Category Archives: Storms

NYC Weekend Weather – Hurricane Maria – Sep 22, 2017

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We have a superb weekend of weather coming up. Temperatures will be anomalously warm for this time of the year, with highs ranging in the mid-upper 80s. It will feel more like late July than late September. Excellent beach weather, if not for the continuing coastal impacts of Jose. The warm spell continues into next week. Our eyes turn towards Hurricane Maria, which after devastating Puerto Rico and Dominica, is now heading up the East Coast. Maria is not expected to make landfall, but it could still bring coastal impacts like Jose.

Rest of today – partly sunny with high temperatures around 80°F.

Saturday – mostly sunny, very warm, temperatures 10-15°F above average for this time of the year.

Sunday – high pressure remains in place with lots of sun and high temperatures again in the upper-80s.

Monday – sunny, temperatures in the upper-80s yet again.

 

Hurricane Maria

You can now see both Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose and Hurricane Maria in the same satellite image of the continental US. Because Jose has eroded the high pressure over the northwestern Atlantic, Maria will have a path to move northwards up along the East Coast. It does look like Maria will get picked up by a frontal boundary late in the week that pushes it out to sea though.

NYC Labor Day Weekend Weather, Eyes on Irma – Sep 1, 2017

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It will definitely feel like the end of summer this weekend as temperatures will be much below average for this time of the year. The remnants of Harvey are also likely to put a damper on weekend activities Saturday night through a decent chunk of Sunday. Labor Day Monday itself looks like a gem. In the long term, I’m keeping tabs up Hurricane Irma, which worries me with its potential to affect the East Coast.

Rest of today – cool, with a Canadian high pressure center to our north-northwest, we’ll feel a refreshing north wind that will diminish through the day. High temperatures are only forecast to hit 70ºF or so even with sunny skies, 10ºF+ below normal for this time of year.

Saturday – temperatures remain cool in the uppper-60s with an easterly onshore flow ahead of an approaching warm front associated with the remnants of Harvey. Overrunning clouds will move in before rain chances build up overnight.

Sunday – rain lingers into the day on Sunday before ending by the afternoon. Mostly cloudy with temperatures in the mid-70s as we get some warmer return flow behind the storm with high pressure setting up to our southwest.

Monday – the warming pattering continues with highs returning to around normal in the low-80s with sunny skies. This is the best day for your holiday weekend grilling, and should be excellent viewing conditions for the annual West Indian Day Parade and carnival.

 

Hurricane Irma – possible threat to the East Coast?

We’ve entered the peak of the hurricane season and right on the toes of Harvey we have Hurricane Irma which put on an impressive display of strengthening the last couple days wen it went from a tropical storm to Category 3 major hurricane. It’s weakened a slight bit but conditions are still favorable for it re-strengthen into a powerful Category 3 of 4 storm before making an approach on the Lesser Antilles.

What is concerning to me is the storm is forecast to take a jog to the southwest over the weekend. The further south and west this storm gets before it starts the process of curving back out to sea at a higher latitude, the greater the chance that it could impact the East Coast of the US. There is still a lot of time so things could definitely change, but it is worth noting that current forecasts favor a more southerly track, enhancing the risk to us. I’ve seen GFS model runs show the storm make direct landfall on the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. As of this morning, the GFS backed off of this type of scenario. It does bear watching though.

NYC Weather Update – Aug 7, 2017

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A pleasant Sunday gives way to a wet and cool start to the week. High pressure builds in as Monday’s storm system moves out of the area. The rest of the week, we’ll see below average temperatures, but mostly sunny conditions along with a more comfortable, drier airmass. This will be my last update for a couple of weeks as I’ll be traveling to Europe – I’ll miss out on the solar eclipse happening on August 21st, which I’ll give some details on in this post.

Rest of today – a low pressure center tracking near or over Long Island during the day today will bring multiple rounds of rain, which at times could be heavy. Conditions will deteriorate during the morning, and rains should pick up in the afternoon. A brief pause may occur before another round of heavy rain during the evening and overnight hours. A flash flood watch is in effect due to the possibility of upwards of 2″ of rain falling perhaps in short intervals. Temperatures will be cool with southeast winds off the ocean and clouds keeping things only in the low-mid 70s.

Tuesday – as this storm system pulls away, winds shift to the northwest and high pressure begins to build in. Tuesday should see partly sunny skies clearing up and high temperatures around 80°F.

Wednesday – nice crisp day on tap with high temperatures around 80°F again and lots of sun as high pressure remains in control.

Thursday – a notch warmer with high temperatures in the low-80s and mostly sunny skies.

 

Total Solar Eclipse of August 21st, 2017

This much anticipated astronomical event is approaching in 2 weeks time. The last total solar eclipse that would have been highly visible from a large portion of the continental United States dates back to March 7, 1970. This greatest magnitude of this eclipse traveled nearly directly over all the major cities of the Eastern Seaboard.

Path of the total solar eclipse of March 7, 1970

Unfortunately, this time around, we won’t be quite as lucky in New York City, but we’re still expecting around a .75 magnitude total solar eclipse peaking around 2:45PM on August 21st.  Regardless, it will be an impressive sight to behold as 3/4 of the sun will be blocked out by the moon transiting directly in front of it from our viewpoint. Even with cloudy skies, you should still notice an appreciable change in lighting during this eclipse event. Hope it stays sunny though!

NYC Weekend Weather – Jul 28, 2017

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After a couple days of average temperatures, this weekend sees a return to cool temperatures with a wet start to it all. Conditions improve Sunday, and high pressure builds but temperatures remain below normal until later next week.

Rest of today – increasing clouds as a coastal low begins to form off the Mid-Atlantic. Warm with high temperatures right around normal in the low-mid 80s. Rain should hold off until the overnight hours.

High resolution rapid refresh model runs don’t show significant rainfall until around 2AM EDT Saturday

Saturday – an unpleasant, raw, windy, rainy day more reminiscent of autumn or spring than late July. As the coastal low moves closer to us along a stalled frontal boundary, it will bring chances for moderate to heavy rain along with a stiff northeast wind around 25 mph. As a result, temperatures will be surpressed in the mid-70s. Rain chances taper off during the day as the low moves east.

Sunday – much nicer with plenty of sun and temperatures rebounding to around 80°F. Still will have a cooling influence of the weakening northeast winds.

Monday – high pressure builds and yields another decent day with high temperatures around 80°F, possibly higher with more sun.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jun 2, 2017

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This weekend will feature mostly sunny skies, seasonable, and pleasant conditions until late in the day Sunday when our next chance for rain moves in. The low pressure causing this next round of rain looks to linger well into mid-week next week, which will bring on several days of cool, cloudy, and rainy weather to contrast with the beginning of the weekend.

Rest of today – mostly sunny with some slight chance for scattered thunderstorms, most likely appearing west of NYC. High temperatures ranging in the mid-upper 70s.

Saturday – mild, pleasant, mostly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-70s. High pressure will be in control for a day.

Sunday – high pressure starts breaking down as the next storm system approaches. This storm system will be a complex and slow moving one. While the bulk of the moisture associated with this storm looks to stay offshore, we will still get multiple rounds of rain from it, beginning late Sunday. Temperatures will be a touch cooler in the low-70s with increasing clouds Sunday.

Monday – cloudy with temperatures in the low-70s, and periods of rain likely throughout the day. Kicks off a cooler and wetter than normal trend leading at least into mid-week.

NYC Weather Update – May 22, 2017

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Quite a contrast in temperatures this week with an active weather pattern that holds chances for precipitation nearly every day of the week. Temperatures will generally range a few degrees below normal. Looking ahead to Memorial Day weekend, weather could be a mixed bag with some rain chances for Sunday and Monday.

Rest of today – cool, cloudy, with steadier rains moving through the afternoon hours into the early evening accompanying the passage of a cold front. High temperatures around 60ºF.

Tuesday – drier with only a slight chance of showers late in the day as another weak disturbance moves by south of region. High temperature around 70ºF and mostly cloudy skies.

Wednesday – scattered showers possible throughout the day. High temperatures again near 70ºF.

Thursday – a warm front and an accompanying low pressure system pass over the area Thursday bringing another chance for widespread rain. Temperatures in the upper-60s under mostly cloudy skies.

 

 

NYC Weather Update – Apr 24, 2017

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Today through mid-week, we will see mostly cloudy weather, along with soaking rains Tuesday which will also feature temperatures much below normal. Later in the week and into the weekend, we will see a warm up into summer-like weather that should last into the weekend as well. A Bermuda high sets up, a pattern more typical of late June. I will be in Cuba until May 2nd so this will be my last update for the next week at a minimum.

Rest of today – cloudy, high temperatures in the low-60s. Rain developing late and into the overnight Tuesday.

Tuesday – soaking and steady rainfall accompanying a slow moving coastal storm looks set to impact the area for the entirety of Tuesday. Along with this rain, a raw east to northeast wind will make the high temperatures in the low-50s feel even chillier.

Wednesday – showers may linger as Tuesday’s storm slowly pulls away to the east. Temperatures rebound nicely into the mid-60s, could go a touch warmer if clouds break up a bit.

Thursday – a warming trend begins on Thursday with temperatures climbing into the low-70s and mostly sunny skies.

NYC Weekend Weather – Apr 21, 2017

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A cool and dreary end of the week leads into a continued stretch of slightly below average temperatures for the weekend. Temperatures remain on the cool side with chances for rain to start next week before a warm up in the second half of next week. Far off in the Central Atlantic, a rare April tropical storm (Arlene) has formed.

Rest of today – rains moved through overnight and lingering showers this morning should end within the next couple hours. Cloudy with high temperatures only in the upper-50s to around 60°F.

Saturday – despite winds turning to the north with high pressure moving in from the west, temperatures should still rebound into the low-60s. Partly to mostly cloudy skies.

Sunday – mostly cloudy to overcast with temperatures hovering around 60°F.

Monday – the next chance for rain comes in along with a developing coastal low that lingers through Tuesday. Timing of this coastal storm remains somewhat uncertain, so it could end up being somewhat of a pest early next week.

 

Rare April Tropical Storm
We’re still 2 full months off from the official start of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season, which makes the formation of the first named storm of the season even more of a meteorological oddity. Tropical Storm Arlene will spend its life churning up the waters of the Central Atlantic without any impacts on land. It’s still worth noting that this is only the second time since the dawn of the satellite era that a tropical storm has been detected in April.

TS Arlene is the tight circulation located at around 50° W, 40° N

NYC Weather Update – Apr 3, 2017

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wwwThe first week of April kicks off with multiple rounds of rain. Two separate storms are expected to bring drenching rains on Tuesday and Thursday. There may be some minor flooding concerns with 1″ of rain possible out of each system, on top of the rains we received last week.

Rest of today – cloudy, mild, with high temperatures in the upper-50s. Not a bad day for the Mets season opener.

Tuesday – late Monday, rain starts moving in ahead of an advancing warm front. Rain should begin around 10PM this evening and pick up in intensity overnight. Some thunderstorms are possible. Rain continues through most of the work day Tuesday, with some heavy rain possible. Mild again with high temperatures in the upper-50s.

Wednesday – brief respite between two storm systems, a gem of a spring day with high temperatures in the low-60s and mostly sunny to clear skies.

Thursday – temperatures cool off into the low-50s as the second storm system of the week impacts us and brings us yet another round of moderate to heavy rains.

 

NYC Blizzard Update #2 – Mar 13, 2017

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The track of the imminent nor’easter and blizzard has continue to trend west of earlier model runs. This has introduced increasing uncertainty as to overall snowfall totals along the immediate coastal areas along with possible wintry mix/freezing rain. On the other hand, confidence is increasing in heavy snow for areas north and west of the city, with snowfall totals 18″+ looking likely.

Impacts – heavy snow north and west of the city, snowfall accumulations in the interior 16-20″+ looking likely. Sharp gradient in the heaviest snowfall totals approaching the coast where wintry mix, freezing rain, and even plain rain could mix in during the early afternoon Tuesday. The exact location of the extent of warm air intrusion off the ocean will ultimately determine the difference between routine totals over 1 foot and areas that receive much lower snowfall totals. The difference in some cases could be a matter of mere miles. This line could fall in and around NYC itself. Still expecting a period of blizzard or near blizzard conditions for NYC during the course of this storm even if a transition to mixed precipitation does occur. Snowfall totals could still pile up close to a foot or over prior to this transition. The possibility of freezing rain and ice introduces an additional hazard on the roads and when coupled with strong winds of 30-35mph and gusts 45mph+ could result in power outages.

Timing – light snow should begin to fall early into the overnight hours, progressively growing in intensity. In the city, overnight accumulations of 3-6″ possible, with a sharp increase in totals north and west. Heavy snow with sleet and wintry mix during the morning and early afternoon in the city, all snow in points north and west. Blowing and drifting snow with blizzard conditions possible. Snow begins to wind down during the evening hours.

Caveats – any further movement of the storm track west would result in drastically lower snowfall totals for NYC and points east along the coast. Correspondingly, an eastward shift of the storm track would put NYC itself squarely in the bullseye for the heaviest snows.