Category Archives: Storms

NYC Weather Update – Aug 15, 2016

August 15, 2016Climate, Drought, NYC, Storms, Thunderstorms, Weather Updatecold front, drought, new york city weather, new york city wx, nyc weather, nyc wx, rain, stationary front, thunderstorms, warm front, weatherLei Zhao

The scorching heat from the weekend isn’t completely gone to start the week. In general, the weather will be cooler than last week, though we’re still expecting above average temperatures for this period. Luckily, we’ve gotten some rain from the extended period of unsettled weather last week and over the weekend, which is helping to ameliorate drought conditions over the region.

Rest of today – high temperatures around 90ºF with a heat advisory in effect. It would appear that a round of rain and/or thunderstorms is headed towards the area around 8PM tonight.

Tuesday – a nearly stationary front will allow for some showers and thunderstorms to develop in the region, particularly in the afternoon hours. Only a tad cooler with high temperatures in the upper-80s under mostly cloudy skies.

Wednesday – the stationary front mentioned above will lift north eventually as a warm front. This will set the stage for some possibly strong thunderstorms on Wednesday as a trailing cold front makes its push into the area. High temperatures will again be in the upper-80s with partly sunny skies.

Thursday – with a cold front finally moving through, we should see an end to the rain chance, and temperatures in the upper-80s under mostly sunny skies, but with a drier, less humid feel.

Drought Conditions Improving?

The near-term outlook for temperature and precipitation from the Climate Prediction Center both point to above average trends.

Despite warm temperatures, the last week of multiple rounds of rain has helped improve drought conditions in some portions of the region. You’ll see in the second graphic below, due to the rains both up to this point and that are forecast, drought removal might happen for much of the Southeaster New York area in the next month. This includes NYC but excludes Long Island, where a severe drought continues.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jul 28, 2016

July 28, 2016Climate, Drought, Flooding, NYC, Rain, Snow, Storms, Thunderstorms, Weather Update, Weekenddrought, flash flooding, flooding, high pressure, low pressure, new york city weekend weather, new york city weekend wx, nyc weather, nyc weekend weather, nyc weekend wx, rain, thunderstorms, tstorms, weatherLei Zhao

We finally get a break from the heat along with some much needed rain in the next few days. Saturday looks to be the best day of the weekend. High temperatures this weekend will range anywhere between 15-20ºF cooler than last weekend.

Overnight – lows in the mid-70s as a low pressure center passes almost directly over NYC. Because the low will be right over us, the main area of the heaviest rain will remain north of the city.

Friday – showers punctuated by periods of steady, heavier rain as bands of rain develop and wrap around the low pressure center as it tracks east. High temperatures in the low-80s with overcast skies. This low pressure system will thrive off the humid, tropical airmass in place over the region. A flash flood watch has been issued to reflect the possibility of some areas receiving 1-2″/hour rains. Embedded thunderstorms are possible, but are unlikely to reach severe limits. The bulk of the rain will fall overnight into the morning hours, and should begin tapering off in the afternoon from west to east.

Saturday – high pressure passes briefly giving us a mostly dry day with partly sunny skies with highs in the mid-80s.

Sunday – another disturbance pushes through from the south providing more chances for rain and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy with highs in the low-80s otherwise.

Monday – skies gradually clear and temperatures warm back into the low-mid 80s.

Tuesday – warm and sunny with highs again in the mid-80s

Drought Conditions Forecast to Persist

Despite the rains this weekend, many parts of the area remain under a moderate drought, having received only about 25% of normal precipitation for this past month. The outlook for the season calls for persistence of drought conditions as below normal to normal precipitation will be insufficient to break the drought.

NYC Independence Day Weekend Weather – Jun 30, 2016

June 30, 2016NYC, Storms, Thunderstorms, Weather Update, Weekendhigh pressure, new york city independence day weather, new york city weather, new york city wx, nyc independence day weather, nyc weather, nyc wx, rain, thunderstorms, tstorms, weatherLei Zhao

The holiday weekend ahead will be picture perfect for nearly any type of outdoor activity, with the caveat that it will start off with some stormy weather on Friday evening/night. This batch of storms may impact travelers as they make their getaway from the city, but once they pass, the rest of the weekend will be a real gem. Any fireworks displays not scheduled for Friday night should go off without a hitch.

Rest of today – warm with a light breeze from the northwest, less humid, high in the mid-80s with sunny conditions.

Friday – mostly cloudy, high around 80ºF, increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms especially toward the afternoon and evening hours. Some of these storms could produce gusty winds. Storms continue into early overnight hours.

Saturday – sunny, high in the low-80s.

Sunday – clone of Saturday, high in the low-80s. High pressure begins to dominate the weather over the region.

Monday (Independence Day) – another sunny, spotless day, with highs in the low-80s.

NYC Weather Update – Jun 20, 2016

June 20, 2016Climate, Drought, NYC, Rain, Storms, Thunderstorms, Weather Updateclimate, drought, full moon, new york city weather, nyc weather, nyc wx, rain, solstice, summer solstice, thunderstorms, tstorms, weatherLei Zhao

We couldn’t have asked for better weather this past weekend, and Sunday in particular was a real gem for all the fathers who had outdoor plans. The run of nice weather gets a couple interruptions this week for some much needed rain, with the first half of the week heating up before a cool down mid-week.

Rest of today – mostly sunny with a high temperature in the low-80s. Today also marks the first official day of summer, which begins at 6:34PM EDT. For the first time in 70 years, the summer solstice will also coincide with a full moon.

Tuesday – a cold front pushes through overnight into Tuesday. There could be some showers/thunderstorms in the early morning hours, but these are unlikely to linger much beyond daybreak. Once the frontal boundary clears, winds pick up inland from the west, ushering in a warmer, though less humid airmass. Temperatures should rise steadily into the upper-80s to near 90ºF in a couple spots under clearing and mostly sunny skies.

Wednesday – pleasant, sunny, with high temperatures in the mid-80s.

Thursday – the next chance at rain comes with a low pressure system moving during the afternoon hours Thursday. Uncertainty remains as to the exact track of this incoming storm system. A southerly track would result in less potential for severe weather/flash flooding, and this is the scenario that forecast models seem to suggest now. Either way, it will be a cooler day with mostly cloudy skies and temperatures in the upper-70s, with a chance for showers and thunderstorms later in the day into the overnight hours.

Friday – much improved conditions with mostly sunny skies and highs in the low-80s.

Drought Worsens, Likely to Persist this Summer

The continued lack of significant rainfall this Spring has led to increasingly dry soil. The US drought monitor now has some regions of the Northeast in an area of moderate drought. The outlook for the summer suggests that the drought will persist, without much improvement.

NYC Weather Update – Apr 26, 2016

April 26, 2016Climate, NYC, Severe Weather, Storms, Thunderstorms, Weather Updateclimate, new york city weather, nyc weather, nyc wx, severe thunderstorms, severe weather, severe wx, thunderstorms, tstormsLei Zhao

There is a potential for strong to severe thunderstorms today, especially for areas south and west of the city today. Stormy weather gives way to calmer, cooler conditions Wednesday before another round of rain moves in late Thursday. Cooler temperatures prevail in the short to medium term.

Rest of today – the Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of the region under a marginal to slight risk of severe weather today. These areas are largely confined to those south and west of the city. A frontal boundary is draped from west to east across the area, such that portions to the east will be in colder air north of the frontal boundary, while those areas to the west will be in a warmer area south of it. Any strong to severe thunderstorms will be confined to areas that see the warmest temperatures today, where the spread in high temperatures could be over 25ºF from eastern Long Island to Central New Jersey.

In the city, expect high temperatures in the upper-60s to low-70s with a potential for thunderstorms, some possibly with damaging winds and small hail. These storms will be coming in two rounds, one around 11AM this morning (radar returns are already showing this batch of weaker showers), and the second, stronger batch coming around 3PM.

Wednesday – temperatures cool off considerably in the wake of these storms. High temperatures will be around 60ºF tomorrow with sunny skies.

Thursday – another cool day with high temperatures in the upper-50s and increasing clouds along with an increasing chance of rain during the day into the overnight hours.

Friday – high temperatures in the upper-50s to around 60ºF with partly sunny skies.

Below Normal Temperature Trend to Continue – Rain Needed

An upcoming series of storm systems moving over the region will lead to colder air being pulled in behind them. This will result in below normal temperatures for this time of year throughout much of the next two weeks.

Due to a long stretch of dry weather, many portions of the NYC region have fallen behind normal precipitation levels for this period of the year by considerable margins. Hopefully, the rounds of rain we are forecast to receive coming up will help to prevent drought conditions from redeveloping in the area before this growing season starts in earnest.

NYC Weekend Weather – Apr 7, 2016

April 7, 2016NYC, Rain, Snow, Storms, Thunderstorms, Weather Update, Weekendcold front, new york city weather, new york city wx, nyc weather, nyc wx, rain, snow, thunderstorms, weatherLei Zhao

Wet, but much warmer weather today gives way to another blast of cold air this weekend. Light accumulating snow (1-3″) will be a real possibility Saturday and Saturday night before temperatures moderate back closer to season averages for this time of year to start next week.

Rest of today – cloudy, with gusty winds up to 40-50mph from the south and southwest. High temperature in the low-60s. Periods of rain with some thunderstorms possible this afternoon. The first batch of this rain will come in a line around 1PM this afternoon, with a second round of rain hitting later this evening at around 9PM.

Friday – temperatures cool off into the mid-50s with a very small chance for lingering showers and mostly cloudy skies. Overnight lows will drop into the mid-30s.

Saturday – a reinforcing arctic front will sweep through during the day on Saturday, such that high temperatures will peak early in the upper-30s before dropping into the low-30s into the 20s overnight. Precipitation will start off as snow at the coast, transition to rain for a period during the afternoon, but then turn back to snow late in the day. When it all settles, we could have 1-2″ of snow on the ground here in the city.

Sunday – skies clear out with high pressure taking control after the storm passes on Saturday, but temperatures will be cold, only the mid-40s.

Monday – an advancing storm system from the west will shift winds to the south and allow for temperatures to rise back to seasonal averages in the mid-50s.

NYC Weather Update – Apr 4, 2016

April 4, 2016NYC, Rain, Storms, Thunderstorms, Weather Updatehigh pressure, new york city weather, nyc weather, rain, thunderstorms, weatherLei Zhao

I thought we had seen the last of the snow this spring, but winter stubbornly will not give up. This week, we’ll see the coldest weather we’ve encountered since the depths of winter, with low temperatures dropping into the upper-20s in the city and even teens for outlying areas. A brief warm up occurs this Thursday before the cold returns again.

Rest of today – windy with periods of rain in the city. High temperatures will likely top off in the upper-40s to near 50ºF. Temperatures plummet into the upper-20s following the passage of the cold front that’s responsible for this round of precipitation.

Tuesday – clear skies will belie the much below normal high temperatures for the day which will be only around 40ºF. A freeze warning is in effect for most of the coastal regions in the Tri-State area given the overnight lows that will be substantially below freezing.

Wednesday – the high pressure pictured above will be in firm control Tuesday and overnight into Wednesday. A cloudless sky overnight will make for ideal conditions for radiational cooling, resulting in low temperatures again in the mid-20s. High temperatures will be warmer in the mid-40s with increasing clouds ahead of the next storm system.

Thursday – a surge of warmer air will accompany the next storm system to impact the area Thursday. This storm system will bring widespread rain and even some thunderstorms late in the day Thursday. High temperatures should reach well into the upper-50s and near 60ºF.

Friday – following the passage of the storm on Thursday, temperatures cool off again into the upper-40s under mostly cloudy skies.

NYC Weekend Weather – Mar 17, 2016

March 17, 2016Noreaster, Rain, Snow, Storms, Thunderstorms, Weather Update, Weekendhail, high pressure, new york city weekend weather, noreaster, nyc weather, nyc weekend weather, nyc weekend wx, rain, snow, spring storm, thunderstorms, weather, winter stormLei Zhao

Meteorologically, March is a month of highly changeable weather that can swing from one extreme to another. Thus far this month, we’ve seen snow, and record warm temperatures near 80ºF. This week is no different, and it ends with the possibility for a significant coastal storm that could bring accumulating snow to the region to ring in the official start of spring!

Rest of today – warm, with partly sunny skies and high temperatures in the mid-60s. An unstable atmosphere looks primed to spawn a few scattered thunderstorms. Atmospheric dynamics are supportive of strong wind gusts and possibly small hail with any storms that form this afternoon. Some of these storms could approach severe limits. Based on the latest High Resolution Rapid Refresh model output, there look to be two batches of storms, one impacting the region around 2PM, then again around 5:30PM. At the time of this post, two storm cells were moving slowly east over southern Bergen County and the western Bronx respectively.

Friday – temperatures cool off into the low-mid 50s tomorrow, with a slight chance again for some afternoon showers, though nothing quite as significant as today.

Saturday – an area of polar high pressure will move over southeastern Canada, setting the stage for the winter storm Sunday. Saturday, however, will be a pleasant, sunny day, but temperatures will be below average in the low-mid 40s.

Sunday – all eyes turn to a developing coastal storm/Nor’easter. Forecast models are having a rough time handling this storm, with wide variances noted among some of the models from day to day. Given the uncertainty at this time, only a couple days before the expected onset of the storm, it is difficult to guess at the snowfall accumulations from this storm. One thing that is well understood at this point is that temperature profiles will support a primarily snow event, with some rain mixing in at the coast. High temperatures Sunday will struggle to hit 40ºF. Snow should begin in the morning, mixing with rain in the afternoon Sunday afternoon before transitioning again to all snow overnight. A slight variation in the forecast storm track either west or east could result in dramatically different snowfall totals – more updates to come.

Monday – temperatures rebound back into the mid-40s under partly sunny skies following the passage of this late season snow storm.

NYC Weather Update – Mar 14, 2016

March 14, 2016NYC, Rain, Storms, Weather Updatenew york city weather, nyc weather, rain, st patricks day weather, weatherLei Zhao

After a week of being spoiled with late-Spring warmth, we start this week off with a rude awakening of below average temperatures and a rainy, raw day. Temperatures rebound back into above normal ranges quickly, but they won’t be anything like the record-breaking warmth we experienced last week. St. Patrick’s Day looks to be a decent day – at least from a meteorological perspective.

Rest of today – most of the heavier rain has already moved north and east of the area, but lingering showers will punctuate dry spells for the remainder of the day and into the overnight hours. These won’t be the kinds of downpours that get you wet even when you have an umbrella. Combined with a persistent east wind, these showers will be enough to make it feel raw and unpleasant for the day. High temperatures will be below average – only be in the mid-40s with this onshore easterly flow off the ocean.

Tuesday – rain ends early, leaving us with a mostly cloudy day with patchy fog, and a high temperature in the low-mid 50s.

Wednesday – best day of the week by far, as temperatures will rise into the upper-50s to low-60s across the area with partly sunny skies.

Thursday (St. Patrick’s Day) – this day should turn out decently for revelers as temperatures should again be close to 60ºF, however, there is a chance of passing showers in the afternoon.

NYC Weather Update – Feb 29, 2016

February 29, 2016Climate, NYC, Rain, Storms, Weather Updatecold front, drought, low pressure, new york city weather, nyc weather, nyc wx, rain, snow, spring, weatherLei Zhao

This week opens up with some very mild and spring-like weather. March will arrive like a lamb for sure. However, following a storm system moving through Wednesday, temperatures will cool off to below normal levels, with a possibility for some snow Friday! This kind of highly variable weather is typical for spring, which officially starts in just under 3 weeks time.

Rest of today – a line of showers associated with a cold front passed through this morning and has moved well off to the east of the city. Skies have cleared up, and temperatures are rising steadily into the upper-50s. Would not be surprised to see some areas top 60ºF this afternoon.

Tuesday – despite the passage of a cold front today, temperatures don’t cool off too much tomorrow. Mostly sunny skies should yield temperatures slightly above normal in the upper-40s.

Wednesday – the next storm system moves in overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. The low pressure center responsible for this storm is forecast to pass almost directly over the region early Wednesday morning. As it approaches, it will pull in warmer air from the south into its counterclockwise cyclonic flow, which will result in temperatures actually warming up overnight into the upper-40s. Temperatures will peak Wednesday morning around 50ºF, accompanied by periods of rain. Rain should be dissipating by 2PM in the afternoon.

Thursday – following the passage of the low pressure above, temperatures will cool off into the upper-30s fro Thursday under mostly sunny skies.

Drought Ends

The last couple months have delivered sufficient snow and rain to bust the moderate drought that had been persisting over the NYC metro area, in particular on Long Island. This is excellent news for farmers and gardeners throughout the region ahead of the upcoming growing season.

LZ | Weather

Weather updates & posts for NYC region