Category Archives: Storms

NYC Weather Update – Feb 22, 2016

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This week features an active weather pattern with precipitation possible from Tuesday evening through parts of Thursday. Temperatures start off below normal before rising above normal for Wednesday and Thursday, then finally dropping below normal again to end the week. A cooler than normal trend will persist into the beginning of March.

Rest of today – mostly clear with high temperatures in the mid-upper 40s.

Tuesday – the weaker of two storm systems to affect the region this week will approach from the south. Chances for precipitation will increase through the afternoon and become likely overnight. Temperature profiles at the start of the event will support light rain/snow mix before transitioning to all rain for the city overnight. High temperatures should top off in the upper-30s.

Wednesday – rain likely throughout the day, increasing in coverage and intensity through the morning into the afternoon. High temperatures will be warm in the upper-40s.

Thursday – the heaviest rains with this storm system are forecast to occur during the overnight hours Wednesday going into Thursday. Showers are still possible Thursday morning with most precipitation ending during the afternoon. A warm front will pass Wednesday night, which will help support mild temperatures in mid-50s.

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Friday – a trailing cold front from the storm above passes through late Thursday, and in the wake of this cold front, skies will start clearing Friday with temperatures cooling off, and highs only around 40ºF.

Cooler to End February

A cooler than normal temperature trend is likely to occur to end the month and to start March.

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NYC Weather Update – Feb 02, 2016

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The calendar says it’s February, but you’d be forgiven for thinking otherwise with temperatures soaring well into the upper 50s this afternoon. The warm trend continues through the middle of this week, when a potent storm system that will be bringing blizzard conditions to some parts of the Midwest (including Iowa, where caucus turnouts may be adversely impacted) passes through the area. Looking ahead, a cool down is on the way, as is the potential for another coastal storm on the day after the Super Bowl. At this time, thermal profiles are not looking conducive for snow, but as we all saw from the last storm, things could very well change as this storm system evolves.

Rest of today – quite warm, with high temperatures well in the upper 50s under mostly cloudy skies. Periods of light rain look to persist as a cold front makes its way across the area this evening, though it appears most of the precipitation should end by 7PM this evening.

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High Resolution Rapid Refresh model output for 7PM EST

Tuesday – with the cold front passing through tonight, temperatures will moderate tomorrow, dropping into the upper 40s under mostly clear skies.

Wednesday – a complex and potent storm system that will be impacting the Midwest the next couple days will make its way into the region Wednesday. A warm front will pass over our area prior to the passage of a cold front. As we enter the warm sector between these two frontal boundaries, we’ll see a surge of warm air and moisture from the south. This may even lead to a couple isolated rumbles of thunder during the afternoon. Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy skies with showers throughout the afternoon into the evening hours. High temperatures will be quite warm, again approaching 60ºF – and possibly surpassing this mark.

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Thursday – just like tomorrow, once the cold front above pushes through the area, temperatures will again cool off back into the upper 40s (which is still about 10ºF above normal), and skies will clear.

NYC Weekend Weather – Nor’easter Inbound – Jan 21, 2016

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All eyes turn towards this weekend’s Nor’easter which will bring us the most snow we’ve seen since last winter. Confidence is growing that NYC and points south could receive over a foot of snow by Sunday. In addition, forecasters anticipate that this storm will bring sustained winds of 30mph to coastal areas with gusts as high as 40-60mph leading to whiteout blizzard conditions. However, it is important to not, even at this point, 48 hours from the start of this event, that a good deal of uncertainty remains about these forecast snow totals.

Rest of today – mostly clear with high temperatures reaching into the mid-30s but a northwest wind in the 15mph range making it feel colder.

Friday – slightly cooler with highs in the low-mid 30s, clouds I increasing through the day as the headline storm for the weekend approaches.

Saturday – snow should begin falling from southwest to northeast overnight Friday and continue throughout the day Saturday. Sustained northeast winds 25mph-30mph could lead to drifting and blowing snow, making for hazardous teavel conditions. Some potential exists that enough warmer air wraps into the storm off the Atlantic that some areas see a changeover to a rain/sleet/snow mix in the afternoon before transitioning back to all snow Saturday night. Total daytime accumulations are currently forecast between 3-7″. Overnight accumulations could be in the 4-8″ range.

MinSnowWeb
Minimum snowfall for this Nor’easter
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Most likely snowfall totals
MaxSnowWeb
Maximum snowfall possible with this storm


Sunday – some lingering snow showers are possible Sunday morning but conditions should improve rapidly as cloud cover decreases with the storm exiting to our east. High temperatures are expected to be in the mid-30s.

Monday – warmer with high temperatures in the mid-30s and sunny skies.

Complicating Factors for Forecasting the Nor’easter

  • Model divergence – European models favor a solution that has the storm moving quicker and further south than US based models. This scenario would result in minimal snow for NYC, hence why the minimum snow forecast is only 2″.
  • Unpredictable snow bands – as we are all too aware from last year’s fiasco of subway shutdowns in anticipation for a blizzard that didn’t materialize, when it comes to Nor’easter type storms, where, when, and for how long deformation banding features (heavy bands of snow) set up will make or break a snowfall total forecast in either direction. However, these types of mesoscale banding features are not easy to predict with confidence before they actually start forming. Should parts of our region fall under one of these banding features where snow could be falling at rates of 1″+ per hour, you could easily see total snowfall forecasts be shattered.
  • Intrusion of warm air – if enough warm air works its way into this storm off the warm waters of the Atlantic (where above normal temperatures thus far this winter have kept the sea surface temperatures abnormally warm), then some areas could see a rain/sleet mix for periods of time. Forecasters are overall confident the window for this mixing is small enough that overall totals won’t be dented too much, though.
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The closer this storm center tracks to the 40ºN 70ºW benchmark, the better the chances become for our are to get a lot of snow. Climatologically, Nor’easters that track closest to this benchmark have been the biggest snowmakers for the NYC region.

 

NYC Weather Update – Jan 18, 2016

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Weather to start this week will be rather uneventful, predominantly featuring windy, cold days, but little in the way of precipitation. We did get our first dusting of snow so far this winter in the city last night, and the potential for significantly more exists with a possible Nor’easter coming this weekend. As always, even though we’re within a week of this event, our local forecast office is only forecasting with 30% confidence due to the large changes in impact that even small fluctuations in storm track and intensity could bring.

Rest of today – we’ve already hit high temperatures for the day around 30ºF. A tight pressure gradient is causing breezy west winds near 20mph translating to wind chill values in the 10-15ºF range.

Tuesday – basically a repeat of today, but with slightly stronger winds. High temperatures will be in the upper-20s to around 30ºF with west winds in the 20-25mph leading to wind chills in the single digits to low teens under mostly sunny skies.

Wednesday – warmer, with high temperatures closer to normal in the mid-30s, calmer winds and sunny skies. There could be some flurries Wednesday night with a passing clipper system, but no accumulation is expected in the city.

Thursday – mostly sunny again with high temperatures in the mid-30s.

 

Possible Nor’easter This Friday – Saturday

Looking ahead towards the end of the week, there is a possibility for the first significant snowfall event in the NYC region thus far this winter. Forecasters are keeping close tabs on the possible formation of a classic Nor’easter towards the end of this week. It is important to stress that even at this point in time, there’s still considerable uncertainty about how this scenario will unfold. A deviation in the track of this coastal low too far north would result in a mainly rain event along the coast, while a deviation too far south would mean significantly less precipitation. If this scenario plays out under optimal conditions, our region would be in the northwest quadrant of this low, an area that favors the development of heavy snow. Even then, as was the case a couple winters ago, slight changes to the track and position of the heaviest snow bands could mean the difference between 5″ of snow or over a foot. Stay tuned for updates.

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NYC Weekend Weather – Jan 8, 2016

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With a quiet, though at times very cold, weather week behind us, we look towards a weekend that will bring with it much warmer temperatures along with unsettled weather. Looking into the long term, forecast models are hinting at a possible strong coastal low/Nor’easter hitting the area about 10 days from now. Of course, this far out, forecasts will vary wildly, as has been the case the last week or so with forecast models. However, if the right conditions combine, we could see our first big snow event of the season.

Rest of today – clouds increasing steadily during the day with an approaching storm system. High temperatures about normal in the low-40s.

Saturday – the first portion of a storm system for this weekend moves in during the day Saturday, however, precipitation will be limited during the day due to a lack of significant lift in the atmosphere. Cloudy, with high temperatures in the mid-40s.

Sunday – the bulk of the rain will arrive along with a warm front Sunday. Periods of heavy rain are possible throughout the afternoon, tapering off during the evening hours. Depending on if we get any breaks in the clouds, we could see temperatures approach 60ºF during the day.

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Monday – once the the low pressure system above exits the area, pulling through a trailing cold front, temperatures will once again plummet back into the upper-30s with clear skies.

NYC Weather Update – Dec 28, 2015

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After an absurdly warm start to the winter, we are about to get a dose of proper weather for this time of year. While temperatures this week and the first half of January will still above normal in many cases, they will be considerably cooler than December and be closer to normal than not. This week, we start with a messy and complex storm (the same that spawned deadly tornadoes in Texas and has brought blizzard conditions to New Mexico, and an ice storm to Oklahoma) that affects the area tonight into Tuesday with a mix of rain, sleet, freezing rain, and snow, depending on how far north you are. Yet another round rain and snow further north from the city is possible Wednesday.

Rest of today – seasonably cool with high temperatures only in the low-mid 40s. Increasing clouds ahead of a warm front that will be the focus for the precipitation later tonight. Things get interesting overnight as precipitation begins to spread over the area from southwest to northeast. Near the coast, surface temperatures are expected to remain warm enough (upper-30s) to largely preclude the possibility of significant wintry precipitation, however, sleet could mix in with rain to at the start of this storm before things shift over to all rain. Further west and north will be another story, with areas expecting anything between .25″ of ice to 2-4″ of snow/sleet accumulation before rain starts falling.

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Tuesday – as temperatures warm with daybreak, wintry precipitation should transition entirely to rain. Rain is expected to last throughout most of the morning into the early afternoon hours. East winds ahead of the warm front mentioned above will be in the 15-20mph range before shifting to the north. High temperatures in the city are expected to hit the upper-40s to around 50ºF.

Wednesday – we’ll get another shot at rain as the cold front railing the warm front pictured above pushes through late on Wednesday into the overnight hours. Despite increasing clouds, forecasts still call for high temperatures in the low-50s.

Thursday – a lingering chance of rain remains on the backside of the cold front. High temperatures are expected to be about the same as Wednesday near 50.

NYC Weather Update – Nov 9, 2015

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We have a fairly active weather week ahead of us, with two separate chances for rain coming from two different storms, the first of which impacts the area tomorrow and tomorrow night. The second storm system to affect us this week will make its passage on Thursday. Temperatures are much more seasonable this week with high temperatures hovering near 60 for most of the week.

Rest of today – mostly sunny with a high near 60 degrees.

Tuesday – a low pressure center over the Gulf coast today will strengthen into a coastal low as it tracks to our south and east Tuesday and Tuesday night. Like most coastal lows of this type, a large shield of overrunning precipitation will advance ahead of the actual low. This should translate to a rainy day Tuesday, with steady chances for precipitation throughout the course of the day and into the overnight hours. An east wind will also bring a cool, onshore breeze into the area, giving the day a raw feel despite high temperatures near 60.

 

 

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Wednesday (Veterans Day) – looks to be bookended by wet weather, but should be a mostly dry day with more clouds than sun, and a high again near 60.

Thursday – a cold front associated with a low pressure system that’s currently over the plains will bring about our second chance for rain this week, although this round of rain should not be as long-lived or drenching as tomorrow’s storm. High temperatures should remain around 60.

NYC Weather Update – Jul 6, 2015

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We get a dose of summer weather this week, after a rather cool start to July this past weekend. Along with the warmer temperatures, there will also be some chance for unsettled weather up until Friday as a cold front transits late Wednesday into Thursday.

Tuesday – clouds and sun with high temperatures topping out in the mid-80s and possibly upper-80s in a few spots. There is a chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon especially in western portions of the region.

Wednesday – clouds mixed with some sun again with a warm, tropical airmass in place ahead of a cold front allowing for high temperatures to rise into the upper-80s to low-90s in a few spots. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in the afternoon, however, forecast models are still presenting disparate outcomes as to the exact timing and coverage of precipitation Wednesday. With warm temperatures and ample moisture, storms that do form have the potential to produce periods of heavy rain.

 

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Thursday – chances for rain and thunderstorms continue into the overnight hours Thursday, but it does appear that we get a break during the morning. High temperatures will be quite warm again in the upper-80s despite a cold front having moved through. Another weak disturbance is forecast to approach the area in the afternoon, giving us another chance at some showers and thunderstorms.

NYC Weather Update – Jun 30, 2015

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This short holiday week will feature decent weather for the most part, with the exception of Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. As of now, it does appear that there will be a chance of showers/thunderstorms on July 4th itself, however, uncertainty and considerable disparities between different forecast models has been noted by forecasters. We should have a clearer picture of the situation later this week.

Rest of today – clouds gradually increase in coverage during the day today with high temperatures in the low-80s. Overnight, chances for rain will steadily pick up as a warm front approaches the area from the south and west.

Wednesday – a mostly cloudy day with highs in the low-mid 80s. There is a good chance for showers early on in the day. However, the chance of rain starts to diminish in the afternoon, and it is unclear if there will be enough instability remaining in the atmosphere following the passage of the warm front above to support more rain or storms.gfs_namer_033_1000_850_thick

Thursday – a cold front following on the heels of the warm front mentioned above will mean that there is still a chance for showers and thunderstorms as that frontal boundary approaches. Temperatures should be similar to Wednesday, in the low-mid 80s.

Looking ahead at the holiday weekend, it looks like both Friday and Sunday should be mostly sunny with temperatures in the low-80s. There is a small chance for rain and thunderstorms for Independence Day, but there is enough forecast uncertainty in the forecast models to hope for a dry day Saturday as well.

NYC Weekend Weather | Jun 25, 2015

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The first half of this first full week of the summer felt very much like mid-summer, with hot, humid conditions and even some severe thunderstorms. The second half of this week, along with the weekend will feel a lot more like late spring, with Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning shaping up to be a washout.

Rest of today – pleasant, sunny skies, with a wind from the northwest, will yield comfortable high temperatures in the mid-80s.

Friday – an area of low pressure will be tracking eastward from the Midwest along a nearly stationary frontal boundary that will be positioned over southern New Jersey. The timing of this wave of low pressure will be overnight Thursday into Friday morning. Rain should end by noon Friday. With mostly cloudy skies, high temperatures will only top out in the mid-70s.

North American Model high resolution simulated radar image for Friday at 8AM EDT
North American Model high resolution simulated radar image for Friday at 8AM EDT

Saturday – the respite from the rain will be short-lived. Saturday morning into the early afternoon should remain rain-free, though temperatures will again be suppressed in the low-mid 70s. Another, more potent area of low pressure will make its approach from the west during the day Saturday. The precipitation shield associated with this low should begin to fill in over the area beginning in the mid-afternoon hours. Periods of showers will continue falling, with moderate to heavy rain at times, throughout the remainder of the day and overnight Saturday.

North American Model high resolution simulated radar for Saturday at 2PM EDT
North American Model high resolution simulated radar for Saturday at 2PM EDT

Sunday – rain begins to taper off on Sunday from south to north as the center of the low pressure responsible for this storm moves to our northeast. Rain should end in the early afternoon hours. Mostly cloudy skies are expected with temperatures in the mid-70s. Rain from last week has put a dent in drought conditions across New York state, but areas of Central upstate New York and eastern Long Island could still use this rain. The downside is that it will put a damper on many outdoor plans for the first full weekend of the summer, and the first weekend after school ends here.

Monday – conditions improve on Monday as the low pressure continues to pull away. High temperatures should remain in the mid-70s with cloud cover decreasingly steadily.