weekend. As always, even though we’re within a week of this event, our local forecast office is only forecasting with 30% confidence due to the large changes in impact that even small fluctuations in storm track and intensity could bring.

Rest of today – we’ve already hit high temperatures for the day around 30ºF. A tight pressure gradient is causing breezy west winds near 20mph translating to wind chill values in the 10-15ºF range.

Tuesday – basically a repeat of today, but with slightly stronger winds. High temperatures will be in the upper-20s to around 30ºF with west winds in the 20-25mph leading to wind chills in the single digits to low teens under mostly sunny skies.

Wednesday – warmer, with high temperatures closer to normal in the mid-30s, calmer winds and sunny skies. There could be some flurries Wednesday night with a passing clipper system, but no accumulation is expected in the city.

Thursday – mostly sunny again with high temperatures in the mid-30s.

 

Possible Nor’easter This Friday – Saturday

Looking ahead towards the end of the week, there is a possibility for the first significant snowfall event in the NYC region thus far this winter. Forecasters are keeping close tabs on the possible formation of a classic Nor’easter towards the end of this week. It is important to stress that even at this point in time, there’s still considerable uncertainty about how this scenario will unfold. A deviation in the track of this coastal low too far north would result in a mainly rain event along the coast, while a deviation too far south would mean significantly less precipitation. If this scenario plays out under optimal conditions, our region would be in the northwest quadrant of this low, an area that favors the development of heavy snow. Even then, as was the case a couple winters ago, slight changes to the track and position of the heaviest snow bands could mean the difference between 5″ of snow or over a foot. Stay tuned for updates.

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NYC Weather Update – Jan 11, 2016

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This week will feature below normal temperatures for the most part, with a chance at some snow showers for the first time this winter coming along with an Alberta clipper type system tomorrow afternoon into the overnight hours. Later on this week into the weekend, we are looking at a more potent and complex storm system that could bring a mix of precipitation to the area.

Rest of today – mostly sunny with scattered clouds and a high temperature in the mid-30s. A breezy day with west winds in the 15-20mph range.

Tuesday – partly sunny to start the day, with high temperatures hitting the upper-30s to about 40ºF. Snow flurries/rain could mix together in the afternoon. As temperatures drop after sunset, precipitation should transition to all snow. Due to the quick moving nature of this clipper system, we’re not really expecting any accumulating snow.

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Wednesday – following the passage of the clipper system, winds pick up again from the west in the 15-20mph range, delivering a cold day with partly sunny skies and high temperatures right about freezing.

Thursday – slightly warmer, with high temperatures in the mid-30s, and a calmer wind so not as much of a biting cold.

NYC Weather Update – Dec 28, 2015

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After an absurdly warm start to the winter, we are about to get a dose of proper weather for this time of year. While temperatures this week and the first half of January will still above normal in many cases, they will be considerably cooler than December and be closer to normal than not. This week, we start with a messy and complex storm (the same that spawned deadly tornadoes in Texas and has brought blizzard conditions to New Mexico, and an ice storm to Oklahoma) that affects the area tonight into Tuesday with a mix of rain, sleet, freezing rain, and snow, depending on how far north you are. Yet another round rain and snow further north from the city is possible Wednesday.

Rest of today – seasonably cool with high temperatures only in the low-mid 40s. Increasing clouds ahead of a warm front that will be the focus for the precipitation later tonight. Things get interesting overnight as precipitation begins to spread over the area from southwest to northeast. Near the coast, surface temperatures are expected to remain warm enough (upper-30s) to largely preclude the possibility of significant wintry precipitation, however, sleet could mix in with rain to at the start of this storm before things shift over to all rain. Further west and north will be another story, with areas expecting anything between .25″ of ice to 2-4″ of snow/sleet accumulation before rain starts falling.

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Tuesday – as temperatures warm with daybreak, wintry precipitation should transition entirely to rain. Rain is expected to last throughout most of the morning into the early afternoon hours. East winds ahead of the warm front mentioned above will be in the 15-20mph range before shifting to the north. High temperatures in the city are expected to hit the upper-40s to around 50ºF.

Wednesday – we’ll get another shot at rain as the cold front railing the warm front pictured above pushes through late on Wednesday into the overnight hours. Despite increasing clouds, forecasts still call for high temperatures in the low-50s.

Thursday – a lingering chance of rain remains on the backside of the cold front. High temperatures are expected to be about the same as Wednesday near 50.

NYC Weekend Weather – Dec 18, 2015

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We get a taste of cool weather this weekend, with high temperatures at or slightly below normal for Saturday and Sunday, before we rebound strongly into much above average and possibly record-breaking warmth once again by mid-week next week. Saturday in particular will be feel quite brisk, with a stiff wind from the west dropping wind chills into the 30s. There could even be a couple snow flurries north and west of the city!

Rest of today – mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies with high temperatures hovering in the mid-50s. Temperatures will fall rapidly to near freezing in the city overnight.

Saturday – the low pressure system that was responsible for the soaking rains Thursday will continue to intensify as it moves over the Canadian Maritimes Saturday. As a high pressure center builds to the south, a tightening pressure gradient will yield stiff winds in the 15-25mph range on Saturday. This, combined with a blast of cold air behind the cold front that passed yesterday, will result in high temperatures only in the low-40s, with wind chills making it feel like the 30s throughout the day. There could be enough instability in the atmosphere to spark a couple flurries over the interior!

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Sunday – high pressure will remain in control Sunday, so expect sunny skies, and with the high pressure center closer to us, the pressure gradient will diminish. Winds should likewise calm down, and it will feel considerably less raw with high temperatures in the mid-40s.

Monday – temperatures will jump into the low-mid 50s as the high pressure above moves to our east and return flow of warmer air from the south and southwest begins to take hold.

 

White Christmas? Not a chance.

Looking ahead at the week of Christmas coming up – not only will there be no chance of a white Christmas on the Eastern Seaboard, we could be looking at record-breaking warmth again with high temperatures in the low-mid 60s! The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook and 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook are both strongly confident (> 90% probability) that we will see warmer than average temperatures.

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