Category Archives: Storms

NYC Weekend Weather – Feb 16, 2018

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This holiday weekend will feature some wild swings in temperature. We’ll bookend the weekend with chances for rain, but in between, we may see some decent accumulating snow. So much for an early spring.

Rest of today (Lunar New Year) – the year of the dog arrives on a cloudy day with temperatures dropping through the course of the day on the heels of a couple cold fronts pushing through. We have a break in the rain right now, but more will arrive later in the day. Winds turn to the northwest behind the front and increase in speed, bringing in a much colder air mass that will set the stage for snow on Saturday.

Saturday – much colder with temperatures topping out around 40°F after a very cold start. Increasing clouds as an area of low pressure developing off the Mid-Atlantic coast brings us the chance for accumulating snow. This coastal storm should be fairly fast mover, but forecasters think it will still bring enough precipitation to warrant a winter storm watch. The official forecasts are calling for a range of 4-8″ overnight Saturday into Sunday. Based on current forecast ensembles, I’m inclined to side with the lower end of that range and call for 4″ at best. As usual, the exact timing and track of this storm could still change a bit before the actual event. A slightly slower or slightly more northerly track would result in higher totals, and conversely a faster and more southerly track would result in only minor accumulations.

Sunday – warmer with high temperatures in the mid-40s and decreasing clouds. Whatever snow we get will begin to melt almost immediately.

Monday (President’s Day) – warmer still with high temperatures in the low-50s and chances for rain as a warm front approaches.

 

 

 

 

NYC Weekend Weather – Feb 9, 2017

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Cold start to this weekend gives way to a milder feel but a soaker of a day Sunday. Going into next week, much of the week will see above average temperatures.

Rest of today – increasing low-level clouds associated with warm air advecting from the south ahead of a warm front. Temperatures still on the cool side during the day with high temperatures in the mid-30s.

Saturday – overnight temperatures actually start to rise as warm advection really takes hold. High temperatures will substantially warmer near 50°F. Cloudy with increasing chances for rain as a cold front approaches from the west.

Sunday – the cold front above will stall in our vicinity, with tropical moisture surging along this frontal boundary. This will result in multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rain. Temperatures will be in the low-50s.

Monday – cooler but still decent with decreasing clouds and high temperatures in the mid-40s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Feb 2, 2017

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The groundhogs have spoken. Our own Staten Island Chuck predicts an early spring, while his more famous counterpart Punxsutawney Phil predicts 6 more weeks of winter. Well, it certainly won’t feel like spring this coming weekend as we endure chilly conditions today and tomorrow before a slight warm up with a chance for precipitation Sunday.

Rest of today – clear, but windy with a northwest breeze 20-25 mph range. This will quickly sweep in much colder Arctic air via cold advection, and as a result temperatures will drop through the day from a high around 30°F.

Saturday – with overnight lows dropping into the teens, Saturday will likewise be a cold day with high temperatures only reaching around 30°F. Clouds will increase as the warm front associated with the next area of low pressure to hit the area moves in late in the day.

Sunday – with the warm front passing over us, winds turn to the southwest and warm advection will result in temperatures warming overnight into Sunday when high temperatures are expected to reach the low-40s. Precipitation in association with the cold front attached to the low pressure below will likely begin as all snow in the city before transitioning to a rain/snow mix or all rain with temperatures rising well above freezing. Little to no snow accumulation is expected – but the journey to and back from various Super Bowl related festivities will be messy.

Monday – things dry out and conditions improve as temperatures top out in the upper-30s with partly cloudy skies.

 

Chuck’s Wrong, Phil’s Right

Unfortunately for those of you who like warmer weather, Staten Island Chuck’s prediction of an early spring is likely to be off the mark. A progressive series of storm systems and an oscillating jet stream will bring multiple bouts of cold weather to the area before the winter’s out. Climate Prediction Center has our region in an area of 33% chance for below normal temperatures in their monthly outlook.

NYC Weather Update – Jan 29, 2018

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This week starts and ends with some active weather. Colder temperatures that swept in after the passage of a cold front this weekend will be here to stay for the remainder of the week. We get a couple chances to see some snow, but not anything of considerable quantity.

Rest of today – partly sunny with high temperatures in the low-40s. A coastal storm passes by but far enough offshore that we shouldn’t see serious impacts from it.

Tuesday – chance of rain and snow in the overnight hours with some troughs rotating around the back side of this departing coastal low. Could have enough snow to make for a messy morning commute, but we’re not looking at any significant accumulation. Cloudy otherwise with temperatures topping out in the low-30s.

Wednesday – mostly sunny with high temperatures around freezing.

Thursday – increasing clouds with temperatures warming into the mid-40s in the warm sector before the next storm system hits us.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jan 12, 2018

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Abrupt changes are the name of the game this weekend. Temperatures start off with  near or above record breaking warmth before plunging right back into below average Arctic chill. Cold air sticks with us well into next week.

Rest of today – areas of dense fog as snowpack melts and warm air surging from the south moves over it (advection fog). This will be accompanied by several bouts of moderate to heavy rain starting later this morning and late this afternoon as well. Overcast skies, with temperatures well into the upper-50s with 60°F or even above for a spot or two entirely possible while we remain in the warm sector.

All of this precipitation on the high resolution rapid refresh simulated radar will be making its way from southwest to northeast across our region today and tomorrow.

Saturday – another shot of moderate to heavy rain overnight into the early morning hours. High temperatures in the mid-40s anticipated early on with temperatures steadily falling the rest of the day. Overnight lows into Sunday only in the mid-teens! This is due to very cold air rushing back into the area after the passage of this cold front bringing us the rain.

Sunday – mostly sunny with high temperatures in the upper-20s.

Monday – partly sunny with highs nearing 30°F.

 

NYC Weather Update – Jan 1, 2018

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First post of 2018! The main weather headlines for this week will be a (slight) break from the bitter cold, a chance for snow, and then a return to even colder temperatures to end the week. There is some potential for a heavier snow storm on Thursday, but forecast models are at odds on some significant details.

Rest of today – sunny, but bitterly cold with high temperatures only in the upper-teens. With a steady northwest wind around 15 mph, wind chills fall between 0 and -5°F.

Tuesday – warmer and sunny with high temperatures in the mid-20s.

Wednesday – mostly sunny with high temperatures nearing 30°F! Downright balmy compared to the beginning of the week.

Thursday – a complex scenario unfolds relating to a coastal storm anticipated to approach the area. Differences exist between major forecast models that would lead to a significant spread in snowfall totals from this event. The first scenario, and the more likely of the two, depicts a storm further offshore, favoring lighter snow. The second scenario shows one much closer to the coast, resulting in much heavier snow and even mixed precipitation. For now, siding with the more likely scenario that favors lighter snow would see only about an inch in the city. Temperatures during the day on Thursday should warm into the upper-20s.

The GFS model depicts a storm that passes farther offshore, which would lead to a light snowfall event for the city. This is the more likely scenario at this time.
Resulting ensemble forecast snowfall totals from the GFS. The mean here is only about .6″, reflecting the forecast scenario above.
The NAM shows a much more substantial snow event, with the storm passing significantly closer to the coast. The mean of this model calls for snowfall totals of nearly 7″, with a secondary cluster of ensemble members between 16-23″!

 

NYC Weekend Weather – Dec 8, 2017

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The weather headline for this weekend will be our first accumulating snow of the season! Aside from this, below average and cold temperatures will be in place throughout the weekend and well into next week. This persistent cold spell has a direct link to high pressure over the western US that has resulted in fires in California. Another chance for additional accumulating snow is possible early next week.

Rest of today – high temperatures in the low-40s with mostly cloudy skies. Snow beginning in the overnight hours into tomorrow.

Saturday – snow throughout the day, accumulations of largely between 2-4″ during the day expected in the city, but with higher totals moving east, in the 4-6″ range for parts of Queens, and Brooklyn. High temperatures in the low-30s.

A coastal storm will develop and strengthen off the Southeast coast as an upper level shortwave and a jet streak work to enhance it. The jet streak in particular will provide strong lift for the development of snow showers. Thermal profiles throughout the atmosphere in our region will support all snow. Model trends seem to continue nudging the track westward over the past couple of days. Further shifts west would result in higher snowfall totals, which are suggested by the GEFs plumes in the last image in this section that point a range of 6-8″ of snow for LGA.

Weather Prediction Center surface low tracks and clusters. Focus on the coastal low track. The mean track takes this storm very close to the 40°N 70°W benchmark, a location for coastal low centers that generally translates to robust snowfall for winter storms.

Sunday – an additional accumulation of an inch or so is forecast overnight Saturday as snow begins tapering off going into Sunday. As the low pulls away, winds will turn to the west and strengthen. High temperatures will actually be somewhat warmer in the upper-30s with mostly sunny skies.

Monday – mostly sunny skies again with high temperatures around 40°F.

NYC Weekend Weather – Nov 17, 2017

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A cool Friday and Friday night yields to a rainy, though milder weekend. A return to largely below normal temperatures to start the week. Looking ahead into next week, weather conditions should be fair and without disruptions for the busy travel days around Thanksgiving.

Rest of today – sunny, cool and windy with high temperatures in the upper-40s. Northwest winds 15-20 mph with higher gusts though diminishing as the day progresses.

Saturday – increasing clouds as a warm front attached to a low pressure center over the Great Lakes approaches the area. Increasing clouds as winds shift to a warmer and wetter southerly direction. Chances for rain increasing through the day, with mostly cloudy skies otherwise and high temperatures in the upper-50s.

Sunday – rain chances are highest overnight from Saturday into Sunday. Low temperatures should be on the warm side near 50°F. Rain continues into Sunday morning prior to the passage of the cold front pictured above. Once that cold front pushes through, clouds should gradually break. High temperatures are anticipated to reach in the mid-50s again. However, on the back side of the cold front, we’ll see fairly strong winds returning from the northwest with a large pressure gradient. This will lead to temperatures dropping back into the 40s by the evening.

Monday – sunny skies but much cooler again with high temperatures in the mid-40s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Nov 3, 2017

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This weekend’s weather will be a tale of contrasting temperatures and airmasses. The week ends with warm temperatures more than 10°F above normal. A cold front sweeps through and fall returns for the weekend itself, but another warm up takes place leading into Monday. Also, Daylight Saving Time ends at 2AM Sunday.

Rest of today – increasing clouds for the day. Warm with high temperatures in the mid-70s. Yesterday, a warm front pushed through, putting us in the warm sector associated with a low pressure now over northeastern Quebec.

Saturday – quite a different feel tomorrow once this cold front below moves through the area. Winds will become onshore from the east, bring much cooler air. High temperatures are expected to top out only in the upper-50s with sunny skies (around normal for this time of year).

Sunday – there’s a chance of showers overnight Saturday into Sunday associated with the next storm system to impact the area. An advancing warm front is expected to bring light, stratiform rain ahead of it. Temperatures will be warmer, in the mid-60s with mostly cloudy skies.

Monday – the familiar pattern of warm front followed by cold front continues Monday. We’ll again be in the warm sector with temperatures peaking at about 70°F. Rain should accompany the passage of this cold front.

NYC Special Weather Update: Tropical Depression Eighteen – Oct 28, 2017

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The National Hurricane Center announced that Tropical Depression Eighteen has formed over the northwestern Caribbean Sea just south of Isla de Juventud in Cuba. The formation of TD Eighteen has implications on the forecast for Sunday’s storm as a complex scenario is set to unfold.

Impacts: forecasters are anticipating a high wind, and heavy rain event coming up. Storm total rainfall of 2-4″ and possibly higher could lead to urban and small stream flooding. The amount of rainfall over a short period of time has led our local forecast office to issue flash flood watches for much of the region. Winds will pick up as well, backing from the south to southeast, east, and eventually to north and northwest. Wind gusts could become a problem for local airports and for poor travel conditions in general. Thunderstorms are a possibility as well.

Timing: Winds are already increase today, and cloud cover will do so as well as the day progresses. Chances for rain will increase in the overnight hours, probably after 2-3AM. The strongest wind gusts will actually come on the back side of the storm going into Monday as it intensifies and the pressure gradient increases.

Discussion: a complicated set up is unfolding with a longwave trough (on the left) draping from the Great Lakes into the Gulf of Meixco interacting with a developing closed low over the Tennessee Valley, and TD Eighteen. TD Eighteen is likely to strengthen into a tropical storm, which would be named Phillippe if it did form. The effect of this will be to provide a conveyor of warm and moist air from the tropics up to our area. This will help feed the developing non-tropical low forming over the southeast. This low will become the primary rainmaker, and the tropical system (whether a depression or storm) will eventually merge with it. Plenty of instability to fuel a growing storm! The pressure gradient will tighten as this storm strengthens and departs eastward, and that will be the reason for a gusty start to the work week.