Category Archives: Storms

NYC Weekend Weather – Apr 2, 2020

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A retrograding low will bring increasing clouds, wind and rain to end the week. This low will be blocked from moving east until late Friday. High pressure will move in Saturday and should dry things out, and bring more sun. A weak cold front is forecast to pass through Sunday. Some rain will be possible with this frontal passage. Temperatures during this period should remain at or above normal for this period in the mid-50s.

Rest of today – increasing clouds with a low retrograding west towards the area. High temperatures in the mid-50s. Winds will pick up also as the pressure gradient builds between the retrograding low and high pressure to the west. Overnight lows should be around the mid-40s.

Friday – chances for rain, mostly in the morning hours, with high temperatures in the mid-50s under mostly cloudy skies. Rain chances will diminish as this low finally pulls off to the south. Overnight lows again in the mid-40s.

  • Weather Prediction center surface forecast for 2AM Friday
  • GFS model 500 mb height, vorticity and wind forecast valid 10AM Thursday. Note the presence of the closed upper low offshore of the Northeast, with an omega blocking pattern over the eastern Atlantic (two lows, with a ridge in between, literally looks like the Greek letter for omega)

Saturday – as high pressure moves in, we’ll see a better day with partly to perhaps mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the upper-50s. Overnight lows will be in the mid-40s.

Sunday – a weakening cold front may bring a chance for showers, but ahead of this, temperatures will be mild in the upper-50s. Overnight lows will warm into the mid-40s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Mar 26, 2020

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The active weather pattern we’ve seen so far this week with alternating days of sun and rain continues with two more storms coming for the end of the week into the weekend. This time around, the rainy days will outnumber the sunny ones. We will start off with a beautiful Thursday before a weaker storm impacts the area tomorrow. A more significant system will move through later Saturday into Sunday. Temperatures during this time will range around normal to above normal in the 50s.

Rest of today – high pressure will be in control of the weather today, yielding a sunny day with temperatures steadily rising into the upper-50s. Overnight lows should be around the mid-40s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Friday

Friday – clouds will build overnight into the day and by the morning hours a weak area of low pressure will be moving through the area. We can expect some light rain with this system in the morning, rather than a full day washout. Clouds will remain through the rest of the day even after the system clears and rain stops. High temperatures around 60°F. Overnight lows will be in the low-40s as a result of radiational cooling as high pressure briefly builds.

Saturday – with high pressure positioned to our north to start, northeasterly flow will keep temperatures cool in the low-50s. A stronger storm system with origins in the lee of the Rockies will be moving towards us throughout the day. A warm front will slowly move up from the south bringing a steady rain ahead of it. Overnight lows will be in the mid-40s as rain continues.

GFS 500 mb height and relative vorticity valid 8PM Sunday. Note the presence of a closed 500 mb low over Michigan and southern Ontario generating lots of positive voriticity around it. This will provide divergence and lift at the upper levels to support the storm hitting us Sunday.

Sunday – With the warm front making its way through and flow turning towards the south/southwest, temperatures should rise to around 60°F. However, rain chances are expected to continue throughout the course of the day before tapering off overnight. Overnight lows will warm into the upper-40s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Mar 6, 2020

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This weekend starts of with a storm system passing well southeast of NYC Friday into Saturday. The periphery of this low offshore, a weakening secondary low tracking from the Great Lakes, as well as a weak inverted trough pivoting through will still give us a chance for rain later today and overnight into Saturday. Behind this storm, temperatures will cool to seasonable levels in the mid-40s. However, high pressure will build and quickly move southeast. The flow will turn southerly and bring a big warm up to start week in the 60s.

Rest of today – clouds have already worked their way into the are ahead of a secondary low moving east. High temperatures today should peak in the upper-40s. Rain chances increase in the afternoon as bands of precipitation develop and start pivoting around a rapidly strengthening offshore low. The secondary low will transfer energy to this offshore low and eventually be absorbed. A brief period of wet snow could happen overnight, but no accumulation is expected. Overnight lows should be around the mid-30s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7PM Friday

Saturday – clouds should clear with high pressure starting to build in. Temperatures won’t be that much cooler behind this storm, rebounding into the mid-40s, but it will be cooler than we’ve been used to this week. The pressure gradient between the incoming high pressure and departing offshore storm should allow for some brisk northerly winds. As the high pressure continues moving overhead, winds should calm and allow for a mostly clear overnight. Overnight lows will be in the low-30s as a result of good radiational cooling from these conditions.

Sunday – by this time, the high pressure should continue to track southeast. In response, winds will being shifting to the southwest, bringing a much warmer air mass back to the region. High temperatures will likely respond by shooting back into the upper-50s. Overnight lows will be considerably warmer, in the low-40s. We jump ahead an hour as daylight saving time starts.

  • GFS model 2 meter above ground temperatures, 10 meter above ground winds for 2PM Monday
  • GFS model surface pressure and 10 meter above ground winds for 2PM Monday

Monday – the prolonged period of southerly flow as the high pressure keeps moving off to the southeast with plenty of sun at an increasing angle should result in high temperatures well into the 60s, mid-upper 60s possibly! Overnight lows will continue warming into the mid-40s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Feb 7, 2020

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We start this weekend with a high wind warning as a strong low pressure center passing overhead. A much colder air mass will be on the heels of this passing storm. A brief calm Saturday spell punctuates an otherwise active pattern with another storm approaching to start next week. High temperatures during this time will generally be at or above normal (~40°F) with a big warmup by Monday.

Rest of today – high temperatures have already peaked in the mid-50s but the remainder of the day will see a continuing fall in temperatures through the 40s and 30s as strong cold air advection kicks in. This is due to a potent low pressure system (972 mb and strengthening) passing overhead. The tight pressure gradient around this low, in addition to a well-mixed layer forming with winds aloft at 50 knots mixing down will yield very strong winds. A high wind warning is in effect this afternoon when sustained winds could easily be in the 30-40 mph range with gusts exceeding 60 mph in places. Winds will abate overnight as the low exits northeast, temperatures will keep falling all the way into the upper-20s with cold air advection driven by winds from the northwest continuing.

  • Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 1 PM today. Note the tight packing of isobars around the 972 mb low pressure center moving just north of the area.
  • NAM model’s forecast sounding for 1PM today. Very strong unidirectional wind profile is indicated, with winds just above the surface in excess of 50 knots. A well-mixed layer is evident as well up to about 850 mb where winds look to range between 55-65 knots. This should allow strong gusts and sustained winds to make it to the surface.

Saturday – high pressure builds in briefly, and should yield a mostly sunny day. With overnight lows in the upper-20s, high temperatures will be decidedly colder around 40°F. Overnight lows remain on the cold side around 30°F.

Sunday – clouds increase with high temperatures in low-40s as the next frontal system approaches. Winds will shift to the south. There is a chance for rain/snow mix then rain during the day. Overnight lows in the mid-30s.

Monday – prolonged southerly flow will help kick temperatures up to the low-50s as the frontal system slows in its approach. This will also bring prolonged chances for rain. Overnight lows in the upper-30s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Dec 13, 2019

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Mild temperatures in the mid-50s are on the way along with long duration drenching rains to start the weekend. Rain tapers off Saturday evening and conditions improve Sunday with a return to more seasonable temperatures in the 40s. A chance of wintry mix or snow is possible late Monday.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy with chances for rain increasing by the afternoon. Steady rain expected overnight. High temperatures around 50°F. Temperatures actually rise overnight with southeasterly onshore flow aiding warm advection.

  • NAM 2-meter temperature and 10-meter winds at 11PM Friday
  • NAM precipitable water for 7AM Saturday

Saturday – rain continues through the day Saturday with high temperatures peaking in the mid-50s as a warm front passes and persistent onshore flow from the southeast, backing briefly to the northeast then veering south continuously advects warmer air off the ocean to the area. Overnight lows are a different picture dropping into low-40s as winds turn to the west behind a cold front.

Sunday – as the parent low bringing this rain moves north of the area and continues gathering strength, winds will pick up from the west. This will bring cooler air to the area resulting in highs in the mid-40s under partly sunny skies. Overnight lows continue a cooling trend to about the freezing mark.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7AM Sunday

Monday – another storm system will impact the area starting late in the day. Temperatures will be cold, topping out in the mid-30s. Precipitation starting late on Monday should begin as snow or a wintry mix given the currently forecast temperature profile. As is the case going into Saturday, a change in wind direction accompanying a warm front should help temperatures actually rise overnight into the upper-30s, allowing precipitation to transition to rain.

NYC Weekend Weather – Dec 6, 2019

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An arctic front swings through today, bringing a blast of cold air behind it going into the weekend. Temperatures will rebound dramatically going into the start of next week with an approaching storm system turning winds to the south. We’ll see high temperatures going from the upper-30s to the mid-50s by Monday.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy with a high temperature in the upper-40s. Chance of rain this evening with the passage of an arctic front. Overnight lows cooling into the low-30s with clearing skies.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7AM Saturday

Saturday – high pressure builds behind the arctic front bringing sunny skies but a much colder polar airmass with high temperatures struggling to hit 40ºF. Overnight lows drop into the mid-20s.

Sunday – high pressure center moves off to the east, allowing for warmer return flow from the south. This should allow temperatures to be a touch warmer than Saturday, in the low-40s. Overnight lows are expected to bottom out around 40ºF before actually rising due to an incoming storm system turning winds to the south.

GFS model output for 1PM Monday, a low-level jet at 850 mb with winds in excess of 40 knots is evident, along with pretty high values of relative humidity.

Monday – high temperatures continue to climb into the mid-50s with deep layer south-southwesterly winds. Increasing chances for rain as a cold front approaches from the west. Heavy rain is possible given a possible tropical moisture connection. Overnight lows barely moving into the low-50s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Nov 15, 2019

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Seasonable temperatures to start the weekend won’t last as a cold front dives through and Canadian high pressure builds behind it Saturday. Cooler flow from the northeast will set up as the high sets up north of us and moves east. Winds will increase in intensity as an approaching coastal storm from the south leads to a tighter pressure gradient. This storm is currently tracking well offshore. However, we may still see some rain from the outer bands of the storm Monday. Aside from Saturday, temperatures will largely range 10-15°F lower than normal during this period.

Rest of today – sunny with high temperatures in the low-50s. Overnight lows around 30°F with winds increasing.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7AM Saturday

Saturday – with high pressure in control, we should see sunny conditions, but temperatures will be cooler with steady northeast winds of 20-25 mph. High temperatures around 40°F. Overnight lows in the low-30s.

Sunday – increasing clouds with high temperatures in the low-40s. Chances for rain possibly going overnight into Monday. Low temperatures in the upper-30s.

GFS model output for 7PM Monday, depicting a glancing blow from a coastal storm moving northeast well offshore of the area.

Monday – chances for showers with high temperatures in the mid-40s. Mostly cloudy otherwise. Overnight lows around 40°F. Persistent northeast flow may lead to coastal flooding concerns.

NYC Weekend Weather – Nov 8, 2019

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Very cold temperatures kick off the weekend, followed by a return to milder temperatures. The reprieve is brief though, with the outlook for next week looking equally cold, especially on the heels of another storm system possibly impacting the region Monday night through Tuesday. Behind this, a reinforcing blast of cold air will reintroduce much below average temperatures to the region. High temperatures will start off ~15°F below normal for this time of year, the moderate to just a couple degrees below normal by Veterans Day.

Rest of today – mostly sunny, strong winds from the northwest ranging 25-35 mph with higher gusts. High temperatures only in the low-40s with this cold wind. Overnight lows may approach record lows, in the upper-20s. This will be aided by winds dying down and clearing skies as the high pressure center shown below continues to build and move closer to us. This should allow for potentially strong radiational cooling before dawn.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7AM Saturday

Saturday – very cold start to the day, temperatures will struggle to climb into the low-40s, close to the record coldest high temperatures for this time of year. The plus side will be calmer winds, eventually shifting to the southwest as the high pressure above moves off to the east. This should help “warm” things up a bit, with overnight lows recovering into the mid-30s.

Sunday – much warmer with high temperatures in the low-50s despite more cloud cover, both due the influence of southwesterly flow. Overnight lows warming into the mid-40s.

  • GFS model 2 meter above ground level temperature anomalies for 7AM Saturday
  • Corresponding GFS 500 mb heights, vorticity. Troughing at the mid-levels here will allow for the continued influx of cold air into the Eastern US. Note how the western US, which is under a 500 mb ridge is expected to experience above normal temperatures.
  • Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for Nov 13-17, showing a very high probability for continued colder than average conditions for much of the Eastern US.

Monday (Veterans Day) – partly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-50s. Overnight, a system will approach from the west and could bring rain with lows bottoming out in the low-40s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Oct 25, 2019

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This weekend starts off with fair and dry weather. A storm developing along the Gulf Coast of Texas, tracking north along the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the Great Lakes, then east towards our area will bring a prolonged period of steady rain on Sunday. As of 11AM today, National Hurricane Center has designated this storm as Tropical Depression Seventeen. This storm should pull out of the area before the start of next week. Temperatures during this period should be at or above average for this time of the year in the low-mid 60s.

Rest of today – partly sunny to mostly cloudy with a cold front weakening, then stalling and returning north as a warm front. High temperatures in the mid-60s. Overnight lows in the low-50s with decreasing clouds as high pressure builds in.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Saturday

Saturday – high pressure builds briefly and should give us mostly sunny skies with high temperatures in the mid-60s. Overnight lows in the low-50s with increasing clouds and chances for rain.

Sunday – much like last weekend, a storm with tropical origins will bring rain and lots of moisture to the area. The extratropical remnants of Tropical Depression Seventeen will track north towards the Great Lakes during this period. A warm front attached to it will bring a shield of steady stratiform rain over the area. Mostly cloudy with highs in the upper-60s as winds turn to the south. Steady rain continuing into the early overnight hours until the storm’s trailing cold front finally sweeps through and drier air works in. Lows in the mid-50s.

  • NAM model output for relative humidity and wind at 850 mb for 5PM Sunday. Note the nearly saturated nature of the lower levels of the atmosphere.
  • NAM model output for wind at 850 mb for 5PM Sunday. Note the high wind speeds at this level, indicating the presence of an 850 mb low-level jet (LLJ)
  • NAM model output for precipitable water at 2PM Sunday. Note the high values above 1.50″. This makes sense, given the tropical origins of the storm that will impact us Sunday.
  • Projected track of Tropical Depression Seventeen

Monday – high pressure and calmer conditions return with highs in the mid-60s and mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows in the mid-50s with mostly cloudy skies.

NYC Weather Update – Sept 10, 2019

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Temperatures are on an upward trend towards midweek. A cold front moving in from the north brings the chance for rain and thunderstorms tomorrow into Thursday. Behind the cold front, a brief cool down to below normal temperatures occurs before temperatures go back to above normal in the low-mid 80s over the weekend.

Rest of today – early clouds should give way to some partial clearing by the afternoon, high temperatures in the upper-70s. Overnight lows in the upper-60s.

GFS model output for 2 meter above ground level temperatures and 10 meter above ground winds at 11AM Wednesday. Noticeably warmer temperatures will accompany the shift to southwesterly winds.

Wednesday – high temperatures in the upper-80s, with a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms later in the day as a prefrontal trough associated with a cold front approaches. Overnight lows in the low-70s with continued chances for showers. Overall, a much warmer and more humid feeling, summer-like day with southerly winds and the presence of a high pressure center south of the area.

Thursday – clearing skies with highs in the low-80s. Cooler and drier behind the passing cold front. Overnight lows in the low-60s.

GFS model output for surface pressure and 10 meter above ground level winds on 2AM Friday. Winds by this time are forecast to have shifted to the northeast and east. Onshore flow will keep temperatures cool on Friday.

Friday – high temperatures remain in the mid-70s, overnight lows in the mid-60s as high pressure builds in briefly to the north. This will bring a cooler, northeasterly onshore wind to the area.